Author Topic: SpaceX Falcon 9 FT - SES-9 - March 4, 2016 - DISCUSSION  (Read 1087879 times)

Offline Kabloona

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 FT - SES-9 - March 4, 2016 - DISCUSSION
« Reply #340 on: 01/29/2016 10:44 pm »
what percent chance could the slip mean theyre going to reuse the orbcomm stage for ses?

My money is on "zero."

Offline tleski

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 FT - SES-9 - March 4, 2016 - DISCUSSION
« Reply #341 on: 01/29/2016 10:48 pm »
what percent chance could the slip mean theyre going to reuse the orbcomm stage for ses?

I would say zero.
And as many people around here said before, it is a really good time to sign up for L2.

Offline Mader Levap

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 FT - SES-9 - March 4, 2016 - DISCUSSION
« Reply #342 on: 01/29/2016 10:53 pm »
On the other hand, our ASDS spies indicate that the barge was taken out of Port Canaveral for a shake down cruise yesterday, with plans for another trip today.  So that might indicate that SpaceX are in fact gearing up for a near-term launch attempt.  *Might*.
This does not indicate anything whatsoever. That launch slipped does not mean that shake down cruises would be also moved to right. Why they would be?
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Offline CraigLieb

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 FT - SES-9 - March 4, 2016 - DISCUSSION
« Reply #343 on: 02/01/2016 02:06 pm »
SpaceNews with the same situation. No one knows, not even SES - and SpaceX isn't talking about it.

http://spacenews.com/delays-in-spacex-falcon-9-upgrade-schedule-raises-concerns/

I thought that everybody else gets their information from reading NasaSpaceFlight.com update threads... ;-)
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Offline JamesH

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 FT - SES-9 - March 4, 2016 - DISCUSSION
« Reply #344 on: 02/01/2016 03:46 pm »
I wonder if the returned stage and subsequent test firing showed up some issues they need to fix, since it appeared the launch itself went quite well. Or perhaps a fix for the landing legs as shown up in the last landing attempt is taking a bit longer than expected.
« Last Edit: 02/01/2016 03:47 pm by JamesH »

Offline WBY1984

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 FT - SES-9 - March 4, 2016 - DISCUSSION
« Reply #345 on: 02/01/2016 04:02 pm »
It sounds like something really serious is going on.

Offline kevinof

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 FT - SES-9 - March 4, 2016 - DISCUSSION
« Reply #346 on: 02/01/2016 04:05 pm »
That was my first thought a couple of days ago. Did they find something that they didn't like.

I don't think it's anything to do with the legs - they are only part of the secondary mission and doubtful they would delay a launch because of them.

Offline Tuts36

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 FT - SES-9 - March 4, 2016 - DISCUSSION
« Reply #347 on: 02/01/2016 04:23 pm »
That was my first thought a couple of days ago. Did they find something that they didn't like.


If they DID find a serious issue in the returned 1st stage, that would be quite interesting.  RTLS would have justified itself, even without reuse.


Offline francesco nicoli

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 FT - SES-9 - March 4, 2016 - DISCUSSION
« Reply #348 on: 02/01/2016 04:36 pm »
That was my first thought a couple of days ago. Did they find something that they didn't like.


If they DID find a serious issue in the returned 1st stage, that would be quite interesting.  RTLS would have justified itself, even without reuse.

Indeed. but still it's a worrysome development: it means the vector which should carry on most of 2016 launches is off the pad and the previous design is not in production any more.

Offline edkyle99

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 FT - SES-9 - March 4, 2016 - DISCUSSION
« Reply #349 on: 02/01/2016 04:48 pm »
The January 30 photos of Falcon 9 stages on test stands at McGregor shows that SpaceX may be putting hardware into pre-flight qualification testing. 

 - Ed Kyle       

Offline MarekCyzio

The January 30 photos of Falcon 9 stages on test stands at McGregor shows that SpaceX may be putting hardware into pre-flight qualification testing. 

