SpaceX F9 : Starlink group 15-3 : VSFB SLC-4E : 9/10 May 2025 (00:19 UTC)

[ZachS09]

With Starlink 15-3 being scrubbed for today and rescheduled for tomorrow, potential doubleheader coming up.

9 hours apart, same day

Not happening anymore. Dang.

[zubenelgenubi]

SFN SpaceX puts Vandenberg launch on hold, May 3, Will Robinson-Smith

Update May 3, 9 p.m. EDT: SpaceX has put this launch on hold and no new launch date has been announced.
<snip>
SpaceX decided to forgo its launch opportunity on Saturday, but didn’t announce a reason for the scrub.

My guess is SpaceX will reschedule when they forecast winds within launch constraints.  Maybe May 5?

Weather Update:
SURFACE WINDS are high, and there are lots of clouds. From the satellite picture, it appears they are waiting for these clouds to move inland.

[catdlr]

SFN SpaceX puts Vandenberg launch on hold, May 3, Will Robinson-Smith

Update May 3, 9 p.m. EDT: SpaceX has put this launch on hold and no new launch date has been announced.
<snip>
SpaceX decided to forgo its launch opportunity on Saturday, but didn’t announce a reason for the scrub.

My guess is SpaceX will reschedule when they forecast winds within launch constraints.  Maybe May 5?

Weather Update:
SURFACE WINDS are high, and there are lots of clouds. From the satellite picture, it appears they are waiting for these clouds to move inland.

Yes, in my estimation, here is the regional forecast from Santa Barbara

https://www.ksby.com/weather/cool-and-windy-weekend-with-some-drizzle-in-the-interior-through-sunday

Here is the regional from LA

[Galactic Penguin SST]

Well it has been pushed way down to NET May 10 UTC by now:

R0129/25 NOTAMN
Q) SCIZ/QRDCA/IV/BO/W/000/999/4000S11000W715
A) SCIZ B) 2505100147 C) 2505150625
D) MAY 10-15 DLY BTN 0147-0625
E) ZONE ...D... SECT WEST PACIFIC DUE TO RE-ENTRY SPACEX
STARLINK 15-3
STAGE 2 REENTRY ACTIVITY. THE AREA IS BOUNDED BY GEO COORD:
3000S / 12153W
3000S / 12000W
2843S / 12000W
5909S / 09534W
5958S / 09905W
3000S / 12153W
INSTRUCTIONS: SANTIAGO OCEANIC CONTROL 10024 KHZ FANS 1A EQUIPPED
ACFT LOG ON SCEZ
F) SFC G) UNL

[zubenelgenubi]

Delay to May 10 UTC seems due to more than a weather forecast of launch criteria violations?

[randomname]

NGA notices for this launch.

042336Z MAY 25
HYDROPAC 1138/25(22,83).
EASTERN SOUTH PACIFIC.
DNC 06, DNC 07.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, SPACE DEBRIS
   0147Z TO 0625Z DAILY 09 THRU 15 MAY
   IN AREA BOUND BY
   59-58.00S 099-05.00W, 59-09.00S 095-34.00W,
   27-09.00S 120-43.00W, 27-59.00S 122-44.00W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 150725Z MAY 25.

050013Z MAY 25
NAVAREA XII 257/25(18,21).
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
CALIFORNIA.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, ROCKET LAUNCHING
   A. 100001Z TO 100433Z MAY, ALTERNATE
      0001Z TO 0433Z DAILY 11 THRU 15 MAY
      IN AREA BOUND BY
      34-39.00N 120-39.00W, 34-32.00N 120-38.00W,
      33-17.00N 119-34.00W, 32-45.00N 119-16.00W,
      32-26.00N 119-01.00W, 32-26.00N 118-59.00W,
      33-19.00N 119-27.00W, 34-41.00N 120-24.00W.
   B. 100001Z TO 100438Z MAY, ALTERNATE
      0001Z TO 0438Z DAILY 11 THRU 15 MAY
      IN AREA BOUND BY
      29-04.00N 117-27.00W, 29-04.00N 117-48.00W,
      30-25.00N 117-56.00W, 29-44.00N 117-03.00W,
      29-15.00N 116-59.00W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 150538Z MAY 25.

