While it would be true if you were talking all rural broadband, I actually disagree because he mentions *satellite* broadband. Starlink has more satellites in orbit than all other such services combined, so Starlink has better line of site than all others combined. Capacity limitations have a similar argument, although literally today that might be true it’s extremely unlikely in the medium term.Tim F has lost credibility, from claiming firm sources that ended up undercounting the number of satellites per launch before Starlink v0.9, to claiming SpaceX had entirely abandoned the idea of laser links to claiming they couldn’t use the dense stack of cards deployment method with lasers… I’m not sure why anyone considers him credible any more.SpaceX has over 140,000 subscribers. It won’t take very long for them to reach 500,000. I predict by end of 2024.
Higher frequencies allow smaller antennas with the same directivity, so V-band antennas are smaller. At the extreme, use lasers. But higher frequencies suffer much more from rain, clouds and other atmospheric effects. C-band gets through easily, while Ku, Ka, V, ...,infrared, visible, ....) suffer progressively more. But the effects are fairly local, so a theoretical fully integrated system could use the lower frequencies for customers whose higher frequencies are degraded. (back to the days of the old 4-foot diameter C-band dish, though.)
Quote from: Robotbeat on 01/14/2022 02:29 pmWhile it would be true if you were talking all rural broadband, I actually disagree because he mentions *satellite* broadband. Starlink has more satellites in orbit than all other such services combined, so Starlink has better line of site than all others combined. Capacity limitations have a similar argument, although literally today that might be true it’s extremely unlikely in the medium term.Tim F has lost credibility, from claiming firm sources that ended up undercounting the number of satellites per launch before Starlink v0.9, to claiming SpaceX had entirely abandoned the idea of laser links to claiming they couldn’t use the dense stack of cards deployment method with lasers… I’m not sure why anyone considers him credible any more.SpaceX has over 140,000 subscribers. It won’t take very long for them to reach 500,000. I predict by end of 2024.He said Starlink won't be the only option for sat broadband worldwide. Which is almost certainly true, but not very meaningful. Some countries will prefer domestic competitors, and may refuse to license Starlink or emplace onerous requirements for that reason. The GEO companies serving direct to consumer internet are also probably going to stick around, but their revenues are going to take a big hit. The 500k is a US-only figure. The claim that they can't reach that in the US is silly. It's probably technically possible for Starlink to service that many US customers with only the 1800 sats in orbit today, while still keeping the 95% percentile speed above 50 Mbps, if they could get the dish components they need.Quote from: DanClemmensen on 01/14/2022 05:23 pmHigher frequencies allow smaller antennas with the same directivity, so V-band antennas are smaller. At the extreme, use lasers. But higher frequencies suffer much more from rain, clouds and other atmospheric effects. C-band gets through easily, while Ku, Ka, V, ...,infrared, visible, ....) suffer progressively more. But the effects are fairly local, so a theoretical fully integrated system could use the lower frequencies for customers whose higher frequencies are degraded. (back to the days of the old 4-foot diameter C-band dish, though.)I mentioned the V-band constellation because they are in lower orbits, so they will have smaller beam spots even with the same beam angle. I think the Gen2 constellation, which is partly at lower orbits, is Ka/Ku band so it should be decent in the rain too.
