About Japanese crewed spacecraft programs

[Pipcard]

During the period in which Japan had a bubble economy, their space program was highly ambitious. There was a project to have a manned mini-shuttle called "HOPE," or "H-II Orbiting Plane," similar to the European Hermes spaceplane. Images of the manned shuttle can be found in the JAXA digital archives. Then, the bubble collapsed, Japan went into economic stagnation (Lost Decade), and budgets were cut. The plan was downsized to a smaller, robotic vehicle known as HOPE-X (eXperimental), which would have been a cargo transport to the space station, but that got cancelled in 2004. It is claimed here that the final nail in the coffin for HOPE-X was a need for spy satellites over North Korea.

In the early 2000s, before the consolidation of Japan's space agencies into JAXA, there was a plan to develop a space capsule known as Fuji. The idea, as expressed in this paper, was to have a disposable space capsule instead of a reusable spaceplane for lower development and operating costs. The minimum system would have been a capsule with high sidewall angle to reduce G-forces, and a full system similar to the configuration of Soyuz. Flights involving lunar free-return trajectories as well as an open-source design. This was also cancelled. According to this person's research, the reason also involved cutting the budget in the face of Japan's economic situation to make room for spy satellites over North Korea. If the manned capsule program was planned in the 1990s instead of the more ambitious mini-shuttle, it could have survived.

In this article from 2002, Hideo Nagasu, who is the "former director of Japan's National Aerospace Laboratory," claims that Japan's post-WWII "pacifist constitution" hindered manned space development "because the reentry technology needed to bring astronauts home safely was too closely linked with intercontinental ballistic missiles." They still managed to launch OREX and HYFLEX, though. The article also claims that Japan became "more interested in human space flight" as a response to North Korea, contrary to what has been claimed previously in this post. The plan for a Japanese experiment module had been there since the 1980s, too (originally as part of Space Station Freedom).

More recently, a proposal to evolve the HTV into a crewed spacecraft was made in the late 2000s, it would have involved a Soyuz-like configuration, with orbital module, re-entry capsule, and service module). But during launch, the re-entry capsule would have been on the top (less mass for the launch escape system to support), and a "rail-and-wheel system" that would have re-arranged it into the Soyuz-like configuration.

In 2012, they announced plans to have either a capsule derived from HTV, or a Dream Chaser-sized mini-spaceplane, by 2022. But they didn't seem to follow through with that.

By this year, the planned HTV-X redesign offers a potential capability to carry a returnable capsule, although that only seems to be for cargo, and it too still remains at the PowerPoint stage.

Will there ever be a manned spacecraft launching from Japan?

[Eric Hedman]

Not any time soon.  Japan just slipped back into recession.

http://money.cnn.com/2015/11/15/news/economy/japan-economy-recession/

[Tywin]

The HTV7 is possible the intermediate evolution for a manned spacecraft?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kounotori_7

[Steven Pietrobon]

Japan is only spending 0.23% of its budget on space (¥211.11B out of ¥92.6T in 2013). It can easily press on the throttle a little bit harder and have their own crewed spacecraft if they want.

[Tywin]

Japan is only spending 0.23% of its budget on space (¥211.11B out of ¥92.6T in 2013). It can easily press on the throttle a little bit harder and have their own crewed spacecraft if they want.

And their economy look much better now:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-economy-inflation/japan-unveils-bullish-gdp-growth-estimates-for-fy2019-idUSKBN1JW05Q

I really hope, when they have, the H3 rocket, they will go to finance her manned spacecraft...

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/htvx_jaxa/status/1606212927786303488

For those who spend the New Year holidays at home, how about a poster #有人宇宙活動大全 covering the past and future of the #JAXA manned division? It's full of information, so if you read it, the New Year will be over in no time 🎍
It can be viewed from the following (When printing, please use A2 or larger with the poster function)
https://humans-in-space.jaxa.jp/news/item/002640/5a116cd14d4e6333b297ae6c626165a778cb18fc.pdf
#HTVX

[Vahe231991]

Japan is only spending 0.23% of its budget on space (¥211.11B out of ¥92.6T in 2013). It can easily press on the throttle a little bit harder and have their own crewed spacecraft if they want.

And their economy look much better now:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-economy-inflation/japan-unveils-bullish-gdp-growth-estimates-for-fy2019-idUSKBN1JW05Q

I really hope, when they have, the H3 rocket, they will go to finance her manned spacecraft...

