Yars - GIK-1 Plesetsk - October 22, 2025

[B. Hendrickx]

An unusual announcement by local authorities in Plesetsk three days ago:

https://vk.com/wall-188412964_20812
(translated)

Dear residents of the Plesetsk municipal district!

In connection with the launch of a space rocket from the territory of the 1st State Test Cosmodrome of the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation, we would like to inform you that being on the territory of the closed administrative-territorial formation Mirny and its restricted zone is a violation of Russian legislation, for which you may be held administratively or criminally liable.

From 20 to 30 October 2025, preventive restrictive measures are planned to be carried out in the launch site area and the surrounding territory in cooperation with the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the Federal Security Service of Russia, and the military police.

If citizens discover (identify) suspicious persons, vehicles, or UAVs, please immediately report them to law enforcement agencies by calling 8 (81832) 7-10-82, or to the cosmodrome's operational group by calling 8-911-674-84-85, 8(81834) 2-32-20, 8 (81834) 2-32-24.

There was also this related announcement earlier today by an environmental protection agency in the Arkhangelsk province:
https://eco29.ru/news/detail/rayon-padeniya-otdelyayushchikhsya-chastey-raket-siya-k-pusku-gotov/

In the framework of an upcoming rocket launch, the agency, together with a representative of the Plesetsk Cosmodrome, took part in a pre-launch flight over the Siya rocket impact zone. The flight took place on 18 October 2025 along the following route: RP Siya – Veshkoma village – Soyalskoe Lake – logging sites – mouth of the Sema River – Glazan River.

The purpose of the monitoring was to detect and, if necessary, warn people and organisations conducting economic activities in the impact area of the need to leave the area for the period of the upcoming rocket launch. The inspection of the territory was carried out at an altitude of 100-150 m at an average speed of 170-200 km/h. No people, economic activity or large gatherings of animals were found in the impact zone.

Based on the results of the survey, the commission concluded that the Siya impact area is ready for launch.

The agency warns of the danger of the Siya impact area, where rocket parts will fall between 20 and 30 October 2025.

Local authorities in the impact zone have issued this warning:
https://vk.com/club87456842

Attention all residents!
Dear friends, a space rocket launch is planned from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome in our territory!
The rocket launch will take place: from 20 October 2025 to 30 October 2025.
between 00:00 and 23:59.
 ‘Siya’ drop zone

So this looks like an unlimited launch window. The Siya impact zone is over 200 km northeast of Plesetsk. To the best of my knowledge, it has never been linked to any earlier space launch. In the attached Google Earth map, I've drawn a line between Plesetsk and Soyalskoe Lake, which appears to be under the flight path.

The launch azimuth lines up fairly well with these NOTAMs for rocket stage impacts in the Barents and Laptev seas:

NAVAREA XX 136/25
CHART RUS 10100.
BARENTS SEA POMORSKIY STRAIT.
1. ROCKET LAUNCHING 192100 UTC TO 302100 UTC OCT
NAVIGATION PROHIBITED IN TERRITORIAL WATERS
DANGEROUS OUTSIDE IN AREA BOUNDED BY:
69-17.0N 051-14.0E, 69-01.0N 052-02.0E,
68-19.0N 050-27.0E, 68-33.0N 049-48.0E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 302200 UTC OCT 25.=
NNNN

NAVAREA XX 131/25
ARCTIC OCEAN.
KARA SEA LAPTEV SEA.
CHART RUS 10102.
1. ROCKET LAUNCHING 0500 TO 1700 UTC
DAILY 20 TO 24 OCT RESERVE 28 OCT IN AREA
DANGEROUS TO NAVIGATION BOUNDED BY:
83-24.00N 096-39.00E, 83-17.24N 115-13.48E,
82-37.12N 115-58.48E, 81-39.00N 114-36.00E,
81-39.36N 104-09.36E, 81-21.36N 089-42.00E,
81-50.24N 087-38.36E, 82-47.24N 085-28.12E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 281800 UTC OCT 25.=
NNNN

The launch windows are not identical, so I'm not absolutely sure the NOTAMs are linked. Anyway, the coordinates are close (but not identical) to those seen for test flights of the Nudol ASAT missile. The Nudol tests did have shorter launch windows and had no impact area in the Arkhangelsk region (at least not one that was announced as far as I can tell). So this may well be something different. One possibility is a test of the air-launched Burevestnik ASAT system staged from Plesetsk's aerodrome. The latest updates on that are here:
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=45734.60

Whatever this is, it looks very unusual. The specific reference to a "space rocket" indicates it is not some missile test. One possible sign that this is an ASAT test are the unusual security measures announced by the Plesetsk authorities. If this is indeed such a test, the long launch window does suggest it is not aiming for a specific target in space.

[4353]

The first area lining up with Plesetsk points to launch into a ~76 degree inclined orbit.

The second area in the Arctic Sea is difficult to reconcile with this.

However: it could be that the first area refers to the launch of a target satellite from Plesetsk; and the second area then would be the launch area of the interceptor. Intercept need not be directly after launch, it could be after several orbits.

[Jrcraft]

This wouldn't be relating to Rokot-M from site 133/3 would it? Just thinking.

[owais.usmani]

Or maybe Sarmat ICBM test from Plesetsk?

[russianhalo117]

This wouldn't be relating to Rokot-M from site 133/3 would it? Just thinking.

Bumped to next year at the earliest.

[B. Hendrickx]

The Siya impact zone is over 200 km northeast of Plesetsk. To the best of my knowledge, it has never been linked to any earlier space launch.

Upon closer analysis, the Siya region turns out to be an impact zone for solid-fuel ICBMs, both Topol-M and Yars. The coordinates for the NOTAM in the Barents sea can also be linked to Yars. So it looks like this is a Yars launch and that the Plesetsk authorities have wrongly been referring to a "space rocket" (deliberately or not).   