Quote from: envy887 on 01/14/2022 05:40 pmQuote from: Robotbeat on 01/14/2022 02:29 pmWhile it would be true if you were talking all rural broadband, I actually disagree because he mentions *satellite* broadband. Starlink has more satellites in orbit than all other such services combined, so Starlink has better line of site than all others combined. Capacity limitations have a similar argument, although literally today that might be true it’s extremely unlikely in the medium term.Tim F has lost credibility, from claiming firm sources that ended up undercounting the number of satellites per launch before Starlink v0.9, to claiming SpaceX had entirely abandoned the idea of laser links to claiming they couldn’t use the dense stack of cards deployment method with lasers… I’m not sure why anyone considers him credible any more.SpaceX has over 140,000 subscribers. It won’t take very long for them to reach 500,000. I predict by end of 2024.He said Starlink won't be the only option for sat broadband worldwide. Which is almost certainly true, but not very meaningful. Some countries will prefer domestic competitors, and may refuse to license Starlink or emplace onerous requirements for that reason. The GEO companies serving direct to consumer internet are also probably going to stick around, but their revenues are going to take a big hit. The 500k is a US-only figure. The claim that they can't reach that in the US is silly. It's probably technically possible for Starlink to service that many US customers with only the 1800 sats in orbit today, while still keeping the 95% percentile speed above 50 Mbps, if they could get the dish components they need.Quote from: DanClemmensen on 01/14/2022 05:23 pmHigher frequencies allow smaller antennas with the same directivity, so V-band antennas are smaller. At the extreme, use lasers. But higher frequencies suffer much more from rain, clouds and other atmospheric effects. C-band gets through easily, while Ku, Ka, V, ...,infrared, visible, ....) suffer progressively more. But the effects are fairly local, so a theoretical fully integrated system could use the lower frequencies for customers whose higher frequencies are degraded. (back to the days of the old 4-foot diameter C-band dish, though.)I mentioned the V-band constellation because they are in lower orbits, so they will have smaller beam spots even with the same beam angle. I think the Gen2 constellation, which is partly at lower orbits, is Ka/Ku band so it should be decent in the rain too.Agreed. But… He goes farther than “will not” (which as you say is trivial… Viasat and others will operate their satellites until they fail even if there is no upgrade) and says /cannot/.
Quote from: Robotbeat on 01/14/2022 06:07 pmQuote from: envy887 on 01/14/2022 05:40 pmQuote from: Robotbeat on 01/14/2022 02:29 pmWhile it would be true if you were talking all rural broadband, I actually disagree because he mentions *satellite* broadband. Starlink has more satellites in orbit than all other such services combined, so Starlink has better line of site than all others combined. Capacity limitations have a similar argument, although literally today that might be true it’s extremely unlikely in the medium term.Tim F has lost credibility, from claiming firm sources that ended up undercounting the number of satellites per launch before Starlink v0.9, to claiming SpaceX had entirely abandoned the idea of laser links to claiming they couldn’t use the dense stack of cards deployment method with lasers… I’m not sure why anyone considers him credible any more.SpaceX has over 140,000 subscribers. It won’t take very long for them to reach 500,000. I predict by end of 2024.He said Starlink won't be the only option for sat broadband worldwide. Which is almost certainly true, but not very meaningful. Some countries will prefer domestic competitors, and may refuse to license Starlink or emplace onerous requirements for that reason. The GEO companies serving direct to consumer internet are also probably going to stick around, but their revenues are going to take a big hit. The 500k is a US-only figure. The claim that they can't reach that in the US is silly. It's probably technically possible for Starlink to service that many US customers with only the 1800 sats in orbit today, while still keeping the 95% percentile speed above 50 Mbps, if they could get the dish components they need.Quote from: DanClemmensen on 01/14/2022 05:23 pmHigher frequencies allow smaller antennas with the same directivity, so V-band antennas are smaller. At the extreme, use lasers. But higher frequencies suffer much more from rain, clouds and other atmospheric effects. C-band gets through easily, while Ku, Ka, V, ...,infrared, visible, ....) suffer progressively more. But the effects are fairly local, so a theoretical fully integrated system could use the lower frequencies for customers whose higher frequencies are degraded. (back to the days of the old 4-foot diameter C-band dish, though.)I mentioned the V-band constellation because they are in lower orbits, so they will have smaller beam spots even with the same beam angle. I think the Gen2 constellation, which is partly at lower orbits, is Ka/Ku band so it should be decent in the rain too.Agreed. But… He goes farther than “will not” (which as you say is trivial… Viasat and others will operate their satellites until they fail even if there is no upgrade) and says /cannot/.Rain fade is important in Ku and even more important in Ka. If you have real-time info on your customers' error performance, you can watch a storm front move through an area on a map as the little dots drop off the net and then come back.
