Heads up, central Florida! (Hurricane Milton, October 2024)

[laszlo]

Not being pedantic here, just want to prevent confusion among readers, especially non-USA and younger ones. It's Cape Canaveral and Kennedy Space Center (KSC). It was Cape Kennedy for a 10-year period after his assassination, but was officially renamed back to Cape Canaveral in 1973.

Again, I'm not trying to be pedantic; this is too serious a subject for that. This is so that readers who are unaware of the history of the names looking at National Hurricane Center bulletins will be able to correctly discern which geographical features are being talked about.

[Norm38]

NOAA has the eye going right over the Cape Thursday morning.

[eeergo]

Perhaps more importantly, wind speed probability charts show >50% chance of >50 kt winds and >80% chance of tropical storm force winds there.

[Lee Jay]

The predictions now are for a gradual weakening but also a gradual enlargement.  Most of the models have landfall at or just north of Tampa Bay at something near cat-4 level.  As usual, the likely biggest killer will be water, both surge and rain but a cat-4 level of wind will wipe out a lot of stuff and thus get a lot of debris entrained in the air, which is also deadly.

FYI, most humans cannot stand up in 80mph wind.  By 100mph, even being on your knees is tough.  I've been in 110 and I was on my chest and I've been in 140 and it will pick up things like fully loaded trailers and cargo containers.  Most people overestimate the wind speed they are standing in by a factor of two or so.

[ajmarco]

From the 0900 UTC wind update.

[Lee Jay]

If you look at the linked image, you can see why Tampa Bay could get a huge surge, especially if timing with the tides and location end up as a worst case.  All that purple on-shore flow will push water up into the bay and that will combine with the low pressure to make a large increase in sea level.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2024100806/hwrf_mslp_wind_14L_18.png

[ajmarco]

If you look at the linked image, you can see why Tampa Bay could get a huge surge, especially if timing with the tides and location end up as a worst case.  All that purple on-shore flow will push water up into the bay and that will combine with the low pressure to make a large increase in sea level.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2024100806/hwrf_mslp_wind_14L_18.png

See NOAA graphic for that.

Source: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/092140.shtml?peakSurge#contents

[deltaV]

Perhaps more importantly, wind speed probability charts show >50% chance of >50 kt winds and >80% chance of tropical storm force winds there.

Still showing about 20% chance of hurricane force winds at the Cape: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/152937.shtml?hwind120#wcontents.

[redneck]

I'm about halfway between coasts and expect to be in the bulls eye Wednesday evening to early Thursday. Seems like a cat2 or strong cat1 by then. Should be interesting here, but hopefully less interesting by the time it .reaches the space coast.

[Lee Jay]

I'm about halfway between coasts and expect to be in the bulls eye Wednesday evening to early Thursday. Seems like a cat2 or strong cat1 by then. Should be interesting here, but hopefully less interesting by the time it .reaches the space coast.

I'm still thinking the space coast will see 80-100mph gusts, excluding any tornadic activity that develops.  Of course, it's just a prediction...

[jstrotha0975]

According to the National Hurricane Center Milton is back to a Cat 5.

[Lee Jay]

They're warning Tampa of the largest storm surge there since 1848.  I'm guessing there are a few more people and structures there now than then.  If you're there, especially at a low level and near the water, you might consider leaving or at least getting to higher ground inland aqay from the bay.

The storm surge on the space coast is predicted to be a more modest 2-6 feet.

[Lee Jay]

According to the National Hurricane Center Milton is back to a Cat 5.

165 knots in the last pass.  Yikes.  A hypothetical cat-6 might be at around 167 knots.

The models are struggling to predict intensity more than track right now.

[catdlr]

[catdlr]

[Lee Jay]

The expected rain for the space coast has increased, now up to 6-18 inches all the way to the Cape along the I-4 from one coast to the other.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/spacex/status/1843797123420303789

In addition to the thousands (>10k) of Starlink kits we are delivering in response to Hurricane Helene, the @Starlink team and @TMobile activated our Direct to Cell satellites to provide emergency alerts for all phones and carriers of those in affected areas.

The @FCC has also rapidly approved emergency special temporary authority for coverage in Florida ahead of Hurricane Milton.
 
We have now enabled basic texting (SMS) for those on T-Mobile phones in hurricane affected areas. Text messages have already been sent and received. You can text loved ones, text 911 and continue to receive emergency alerts.
 
If a phone connects to a Starlink satellite, it will have 1 to 2 bars of signal and show "T-Mobile SpaceX" in the network name. Users may have to manually retry text messages if they don't go through at first, as this is being delivered on a best-effort basis. The service works best outdoors, and occasionally works indoors near a window.

[catdlr]

The current prediction is that the hurricane patch will drop slightly south of the Cape.

[Lee Jay]

The current prediction is that the hurricane patch will drop slightly south of the Cape.

And slightly south of Tampa - unlike the model predictions yesterday.

[catdlr]

https://twitter.com/EricBurrisWESH/status/1844029224165818641

The NHC has just issued their 11am #Milton advisory