Author Topic: SpaceX progress towards a 144 launch year in 2024  (Read 124633 times)

Online ZachS09

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 144 launch year in 2024
« Reply #460 on: 10/01/2024 01:03 pm »
LES presence/absence/operation is irrelevant. If your main engine is not conducting burns as commanded, then the first thing to do is to figure out why it did that and rule out that it cannot happen in other stages of flight.
This could be something unique to disposal burns, or it could be an issue that could occur at any time but just happened to luckily crop up in a disposal burn this time. If it's the former, then RTF can be as rapid as with the last two F9 standdowns. If it's the latter then the issue needs to be resolved before RTF which will take longer.

I didn't mean to make an irrelevant point. I was just trying to back up king1999's statement of the crew not being at risk. But since it was irrelevant, I deleted every post of mine related to the LES. Sorry for clogging up the thread with something not related to SpaceX aiming for 144 launches this year.
Liftoff for St. Jude's! Go Dragon, Go Falcon, Godspeed Inspiration4!

Online catdlr

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 144 launch year in 2024
« Reply #461 on: 10/01/2024 01:27 pm »
There is nothing new in this video, but at least an informed local news update on the current issue:

Quote
SpaceX pauses Falcon 9 launches after rocket second-stage anomaly

It's Tony De La Rosa, ...I don't create this stuff, I just report it.

Online Comga

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 144 launch year in 2024
« Reply #462 on: 10/07/2024 06:42 pm »
SpaceX's 2024 record after the first launch of the fourth calendar quarter.
(This simple spreadsheet tracking only updates after each launch.)
With three stand-downs, two very brief, the projection for 2024 is at 120, well short of 144.
And extra graph below expands the "Launches in preceding 12 months".
It reached 123 by the end of June, but has been stuck at or below 125.
Looks like SpaceX needs another breakthrough to push beyond this
and good luck with the remainder of the 2024 hurricane season and the FAA anomaly resolution.
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline deltaV

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 144 launch year in 2024
« Reply #463 on: 10/08/2024 03:09 am »
With three stand-downs, two very brief, the projection for 2024 is at 120, well short of 144.

120 launches ain't bad. In fact that appears to be more than any US company has ever launched in a calendar year, including SpaceX itself.

Offline AmigaClone

Re: SpaceX progress towards a 144 launch year in 2024
« Reply #464 on: 10/08/2024 08:03 am »
With three stand-downs, two very brief, the projection for 2024 is at 120, well short of 144.

120 launches ain't bad. In fact that appears to be more than any US company has ever launched in a calendar year, including SpaceX itself.

To put things in perspective, up to 2023 no country has launched 120 orbital missions in a year. Outside of the Falcon 9 family there has been only one orbital launch family with more than 60 launches in a year. That was done by the R7 family in the late 1970s to early 1980s

Offline david1971

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 144 launch year in 2024
« Reply #465 on: 10/08/2024 03:16 pm »
With three stand-downs, two very brief, the projection for 2024 is at 120, well short of 144.

120 launches ain't bad. In fact that appears to be more than any US company has ever launched in a calendar year, including SpaceX itself.

To put things in perspective, up to 2023 no country has launched 120 orbital missions in a year. Outside of the Falcon 9 family there has been only one orbital launch family with more than 60 launches in a year. That was done by the R7 family in the late 1970s to early 1980s

Below is a segment of one of my posts from 2022 (actually, about 25 months ago).  We are spoiled.  The only thing that even comes close to the current numbers is peak Soviet activity.



"At 39, I think Falcon 9 now holds the American record for successful orbital launches in a year.

(From Ed's site)
Years that Atlas had 16+ successful orbital launches (along with failures):
1962         16(3)
1964         18(3)
1965         19(5)
1966         33(3)

Thor/Delta:
1960     21(7)       
1961     23(7)       
1962     38(4)       
1963     29(5)       
1964     32(4)       
1965     33(2)       
1966     24(2)       
1967     28(0)     
1968     21(2)     
1969     22(2)         
1970     16(0)"
I flew on SOFIA four times.