If that 140,000 number is correct that is a gain of 50,000 in a period of about 6 months. Such that late this summer or early fall the subscribers numbers will be 200,000. In am still awaiting the new terminal factory to become operational. Once it does since the subscriber count growth rate is dependent on available terminals and not demand. Because demand is outstripping the terminal supply and continues growing. Expect the subscriber growth rate to increase by a factor of 4 to 10 after the plant goes online. Such that subscriber growth would be per year somewhere between 400,000 to 1,000,000 per year. Once this occurs then the demand limitations will start to play a part but likely not until subscriber totals reach a couple million. All of this will likely mean the subscribers will reach 1,000,000 by end of 2024 and possibly significantly more depending on the length of time the new plant had been in operation.Robotbeat, your estimate of 500,000 should be considered the minimum. To determine the most likely to many unknowns have to be resolved to get a clearer picture of how fast subscriber growth will become. Because until production of terminals matches or exceeds the demand, the true subscriber growth curves and predictions will have very wide min and max range numbers.
Tim Farrar is at it again...
Quote from: su27k on 01/14/2022 04:23 amTim Farrar is at it again: Starlink's reach won’t be enough to solve rural broadband dilemma — FarrarQuote from: fiercewireless.comBecause there is only a finite amount of spectrum available to LEO broadband systems such as Starlink (which must be shared with other LEO systems within the U.S., according to FCC rules), only a limited amount of capacity can be delivered to users in a given area, regardless of the number of Starlink satellites in the sky.It is therefore far from clear that Starlink will be capable of serving a comparable number of customers to Viasat and Hughes (i.e. in excess of 500K subscribers), let alone a significant proportion of the millions of homes in the U.S. that currently lack terrestrial broadband, in the medium term.Overall, while Starlink represents an admirable first attempt to develop a LEO broadband system and bring more choices to rural U.S. consumers, it cannot and will not become the only option for satellite broadband in the U.S. or around the world, because in many areas at least some potential customers will be unable to access Starlink, due to capacity limitations and/or the difficulty of securing a reliable line-of-sight to the constellation.Starlink will have less than 500K subscribers? We'll see...It will be interesting to see what kind of response he will have if Starlink gets anywhere close to their long term goal of 10gb connections to its users.
Tim Farrar is at it again: Starlink's reach won’t be enough to solve rural broadband dilemma — FarrarQuote from: fiercewireless.comBecause there is only a finite amount of spectrum available to LEO broadband systems such as Starlink (which must be shared with other LEO systems within the U.S., according to FCC rules), only a limited amount of capacity can be delivered to users in a given area, regardless of the number of Starlink satellites in the sky.It is therefore far from clear that Starlink will be capable of serving a comparable number of customers to Viasat and Hughes (i.e. in excess of 500K subscribers), let alone a significant proportion of the millions of homes in the U.S. that currently lack terrestrial broadband, in the medium term.Overall, while Starlink represents an admirable first attempt to develop a LEO broadband system and bring more choices to rural U.S. consumers, it cannot and will not become the only option for satellite broadband in the U.S. or around the world, because in many areas at least some potential customers will be unable to access Starlink, due to capacity limitations and/or the difficulty of securing a reliable line-of-sight to the constellation.Starlink will have less than 500K subscribers? We'll see...
Because there is only a finite amount of spectrum available to LEO broadband systems such as Starlink (which must be shared with other LEO systems within the U.S., according to FCC rules), only a limited amount of capacity can be delivered to users in a given area, regardless of the number of Starlink satellites in the sky.It is therefore far from clear that Starlink will be capable of serving a comparable number of customers to Viasat and Hughes (i.e. in excess of 500K subscribers), let alone a significant proportion of the millions of homes in the U.S. that currently lack terrestrial broadband, in the medium term.Overall, while Starlink represents an admirable first attempt to develop a LEO broadband system and bring more choices to rural U.S. consumers, it cannot and will not become the only option for satellite broadband in the U.S. or around the world, because in many areas at least some potential customers will be unable to access Starlink, due to capacity limitations and/or the difficulty of securing a reliable line-of-sight to the constellation.
I mentioned the V-band constellation because they are in lower orbits, so they will have smaller beam spots even with the same beam angle. I think the Gen2 constellation, which is partly at lower orbits, is Ka/Ku band so it should be decent in the rain too.
