Author Topic: SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation  (Read 24895 times)

Offline Jeff Bingham

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Re: SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #20 on: 08/23/2011 06:46 pm »
Well, it may not be relevant to the release of the BAH, but Capitol Hill was just evacuated a little while ago due to an earthquake in central Virginia...I was at the farm and thought a very large helicopter might be flying low overhead. Might be a delay in congressional response to the Report summary, hehe.
Offering only my own views and experience as a long-time "Space Cadet."

Offline JohnFornaro

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Re: SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #21 on: 08/23/2011 06:51 pm »
So, are you saying that Mr. Bolden orchestrated the quake as yet another delaying tactic?  Just askin'.
Sometimes I just flat out don't get it.

Offline kch

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Re: SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #22 on: 08/23/2011 07:02 pm »
Well, it may not be relevant to the release of the BAH, but Capitol Hill was just evacuated a little while ago due to an earthquake in central Virginia...I was at the farm and thought a very large helicopter might be flying low overhead. Might be a delay in congressional response to the Report summary, hehe.

Hope it wasn't one of those black helicop

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #23 on: 08/23/2011 07:05 pm »
Well, it may not be relevant to the release of the BAH, but Capitol Hill was just evacuated a little while ago due to an earthquake in central Virginia...I was at the farm and thought a very large helicopter might be flying low overhead. Might be a delay in congressional response to the Report summary, hehe.

Hope it wasn't one of those black helicop
Did the guys in the black helicopter hit "Post" for you? ;)
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Offline Jeff Bingham

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Re: SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #24 on: 08/23/2011 07:21 pm »
Well, it may not be relevant to the release of the BAH, but Capitol Hill was just evacuated a little while ago due to an earthquake in central Virginia...I was at the farm and thought a very large helicopter might be flying low overhead. Might be a delay in congressional response to the Report summary, hehe.

Hope it wasn't one of those black helicop

Hehe...actually, some VERY military style helicopters and some very LARGE helicopters frequently fly over the farm, because Mount Weather, one of the major remote C and C centers operated by DHS, is located just up on the Ridge a few miles above the farm. Often see multiple choppers flying to and fro, which is probably why that was what the sound of the earthquake suggested to me, since I didn't actually feel a noticeable vibration under foot; nothing like they did in my office in DC, where things actually fell of of shelves, I'm told.
Offering only my own views and experience as a long-time "Space Cadet."

Offline ChileVerde

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Re: SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #25 on: 08/23/2011 08:03 pm »
nothing like they did in my office in DC, where things actually fell of of shelves, I'm told.

Yes, I've gotten messages from folks who were in DC and Tysons Corner who said it was pretty shaky for 30 seconds or so.

Off thread, disculpe.
"I can’t tell you which asteroid, but there will be one in 2025," Bolden asserted.

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #26 on: 08/23/2011 09:19 pm »
The returning theme to the BAH summary I kept getting was that the cost estimates, specifically for SLS, was a massaged updated trade study cost estimate that started life as one of the “solutions” from the government and industry architecture studies presented earlier this year. Although fleshed out its usability for detailed planning is no better than the original presented report. The duration of credibility doesn’t even include first SLS launch. So the 2017/2018 date we’ve been hearing for first SLS launch is highly questionable.

The MPCV estimates sounded more like from the BAH summary comments that it was the latest output from the cost sensitivities analysis for changing schedule, budget and LV.

21CGS seemed to get a bad rating due to lateness of the estimate delivery to BAH but had the best compliment that the NASA group doing the estimates for the program has been historically spot on for schedule and cost.

Offline ChileVerde

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Re: SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #27 on: 08/23/2011 09:28 pm »
The returning theme to the BAH summary I kept getting...

Yes, my poor old brain would appreciate a metasummary of the summary.

I.e., what implications does it have for the as-yet notional SLS program?
"I can’t tell you which asteroid, but there will be one in 2025," Bolden asserted.

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #28 on: 08/23/2011 09:48 pm »
The returning theme to the BAH summary I kept getting...

Yes, my poor old brain would appreciate a metasummary of the summary.

I.e., what implications does it have for the as-yet notional SLS program?

That there is 0 trust in any cost/schedule or technical design "performance" targets after 3 years out. So the 70MT launcher may end up being a 60MT launcher, cost twice as much and take until 2020 to launch. Or it could launch earlier, cost less and be able to launch 80MT. But which has historiclly been the case?

P.S- Even SpaceX's F9 has been of the second case, late, cost more and with less performance than advertised. why do we think that NASA will do better than highly succesful commercial developer like SpaceX?
« Last Edit: 08/23/2011 09:51 pm by oldAtlas_Eguy »

Offline Prober

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Re: SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #29 on: 08/23/2011 10:07 pm »
The returning theme to the BAH summary I kept getting...

Yes, my poor old brain would appreciate a metasummary of the summary.

I.e., what implications does it have for the as-yet notional SLS program?

That there is 0 trust in any cost/schedule or technical design "performance" targets after 3 years out. So the 70MT launcher may end up being a 60MT launcher, cost twice as much and take until 2020 to launch. Or it could launch earlier, cost less and be able to launch 80MT. But which has historiclly been the case?