[Martin_G]

https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_spt.jsp:

SPACEX STARLINK 15-3, VANDENBERG SFB, CA
PRIMARY:   05/10      0000Z-0428Z
BACKUP:      05/11      0000Z-0428Z

[randomname]

One of the NGA notices, NAVAREA XII 257/25, posted for the 9th local 10th UTC date was canceled and marked as postponed around 19 hours ago.

062247Z MAY 25
NAVAREA XII 262/25(18,21).
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
CALIFORNIA.
CANCEL NAVAREA XII 257/25 AND THIS MSG,
OPERATIONS POSTPONED.

Two hours later, this NGA notice was sent for the launch:

070023Z MAY 25
NAVAREA XII 263/25(18,21).
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
CALIFORNIA.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, ROCKET LAUNCHING
   A. 092359Z TO 100433Z MAY, ALTERNATE
      2359Z TO 0433Z DAILY 10 THRU 15 MAY
      IN AREA BOUND BY
      34-39.00N 120-39.00W, 34-32.00N 120-38.00W,
      33-17.00N 119-34.00W, 32-45.00N 119-16.00W,
      32-26.00N 119-01.00W, 32-26.00N 118-59.00W,
      33-19.00N 119-27.00W, 34-41.00N 120-24.00W.
   B. 092359Z TO 100438Z MAY, ALTERNATE
      2359Z TO 0438Z DAILY 10 THRU 15 MAY
      IN AREA BOUND BY
      29-04.00N 117-27.00W, 29-04.00N 117-48.00W,
      30-25.00N 117-56.00W, 29-44.00N 117-03.00W,
      29-15.00N 116-59.00W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 150538Z MAY 25.

And then half an hour ago, this NGA notice was also sent:

071742Z MAY 25
NAVAREA XII 265/25(18, 21).
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
CALIFORNIA.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, ROCKET LAUNCHING
   A. 092359Z TO 100433Z MAY,
      ALTERNATE 2359Z TO 0433Z DAILY
      10 THRU 15 MAY IN AREA BOUND BY
      34-39.00N 120-39.00W, 34-32.00N 120-38.00W,
      33-17.00N 119-34.00W, 32-45.00N 119-16.00W,
      32-26.00N 119-01.00W, 32-26.00N 118-59.00W,
      33-19.00N 119-27.00W, 34-41.00N 120-24.00W.
   B. 092359Z TO 100438Z MAY,
      ALTERNATE 2359Z TO 0438Z DAILY
      10 THRU 15 MAY IN AREA BOUND BY
      29-04.00N 117-27.00W, 29-24.00N 117-48.00W,
      30-25.00N 117-56.00W, 29-44.00N 117-03.00W,
      29-15.00N 116-59.00W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 150538Z MAY 25.

[zubenelgenubi]

https://celestrak.org/NORAD/elements/supplemental/
Supplemental GP Element Sets
Current as of 2025 May 07 18:16:40 UTC (Day 127)

Starlink G15-3 Pre-Launch   
Derived from a pre-launch Starlink-G15-3 state vector, provided by SpaceX. SupGP data is provided for the entire stack, as well as one for a single satellite.

Launch: 2025-05-10 00:00:00 UTC.
Deploy: 2025-05-10 01:02:39.420 UTC.
Launch window: 2025-05-10 00:00:00 UTC to 2025-05-10 04:00:00 UTC

[randomname]

One of the two identical new notices sent earlier has been canceled and was sent in error.