Online catdlr

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 144 launch year in 2024
« Reply #466 on: 10/09/2024 08:45 pm »
https://twitter.com/Alexphysics13/status/1843989854356680793

Quote
SpaceX launched 98 times in 2023. The company's next launch in the schedule, Starship's fifth flight, will be SpaceX's 98th launch in 2024.

There are still two and a half months remaining in the year
5:20 AM · Oct 9, 2024
It's Tony De La Rosa, ...I don't create this stuff, I just report it.

Offline alugobi

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 144 launch year in 2024
« Reply #467 on: 10/09/2024 10:40 pm »
I could have sworn that this predicted number applied to Falcon launches.

Online steveleach

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 144 launch year in 2024
« Reply #468 on: 10/09/2024 10:52 pm »
I could have sworn that this predicted number applied to Falcon launches.
Let's not get into that debate again. Everyone has their own interpretation, and that's fine.

Offline meekGee

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 144 launch year in 2024
« Reply #469 on: 10/10/2024 07:45 pm »
I like user Mandrewa's monthly smoothed counts, so here's one for September, late.

Last few months were "special", so I will not try to smooth them out.  The whole point of this methodology is to track a trend by shifting flights from month to month to eliminate random "circumstantial" noise while keeping the total number of flights invariant.  The stand-downs were not circumstantial noise, so they should show as-is.

The smoothed count of SpaceX launches for the last 18 months:

7 launches, April 2023
8 launches, May 2023
8 launches, June 2023
8 launches, July 2023
9 launches, August 2023
9 launches, September 2023
9 launches, October 2023
9 launches, November 2023
10 launches, December 2023
10 launches, January 2024
11 launches February 2024
11 launches March 2024
12 launches April 2024
12 launches May 2024
12 launches June 2024
6 launches July 2024
12 launches August 2024
9 launches September 2024

*Unlike other fits, this system actually exactly preserves the total number of launches performed

---

And here's the unsmoothed count:

7 launches, April 2023
9 launches, May 2023
7 launches, June 2023
8 launches, July 2023
8 launches, August 2023
10 launches, September 2023
9 launches, October 2023
10 launches, November 2023
9 launches, December 2023
10 launches, January 2024
9 launches, February 2024
13 launches March 2024
12 launches April 2024
13 launches May 2024
11 launches June 2024
6 launches July 2024
12 launches August 2024
9 launches September 2024

And yeah, for 144 in 2024 they now need to get to 16,16,17 ...

If they manage 12,12,12, they'll "only" hit 131, but given weather, it'll likely be below that.

ABCD - Always Be Counting Down

Online ZachF

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 144 launch year in 2024
« Reply #470 on: 10/10/2024 10:20 pm »
With three stand-downs, two very brief, the projection for 2024 is at 120, well short of 144.

120 launches ain't bad. In fact that appears to be more than any US company has ever launched in a calendar year, including SpaceX itself.

To put things in perspective, up to 2023 no country has launched 120 orbital missions in a year. Outside of the Falcon 9 family there has been only one orbital launch family with more than 60 launches in a year. That was done by the R7 family in the late 1970s to early 1980s

Looks like SpaceX will probably get into the low 130s IMHO, which is roughly equal to all of ULA's launches since George W Bush left office.

DV-Adjusted tonnage wise, just this year SpaceX will have launched ~5% of all the tonnage ever launched by Earth, and a similar amount to all the tonnage ever launched by the entire Chinese space industry since it's inception...
artist, so take opinions expressed above with a well-rendered grain of salt...
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Online catdlr

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 144 launch year in 2024
« Reply #471 on: 10/11/2024 06:58 pm »
It's Tony De La Rosa, ...I don't create this stuff, I just report it.

