Author Topic: Nancy Roman Space Telescope (WFIRST)  (Read 118416 times)

Offline Star One

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Re: Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST)
« Reply #80 on: 04/21/2017 01:14 pm »
More photos of the mirror are available at https://wfirst.gsfc.nasa.gov/gallery-photos.html.

I wonder how the price tag has gone from $2.6B- $2.8B given in last year's decadal mid-term to $3.2B. It's not quite clear if both estimates include the same things, though. Slides from last week's NAC Science Committee meeting don't seem to be available yet.

Isn't it the addition of the Coronagraph pushing the price tag up?

Yes, but I believe that was already included in the previous cost estimate.

Do you think they'll end up having to remove it to keep the project within a reasonable cost level?

Online vjkane

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Re: Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST)
« Reply #81 on: 04/21/2017 02:53 pm »
Do you think they'll end up having to remove it to keep the project within a reasonable cost level?
I think that they are sending a clear message to the science and engineering teams that NASA intends to keep this mission within its cost cap.

Offline Star One

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Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST)
« Reply #82 on: 04/21/2017 02:54 pm »
Do you think they'll end up having to remove it to keep the project within a reasonable cost level?
I think that they are sending a clear message to the science and engineering teams that NASA intends to keep this mission within its cost cap.

So keep the costs down or lose the Coronagraph is the message.
« Last Edit: 04/21/2017 02:55 pm by Star One »

Offline as58

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Re: Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST)
« Reply #83 on: 04/21/2017 05:22 pm »
Decadal midterm review also stressed the importance of keeping cost under control. The current version of WFIRST is ~$1B more expensive than the original pre-NRO-donation concept, which was sort of flagship-lite mission. So if there's further cost growth, it could definitely distort decadal priorities.

Online jgoldader

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Re: Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST)
« Reply #84 on: 04/21/2017 05:34 pm »
While unwelcome, such cost growth isn't uncommon when you're pushing the envelope.  Look at JWST, or even Hubble.  A solution that looks doable on paper might not survive the first batch of tests, so you've got to try something more complex and expensive.  In the case of WFIRST, if your mirror suddenly gets bigger, your whole spacecraft gets bigger, and your cooling loads get worse*, and then you're also supposed to image planets, and, and, and...

That said, I'd hate to lose the coronagraph and ability to do formation flying with an occulting mask, but I suspect at least the latter is going to be lost, if it's not already. 

*not implying this is a problem, just illustrating how a change here affects something there
« Last Edit: 04/21/2017 05:35 pm by jgoldader »
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Offline chirata

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Re: Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST)
« Reply #85 on: 04/21/2017 06:34 pm »
More photos of the mirror are available at https://wfirst.gsfc.nasa.gov/gallery-photos.html.

I wonder how the price tag has gone from $2.6B- $2.8B given in last year's decadal mid-term to $3.2B. It's not quite clear if both estimates include the same things, though. Slides from last week's NAC Science Committee meeting don't seem to be available yet.

The $2.6-2.8B in the mid-decadal assessment is in FY15 dollars, the $3.2B is measured in the year those funds are spent.

Offline as58

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Re: Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST)
« Reply #86 on: 04/21/2017 06:42 pm »
More photos of the mirror are available at https://wfirst.gsfc.nasa.gov/gallery-photos.html.

I wonder how the price tag has gone from $2.6B- $2.8B given in last year's decadal mid-term to $3.2B. It's not quite clear if both estimates include the same things, though. Slides from last week's NAC Science Committee meeting don't seem to be available yet.

The $2.6-2.8B in the mid-decadal assessment is in FY15 dollars, the $3.2B is measured in the year those funds are spent.

Ah, so it takes into account several years of inflation. I guessed the new cost wasn't in FY15 dollars, but the difference seemed surprisingly large.

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Re: Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST)
« Reply #87 on: 04/25/2017 05:52 pm »
That said, I'd hate to lose the coronagraph and ability to do formation flying with an occulting mask, but I suspect at least the latter is going to be lost, if it's not already.
Could the coronagraph equipment/instrument(s) be allocated for provision by another, international space agency?  Or the occulting mask?

I know that route has its own perils (ex: ESA, the original HST solar panels, and the thermal vibration issues), but it could cut NASA costs, and preserve a very interesting capability.
« Last Edit: 04/25/2017 09:24 pm by zubenelgenubi »
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Offline Star One

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Re: Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST)
« Reply #88 on: 04/28/2017 09:15 pm »
This seems a sensible move considering the time and cost involved.

