Author Topic: NASA CRS2 Contract Award Announcement - Jan 14, 2016  (Read 219006 times)

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: NASA CRS2 Contract Award Announcement - Jan 14, 2016
« Reply #560 on: 04/29/2018 03:20 am »
Falcon 9 could launch a full MPLM to orbit and still be recovered. If you put like a Cygnus back end on it, you'd have way more cargo capability than needed.
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Offline brickmack

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Re: NASA CRS2 Contract Award Announcement - Jan 14, 2016
« Reply #561 on: 04/29/2018 03:48 am »
I kinda wonder why Orbital didn't go that route to begin with for Cygnus. The MPLM design already existed (and if they asked nicely, they might have even been able to get the first 1 or 2 at a reduced cost using spare parts from the Shuttle-flown ones). No need to develop a new PCM, and they could fit a full-sized CBM hatch to make better use of its volume capacity, and it'd keep the production line available for more permanent modules (they've bid Cygnus for this, but its just too small to be a strong choice). Antares as it exists now couldn't launch it (too heavy, too wide), but there were plenty of growth options there which they never used (the Soyuz-derived liquid upper stage, the stretched first stage, Delta-derived 5 meter fairing), and plenty of other company's rockets they could have used instead (probably a better idea anyway, Antares has turned out to be a commercial failure)

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: NASA CRS2 Contract Award Announcement - Jan 14, 2016
« Reply #562 on: 04/29/2018 04:05 am »
Because CRS needs granularity. That's also why SpaceX's smaller volume isn't actually such a bad deal for NASA. It flies pretty often. If you crammed everything in a single, larger vehicle with 3 times the volume flying once a year, you'd still only get fresh food and supplies once a year.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline su27k

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Re: NASA CRS2 Contract Award Announcement - Jan 14, 2016
« Reply #563 on: 04/29/2018 04:06 am »
The Shuttle could not deliver 20,000 kg of pressurized upmass to ISS. A fully loaded MPLM held more like 13,000 kg of cargo.

Assuming $500M for a Shuttle launch, that works out to $38,500/kg.

From Zapata-Assessment of Cost Improvements in NASA COTS CRS.pdf posted above:

Quote
It’s worth noting that many an internet discussion about the cost of commercial cargo to the ISS have failed to draw the distinctions that make for rigorous analysis, or even trying to account for major factors. Common errors include using the Space Shuttle programs historical average cost per flightd to calculate costs per kg to the ISS at a low yearly flight rate as a multiple of that average, incorrectly treating the Shuttle’s per flight costs as if NASA could purchase those flights by the yard. To make matters worse, other common errors forget that Shuttle upgrades, though not a recurring yearly operational cost, were a large, ever present and continuous capital expense in every yearly budget. Operating a Shuttle meant continually funding Shuttle upgrades. Other typical errors include using the Shuttle’s maximum payload (not cargo) of about 27,500kg to Low Earth Orbit (LEO) at 200km, then comparing against the commercial prices for ISS cargo (not payload) delivered to the actual, higher 400km ISS orbit. With errors like these such analysis are incorrect (though “not even wrong” might also apply.)

The analysis shows an apple to apple comparison gives ~$272,000 per kg for Shuttle with MPLM.
« Last Edit: 04/29/2018 04:08 am by su27k »

Offline dror

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Re: NASA CRS2 Contract Award Announcement - Jan 14, 2016
« Reply #564 on: 04/29/2018 03:00 pm »
The Shuttle could not deliver 20,000 kg of pressurized upmass to ISS. A fully loaded MPLM held more like 13,000 kg of cargo.

Assuming $500M for a Shuttle launch, that works out to $38,500/kg.

