USSF NSSL Phase 3 Launch Service Procurement

[ugordan]

(And note also that "heavy lift" in this report is defined as being capable of reaching any one of the NSSL targets, e.g. 7 tonnes to LEO.)

Did you mean GEO? Because 7 tonnes to LEO hardly classifies as heavy lift.

[sstli2]

To make it easy on everyone (so yes, it is 7 metric tons to LEO per their definition)

[ugordan]

Weird definition of "heavy lift", but I stand corrected.

[sdsds]

Yes they do.  Pages 10, 11, 13 and 14.

Ah, I stand corrected. The "New Entrants" section does explicitly cover Starship/Super-Heavy, and says among other things, "As of early 2024, there are few signals of viable commercial business cases enabled by super heavy lift, and hence few potential buyers."

They don't look into factors that have potential to change the market this time (e.g. step functions as launch prices gets lower, or as satellites become cheaper to design and build).  I feel that's the biggest limitation of the analysis.

Yes, good point. Thanks.

[Steven Pietrobon]

To make it easy on everyone (so yes, it is 7 metric tons to LEO per their definition)

Here's the table in metric units. Note Polar LEO launches are up to 17 t, which would define a "heavy" payload.

Reference Orbit       Apogee  Perigee  Inclination  Mass to Orbit
                       (km)     (km)      (°)           (kg)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Low Earth orbit (LEO)    926     926      63.4      6,800
Polar                    833     833      98.2      7,030-17,010
MEO direct inject 1   18,177  18,177      50        5,330
MEO direct inject 2   20,350  20,350      55        4,080
MEO transfer orbit    20,350   1,000      55        4,080-5,080
GEO transfer orbit    35,618     185      27        8,160
GEO direct inject     35,786  35,786       0        2,270-6,580
Molniya orbit         39,170   1,204      63.4      5,220

[AndrewM]

The RFP for NSSL Phase 3 Lane 2 was modified on June 20, 2024. The most notable change to me was the 3rd provider slot no longer specifies which five GPS IIIF missions will be awarded.

https://sam.gov/opp/b5287289cb174251a26086a5962faf95/view

[AndrewM]

There was an industry day help for Lane 1 in August. It includes the NRO, SDA, and USSF planned contract awards & launches. Looks like the 1st task orders are planned for FY25 Q1 and are SDA-1 and NTO-2. SDA-1 consists of 7 missions planned to launch between FY27 Q1 and FY27 Q3 (Tranche 2 Transport) while NTO-2 consists of an offerer proposed number of launches occurring roughly between FY25 Q3 and FY26 Q4. It also includes updates on plans for Vandenberg and Cape Canaveral.

https://sam.gov/opp/7111789df59149cd81596402c35e33d3/view

[deltaV]

I posted a poll about who will win lane 2: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=61602.0.

[deltaV]

https://twitter.com/thesheetztweetz/status/1682743141890179072

I just noticed that the phase 3 industry day slides from last year (https://sam.gov/opp/e5d778c9278a47c9a759927901e35bf6/view) slide 48 includes 12 orbits, whereas the tweet quoted above only includes 9.

The extra 3 orbits are all circular:
MEO Direct 2, 55.0 degrees inclination, 6,450 lb, 14,442 nmi semi-major axis
GEO 1.5, 0.0 degrees inclination, 8,000 lb, 22,767 nmi semi-major axis
Retrograde, 120 degrees inclination, 15,000 lb, 7,444  nmi semi-major axis

The first two new orbits appear uninteresting since they're similar to other listed orbits. The third new orbit seems important because 120 degrees inclination seems to require extreme dog-legs to reach from any standard US launch facilities other than Vandenberg and Kodiak.

Edit: GEO 1 is 5000 lb in the slides, 8000 lb in the tweet.

[StraumliBlight]

The RFP for NSSL Phase 3 Lane 2 was modified on June 20, 2024. The most notable change to me was the 3rd provider slot no longer specifies which five GPS IIIF missions will be awarded.

The RFP was amended again on September 30th.

Is: All launches on this contract shall occur from CCSFS, VSFB, or KSC. The Contractor Launch System shall be capable of performing Category B & C missions from the Eastern Range (including missions that require vertical integration, if ordered under subsection 3.8.5.3) and Category B & C missions from the Western Range on this contract NLT 1 October 2026. There is not currently a requirement for vertical integration for missions launching from the Western Range.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/spcplcyonline/status/1847360399357919681

Space Systems Command has made 2  NSSL phase 3 lane 1 task order awards to SpaceX totaling $733.6 million.  One is  for 7 SDA launches.  Other is for an NRO mission.

[sdsds]

PDF of the announcement here.

[Steven Pietrobon]

Text of the announcement.

SPACE SYSTEMS COMMAND Office of Public Affairs (SSC/PA) 483 N. Aviation Blvd. El Segundo, Calif. 90245-2808
Date: Oct 18, 2024 Contact: Media Relations Division Telephone: (310) 653-3145 [email protected]

U.S. Space Force’s Space Systems Command Issues Two (2) Task Orders for National Security Space Launch Phase 3 Lane 1

Summary: First Phase 3 Lane 1 task orders issued under dual-lane acquisition strategy expands launch service provider pool for national security launches.