NASA Taking a Fresh Look at Next Generation Space Telescope Plans
NASA is initiating an independent, external review over the next several months on the scope of the Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST) project to help ensure it would provide compelling scientific capability with an appropriate, affordable cost and a reliable schedule.
 
“Developing large space missions is difficult,” said Thomas Zurbuchen, Associate Administrator for NASA’s Science Mission Directorate in Washington. “This is the right time for us to pause for an independent look at our plans to make sure we understand how long it will take, and how much it will cost, to build WFIRST.”
 
WFIRST is NASA’s next large space telescope under development, after the James Webb Space Telescope that is launching in 2018.
 
NASA has launched a series of large space telescopes over the past 27 years, including the Hubble Space Telescope, the Chandra X-ray Observatory, and the Spitzer Space Telescope. In addition to being among the most productive science facilities ever built, all of these space telescopes share something else: They were all top recommendations of a National Academy of Sciences’ Decadal Survey for Astronomy and Astrophysics.
 
WFIRST, the top priority of the most recent Decadal Survey in 2010, would be as sensitive as the Hubble Space Telescope, but have 100 times its field of view; every WFIRST image would be like 100 Hubble images. It also would feature a demonstration instrument capable of directly detecting the reflected light from planets orbiting stars beyond the sun. Using these capabilities, WFIRST would study the dark energy that is driving the accelerating expansion of the universe, complete the demographic survey of planets orbiting other stars, answer questions about how galaxies and groups of galaxies form, study the atmospheres and compositions of planets orbiting other stars, and address other general astrophysics questions.
 
Recently, the National Academies conducted a midterm assessment of NASA’s progress in implementing the recommendations of the 2010 Decadal Survey. The Midterm Assessment Report recognized the continued compelling science value of WFIRST, finding that, “WFIRST [is] an ambitious and powerful facility that will significantly advance the scientific program envisioned by [the Decadal Survey], from the atmospheres of planets around nearby stars to the physics of the accelerating universe.”
 
The agency initiated the WFIRST project in 2016, beginning the formulation phase of the mission. Recognizing that cost growth in the planned WFIRST project could impact the balance of projects and research investigations across NASA’s astrophysics portfolio, the Midterm Assessment Report recommended that prior to proceeding to the next phase of the WFIRST project, “NASA should commission an independent technical, management, and cost assessment of the Wide-Field Infrared Survey Telescope, including a quantitative assessment of the incremental cost of the coronagraph.”
 
NASA conducted an analogous independent review of the James Webb Space Telescope, but conducted it later in its development lifetime. That review resulted in a replan of the Webb development project in 2011, and the Webb project has remained within the replan cost and schedule ever since.
 
“NASA is a learning organization,” said Zurbuchen. “We are applying lessons we learned from Webb on WFIRST. “By conducting this review now, we can define the best way forward for this mission and the astrophysics community at large, in accordance with the academy guidance.”
 
The review panel members will be senior engineers, scientists, and project managers mostly from outside NASA who are independent of the WFIRST project. NASA will begin the review process after filling the review panel membership during the next few weeks. The panel is expected to complete its review and submit a report outlining its findings and recommendations within approximately two months. NASA intends to incorporate these recommendations into its design and plans for WFIRST before proceeding with development of the mission.

Offline Bynaus

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Re: Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST)
« Reply #89 on: 05/01/2017 06:16 pm »
https://arxiv.org/abs/1704.08749

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The Demographics of Rocky Free-Floating Planets and Their Detectability by WFIRST

Planets are thought to form via accretion from a remnant disk of gas and solids around a newly formed star. During this process material in the disk either remains bound to the star as part of a either a planet, a smaller celestial body, or makes up part of the the interplanetary medium; falls into the star; or is ejected from the system. Herein we use dynamical models to probe the abundance and properties of ejected material during late stage planet formation and estimate their contribution to the free-floating planet population. We present 300 N-body simulations of terrestrial planet formation around a solar-type star, with and without giant planets present, using a model that accounts for collisional fragmentation. In simulations with Jupiter and Saturn analogs present, about one-third of the initial (~5 Mearth) disk mass is ejected, about half in planets more massive than Mercury but less than than 0.3 Mearth, and the remainder in smaller bodies. Most ejections occur within 25 Myr, which is shorter than the timescale typically required for Earth-mass planets to grow (30-100 Myr). When giant planets are omitted from our simulations, almost no material is ejected within 200 Myr and only about 1% of the initial disk is ejected by 2 Gyr. We show that about 2.5 terrestrial-mass planets are ejected per star in the Galaxy. We predict that the space-borne microlensing search for free-floating planets from the Wide-Field Infra-Red Space Telescope (WFIRST) will discover up to 15 Mars-mass planets, but few free-floating Earth-mass planets.