From Zapata-Assessment of Cost Improvements in NASA COTS CRS.pdf posted above:

Quote
It’s worth noting that many an internet discussion about the cost of commercial cargo to the ISS have failed to draw the distinctions that make for rigorous analysis, or even trying to account for major factors. Common errors include using the Space Shuttle programs historical average cost per flightd to calculate costs per kg to the ISS at a low yearly flight rate as a multiple of that average, incorrectly treating the Shuttle’s per flight costs as if NASA could purchase those flights by the yard. To make matters worse, other common errors forget that Shuttle upgrades, though not a recurring yearly operational cost, were a large, ever present and continuous capital expense in every yearly budget. Operating a Shuttle meant continually funding Shuttle upgrades. Other typical errors include using the Shuttle’s maximum payload (not cargo) of about 27,500kg to Low Earth Orbit (LEO) at 200km, then comparing against the commercial prices for ISS cargo (not payload) delivered to the actual, higher 400km ISS orbit. With errors like these such analysis are incorrect (though “not even wrong” might also apply.)

The analysis shows an apple to apple comparison gives ~$272,000 per kg for Shuttle with MPLM.

Oh..
I guess I fell for that one...  ;D
Space is hard immensely complex and high risk !

Offline woods170

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Re: NASA CRS2 Contract Award Announcement - Jan 14, 2016
« Reply #565 on: 04/29/2018 05:50 pm »
The Shuttle could not deliver 20,000 kg of pressurized upmass to ISS. A fully loaded MPLM held more like 13,000 kg of cargo.

Assuming $500M for a Shuttle launch, that works out to $38,500/kg.
.

Multiple errors in your post. A fully loaded MPLM weighed between 13 to 14 metric tons, including cargo. MPLM's empty weight was a little over 4,000 kg. So, that boiles down to just 9,000 to 10,000 kg of cargo capacity for a single MPLM.

https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/structure/elements/mplm.html

Also, space shuttle historic overviews have shown that the average shuttle mission cost roughly $1B.

These two figures combined boil down to something like $100,000/kg. for cargo-to-ISS via shuttle. That is substantially more expensive than CRS-1 (and CRS-2).

Offline envy887

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Re: NASA CRS2 Contract Award Announcement - Jan 14, 2016
« Reply #566 on: 04/29/2018 06:06 pm »
The Shuttle could not deliver 20,000 kg of pressurized upmass to ISS. A fully loaded MPLM held more like 13,000 kg of cargo.

Assuming $500M for a Shuttle launch, that works out to $38,500/kg.
.

Multiple errors in your post. A fully loaded MPLM weighed between 13 to 14 metric tons, including cargo. MPLM's empty weight was a little over 4,000 kg. So, that boiles down to just 9,000 to 10,000 kg of cargo capacity for a single MPLM.

https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/structure/elements/mplm.html

Also, space shuttle historic overviews have shown that the average shuttle mission cost roughly $1B.

These two figures combined boil down to something like $100,000/kg. for cargo-to-ISS via shuttle. That is substantially more expensive than CRS-1 (and CRS-2).
Fully loading the costs to operate Shuttle almost triples that number...

Offline Steven Pietrobon

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Re: NASA CRS2 Contract Award Announcement - Jan 14, 2016
« Reply #567 on: 04/30/2018 07:17 am »
Multiple errors in your post. A fully loaded MPLM weighed between 13 to 14 metric tons, including cargo. MPLM's empty weight was a little over 4,000 kg. So, that boiles down to just 9,000 to 10,000 kg of cargo capacity for a single MPLM.

I was only using the value quoted previously. Thanks for the correction.

Quote
Also, space shuttle historic overviews have shown that the average shuttle mission cost roughly $1B.

NASA was not spending $4B a year launching shuttles in the latter part of the program when it was flying four missions a year! That $1B is the average over the entire program. It was more like $2B a year for four missions, so $500M a mission. That gives a cost of $50,000/kg to $55,600/kg. Had the Space Shuttle been privatised and flown robotically, the price may have been even less.
Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design #1:  Engineering is done with numbers.  Analysis without numbers is only an opinion.

