Quote from: TripleSeven on 08/24/2018 03:45 pmULA is dying alreadyNot true and I always cringe when I see such comments. They are doing just fine and - because I speak with a lot of customers - some put reliability over a discount (somewhat mitigated by the difference in insurance costs) and launch date availability.Now, the path is good for SpaceX as they can push the competitive angle a lot more by launching a lot more and not suffering any failures. Also, there is a lull in orders for the main sats these companies launch, so launch date availability will get better for SpaceX.Per any relevance to this thread in any way, BFR launching ULA style satellites is a LONG way away and irrelevant in the near term.
ULA is dying already
Per any relevance to this thread in any way, BFR launching ULA style satellites is a LONG way away and irrelevant in the near term.
Quote from: Chris Bergin on 08/24/2018 04:15 pmPer any relevance to this thread in any way, BFR launching ULA style satellites is a LONG way away and irrelevant in the near term.I am skeptical of your skepticism.At 6 a year, they may be at 150 successes or so by the time BFR kicks in.If BFS manages to get a credible test program, and most critically, doesn't crash too much past the early stages, it has a _lot_ of work possible in launching the starlink constellation - which has to be up by May 2023. (I do not think they will wait for this).A test program, even without any aggressive early P2P attempts would add a dozen or few more, as would Mars in 2022, and early shifts of payload over count too, meaning a conservative estimate of their goals might be pretty close to 150 flights by the time ULA hits that mark.And of course, it will be competing against a new launch vehicle, for which the statistical claims are weaker.Contracts of course are signed earlier, and designs locked in even earlier - but actively being able to compete for designs launched in 2026 or so might be a real possibility.(Assuming 'near term' here means 'flying on the next generation of launchers'.)Political concerns may of course prevent this active competition, unless BO has gotten flying by then.Of course, while they may be aiming for of the order of 150 flights by 2023, betting on timescales for new rockets hasn't been a good plan in the past.ULA is far from dying, but they're on the back foot, and relying on SpaceX dropping the ball.
you dont know what Boeing is going to do...if I had to guess...they will buy BO at some point...
Quote from: TripleSeven on 08/24/2018 08:37 pmyou dont know what Boeing is going to do...if I had to guess...they will buy BO at some point...Jeff Bezos is the richest person in the world, can provide Blue Origin $1B per year without taking a hit on his wealth, and started Blue Origin 18 years ago because he had a personal need he wanted to fulfill.So why would Jeff Bezos sell Blue Origin to an entity that isn't fully committed to reusable rockets?
Quote from: Coastal Ron on 08/24/2018 09:25 pmQuote from: TripleSeven on 08/24/2018 08:37 pmyou dont know what Boeing is going to do...if I had to guess...they will buy BO at some point...Jeff Bezos is the richest person in the world, can provide Blue Origin $1B per year without taking a hit on his wealth, and started Blue Origin 18 years ago because he had a personal need he wanted to fulfill.So why would Jeff Bezos sell Blue Origin to an entity that isn't fully committed to reusable rockets? Because he knows Boeing is...watch...see how it turns out I've made my prediction...