Offline panjabi

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 144 launch year in 2024
« Reply #472 on: 10/11/2024 09:22 pm »
https://twitter.com/BCCarCounters/status/1844848026197921830

Quote
The @FAANews  has approved the return to flight for Falcon 9
« Last Edit: 10/11/2024 09:23 pm by panjabi »

Online steveleach

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 144 launch year in 2024
« Reply #473 on: 10/14/2024 08:29 am »
Flight rate has dropped off a cliff recently, with just 5 launches in the past 30 days. They are now basically a month behind where they'd need to be to hit the 144 target.

Online Brigantine

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 144 launch year in 2024
« Reply #474 on: 10/18/2024 09:39 am »
After the two Oct 15 Starlink launches, Next Spaceflight makes that 101 launches for the year
(all vehicle types)

So if I've got this right:
- 100+ launches in a year for the first time (all vehicle types)
- 3 Starship launches in a year is a new record
-- 1 Starship Booster landing catch is a record first
- 98 Falcon launches in a year is a new record
-- (96 Falcon 9 launches - record was already set in September)
-- (93 single-stick booster landings - record was already set in September)
- 97 successful Falcon launches in a year is a new record
- 97/98 flights to (orbit or escape) in a year is a new record
(I think the failure was still orbital, just too low for Hall thrusters to maintain)

Total booster landings I believe is still lower than last year, since 2023 had 8 FH booster landings

Numbers seem to be off by one somewhere from MeekGee's numbers, not sure why
unsmoothed count:


10 launches, January 2024
9 launches, February 2024
13 launches March 2024
12 launches April 2024
13 launches May 2024
11 launches June 2024
6 launches July 2024
12 launches August 2024
9 launches September 2024
EDIT: 12 in June including Starship and 6-64 (+1),
13 in May excluding 6-64 (±0),
13 in March including Starship (±0)

UPDATE: per Ars Technica
Quote
SpaceX launched its 100th rocket of the year early Tuesday morning and followed it up with another liftoff just hours later, Space.com reports. SpaceX's centenary mission of the year lifted off from Florida with a Falcon 9 rocket carrying 23 of the company's Starlink Internet satellites aloft.

Mostly Falcon 9s ... The company followed that milestone with another launch two hours later from the opposite US coast. SpaceX's 101st liftoff of 2024 saw 20 more Starlinks soar to space from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California. The company has already exceeded its previous record for annual launches, 98, set last year. The company's tally in 2023 included 91 Falcon 9s, five Falcon Heavies, and two Starships. This year the mix is similar. (submitted by Ken the Bin)
« Last Edit: 10/18/2024 04:34 pm by Brigantine »

Offline meekGee

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 144 launch year in 2024
« Reply #475 on: 10/18/2024 12:26 pm »
After the two Oct 15 Starlink launches, Next Spaceflight makes that 101 launches for the year
(all vehicle types)

So if I've got this right:
- 100+ launches in a year for the first time (all vehicle types)
- 3 Starship launches in a year is a new record
-- 1 Starship Booster landing catch is a record first
- 98 Falcon launches in a year is a new record
-- (96 Falcon 9 launches - record was already set in September)
-- (93 single-stick booster landings - record was already set in September)
- 97 successful Falcon launches in a year is a new record
- 97/98 flights to (orbit or escape) in a year is a new record
(I think the failure was still orbital, just too low for Hall thrusters to maintain)

Total booster landings I believe is still lower than last year, since 2023 had 8 FH booster landings

Numbers seem to be off by one somewhere from MeekGee's numbers, not sure why
unsmoothed count:


10 launches, January 2024
9 launches, February 2024
13 launches March 2024
12 launches April 2024
13 launches May 2024
11 launches June 2024
6 launches July 2024
12 launches August 2024
9 launches September 2024
EDIT: 12 in June including Starship and 6-64 (+1),
13 in May excluding 6-64 (±0),
13 in March including Starship (±0)
Yeah since we're way off 144, and the nature of the monthly count is no longer a slowly increasing number +/- variance, the smoothed count lost its point.