Offline woods170

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Re: NASA CRS2 Contract Award Announcement - Jan 14, 2016
« Reply #568 on: 04/30/2018 09:03 am »
Multiple errors in your post. A fully loaded MPLM weighed between 13 to 14 metric tons, including cargo. MPLM's empty weight was a little over 4,000 kg. So, that boiles down to just 9,000 to 10,000 kg of cargo capacity for a single MPLM.

I was only using the value quoted previously. Thanks for the correction.

Quote
Also, space shuttle historic overviews have shown that the average shuttle mission cost roughly $1B.

NASA was not spending $4B a year launching shuttles in the latter part of the program when it was flying four missions a year! That $1B is the average over the entire program. It was more like $2B a year for four missions, so $500M a mission. That gives a cost of $50,000/kg to $55,600/kg. Had the Space Shuttle been privatised and flown robotically, the price may have been even less.

Based upon your emphasised quote I did some digging.
The average cost was approximately $1.5B, over the life of the shuttle program:

https://www.space.com/11358-nasa-space-shuttle-program-cost-30-years.html

So, that is even higher than the $1B figure I used earlier.

However, from a publically available NASA source:

Quote from: NASA
For Fiscal Year 2010, the average cost to prepare and launch a shuttle mission was approximately $775 million.
Using the lower number from this NASA source, it boils down to $86,111/kg. Still substantially more expensive than CRS-1 and CRS-2.
« Last Edit: 04/30/2018 09:03 am by woods170 »

Offline envy887

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Re: NASA CRS2 Contract Award Announcement - Jan 14, 2016
« Reply #569 on: 04/30/2018 02:07 pm »
The Shuttle could not deliver 20,000 kg of pressurized upmass to ISS. A fully loaded MPLM held more like 13,000 kg of cargo.

Assuming $500M for a Shuttle launch, that works out to $38,500/kg.
.

Multiple errors in your post. A fully loaded MPLM weighed between 13 to 14 metric tons, including cargo. MPLM's empty weight was a little over 4,000 kg. So, that boiles down to just 9,000 to 10,000 kg of cargo capacity for a single MPLM.

https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/structure/elements/mplm.html

Also, space shuttle historic overviews have shown that the average shuttle mission cost roughly $1B.

These two figures combined boil down to something like $100,000/kg. for cargo-to-ISS via shuttle. That is substantially more expensive than CRS-1 (and CRS-2).

The Shuttle could carry cargo other than in the MPLM. According to Zapata, "the average flight of an Orbiter / MPLM delivered 13,841 kg of cargo to the ISS per flight".

The Shuttle also had very high fixed costs. Zapata estimates that 1 flight per year on Shuttle would cost $5.046 billion in 2017, with each additional flight up to 5 flights adding about $399 million.

So even though Shuttle could deliver more cargo than CRS, and even though its marginal cost per flight is similar to CRS, there was no possible way for NASA to keep Shuttle operational without MUCH higher overall costs than CRS and CC combined: about $5.5 billion at minimum to meet ISS needs with Shuttle, vs $2.0 billion total for both crew and cargo on commercial providers.

Offline gongora

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Re: NASA CRS2 Contract Award Announcement - Jan 14, 2016
« Reply #570 on: 04/30/2018 04:44 pm »
One number in the OIG report that struck me (and I'd like to know if it's accurate) is the unpressurized upmass for Dragon 2.  It's shown as 800kg, which is far less than they've carried in the Dragon 1 trunk (BEAM was about 1400kg).  I wonder if that number is just what was left over after subtracting the theoretical pressurized upmass from the total upmass, and maybe they can carry a heavier load in the trunk if the pressurized upmass is less?  Otherwise that would be a fairly large decrease in utility of the trunk for unpressurized payloads.

Offline vaporcobra

Re: NASA CRS2 Contract Award Announcement - Jan 14, 2016
« Reply #571 on: 04/30/2018 09:05 pm »
What were the per-kg costs for Shuttle delivering cargo payload again? Anyone know?