072025Z MAY 25
NAVAREA XII 266/25(18,21).
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
CALIFORNIA.
CANCEL NAVAREA XII 263/25 AND THIS MSG,
MSG PROMULGATED IN ERROR.

[GewoonLukas_]

The mission page is back online. It was taken down after SpaceX delayed the mission.

SpaceX is targeting Friday, May 9 for a Falcon 9 launch of 26 Starlink satellites to low-Earth orbit from Space Launch Complex 4 East (SLC-4E) at Vandenberg Space Force Base in California. Liftoff is targeted for 5:00 p.m. PT, with backup opportunities available until 7:21 p.m. PT. If needed, additional opportunities are available on Saturday, May 10 starting at 5:00 p.m. PT.

A live webcast of this mission will begin about five minutes prior to liftoff, which you can watch here and on X @SpaceX. You can also watch the webcast on the new X TV app.

This will be the 14th flight for the first stage booster supporting this mission, which previously launched Crew-7, CRS-29, PACE, Transporter-10, EarthCARE, NROL-186, Transporter-13, and six Starlink missions. Following stage separation, the first stage will land on the Of Course I Still Love You droneship, which will be stationed in the Pacific Ocean.

There is the possibility that residents of Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo, and Ventura counties may hear one or more sonic booms during the launch, but what residents experience will depend on weather and other conditions.

https://www.spacex.com/launches/mission/?missionId=sl-15-3

[zubenelgenubi]

https://celestrak.org/NORAD/elements/supplemental/
Supplemental GP Element Sets
Current as of 2025 May 08 22:44:06 UTC (Day 128)

Starlink G15-3 Pre-Launch   
Derived from a pre-launch Starlink-G15-3 state vector, provided by SpaceX. SupGP data is provided for the entire stack, as well as one for a single satellite.

Launch: 2025-05-10 00:00:00 UTC.
Deploy: 2025-05-10 01:02:39.420 UTC.
Launch window: 2025-05-10 00:00:00 UTC to 2025-05-10 00:07:39 UTC.

Backup Launch Opportunity #1   
Launch: 2025-05-10 00:11:40 UTC.
Deploy: 2025-05-10 01:14:19.420 UTC.
Launch window: 2025-05-10 00:11:40 UTC to 2025-05-10 00:17:39 UTC.

Backup Launch Opportunity #2   
Launch: 2025-05-10 00:19:50 UTC.
Deploy: 2025-05-10 01:22:29.420 UTC.
Launch window: 2025-05-10 00:19:50 UTC to 2025-05-10 00:20:49 UTC.

Backup Launch Opportunity #3   
Launch: 2025-05-10 00:30:40 UTC.
Deploy: 2025-05-10 01:33:19.420 UTC.
Launch window: 2025-05-10 00:30:40 UTC to 2025-05-10 00:34:49 UTC.

Backup Launch Opportunity #4   
Launch: 2025-05-10 02:04:20 UTC.
Deploy: 2025-05-10 03:06:59.420 UTC.
Launch window: 2025-05-10 02:04:20 UTC to 2025-05-10 02:06:59 UTC.

Backup Launch Opportunity #5   
Launch: 2025-05-10 02:13:10 UTC.
Deploy: 2025-05-10 03:15:49.420 UTC.
Launch window: 2025-05-10 02:13:10 UTC to 2025-05-10 02:14:29 UTC.

Backup Launch Opportunity #6   
Launch: 2025-05-10 02:20:00 UTC.
Deploy: 2025-05-10 03:22:39.420 UTC.
Launch window: 2025-05-10 02:20:00 UTC to 2025-05-10 02:21:19 UTC.

[catdlr]

I'll provide a weather update about six hours before launch to get the best winds possible. We just got rid of a cut-off low that lingered around the Four Corners area, giving us wrap-around instability. A Pacific High has now moved in, bringing warm and clear skies for today; it should be the same tomorrow, but I'll check in later.

[Steven Pietrobon]

PDF of updated online press kit . No link to livestream yet.