As pointed out - still a record year and by a wide margin, But the whole point of this thread was to track the 144 goal and pontificate on data analysis methodologies, and that mission was accomplished.
« Last Edit: 10/18/2024 02:26 pm by meekGee »
ABCD - Always Be Counting Down

Offline AmigaClone

Re: SpaceX progress towards a 144 launch year in 2024
« Reply #476 on: 10/18/2024 09:02 pm »
@Brigantine

The difference in counts between you and @meekGee can be accounted for by meekGee's counts only including the Falcon 9 family launches while you decided to include Starship launches as well.

While the goal of 144 launches is now impossible to reach even counting Starship launches, SpaceX has set new records for an orbital launch vehicle provider.

Before 2020, the only entity to achieve 100+ orbital launch attempts in a year was the Soviet Union. They reached that number six times. Four years saw 100 launches (1976, 1981, 1983, 1985), one (1977) saw 102 launches, and the final one (1982) saw 108 launches.

One thing to note is that that achievement was done during a period between 1975 and 1988 where the Soviet Union attempted 1354 orbital launches for an average of 96.7 per year. Their success rate in reaching orbit was notably lower than SpaceX's.

Offline jstrotha0975

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 144 launch year in 2024
« Reply #477 on: 10/18/2024 09:24 pm »
Elon Musk and SpaceX amazing people here, SpaceX won't meet it's quota this year.

Offline seb21051

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 144 launch year in 2024
« Reply #478 on: 10/19/2024 12:39 am »
Elon Musk and SpaceX amazing people here, SpaceX won't meet it's quota this year.

They didn't do so last year. So what? I view their quotas as aspirational. I don't expect them to reach them. But, I am confident they will do their best. And after all, what more could one ask? Would you like them to be less aspirational?
« Last Edit: 10/19/2024 12:43 am by seb21051 »

Online Brigantine

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 144 launch year in 2024
« Reply #479 on: 10/19/2024 03:15 am »
Soviet Union. They reached that number six times. Four years saw 100 launches (1976, 1981, 1983, 1985), one (1977) saw 102 launches, and the final one (1982) saw 108 launches
[...]
success rate in reaching orbit was notably lower than SpaceX's.
It looks like 1982 included 7 failures and 2 partial failures, for 99 successful orbital flights (101 flights to orbit). 1977 included 4 failures and 1 partial failure for 97 successful orbital flights. The other 4 years each included at least 1 failure and 1 partial failure, so 99 is the record.

Meanwhile Starlink 8-19 is in the green so SpaceX 2024 is up to 98 successful orbital flights, it's getting close!
Already 2nd equal for successful orbital flights (with 1983) and for flights to orbit (with 1976)

- 1976: 1 failure, 2 partial failures
- 1981: 2 failures, 2 partial failures
- 1983: 2 failures
- 1985: 3 failures (one where parts reached orbit), 1 partial failure
I haven't verified that the totals come to 100


[EDIT]
Also getting close:
2023 had 98 booster recoveries (90x F9, 8x FH-side) plus one landing not recovered (B1058)
2024 now has 97 boosters landed (incl B12), though B1076.17(18) is not recovered yet.

Breaking it down by droneship & RTLS...
- 2023 had 78 droneship landings (77 recoveries), 2024 now has 76 (and 1 failure)
- 2023 had 21 RTLS landings, 2024 now also has 21 RTLS landings (incl B12)

Quote
With today's Starlink mission, SpaceX is estimated to have exceeded the total mass delivered to orbit in 2023.
Starlink 8-19 set the record for mass to orbit in a year (1,235 tons), (assuming USSR payload mass was low)
Tomorrow's flight is RTLS, that would set the RTLS record (22),
The next mission after that could set:
- most booster landings (99)
- most successful orbital flights (100) trumping USSR 1982
And the one after that could set:
- most flights reaching orbit (102)
- most droneship recoveries record (78) when it gets to port

So much trivia right now!
« Last Edit: 10/19/2024 06:27 am by Brigantine »

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