JAXA alternately could sign a technological exchange agreement with Blue Origin for blueprints of the New Glenn to be used to help Japan develop a super-heavy lift launch vehicle that could orbit a Dream Chaser-like spaceplane incorporating elements of the HOPE-X project but also interplanetary spacecraft.

[Jim]

JAXA alternately could sign a technological exchange agreement with Blue Origin for blueprints of the New Glenn to be used to help Japan develop a super-heavy lift launch vehicle that could orbit a Dream Chaser-like spaceplane incorporating elements of the HOPE-X project but also interplanetary spacecraft.

No, BO couldn't and wouldn't.  There are ITAR issues with that.  Also, why would Blue Origin, much less any for profit company, give away such information?   Blue Origin would rather just sell them a launch service.

[jstrotha0975]

What about buying the license to build Falcon 9 and Heavy, once they are retired from service?

[Jim]

What about buying the license to build Falcon 9 and Heavy, once they are retired from service?

They have their own vehicles or capability to develop them

[woods170]

What about buying the license to build Falcon 9 and Heavy, once they are retired from service?

The Japanese did that only once, when they licensed Thor-Delta. But that was merely to kick-start their own rocket-building knowledge base and industry.

Neither are needed, now that they have an established knowledge base and industry, and thus there is no reason to license Falcon 9 and/or Falcon Heavy.
Also, such a license would only happen if SpaceX would actually agree to license Falcon 9 and/or Falcon Heavy. It is highly unlikely that SpaceX would ever agree to do so.

[Vahe231991]

JAXA alternately could sign a technological exchange agreement with Blue Origin for blueprints of the New Glenn to be used to help Japan develop a super-heavy lift launch vehicle that could orbit a Dream Chaser-like spaceplane incorporating elements of the HOPE-X project but also interplanetary spacecraft.

No, BO couldn't and wouldn't.  There are ITAR issues with that.  Also, why would Blue Origin, much less any for profit company, give away such information?   Blue Origin would rather just sell them a launch service.

JAXA is better off creating a super-heavy lift launch vehicle similar in appearance to the New Glenn that has two or three stages of equal diameter, and the hypothetical new Japanese super-heavy lift launch vehicle for orbiting a Dream Chaser-like spaceplane and launching interplanetary spacecraft could be christened "Takemikazuchi" after the Japanese thunder god (similar to the Vulcan being named after the Roman fire god Vulcan). If Mitusibishi got a contract to develop a Dream Chaser-like spaceplane, an appropriate name for it would be either "Hikari" or "Susanou".

[Coastal Ron]

JAXA is better off creating a super-heavy lift launch vehicle similar in appearance to the New Glenn that has two or three stages of equal diameter, and the hypothetical new Japanese super-heavy lift launch vehicle for orbiting a Dream Chaser-like spaceplane...

1. The global race is on to build the LAST expendable launch system, and I don't think Japan would like to win that race.

2. A "super-heavy" launch vehicle would be overkill for a Dream Chaser vehicle, so a waste of money overall.

3. Why are you getting into rocket design detail and specifying three stages? 

Too much speculation, not enough facts...

[Zed_Noir]

IMO. A domestic crewed spacecraft is never going to happen with the current and projected launch hardware that the Japanese have in development along with constrained launch opportunities from the current Tanegashima launch site.

Maybe the Japanese can developed a new 2-stage medium launcher fueled by kerosene or methane with a payload capacity of about 10 tonnes to LEO suitable to lofted a crew capsule carrying 2 to 3 persons. It should be small enough for relatively easy maritime launches and hopefully booster recoveries.

[Vahe231991]

JAXA is better off creating a super-heavy lift launch vehicle similar in appearance to the New Glenn that has two or three stages of equal diameter, and the hypothetical new Japanese super-heavy lift launch vehicle for orbiting a Dream Chaser-like spaceplane...

1. The global race is on to build the LAST expendable launch system, and I don't think Japan would like to win that race.

2. A "super-heavy" launch vehicle would be overkill for a Dream Chaser vehicle, so a waste of money overall.

3. Why are you getting into rocket design detail and specifying three stages? 

Too much speculation, not enough facts...

As for point 2, I meant to clarify that JAXA could propose an H3 variant designed to carry a Dream Chaser-like manned spaceplane. Still, I agree that Japan's financial prospects of developing a super-heavy lift launch vehicle of its own remain a pipe dream.