[Galactic Penguin SST]

https://celestrak.org/NORAD/elements/supplemental/
Supplemental GP Element Sets
Current as of 2025 May 08 22:44:06 UTC (Day 128)

Starlink G15-3 Pre-Launch   
Derived from a pre-launch Starlink-G15-3 state vector, provided by SpaceX. SupGP data is provided for the entire stack, as well as one for a single satellite.

Launch: 2025-05-10 00:00:00 UTC.
Deploy: 2025-05-10 01:02:39.420 UTC.
Launch window: 2025-05-10 00:00:00 UTC to 2025-05-10 00:07:39 UTC.

Backup Launch Opportunity #1   
Launch: 2025-05-10 00:11:40 UTC.
Deploy: 2025-05-10 01:14:19.420 UTC.
Launch window: 2025-05-10 00:11:40 UTC to 2025-05-10 00:17:39 UTC.

Backup Launch Opportunity #2   
Launch: 2025-05-10 00:19:50 UTC.
Deploy: 2025-05-10 01:22:29.420 UTC.
Launch window: 2025-05-10 00:19:50 UTC to 2025-05-10 00:20:49 UTC.

Backup Launch Opportunity #3   
Launch: 2025-05-10 00:30:40 UTC.
Deploy: 2025-05-10 01:33:19.420 UTC.
Launch window: 2025-05-10 00:30:40 UTC to 2025-05-10 00:34:49 UTC.

Backup Launch Opportunity #4   
Launch: 2025-05-10 02:04:20 UTC.
Deploy: 2025-05-10 03:06:59.420 UTC.
Launch window: 2025-05-10 02:04:20 UTC to 2025-05-10 02:06:59 UTC.

Backup Launch Opportunity #5   
Launch: 2025-05-10 02:13:10 UTC.
Deploy: 2025-05-10 03:15:49.420 UTC.
Launch window: 2025-05-10 02:13:10 UTC to 2025-05-10 02:14:29 UTC.

Backup Launch Opportunity #6   
Launch: 2025-05-10 02:20:00 UTC.
Deploy: 2025-05-10 03:22:39.420 UTC.
Launch window: 2025-05-10 02:20:00 UTC to 2025-05-10 02:21:19 UTC.

And now updated:

Starlink G15-3 Pre-Launch
Derived from a pre-launch Starlink-G15-3 state vector, provided by SpaceX. SupGP data is provided for the entire stack, as well as one for a single satellite.

Launch: 2025-05-10 00:03:40 UTC.
Deploy: 2025-05-10 01:06:19.420 UTC.
Launch window: 2025-05-10 00:03:40 UTC to 2025-05-10 00:07:39 UTC.

Backup Launch Opportunity #1
Launch: 2025-05-10 00:11:50 UTC.
Deploy: 2025-05-10 01:14:29.420 UTC.
Launch window: 2025-05-10 00:11:50 UTC to 2025-05-10 00:17:39 UTC.

Backup Launch Opportunity #2
Launch: 2025-05-10 00:19:50 UTC.
Deploy: 2025-05-10 01:22:29.420 UTC.
Launch window: 2025-05-10 00:19:50 UTC to 2025-05-10 00:20:49 UTC.

Backup Launch Opportunity #3
Launch: 2025-05-10 00:30:40 UTC.
Deploy: 2025-05-10 01:33:19.420 UTC.
Launch window: 2025-05-10 00:30:40 UTC to 2025-05-10 00:34:49 UTC.

Backup Launch Opportunity #4
Launch: 2025-05-10 02:04:50 UTC.
Deploy: 2025-05-10 03:07:29.420 UTC.
Launch window: 2025-05-10 02:04:50 UTC to 2025-05-10 02:06:59 UTC.

