Author Topic: Predictions for 2018  (Read 52271 times)

Offline scienceguy

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Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #100 on: 09/17/2018 05:59 pm »
Mars will make it closest approach to Earth in 15 years, so there will be fake news circulating around Facebook about Mars being as big as a full moon, just like that email from 15 years ago.

Well I got this one right

edit: the picture was a screenshot I took from my facebook feed
« Last Edit: 09/21/2018 04:03 am by scienceguy »
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Offline jebbo

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Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #101 on: 09/18/2018 07:08 am »
As I'm sometimes embargoed on exoplanet discoveries, I'm not going to count this as a win until/unless there's an actual announcement.

Well, here is the 1st announcement: https://arxiv.org/abs/1809.05967 ... so I think I can now count this as a win :-)

--- Tony

Offline deruch

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Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #102 on: 09/20/2018 08:37 pm »
As I'm sometimes embargoed on exoplanet discoveries, I'm not going to count this as a win until/unless there's an actual announcement.

Well, here is the 1st announcement: https://arxiv.org/abs/1809.05967 ... so I think I can now count this as a win :-)

--- Tony

So long as it was successfully launched+maneuvered to it's operational orbit and the vehicle checked out okay, I think that was a very high likelihood prediction.  But, of course, those two/three initial conditions weren't gimmes.
« Last Edit: 09/20/2018 08:38 pm by deruch »
Shouldn't reality posts be in "Advanced concepts"?  --Nomadd

Offline jebbo

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Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #103 on: 09/21/2018 12:04 am »
So long as it was successfully launched+maneuvered to it's operational orbit and the vehicle checked out okay, I think that was a very high likelihood prediction.  But, of course, those two/three initial conditions weren't gimmes.

As you can see from my original prediction, I agree  ;D

Quote
- TESS will launch and return 1st science data, with multiple exoplanets (easy win ;) ).

--- Tony


Offline Eric Hedman

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Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #104 on: 11/03/2018 05:28 am »
Predictions for 2018

1 - Falcon Heavy will fly successfully in Q1 - Correct

2 - US, ESA, JAXA & RUSSIA try to negotiate deal to work together to return to Moon.  No deal finalized in 2018 as concepts not worked out. - Correct - Progress on concepts and work share, but not done
     2a - Trump tries to include China with Congress balking. - Incorrect
     2b - Trump tries to include India, Israel and UAE as possible partners (not settled in 2018) - Still waiting to see all partners to go in on Gateway.

3 - New Shepard and Spaceship 2 both reach space with test pilots on board.  Blue Origin does it first.  No tourists on either - May still happen.  They are both getting close.

4 - NASA puts out requests for proposals on how aerospace companies could support lunar effort with COTS approach - Correct

5 - SLS/Orion lumbers through the year with some more delays announced. - Correct.  This one was too easy.  The OIG report on SLS proves I wasn't pessimistic enough.

6 - Proposal for putting Orion on Vulcan or New Glenn is considered - Senator from Alabama throws fit -  Not this year, but maybe next year as SLS gets a year closer to launch every ten years.

7 - Dragon & CST-100 fly to ISS - Too optimistic.

8 - Elon surprises people again with announcement at IAC - Not at IAC.  But his tourist flight announcement fits the bill.

9 - Tesla Roadster on Falcon Heavy has HD dash-cam that broadcasts for a month - It had the predicted dashcam, but only designed for a few hours.

10 - Congress tries to block ideas that could show SLS is a waste of money and obsolete in comparison. - Essentially correct and will continue for foreseeable future.

11- BE-4 engine is officially picked for Vulcan - Correct.

12- Blue Origin advances Lunar lander concept revealing much more to public hoping for COTS shared cost development with NASA   - Correct.

13-BE-4 fired at full thrust for projected mission duration.  Deep throttling for landing not fully tested until 2019 - I don't know if they've done this

14-ESA determines Ariane 6 cannot compete on price or performance with SpaceX or Blue Origin, but continues with program anyways. - Correct.  ESA knows this is true and are continuing with Ariane 6

I think I did alright for 2018.

Offline Proponent

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Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #105 on: 11/03/2018 01:45 pm »
6 - Proposal for putting Orion on Vulcan or New Glenn is considered - Senator from Alabama throws fit

It was considered, after a fashion, in 2017, though not specifically on Vulcan or New Glenn.

Offline scienceguy

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Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #106 on: 11/03/2018 03:56 pm »
Well, others are jumping the gun so I may as well see how I did:

SpaceX will reach orbit 27 times with Falcon 9, and 2 times with Falcon Heavy.

Spacex reached orbit 17 times so far with Falcon 9, so I will give myself 17/27 or 0.63 on that one

SpaceX will recover 100% of the first stage boosters that they try to.

