Heads up, central Florida! (Hurricane Milton, October 2024)

[Lee Jay]

It's looking more and more probable that Milton will bring half a foot of rain (or more) Tuesday-Wednesday next week.  Make preparations if you are in the probable path and there's anything you can actually do to prepare.

[catdlr]

It's looking more and more probable that Milton will bring half a foot of rain (or more) Tuesday-Wednesday next week.  Make preparations if you are in the probable path and there's anything you can actually do to prepare.

[Lee Jay]

The spread in the models on this thing is a little nuts - central pressure from 993mb to 920mb(!).  So weak hurricane up to cat-4.  All the models do predict a lot of rain along the path and most of the paths are now between Tampa and the Panhandle.

Just keep yourselves safe, okay?

[Lee Jay]

3 models are now predicting a cat-5 of 140-160kts at landfall.  3 others are predicting cat-2 to cat-4.  The highest model is predicting 900mb central pressure at landfall.  Ouch, if it happens.

[StraumliBlight]

Port Canavaral, Jacksonville and Fernandina just updated their status.

Oceangoing vessels greater than 500 GT ITC, including oceangoing tugs and barges greater than 500 GT ITC, already in port or arriving during PORT CONDITION X-RAY shall continue with preparations and safely depart the port before the setting of PORT CONDITION ZULU.

EDIT: Updated on October 8th to prepare for shutdown.

[catdlr]

[redneck]

Looks like heading right for my house.  Going to be a deeper swamp shortly.

[spacenut]

Florida has more sandy soil and drains the water away better than inland like the hurricane hitting Georgia, N and S Carolina.  Red clay on the Piedmont plateau holds water and becomes mud causing mud slides.  The storm surge will cause heavy flooding along the coast and the rivers going to the coast in Florida.  Most homes in Florida built in the last 20-30 years are built to withstand high winds in Florida.  They still have a lot of mobile homes though. 

Cape Kennedy, the VAB cannot withstand winds over about 140-150 mph.  The metal covering will begin to peal off.  This may be a big one, but it is coming from the west and has to cross Florida to get to Cape Kennedy.  I hope in goes further south to miss the most populated areas of central Florida. 

[Lee Jay]

If it hits just wrong, in location and timed with the tides, Tampa Bay could see 20+ feet of surge.

This warning from NHC is interesting.

"RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals up to 15 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding."

[StraumliBlight]

13:00 UTC Update

Data from both Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Milton has strengthened to a category 4 hurricane. The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 150 mph (240 km/h). Milton is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Data from the aircraft also indicate that the minimum pressure has fallen to 940 mb (27.76 inches).

[Lee Jay]

By the way, this thing has slowed down and eye landfall is now expected Wednesday evening rather than morning.  There will be lots of effects before that, including rain and tornados on the West coast of Florida.

[Lee Jay]

This one isn't messing around.  If I were in or around Tampa, I'd be trying to be elsewhere.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hmon/2024100712/hmon_mslp_wind_14L_23.png


From the hurricane hunters:
912mb central pressure
158kts sustained


Ouch.

[Spiceman]

Sweet jeez. That's a monster, intensifying like crazy. Take care of yourself, floridian NSF members !

[deltaV]

Cape Kennedy, the VAB cannot withstand winds over about 140-150 mph.  The metal covering will begin to peal off.  This may be a big one, but it is coming from the west and has to cross Florida to get to Cape Kennedy.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/152801.shtml?tswind120#wcontents shows there's a roughly 80% chance of at least tropical storm force winds at the Cape. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/152801.shtml?hwind120#wcontents shows there's a roughly 20% chance of hurricane force winds at the Cape.  So most likely (60% chance) there will be tropical storm force winds but not hurricane force winds. From the "peak wind threat" chart in https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2024-10-07-hurricane-milton-forecast-florida-storm-surge-wind-flooding the Cape should plan for at most 74-110 mph winds (64-96 knots, i.e. category I or II hurricane). So the VAB is probably safe against catastrophic damage. [Edit: according to that chart it will be worse (110+ mph) for parts of the west coast of Florida such as Tampa.]

From https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/152801.shtml?cone#contents and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/071452.shtml it's clear why stronger winds aren't expected: the hurricane will reach the Cape at around 9 am CDT Thursday = 1400 Z and at that time it will have weakened with peak wind speed only around 85 knots (interpolating).

Edit: also the Cape may see 3-5' of storm surge, 3-5" of rain and other parts of Florida will see much worse.

[JayWee]

Seems the latest forecast is much worse - most of the Florida peninsula being under Hurricane warning.

[deltaV]

Seems the latest forecast is much worse - most of the Florida peninsula being under Hurricane warning.

Everything in my last message is still accurate with the latest forecast (#11 at 5 pm EDT Monday) except the storm surge at the Cape is down slightly to 2-4'.

[ajmarco]

Winds are currently all over the place for Cocoa Beach & Patrick SFB:
Currently from Weds to Thurs (Chance of minimum 1 minute sustained):
34 kt (39 mph / 63 kph) - 81%
50 kt (58 mph / 93 kph) - 46%
64 kt (74 mph / 11 kph) - 23%


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT4+shtml/072057.shtml?

[catdlr]

5 p.m. Updated: Oct 7, 2024:

[astrolukas2023]

ISS overflight of Hurricane Milton (Cat. 5)

[catdlr]

ISS overflight of Hurricane Milton (Cat. 5)

https://youtube.com/watch?v=oeoeTUXH0GY

Don't use click-bait channels when you can get a much better resolution from the NASA site.  Also, there is a General Thread already going with this storm in which your post should have been placed.

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=61629.0