[Jrcraft]

The Siya impact zone is over 200 km northeast of Plesetsk. To the best of my knowledge, it has never been linked to any earlier space launch.

Upon closer analysis, the Siya region turns out to be an impact zone for solid-fuel ICBMs, both Topol-M and Yars. The coordinates for the NOTAM in the Barents sea can also be linked to Yars. So it looks like this is a Yars launch and that the Plesetsk authorities have wrongly been referring to a "space rocket" (deliberately or not).

START-1M?

[B. Hendrickx]

START-1M?

Interesting thought, but the first flight is not expected until 2026 from Vostochnyy. There are no recent indications that it will fly from Plesetsk.

Another missile based on Topol-M/Yars is Bureya. It will have the same basic three stages as those missiles and the same impact zones. Stage 1 impacts in the Siya region in Arkhangelsk province (see the ellipse indicated as РП1 in the attached map) and stage 2 in the Pomorskiy Strait (see the second attachment), both of which will be used for the upcoming launch. Stage 3 impacts in the Kamchatka peninsula.

What sets Bureya apart from Topol-M and Yars is that in addition to the three lower stages it has a so-called "kick stage". Such a kick stage is also on Start-1M, where it sits atop the fourth or "apogee stage" (which Bureya doesn't have, so Bureya is essentially Start-1M minus the apogee stage). On Start-1M the kick stage is needed to increase the accuracy of payload orbit injection following burnout of the fourth stage, but what its purpose is on Bureya is unclear. It could potentially give Bureya orbital velocity. Environmental impact studies for Bureya launches from both Kapustin Yar and Plesetsk were published in 2023, so the missile may be ready to fly by now. If this is Bureya's first flight and the kick stage is indeed orbital, that could still explain why Plesetsk authorities are calling this a "space rocket". 

Yet another Topol/Yars derivative may be Aerostat, a long-range anti-missile system with possible ASAT capabilities. The project was started in 2013, but its current status is unclear. It may have been downgraded to a research project or canceled. Both Aerostat and Bureya are discussed in this thread:
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=54978.0
In the Bureya post I did mix up "kick stage" and "apogee stage" when comparing it to Start-1M. See the correction in the Start-1M thread:
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=61382.0

[Jrcraft]

START-1M?

Interesting thought, but the first flight is not expected until 2026 from Vostochnyy. There are no recent indications that it will fly from Plesetsk.

Another missile based on Topol-M/Yars is Bureya. It will have the same basic three stages as those missiles and the same impact zones. Stage 1 impacts in the Siya region in Arkhangelsk province (see the ellipse indicated as РП1 in the attached map) and stage 2 in the Pomorskiy Strait (see the second attachment), both of which will be used for the upcoming launch. Stage 3 impacts in the Kamchatka peninsula.

What sets Bureya apart from Topol-M and Yars is that in addition to the three lower stages it has a so-called "kick stage". Such a kick stage is also on Start-1M, where it sits atop the fourth or "apogee stage" (which Bureya doesn't have, so Bureya is essentially Start-1M minus the apogee stage). On Start-1M the kick stage is needed to increase the accuracy of payload orbit injection following burnout of the fourth stage, but what its purpose is on Bureya is unclear. It could potentially give Bureya orbital velocity. Environmental impact studies for Bureya launches from both Kapustin Yar and Plesetsk were published in 2023, so the missile may be ready to fly by now. If this is Bureya's first flight and the kick stage is indeed orbital, that could still explain why Plesetsk authorities are calling this a "space rocket". 

Yet another Topol/Yars derivative may be Aerostat, a long-range anti-missile system with possible ASAT capabilities. The project was started in 2013, but its current status is unclear. It may have been downgraded to a research project or canceled. Both Aerostat and Bureya are discussed in this thread:
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=54978.0
In the Bureya post I did mix up "kick stage" and "apogee stage" when comparing it to Start-1M. See the correction in the Start-1M thread:
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=61382.0

Start-1 flew twice from Plesetsk LC-158. And Start-1M launchers are slated for both Vostochny or Plesetsk. In either case, Topol launches are possible from the area. I look forward to seeing what occurs.

[Nicolas PILLET]

It was Yars.

https://ria.ru/20251022/trenirovku-2049837546.html

[B. Hendrickx]

The Yars launch was part of a major nuclear forces drill supervised by Putin. It also included the launch of a Sineva ballistic missile from the Barents Sea and firings of cruise missiles from Tu-95MS long-range bombers.

Here's video of the exercise, including some rarely seen footage of Yars inside its shelter just before launch.



The Plesetsk authorities' reference to a "space rocket" prior to launch may well have been a deliberate attempt to cover up the upcoming nuclear exercise.

I guess this thread can be moved to the "suborbital missions" section.


Moderator: Thread moved to Suborbital section.

[JulesVerneATV]

a described system on the news media they call it a 'Flying Chernobyl' it doesnt seem to have any application for Space Exploration

Now where would media get the idea of calling it a name like that?

There were similar systems studied in the 1950s and 1960s

'SLAM'
http://www.astronautix.com/s/slam.html

Underway its sonic boom would also wreak havoc on the ground, and it would leave a trail of contamination wherever it went. Once it had no more bombs to dispense, it would crash into the ground, leaving a highly radioactive wreckage trail. All in all, it was the ultimate apocalyptic weapon.

Pluto
https://web.archive.org/web/20220531173420/https://www.nnss.gov/docs/fact_sheets/DOENV_763.pdf

Military factions worried that Pluto would be dangerous to U.S. allies. Before it even began to drop bombs, Pluto would deafen, flatten, and irradiate people along its flight path.