Yes, this was essentially correct. 1 point.

There will be a carbon nanotube/graphene production breakthrough. The effects will not be felt right away.

Nope. incorrect.

The NASA TESS spacecraft will launch without incident.

Almost: there was a minor incident. 0.5

The NASA Insight lander will launch after a minor delay.

This one launched without incident: 0.5

I had the previous two reversed!

Mars will make it closest approach to Earth in 15 years, so there will be fake news circulating around Facebook about Mars being as big as a full moon, just like that email from 15 years ago.

This one was bang on. And funny. 1 point.

An Earth-size planet will be found in the habitable zone of Epsilon Eridani, just 10.5 light years away. The discovery will not be 100% certain, though, as E. Eridani is quite an active star.

Nope. incorrect.

SpaceX's circumlunar tourist flight will be delayed till 2019.

Also correct. 1 point.

SLS and Orion will be canceled, to be replaced by an orbital spaceplane.

Totally wrong. 0 points.

Japan's SELENE-2 will launch without incident.

Wrong. Mission was canceled.

Well I got 4.63/10 or 46.3%. That's my best ever
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Offline Journeyman

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Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #107 on: 11/03/2018 04:30 pm »
Well, others are jumping the gun so I may as well see how I did:



The NASA TESS spacecraft will launch without incident.

Almost: there was a minor incident. 0.5



Really? I don't remember reading anything about a minor incident with the TESS launch. Please point me to the source of that.

Offline scienceguy

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Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #108 on: 11/03/2018 04:52 pm »
Well, others are jumping the gun so I may as well see how I did:



The NASA TESS spacecraft will launch without incident.

Almost: there was a minor incident. 0.5



Really? I don't remember reading anything about a minor incident with the TESS launch. Please point me to the source of that.

I think you're right. I couldn't find anything either. I guess that's another 0.5 point for me! 5.13 out of 10! I passed!
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Offline JH

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Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #109 on: 11/03/2018 05:56 pm »
There will be a carbon nanotube/graphene production breakthrough. The effects will not be felt right away.

Nope. incorrect.

This might satisfy your prediction.

https://www.techradar.com/news/mass-produced-graphene-mit-may-have-cracked-it

Also, commissioning of TESS took slightly longer than anticipated, delaying first results. That might be what you were remembering.
« Last Edit: 11/03/2018 05:57 pm by JH »

Offline scienceguy

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Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #110 on: 11/04/2018 06:33 pm »
OK so with those corrections I got 5.63/10. Thanks for your help everyone
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Offline tonyq

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Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #111 on: 11/04/2018 10:21 pm »
I’ll keep my contribution short, and specific. I hope to be able to publish a little more detail, in early 2018, but I wanted to initiate it, prior to the end of 2017, in the spirit of the ‘predictions’ threads!

I anticipate, that during 2018, this woman will be revealed as the next ‘Space Tourist’ or perhaps more correctly, as a Commercial Astronaut.

Her name is Johanna Maislinger.  She is 32, and lives in Munich, but she is actually Austrian. She is an airline pilot (Boeing 777-200 Aerologic), a mechanical engineer, and is almost qualified, as a  medical doctor. For hobbies, she is an aerobatic pilot, sky-diver, mountaineer, cross-country, and downhill skier. A generally very smart and adventurous lady!

After being eliminated from the German ‘Die Astronautin’ project, she has spent much of 2017 involved with a major German conglomerate, as a possible ‘sponsor’ for her to make a commercial spaceflight to the ISS, in 2019 or 2020.

At present, the availability of ‘commercial’ Soyuz seats to the ISS, hinges upon SpaceX and Boeing reducing NASA’s reliance on Soyuz. Let’s see what happens with this one! 😉

As we enter November, and the end of 2018 is in sight, it’s time for an update on this project.

Clearly, it has not moved forward as quickly as Frau Maislinger and her apparent sponsors had hoped. The UAE government have taken the only Soyuz seat available in 2019, and the Soyuz MS-10 anomaly will probably mean that there will be no seats available in 2020 either.

Despite this, Maislinger has started referring to herself as a “Pilotin Raumfahrtprogramm” (Pilot, Spaceflight Programme) on this website.

www.schoolofsuccess.me



There is more to come on this one, I am sure, but exactly when, who knows!

Offline Svetoslav

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Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #112 on: 12/13/2018 04:35 pm »
Quote
3. Virgin Galactic: There will be powered flights in 2018, but they will be less frequent than anticipated (once per three weeks). Manned flight to space (above 80kms, the boundary used in the USA for space) will occur in November 2018 at the earliest, more likely in 2019.