Backup Launch Opportunity #5
Launch: 2025-05-10 02:13:10 UTC.
Deploy: 2025-05-10 03:15:49.420 UTC.
Launch window: 2025-05-10 02:13:10 UTC to 2025-05-10 02:14:29 UTC.

Backup Launch Opportunity #6
Launch: 2025-05-10 02:20:00 UTC.
Deploy: 2025-05-10 03:22:39.420 UTC.
Launch window: 2025-05-10 02:20:00 UTC to 2025-05-10 02:21:19 UTC.

Edit/add:
https://www.spacex.com/launches/mission/?missionId=sl-15-3

SpaceX is targeting Friday, May 9 for a Falcon 9 launch of 26 Starlink satellites to low-Earth orbit from Space Launch Complex 4 East (SLC-4E) at Vandenberg Space Force Base in California. Liftoff is targeted for 5:03 p.m. PT, with backup opportunities available until 7:21 p.m. PT. If needed, additional opportunities are available on Saturday, May 10 starting at 5:00 p.m. PT.

[mto]

Link to livestream

https://x.com/i/broadcasts/1YqKDZXLYnVJV

[catdlr]

Here is a consolidated post of available video links for this launch:

SpaceX direct live broadcast on Twitter:  https://x.com/i/broadcasts/1YqKDZXLYnVJV

SpaceX Re-broadcast alternatives on YouTube: 
Space Affairs:  https://youtube.com/watch?v=7l4kQRXuufY

There is no planned NSF Live coverage, alternate Pre-Launch Coverage:  https://youtube.com/watch?v=3atVfcbnKJA

Replay supplied by The Space Devs (15 min after the broadcast end):  https://youtube.com/@thespacedevs/videos

Summary Video provided by SciNews (15 min after the broadcast ends):  https://youtube.com/@SciNewsRo/videos

Launch Ground Video (from local resident in Santa Barbara - I'll post if available)

Fleet Booster Number:  https://twitter.com/BoosterSpX

[catdlr]

Weather Update:

905
FXUS66 KLOX 091625
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
925 AM PDT Fri May 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...09/920 AM.

High pressure aloft will continue a warming trend across the
region into Saturday. The hottest temperatures will be away from
the coast into the valleys, foothills, mountains, and deserts.
Closer to the coast, onshore flow with areas of fog will keep
temperatures cooler. Onshore flow will strengthen next week and
bring much cooler conditions with low clouds and fog pushing back
into the valleys. There is a chance of drizzle or light showers
next Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...09/924 AM.

***UPDATE***

High pressure aloft has arrived and has squashed the marine layer
to under 500 feet, resulting in areas of dense fog near the coast.
Many beach locations may remain foggy
most of the day, with temperatures there only in the low 60s.
Meanwhile, the heat is on for inland areas and mountains, where
Highs in the 90s to around 100 are expected today and Saturday.

Local Weather from KBSY Santa Barbara:
https://www.ksby.com/weather/todays-forecast/temps-will-soar-into-the-upper-90s-to-close-the-week-cooler-temps-to-follow

[mto]

Slight delay
https://www.spacex.com/launches/mission/?missionId=sl-15-3

SpaceX is targeting Friday, May 9 for a Falcon 9 launch of 26 Starlink satellites to low-Earth orbit from Space Launch Complex 4 East (SLC-4E) at Vandenberg Space Force Base in California. Liftoff is targeted for 5:19 p.m. PT, with backup opportunities available until 7:21 p.m. PT. If needed, additional opportunities are available on Saturday, May 10 starting at 5:00 p.m. PT.

Edit/add
https://celestrak.org/NORAD/elements/supplemental/

Backup Launch Opportunity #2
Launch: 2025-05-10 00:19:50 UTC.
Deploy: 2025-05-10 01:22:29.420 UTC.
Launch window: 2025-05-10 00:19:50 UTC to 2025-05-10 00:20:49 UTC.

[catdlr]

https://twitter.com/NASASpaceflight/status/1920997399582986654