EL SEGUNDO, Calif. – The U.S. Space Force’s Space Systems Command (SSC) awarded National Security Space Launch (NSSL) Phase 3 Lane 1 Launch Service Task Orders (LSTOs) totaling $733,566,001 to SpaceX. These are the first two NSSL Phase 3 Lane 1 LSTOs issued under an Indefinite Delivery Indefinite Quantity (IDIQ) contract awarded in June 2024. They include one Task Order for seven Space Development Agency (SDA) launches, and one for a National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) mission set.

The SDA-1 LSTO will support the launch of Space Vehicles (SVs) for the Tranche 2 Transport Layer satellite constellation.

The NTO-2 LSTO will support an NRO mission set that will be launched into orbit during 4QFY25 and 4QFY26. The awardee, SpaceX, will launch the NRO mission set from Vandenberg SFB.

“In this era of Great Power Competition, it is imperative to not leave capability on the ground,” said Brig. Gen. Kristin Panzenhagen, program executive officer for Assured Access to Space. “The Phase 3 Lane 1 construct allows us to execute launch services more quickly for the more risk-tolerant payloads, putting more capabilities on orbit faster in order to support National Security.”

“We are excited to kick off our innovative NSSL Phase 3 Lane 1 effort with two task orders that support critical NRO and SDA missions,” said Lt. Col. Douglas Downs, SSC’s materiel leader for Space Launch Procurement. “Industry stepped up to the plate and delivered on this competition. Our innovative dual-lane strategy is enabling a streamlined process from mission acquisition to launch, getting our assets on orbit for our warfighters’ benefit more quickly. Plus, with the ability to on-ramp new providers and systems annually, we expect to see increasing competition and diversity.”

The next opportunity for providers to on-ramp their emerging systems to the Lane 1 IDIQ contract will occur later this year followed by several more Task Order RFPs for launch services in the third quarter of FY25. The Phase 3 Lane 1 award period consists of a five-year base ordering period from FY25 to FY29 plus a five-year option. At least 30 NSSL Lane 1 missions are expected to be competed over the five-year base ordering period.

Space Systems Command is the U.S. Space Force’s field command responsible for acquiring and delivering resilient war fighting capabilities to protect our nation’s strategic advantage in, from, and to space. SSC manages a $15.6 billion space acquisition budget for the DoD and works in partnership with joint forces, industry, government agencies, and academic and allied organizations to accelerate innovation and outpace emerging threats. Our actions today are making the world a better space for tomorrow.
-30-
Media representatives can submit questions for response regarding this topic by sending an e-mail to [email protected]

[sstli2]

733 million for 8 launches is 91M. Where do we think ULA's bid came in?

[gongora]

733 million for 8 launches is 91M. Where do we think ULA's bid came in?

9 launches

[Greg Hullender]

SSC manages a $15.6 billion space acquisition budget for the DoD and works in partnership with joint forces, industry, government agencies, and academic and allied organizations to accelerate innovation and outpace emerging threats.

I wonder what fraction of that $15.6 billion dollars goes to SpaceX.

[AmigaClone]

733 million for 8 launches is 91M. Where do we think ULA's bid came in?

733 million for 9 launches is 81.5M.

I suspect that ULA's bid to have been between 85-100M, but even if their bid had been lower than SpaceX's the U.S. Space Force’s Space Systems Command didn't have confidence that Vulcan-Centaur would reach needed to launch the missions already awarded as part of Phase 2 and the additional launches in their proposed timeline.

[gongora]

I wonder what fraction of that $15.6 billion dollars goes to SpaceX.

Rising over 5%?  May depend on who exactly is paying for the Starshield stuff, NRO is a separate bucket.  Launch is a small part of SSC budget.

[StraumliBlight]

733 million for 9 launches is 81.5M.

I suspect that ULA's bid to have been between 85-100M, but even if their bid had been lower than SpaceX's the U.S. Space Force’s Space Systems Command didn't have confidence that Vulcan-Centaur would reach needed to launch the missions already awarded as part of Phase 2 and the additional launches in their proposed timeline.

The press release stated 8 launches.

They include one Task Order for seven Space Development Agency (SDA) launches, and one for a National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) mission set.

[gongora]

733 million for 9 launches is 81.5M.

I suspect that ULA's bid to have been between 85-100M, but even if their bid had been lower than SpaceX's the U.S. Space Force’s Space Systems Command didn't have confidence that Vulcan-Centaur would reach needed to launch the missions already awarded as part of Phase 2 and the additional launches in their proposed timeline.

The press release stated 8 launches.

They include one Task Order for seven Space Development Agency (SDA) launches, and one for a National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) mission set.

and where does it say the NRO mission set is one launch?  It gives two dates a year apart for that mission set.