Got it right :)

Offline Bubbinski

Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #113 on: 12/16/2018 05:51 pm »
Here’s how I did:

1. WRONG - thankfully! At the time North Korea was looking like the balloon would go up at any moment. However, world tensions remain high and any large conflict will have effects on space travel (notably possibility of debris events, realignment of alliances, etc.).

2. WRONG (mostly) - still 20-21 launches for SX is an excellent year. And there WAS a wow factor with the Falcon Heavy launch. (Cars in space, anyone?). No uncrewed CC flights yet but close.

3. WRONG (mostly) - although SS2 Unity did fly over 50 miles this week.

4. WRONG - though Stratolaunch has done taxi tests

5. RIGHT - Electron now operational, everyone in that bullet point flew successfully, and the Russians did have that failed Soyuz launch in October.

6. HALF RIGHT - no impassioned world peace plea, but ISS did make it through crewed and there were anxious moments caused by that aforementioned Soyuz launch failure (MS-10 abort).

7. RIGHT (mostly) - most of these missions did indeed fly successfully, although Chandrayaan pushed back to Jan 2019. One of the rovers is still trucking, Opportunity is sadly still silent after the June dust storm.

8. HALF RIGHT - the prize award conditions weren’t met, Lunar X-prize is now history

9. HALF RIGHT - TESS is indeed discovering new worlds, but Planet 9 not found yet. Super Earth found nearby (Barnard’s Star or Epsilon Eridani). No confirmed exomoon yet.

10. HALF RIGHT - Chris Gebhardt and I covered the TESS launch for NSF! Grand time in FL. Finished the orbiter part of my shuttle stack/launch pad project. No LEGO Shuttle release though :(

Okay here goes....

- the balloon goes up in one of the big geopolitical hotspots and missiles go flying. Military satellites and their handlers “burn the midnight oil” and a few of them are destroyed or damaged. The world is saved from all out destruction in the barest nick of time but hundreds of thousands or even several millions of lives and a few cities are still lost. Space priorities change somewhat and space debris mitigation plus satellite replacements become top priority.

- despite the war, SpaceX gets in 22 F9 and 2 Falcon Heavy launches, all successful. The first Heavy flies in January and its payload delivers quite the “wow” factor that has the public talking. 2 SpaceX flights will be last minute satellite launches ordered up by the Pentagon. The Dragon 2 launches on an un-crewed flight successfully late in the year as does the Starliner, but crewed flights postponed till early 2019 due to delays.

- Blue Origin flies people above the Karman line on New Shepard in the fall. Virgin Galactic also flies above the Karman line with a limited load to prove its space capabilities.

- Stratolaunch makes its first flight and is pressed into service late in the year launching Pegasus rockets to fly a couple of urgently needed satellites, also contracted by the Pentagon to fly outsized cargo.

- Electron, ULA, Orbital ATK, Arianespace all fly (most of) their manifests successfully, though a few payloads are delayed to 2019. China comes back from 2017’s problems, so does India. Russia suffers at least one failure. Japanese program shines as a bright spot for that country with successful military launches.

- ISS makes it through the year crewed and undamaged though with plenty of anxious moments due to debris concerns and world politics. The crew members serve as an inspirational example of international cooperation that is frequently commented on in the media, their impassioned plea for world peace is broadcast worldwide during the worst of the global crisis.

- Insight launches successfully in May and lands safely on Mars too, the landing is cheered on by an American public (and world) in need of something to cheer for, and Osiris-Rex, BepiColombo, Chandrayaan, Chang’e, Hayabusa 2 also make positive headlines and inspire the world, and the Mars rovers and Juno keep on trucking.

- One Lunar X-prize flight launches into space, but the prize award conditions aren’t met.

- Planet 9 is discovered. TESS launches and starts its discoveries. At least one possible Earth-like planet is discovered nearby (less than 20 light years from us), and an exomoon is finally confirmed.

- I finally make it to at least one launch. (TESS, Insight, Dragon, Starliner are possibilities). I also finish at least one space related model. The Lego Space Shuttle in same scale as the Saturn is green lighted and I get one after some difficulty.
I'll even excitedly look forward to "flags and footprints" and suborbital missions. Just fly...somewhere.

Online Lar

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Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #114 on: 12/16/2018 08:11 pm »
My scoring on Predictions for 2018
>> original post:   https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44307.msg1759927#msg1759927

- SpaceX will not lose any payloads this year and will end the year with a robust flight cadence.  (I guessed 30 in the poll)
   >> Zuma means can't score that first part as a qualified success. And I was optimistic, looks like 21. That's still "robust" though so ... sort of right

- SpaceX will launch less than 3 missions with expendable cores
   >> Nope, they expended more than that... (8 on purpose)

- SpaceX will recover at least 95% of the cores they attempt to recover
   >> close... 2 misses, FH center and CRS-16 (floaty doesn't count)

- FH will launch at least twice, at least once successfully
   >> Nope. Only once, although the mission was a success

- BC will not launch anything in 2018 but progress will be made
   >> Yep. A fair bit of progress, and the pace is accelerating, but no launches from Boca Chica this year.