These are the best direct cost comparisons from Zapata's great paper. Put simply, it's not a productive comparison.

Offline brickmack

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Re: NASA CRS2 Contract Award Announcement - Jan 14, 2016
« Reply #572 on: 04/30/2018 10:08 pm »
One number in the OIG report that struck me (and I'd like to know if it's accurate) is the unpressurized upmass for Dragon 2.  It's shown as 800kg, which is far less than they've carried in the Dragon 1 trunk (BEAM was about 1400kg).  I wonder if that number is just what was left over after subtracting the theoretical pressurized upmass from the total upmass, and maybe they can carry a heavier load in the trunk if the pressurized upmass is less?  Otherwise that would be a fairly large decrease in utility of the trunk for unpressurized payloads.

Bartolomeo is more than that isn't it? IIRC its going to fly on Dragon 2
« Last Edit: 04/30/2018 10:10 pm by brickmack »

Offline ncb1397

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Re: NASA CRS2 Contract Award Announcement - Jan 14, 2016
« Reply #573 on: 05/07/2018 02:16 am »
The Shuttle could not deliver 20,000 kg of pressurized upmass to ISS. A fully loaded MPLM held more like 13,000 kg of cargo.

Assuming $500M for a Shuttle launch, that works out to $38,500/kg.
.

Multiple errors in your post. A fully loaded MPLM weighed between 13 to 14 metric tons, including cargo. MPLM's empty weight was a little over 4,000 kg. So, that boiles down to just 9,000 to 10,000 kg of cargo capacity for a single MPLM.

https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/structure/elements/mplm.html

Also, space shuttle historic overviews have shown that the average shuttle mission cost roughly $1B.

These two figures combined boil down to something like $100,000/kg. for cargo-to-ISS via shuttle. That is substantially more expensive than CRS-1 (and CRS-2).

The Shuttle could carry cargo other than in the MPLM. According to Zapata, "the average flight of an Orbiter / MPLM delivered 13,841 kg of cargo to the ISS per flight".

The Shuttle also had very high fixed costs. Zapata estimates that 1 flight per year on Shuttle would cost $5.046 billion in 2017, with each additional flight up to 5 flights adding about $399 million.

So even though Shuttle could deliver more cargo than CRS, and even though its marginal cost per flight is similar to CRS, there was no possible way for NASA to keep Shuttle operational without MUCH higher overall costs than CRS and CC combined: about $5.5 billion at minimum to meet ISS needs with Shuttle, vs $2.0 billion total for both crew and cargo on commercial providers.

This is absolutely non-sensical. Shuttle was servicing and building the ISS for about 4 billion per year in the years before retirement. Adjusting for inflation, that is 4.5 billion per year in 2017. That was for 3.5 flights per year, but all crew rotation and CRS-2 requirements I have seen could be accomplished in 2 flights per year. This is based on 21 shuttle flights between 2006 and 2011 at a cost of around 24 billion.
« Last Edit: 05/07/2018 02:42 am by ncb1397 »

Offline Steven Pietrobon

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Re: NASA CRS2 Contract Award Announcement - Jan 14, 2016
« Reply #574 on: 05/07/2018 05:24 am »
This is absolutely non-sensical. Shuttle was servicing and building the ISS for about 4 billion per year in the years before retirement. Adjusting for inflation, that is 4.5 billion per year in 2017.

The Space Shuttle budget ranged from $3.9B to $4.8B from FY2004 to FY2007, which was the period of time NASA was implementing fixes due to Columbia. From FY1995 to FY2003 and FY2008 to FY2010, the budget was around $3.1B in then year dollars, showing that Shuttle operations were becoming more efficient in terms of cost. Thus, I would expect that Shuttle costs would be similar today, at $3.1B, especially if the Shuttle had been privatised.

http://claudelafleur.qc.ca/Programcosts.html
Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design #1:  Engineering is done with numbers.  Analysis without numbers is only an opinion.