This was quite surprising to me - that WFIRST might discover Mars-mass planets (or planetary mass objects) in interstellar space (i.e., free-floaters)! Discoveries would be via microlensing though, so unlikely to be near-by.
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Offline plutogno

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Re: Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST)
« Reply #90 on: 06/06/2017 06:01 pm »
NASA’s dark-energy probe faces cost crisis
http://www.nature.com/articles/n-12339962

Offline Archibald

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Re: Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST)
« Reply #91 on: 06/06/2017 07:06 pm »
So much for saving some bucks reusing those NRO spacecrafts...
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Online matthewkantar

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Re: Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST)
« Reply #92 on: 06/06/2017 07:08 pm »
To be fair, the hand me down mirror offers more performance, if not cost savings.

Matthew

Offline Star One

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Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST)
« Reply #93 on: 06/06/2017 07:17 pm »
NASA’s dark-energy probe faces cost crisis
http://www.nature.com/articles/n-12339962

That article just recycles material concerning the rising costs of this project already posted in this thread sometime back.
« Last Edit: 06/06/2017 07:17 pm by Star One »

Online Chris Bergin

Re: Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST)
« Reply #94 on: 06/12/2017 06:09 pm »

Ball Aerospace Completes WFIRST Study for NASA
Ball Leverages Deep Heritage to Help Architect the Next Astrophysics Flagship Mission in Follow-on to Hubble, Spitzer and James Webb Space Telescopes

BOULDER, Colo., June 12, 2017 /PRNewswire/ -- Ball Aerospace today announced it has completed a six-month Phase A study of the scientific and technology requirements for the Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST) project's Wide Field Instrument (WFI). WFIRST will be NASA's next flagship space telescope under development and will follow NASA's James Webb Space Telescope.

"Ball is honored to have participated in the Wide Field Instrument Phase A Study, where we were able to leverage our successful experience from many astrophysics, planetary and Earth scientific instruments," said Jim Oschmann, Ball Aerospace vice president and general manager, civil space business unit. "We welcome the opportunity to continue our heritage of working on NASA's great observatories and in helping scientists answer fundamental questions about our place in the universe."

WFIRST, the top priority of the most recent Decadal Survey in 2010, would bring the ability to capture individual images with the depth and quality of the Hubble Space Telescope, while covering 100 times the area. Among its scientific objectives, WFIRST will enable scientists to answer questions about how galaxies and groups of galaxies form, study the atmospheres and compositions of planets orbiting other stars, and address other general astrophysics questions.

NASA has launched a series of large space telescopes over nearly 30 years, including the Hubble Space Telescope, the Chandra X-ray Observatory, the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory and the Spitzer Space Telescope. Together, these four space telescopes are known as the Great Observatories. Each was recommended by a National Academy of Sciences' Decadal Survey for Astronomy and Astrophysics, and Ball played a crucial role in each of them. For example, Ball built seven science instruments for Hubble, and each of the five science instruments currently operating on the telescope were Ball designed and built. Ball also built the Corrective Optics Space Telescope Axial Replacement (COSTAR) that helped correct Hubble's hazy vision.

Ball worked with Northrop Grumman to design and build the advanced optical components and cryogenic electronics system for NASA's next Decadal mission, the James Webb Space Telescope, which is scheduled to launch in 2018.

Ball has been involved with each Decadal mission since the 1970s, and supports the upcoming 2020 Decadal study by contributing to the Large Mission Concept Studies.   

Ball Aerospace pioneers discoveries that enable our customers to perform beyond expectation and protect what matters most.  We create innovative space solutions, enable more accurate weather forecasts, drive insightful observations of our planet, deliver actionable data and intelligence, and ensure those who defend our freedom go forward bravely and return home safely. For more information, visit www.ball.com/aerospace or connect with us on Facebook or Twitter.