A bad batch?Starlink launch V1.0-L22 consists of 60 satellites launched in Mar 2021. 12 of them have now been lowered to reentry after being held at 350 km (not orbit raising to operational service) - a 20% failure rate.As the height-vs-time diagram shows, many of the ones that were in service were held back for a while too. Contrast with V1.0-L23 (launch Apr 2021) where all 60 sats are in service after a more systematic plane-drift-then-raise campaignTo be clear, the L22 sats "failed" in the sense of not being used for operational service. But their propulsion systems remained operable and they were safely disposed of, so they were NOT drifting space junk (until the last few days before reentry)
What is clear is that expectations for what Starlink can achieve in terms of closing the broadband gap in the U.S. must remain realistic. Fortunately, most of the commentators who made hyperbolic statements a couple of years ago that the U.S. should rely on Starlink instead of building more fiber have quieted down. However, some Wall Street firms still predict huge growth that supports a $100 billion-plus valuation for SpaceX, perhaps motivated by their desire to lead a future SpaceX IPO. To some degree, SpaceX itself was at pains to downplay expectations during 2021 and emphasize that Starlink will only be the best solution for the last few percent of users in rural areas. But that was also the route that Iridium took in the 1990s. When it became clear that satellite phones wouldn’t provide a realistic alternative to terrestrial cellular because of high costs and the inability to operate in most buildings, Iridium’s mantra became that it only needed 1% of the cellular market to be hugely successful. Today, it is far from clear that Starlink can achieve what it promised in winning bids to serve 600,000-plus homes in the FCC’s Rural Digital Opportunity Fund auction, without its much more ambitious version 2 constellation. And if the market for consumer satellite broadband does not grow dramatically, then that version 2 system — and the whole Starlink plan — may eventually crumble.We will not know one way or the other about the ultimate size of this market during 2022, but with SpaceX representing the lynchpin of the NewSpace ecosystem, the risk has never been greater that we will ultimately see a repeat of the 1999-2001 crash in the satellite sector.
LOL, it’s already different. Already Starlink is bigger than Teledesic was ever going to be and it has like 140,000-200,000 users.Sucks for Tim and employer ViaSat.
Doing a very rough approximation of capabilities between the two:Area x Aperture efficiency x Maximum Transmit Duty Cycle:UT1: 1809.5 cm2 x 57% x 11% = 113.5New UT: 1030.1 cm2 x 74% x 14% = 144.2New UT about 27% more capable.Quote from: vsatman on 11/12/2021 03:35 pmQuote from: Asteroza on 11/11/2021 11:13 pmHow about the new dish? new dish is 50 x 30 cm, antenna size 48 x 29 cmBUT!!! is very important that Aperture efficiency is 74% (for UT1 is only 57%)Maximum Transmit Duty Cycle is 14% (for UT1 is only11%)Summary - Gain is the same, Download speed the same , Upload speed will be about 25% better..
Quote from: Asteroza on 11/11/2021 11:13 pmHow about the new dish? new dish is 50 x 30 cm, antenna size 48 x 29 cmBUT!!! is very important that Aperture efficiency is 74% (for UT1 is only 57%)Maximum Transmit Duty Cycle is 14% (for UT1 is only11%)Summary - Gain is the same, Download speed the same , Upload speed will be about 25% better..
How about the new dish?
Each StarLink satellite has 16 beams and can serve 2000+ usersmore https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/each-starlink-satellite-has-16-beams-can-serve-2000-users-pekhterev/
Quote from: vsatman on 01/30/2022 09:02 amEach StarLink satellite has 16 beams and can serve 2000+ usersmore https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/each-starlink-satellite-has-16-beams-can-serve-2000-users-pekhterev/Interestingly, there is a reply to that LinkedIn article that says each satellite has 3 downlink antennas and 1 uplink antennas, and each can do 8 beams x 2 polarizations, for a total of 48 beams down and 16 up. That is quite a few potential customers, though obviously still not something that can serve cities. No idea if the person replying is correct, of course, but it seems like pretty specific information.