P.S- Even SpaceX's F9 has been of the second case, late, cost more and with less performance than advertised. why do we think that NASA will do better than highly succesful commercial developer like SpaceX?

Hey old Atlas, this reminds me of a redux of the Bush program.  Two sets of now for a new name?
2017 - Everything Old is New Again.
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Offline JohnF

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Re: SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #30 on: 08/23/2011 10:28 pm »
In plain English, what the frick does this mean ?, sounds like yet another delaying tatic, am I right ?

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #31 on: 08/23/2011 10:35 pm »
SpaceX's F9 goal post turned out to be farther away and smaller than they had hoped.

NASA's HLV goal post is so far away it's over the horizon so that you can't tell how big it is or even close to how far away it is!

Offline robertross

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Re: SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #32 on: 08/23/2011 10:35 pm »
In plain English, what the frick does this mean ?, sounds like yet another delaying tatic, am I right ?

Might be, or a way to cast doubt on what NASA has provided to give congress enough doubt to force a delay by having NASA produce more tangible information to reviewed by them (BAH) and/or another party.

Offline baldusi

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Re: SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #33 on: 08/23/2011 10:37 pm »
To me it sound more of BAH saying, politely, that those budgets (specially SLS) are not realistic for the whole program. But, if they want to take them as a jobs program until the next administration, they could probably work. I pity the keynesian economist trying to get out of this recession.

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #34 on: 08/23/2011 10:43 pm »
In plain English, what the frick does this mean ?, sounds like yet another delaying tatic, am I right ?

Might be, or a way to cast doubt on what NASA has provided to give congress enough doubt to force a delay by having NASA produce more tangible information to reviewed by them (BAH) and/or another party.

BAH comment about the SLS data is that it was basiclly appropriate for a pre Phase A program. One that hasn't any detailed plans. You won't have usable high quality cost estimate data until the next milestone which would probably be this time next year, once the contractor proposals, contractors put on contract and other involved parties input their detailed costing data for the archetecture has all been submitted to NASA.

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #35 on: 08/23/2011 10:54 pm »
BTW that means it will cost nearly $1B to find out what the SLS will really cost, what the schedule will be and what the technical design to specs/performance targets will be.

We have ball park info now. But just how far inside the park or even if they actual are inside the park we do not know.

Offline Joris

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Re: SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #36 on: 08/23/2011 11:02 pm »
In plain English, what the frick does this mean ?, sounds like yet another delaying tatic, am I right ?

This says enough for me:

Quote
Recommendation: The ICA Team recommends that HEO/ESD use the occasion of a selection of a new
SLS architecture
to establish a common practice across Programs for generating cost and schedule
estimates; establish documentation standards for BOEs; and create and disseminate BOE, cost, and
schedule estimate templates to Programs.
JIMO would have been the first proper spaceship.

Offline robertross

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Re: SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #37 on: 08/23/2011 11:23 pm »
In plain English, what the frick does this mean ?, sounds like yet another delaying tatic, am I right ?

Might be, or a way to cast doubt on what NASA has provided to give congress enough doubt to force a delay by having NASA produce more tangible information to reviewed by them (BAH) and/or another party.

BAH comment about the SLS data is that it was basiclly appropriate for a pre Phase A program.
except they say that it is useful for 'trade studies':

"None of the estimates reviewed by the ICA Team support establishment of long-term budgets or detailed baselines consistent with NPR 7120.5 requirements. They are, however, reasonable AoA estimates appropriate for supporting trade studies and comparative analyses."

Quote
One that hasn't any detailed plans. You won't have usable high quality cost estimate data until the next milestone which would probably be this time next year, once the contractor proposals, contractors put on contract and other involved parties input their detailed costing data for the archetecture has all been submitted to NASA.

That's right, no detailed plans. I can't help but read their comment (see above) and think that they are offering more time (for NASA, congress) to think really hard if they might look at other alternatives (be it the launch vehicle, the destinations, or the 'non-plan').

Offline Rocket Science

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Re: SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #38 on: 08/23/2011 11:26 pm »
So let’s see… NASA gets a “C” not for lack of effort, but for lack of interest…
« Last Edit: 08/24/2011 12:18 am by Rocket Science »
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Offline yg1968

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Re: SLS: BAH Executive Summary Presentation
« Reply #39 on: 08/24/2011 01:59 am »
This part of the conclusion doesn't sound too good:

Quote
Due to unjustified, sometimes substantial, assumed future cost savings; the ICA Team views each Program’s estimate as optimistic. Reserve levels were not based on a quantitative risk analysis and do not cover each Program’s Protect Scenario. Furthermore, each Protect Scenario excludes estimating uncertainty and unknown-unknown risks, which history indicates are major sources of cost growth on programs. Due to procurement of items still in development and large cost risks in the out years, NASA cannot have full confidence in the estimates for long-term planning.

I wonder if this means that the 2021 date for the first crewed flight of SLS and MPCV is optimistic?
« Last Edit: 08/24/2011 08:40 pm by yg1968 »

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