 - Ed Kyle       

At least the first stage.

Online meekGee

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 FT - SES-9 - March 4, 2016 - DISCUSSION
« Reply #351 on: 02/01/2016 06:58 pm »
That was my first thought a couple of days ago. Did they find something that they didn't like.


If they DID find a serious issue in the returned 1st stage, that would be quite interesting.  RTLS would have justified itself, even without reuse.
That's my guess.
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Offline Jim

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 FT - SES-9 - March 4, 2016 - DISCUSSION
« Reply #352 on: 02/01/2016 07:13 pm »
That was my first thought a couple of days ago. Did they find something that they didn't like.

If they DID find a serious issue in the returned 1st stage, that would be quite interesting.  RTLS would have justified itself, even without reuse.

Unlikely. The stage went through another static fire.  Any issue affecting upcoming launches would have come forward before then and also could have affected the static fire.  Any issues after the static fire would more likely affect reuse vs first flight.   

And there are many other events that could have brought forward issues.  McGregor testing data review this launch or others could have uncovered some issues.  Even data review in the factory or engine testing for other mission could have uncovered issues.  Or even there could have been problems on Jason-3.   Or issues cleared for Jason-3 are still open for other missions. 

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 FT - SES-9 - March 4, 2016 - DISCUSSION
« Reply #353 on: 02/01/2016 07:17 pm »
They may have had time to look at the struts (just an example, could be anything critical especially if on both stages) under a microscope. They may have found cracks where they expected none.

If it does have something to do with stuff they found on the returned first stage (doubtful), it will have proven the value of recovery.

But I suspect Jim is right.
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Offline dorkmo

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 FT - SES-9 - March 4, 2016 - DISCUSSION
« Reply #354 on: 02/01/2016 08:48 pm »
i was wondering if maybe some of the data from last launch's second stage mimiced some things from the second stage failure that they thought they had fixed.

Online Chris Bergin

I would not be surprised if Elon tweets something about it.
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Offline Brovane

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 FT - SES-9 - March 4, 2016 - DISCUSSION
« Reply #356 on: 02/01/2016 09:46 pm »
I would not be surprised if Elon tweets something about it.

In the words of Shotwell, Elon leans forward in his tweeting. 
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Offline alang

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 FT - SES-9 - March 4, 2016 - DISCUSSION
« Reply #357 on: 02/02/2016 02:08 am »
i was wondering if maybe some of the data from last launch's second stage mimiced some things from the second stage failure that they thought they had fixed.

Indeed. Perhaps they've fixed a probable cause of S2 failure but now have better data.

Online meekGee

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 FT - SES-9 - March 4, 2016 - DISCUSSION
« Reply #358 on: 02/02/2016 02:15 am »
They may have had time to look at the struts (just an example, could be anything critical especially if on both stages) under a microscope. They may have found cracks where they expected none.

If it does have something to do with stuff they found on the returned first stage (doubtful), it will have proven the value of recovery.

But I suspect Jim is right.

Just talking about possibility here, but there can be issues you discover that will affect future flight, but won't affect a static fire.

Or, maybe something you find AFTER the static fire, telling you that you're one cycle away from a likely failure (remember also that the static fire was short, maybe cut short)

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Offline Flying Beaver

Is it possible (completely hypothetically) that SX is taking the extra time to get one of the OrbComm engines ready to be reflown on the SES-9 core? I.e after the static fire at SLC-40 they removed one of the fully functioning engines and shipped it back to McGregor for a full set of qualification tests. To then get it back to the cape for integration with the awaiting SES-9 stage.

This would add weeks onto the launch schedule but the chance to reuse one of the engine would be a major step towards reusability of the entire stage. Plus SX could pretty much guarantee a success having the ability to test the engine fully at McGregor.

But as I said, purely hypothetical.
« Last Edit: 02/02/2016 03:03 am by Chris Bergin »
Watched B1019 land in person 21/12/2015.

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