Predictions 2021Space Tourism Space Tourism will finally actually start by the end of this millennium (sarcasm) Blue Origin (everything two years later than my predictions for 2019) Manned flights of New Shepard by end of Q2 Jeff Bezos takes flight in Q3 to show customers ready Commercial flights with tourists start in Q4
Virgin Galactic Another delay from test flight that failed Richard Branson takes flight in Q3 First tourist flight in Q4
Commercial Crew Dragon Has a good year with all missions successful
CST-100 Unmanned test flight will discover new issues delaying crewed test flight Crewed test flight pushed to Q4 2021 and successful
SLS Green run discovers a few issues to clean up Stays enough on schedule for 2021 Q4 launch
Orion Artemis 1 flight successful by end of 2021 Artemis 2 crew selected and announced around time of Artemis 1 launch (1 foreign astronaut) Artemis 3 plan changes to mission to Gateway only. First landing moved to Artemis 6 or 7
SpaceX Falcon 9 perfect record again Starlink deployment continues successfully with subscriptions steadily increasing Dragon - See above
Starship Steady development, but slower than expected Lunar Starship development slows since NASA didn't get budget request Heat shield issues take longer than expected to resolve Another prototype before successful landing
Super Heavy Flies several times, but not with Starship in 2021
Blue Origin New Glenn Launch pad for New Glenn completed First launch pushed to 2022 Blue works quietly with Lockheed towards Orion flying on New Glenn Second stage details emerge - future version will be refuelable for Moon and beyond
Blue Moon Lander NASA delays planned landing until NET 2026 providng reduced funding. Continues fully funding development of Descent Element with internal funds while NG and Lockheed slow down their part due to reduced NASA funding.
ULA All launches successful Vulcan launches by year end
Small Launchers Market grows slowly and many smaller players drop out. Virgin Orbit Two successful launches (prediction will finally happen in 2021) Rocket Lab One successful first stage helicopter recovery by year's end
Stratolauncher Fly carrier aircraft at least five times to test flying characteristics Talon development progresses steadily
Lunar landers National Team and SpaceX survive downselect Awards slow development contracts The National Team and SpaceX first mission date moves to NET 2026 NASA tries to build case for bigger HLS budget in 2022
ISS More maintenance issues pop up as station ages. Axiom makes steady progress for commercial station to eventually replace ISS
Gateway PPE/Minimum hab development slows down due to lack of new administration support Russia - talks continue but still no agreement to contribute
Artemis Program Target for lunar landing moved back to 2026 which really means 2030 or later. Planning for Artemis 3 to 6 become Gateway only missions.
Mars Development of Nuclear Thermal engine continues slower targeting 2028 in space test Mars Ice Mapper program starts SpaceX’s plan to send cargo version of Starship gets moved to 2026
NASA Administrator People will quickly miss Jim Bridenstine
NASA Will not be nearly as high a priority as it was in the last four years. No growth in funding over next four years. Lunar return priority fades as excuse is that Mars is the real goal sometimes way out in the future.
NASA- Artemis I flies in Q4, Artemis II's crew is named, includes three NASA astronauts (one woman) and one Canadian astronaut.- Dynetics and SpaceX are down-selected for Artemis HLS- Congress increases funding for Artemis, although first landing is pushed back to 2028 and a later mission.- Artemis III is changed to a gateway only flight, Artemis IV becomes an un crewed lander-Orion test flight.- Europa Clipper is moved to a commercial launch vehicle from SLS.- Pamela Melroy is sworn in as NASA's 14th Administrator (this one is extremely specific but I still feel confident about it).
SpaceX-SN9 hops to 12.5km, destroyed on landing.-SN10 repeats the 12.5km hops but is able to land without blowing up, before tipping over and being damaged beyond repair.-Towards the end of the year SN11 becomes the first Starship prototype to complete return from a 12.5km hop in one piece.-Lunar Starship mockup is completed, Artemis astronauts begin flying down to Texas to start training on the mockup/actively taking part in development.-BN1 is completed, performs static fire but blows up.-Crew-2, Crew-3 and AX-1 all fly to the ISS successfully. Crew-4 is penciled for 2022 with the exact launch date depending on Starliner-1.
CNSA-Tianhe 1 launches in Q1.-Shenzhou 12 carries three Chinese taikonauts to the station in Q2, followed by Shenzhou 13 in Q4.-The landing site for Chang'e 6 is selected and is set to launch on the first ever sample return mission to the far side of the Moon in 2025.
RocketLab-First successful launches from LC-2 and LC-1B are carried out.-A booster is successfully recovered.
Boeing-Boe-OFT2 flies in Q2, followed by CFT in Q4.-Starliner-1 is scheduled for 2022, a JAXA astronaut is added to the crew.
NSF-NASASpaceflight.com's youngest writer, Tobias Corbett, finally manages to write an article free of a single typo.
Space Politics-The incoming Biden administration's space policy prioritizes climate science over human spaceflight, despite this the Artemis program pulls of the impossible and survives a change of administration.
My predictions for 2021.. somewhat rehashed from 2021, which were rehashed from 2019, which were rehashed from 20182020: -- guesses: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=49397.msg2031118#msg2031118 -- results: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=49397.msg2172520#msg21725202019: -- guesses: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=46748.msg1888769#msg1888769 -- results: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=46748.msg2028923#msg20289232018: -- guesses: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44307.msg1759927#msg1759927 -- results: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44307.msg1888676#msg1888676
USNo Starship or derivative reaches orbit YepNo US lunar lander lands successfully YepVG flies no more than four times YepNS flies no more than four times and does not take paid passengers NopeAlpha maiden launch fails YepOFT-2 faces no major problems NopeNG flies NopeVulcan maiden launch is successful; if there are any more launches they also are not failures NopeRussiaNo complete failures - bit riskier this year with Angara - this one is arguable with the Angara, but it'll be generous and say YepIndiaGaganyaan prototype launches NopeFive or less total orbital launches as they struggle with Covid recovery Yep - two!Hopper appears, does not fly NopeChinaTianwen-1 works with no major issues YepZQ-2 reaches orbit NopeAnother private liquid launcher is shown but doesn't fly NopeTianhe launch is successful, permanent habitation has begin by the end of the year YepAt least one big rocket hopper appears NopeCrewed lunar programme is officially approved YepOthersIran successfully launches an all-(or mostly-) solid SLV NopeNuri is pushed to 2022 NopeDPRK makes some noises about rockets as Nuri approaches but no SLV launches YepOverallAt least one orbital collision involving a complete sat Yep - I thought i'd lost this one, but it was just confirmed for Yunhai 1-02115-130 launches Nope7-10 complete failures (lots of maiden launches again) YepChina>US [not incl. RL]>Russia launch totals pattern holds (possibly for the last time, with US small launchers ramping up) YepAt least seven orbital launchers have their maiden flight attempts this year NopeWe get a launch failure with successful booster recovery Yep - I was expecting SpaceX, but RL got this one in for me.