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Offline Star One

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Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST)
« Reply #95 on: 06/23/2017 08:01 pm »
NASA begins independent review of WFIRST mission

Quote
The committee is co-chaired by Peter Michelson, the chair of the physics department at Stanford University who has worked on high-energy astrophysics missions such as Fermi; and Orlando Figueroa, a retired NASA official whose career included serving as deputy director of the Goddard Space Flight Center and director of NASA’s Mars exploration program. The other members include a mix of scientists, engineers and program managers.

“We are confident this review will provide the insight and confidence among key stakeholders necessary to move toward what promises to be an exciting science investigation bound to reshape our understanding of the universe,” Thomas Zurbuchen, NASA associate administrator for science, said in a statement announcing the membership of the review panel.

http://spacenews.com/nasa-begins-independent-review-of-wfirst-mission/
« Last Edit: 06/23/2017 08:04 pm by Star One »

Offline Blackstar

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Re: Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST)
« Reply #96 on: 06/24/2017 12:14 am »
I believe that there is also an independent cost estimate of WFIRST being done. The caveat is that they are in Phase A, and normally a cost estimate is done at a later point. So this cost estimate has to be taken with some salt.

Offline plutogno

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Re: Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST)
« Reply #97 on: 07/21/2017 03:32 am »
and a letter to Nature by Thomas Zurbuchen: NASA: No cost crisis for space telescope

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v547/n7663/full/547281b.html


Quote
Your report on NASA's next large space telescope, the Wide-Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST), misleadingly implies that NASA's dark-energy probe faces a cost crisis (Nature 546, 195; 2017). NASA has not yet completed the work of estimating the costs of the mission and is not facing funding difficulties, let alone a crisis.

At the recommendation of the US National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine, NASA is convening an independent technical, management and cost review of WFIRST. The purpose is to ensure that the mission's scope and cost are correctly aligned at this early stage, so that we can proceed with assurance to realize the scientific goals without overspending.

This review was recommended by the National Academies in 2014 and again in 2016, and is not motivated by the mission's current status. We are confident that the review will contribute to the successful development of a breakthrough mission that will reshape our understanding of dark energy, exoplanets and the Milky Way.

Offline hop

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Re: Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST)
« Reply #98 on: 07/21/2017 06:34 am »
That letter is remarkable in how little of the original article it actually addresses.

Quote
NASA has not yet completed the work of estimating the costs of the mission and is not facing funding difficulties, let alone a crisis.
Nothing in the article suggested that WFIRST was currently short of funds.

Offline Star One

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Re: Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST)
« Reply #99 on: 08/09/2017 05:18 pm »
Quote
NASA has turned a lot of heads in recent years thanks to its New Worlds Mission concept – aka. Starshade. Consisting of a giant flower-shaped occulter, this proposed spacecraft is intended to be deployed alongside a space telescope (most likely the James Webb Space Telescope). It will then block the glare of distant stars, creating an artificial eclipse to make it easier to detect and study planets orbiting them.

The only problem is, this concept is expected to cost a pretty penny – an estimated $750 million to $3 billion at this point! Hence why Stanford Professor Simone D’Amico (with the help of exoplanet expert Bruce Macintosh) is proposing a scaled down version of the concept to demonstrate its effectiveness. Known as mDot, this occulter will do the same job, but at a fraction of the cost.

Quote
As such, D’Amico – an assistant professor and the head of the Space Rendezvous Laboratory (SRL) at Stanford – and and Bruce Macintosh (a Stanford professor of physics) teamed up to create a smaller version called the Miniaturized Distributed Occulter/Telescope (mDOT). The primary purpose of mDOT is to provide a low-cost flight demonstration of the technology, in the hopes of increasing confidence in a full-scale mission.

Quote
Consisting of two parts, the mDOT system takes advantage of recent developments in miniaturization and small satellite (smallsat) technology. The first is a 100-kg microsatellite that is equipped with a 3-meter diameter starshade. The second is a 10-kg nanosatellite that carries a telescope measuring 10 cm (3.937 in) in diameter. Both components will be deployed in high Earth orbit with a nominal separation of less than 1,000 kilometers (621 mi).

With the help of colleagues from the SRL, the shape of mDOT’s starshade was reformulated to fit the constraints of a much smaller spacecraft. As Koenig explained, this scaled down and specially-designed starshade will be able to do the same job as the large-scale, flower-shaped version – and on a budget!

https://www.universetoday.com/136697/standford-team-creates-mdot-mini-starshade-exoplanet-research/

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