Offline Tomness

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Re: NASA CRS2 Contract Award Announcement - Jan 14, 2016
« Reply #575 on: 08/07/2018 07:04 pm »
Probably already asked  multiple Times, of so, please point me to the right thread/message

I read the upcoming cargo flights will be flown with D2.

What about the different size of  berthing passage when compared to the smaller docking one ?

Will be largest cargo moved to Cygnus ?

There will be Dragon1 missions until Spx-20.

I recall SpaceX or NASA saying that most cargo can be divided into smaller bags or containers, etc., so the fact that cargo D2 will dock (and not berth) isn't much of an issue.  Incidentally, I think that DC will initially berth (even though it it is also able to dock). So 2 out of 3 spacecrafts for CRS2 will initially berth.

I will post my reply here since i dont see a discussion thread for CRS-2 in general & that thread would be off-topic.

IMO, all three CRS-2 providers will eventually Dock. All concepts for post ISS with out CBM. Easier to Dock.

Offline vaporcobra

Re: NASA CRS2 Contract Award Announcement - Jan 14, 2016
« Reply #576 on: 08/07/2018 07:55 pm »
SpaceX received a few more CRS 2 disbursements over the last few weeks, totaling ~$32 million. Total awarded to SpaceX thus far is $255.6 million.

Edit: Might as well add similar stats for OATK and Sierra.

SpaceX: $255.6 million total

Orbital: $210.2 million total

Sierra: $479.5 million total

Quite a delta for SNC, but I imagine that's just how they're structuring their costs (weighted heavily upfront).
« Last Edit: 08/07/2018 08:10 pm by vaporcobra »

Offline yg1968

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Re: NASA CRS2 Contract Award Announcement - Jan 14, 2016
« Reply #577 on: 03/18/2019 11:46 pm »
https://twitter.com/spcplcyonline/status/1107674387229093889

File attached

There is some dates for CRS2 flights in this document:

Oct 2019 NG-12
Apr 2020 NG-13
Aug 2020 SpX-21
Sep 2020 SNC-1
« Last Edit: 03/18/2019 11:47 pm by yg1968 »

Offline su27k

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Re: NASA CRS2 Contract Award Announcement - Jan 14, 2016
« Reply #578 on: 02/11/2020 04:01 am »
From FY2021 budget request, page 219 (LSO-32):

Quote
KEY ACHIEVEMENTS PLANNED FOR FY 2021

NASA expects five commercial resupply flights, including the first Sierra Nevada CRS-2 flight, to deliver research and logistics hardware in FY 2021. Northrop Grumman plans to launch two commercial resupply flights and complete 11 performance milestones in support of five CRS-2 flights. SpaceX plans to launch two commercial resupply flights and complete 13 performance milestones in support of seven CRS-2 flights. Sierra Nevada plans to launch one commercial resupply flight and complete five performance milestones in support of three CRS-2 flights.

I think the initial award is 6 missions, does this mean NASA ordered more CRS-2 flights from SpaceX?

Offline gongora

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Re: NASA CRS2 Contract Award Announcement - Jan 14, 2016
« Reply #579 on: 02/12/2020 02:32 am »
From FY2021 budget request, page 219 (LSO-32):

Quote
KEY ACHIEVEMENTS PLANNED FOR FY 2021

NASA expects five commercial resupply flights, including the first Sierra Nevada CRS-2 flight, to deliver research and logistics hardware in FY 2021. Northrop Grumman plans to launch two commercial resupply flights and complete 11 performance milestones in support of five CRS-2 flights. SpaceX plans to launch two commercial resupply flights and complete 13 performance milestones in support of seven CRS-2 flights. Sierra Nevada plans to launch one commercial resupply flight and complete five performance milestones in support of three CRS-2 flights.

I think the initial award is 6 missions, does this mean NASA ordered more CRS-2 flights from SpaceX?

My first guess would be it's a typo.  In the FY2020 section it mentions milestones for 8 CRS/CRS-2 flights, two of which were CRS.

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