- We'll see a "full duration" firing of a Raptor in essentially flight configuration
   >> Sort of.

- We'll see a testbed vehicle using Raptors to reduce BFS risk unveiled but it won't fly
   >> Unless there is a reveal shortly, nope

- CommsX constellation will see at least the first two test satellites launched (rideshare)
   >> Yes, Tintin A and B are up there, that's a win

- TBC will win at least one major infrastructure project and start serious tunneling
   >> Yes, Chicago OHare express, that's a win

- Dragon 2 will enter service, or at least trials, including with passengers
   >> Nope. Almost, but nope. And no passengers.

- Tesla will unveil a rover prototype
   >> Nope

- SpaceX will solve fairing recovery and by the end of the year (say, last 4 missions) at least 1/2 of recoverable fairings will be recovered
   >> Nope, although I think they solved it by saying wet is OK

- Elon will keynote IAC again but the 17->18 changes in BFR/S will be less than the 16->17 changes, indicating design maturity
   >> Nope... hahahaha was I ever wrong abou tthat one.

- Starliner will not launch any passengers in 2018
   >> Correct

- ULA will select BE4 over AJ for Vulcan
    >> Correct

- ULA will get closer to ACES but won't be all the way there
   >> No significant progress I can see

- ULA will launch at least one IVF experiment on a Centaur
(repeats of last year)
   >> Nope

- ULA will remain in denial about reuse even as SpaceX eats their lunch
   >> Yep

- Blue will launch New Shepard at least 4 times, all with paying cargo. no humans though.
   >> I think they eked out 4 launches but not sure if all 4 were with paying cargo. Or any, actually. I think still under experimental license

- Blue will unveil a New Glen vehicle of some sort (fit test, static test article, etc) and make progress on their pad.
   >> Not really.  Some progress on pad and factory though

- Jeff Bezos will make at least one snarky and patently false comment about SpaceX, or will be snarky instead of congratulatory when SpaceX does something historic
   >> Not publicly...

- Blue will continue to be way less open than SpaceX
   >> Yep

- SLS will not be cancelled but will slip in some way...
   >> Yep

- Rocketlabs Electron will launch at least 4 times. At least two launches will be a success.
   >> Nope, only 3, but all were good

- VG won't launch paying passengers
   >> Yep

- NSF will debut a new look and many people will whinge about it
   >> Yep

- Tapatalk signatures will continue to plague forum posts
   >> Yep


Overall, I got some gimmes. Mostly dismal other than that.
« Last Edit: 12/18/2018 06:25 pm by Lar »
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline Gliderflyer

Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #115 on: 12/16/2018 09:58 pm »
Wow, really had to wait for the last minute for some of these.

Couple of easy ones, but I’m trying to be better than my 2017 predictions.

Orbital Vehicles:
- Falcon Heavy will fly, but not in January.
Correct
Quote
- No Falcon 9 will be reused more than 3 times.
Also correct
Quote
- BFR will drop the cradle landing, and the ship design will change again.
No mention of cradle landings (although the booster still lacks legs), but the ship has indeed changed again (and then again). Partial credit.
Quote
- Agile Aero won’t make any major progress.
No website updates or hypersonic facetmobiles, so probably true.
Quote
- At least one group will have a LOX and carbon/epoxy ignition event.
Nothing public, but Ulmer gaskets worked occasionally too.
Quote
- Rocket Lab will fly at least 3 times.
Correct
Quote
- Blue Origin will get to full power and duration on BE-4, and unveil some New Glenn hardware.
No New Glenn hardware, and I don’t think BE-4 got to full power (although I think it is close)
Quote
- ULA will downselect to BE-4 / RL10 for Vulcan and ACES.
Yes for BE-4, still unknown for ACES (although Centaur V will use RL10s)
Quote
- No private companies will successfully land on the Moon.
Unfortunately correct; not even any unsuccessful landings.
Quote
Suborbital Vehicles:
- While some of the XCOR IP may trickle into the world, it won’t have a Firefly / EXOS type of restart.
No apparent restart. I have seen what looks like some of the tech trickling into other projects, so correct.
Quote
- Masten will continue to fly, but won’t do any major envelope expansion.
Unfortunately true (still waiting for the XA-1.0)
Quote
- Masten will get to thermal steady state on their 25k methane engine, but won’t integrate pumps.
I don’t have my flight line window anymore so I can't be sure, but nothing public.
Quote

- SS2 will get to 80 km “space”, but not 100 km space.
Bingo! Glad they finally pulled it off.
Quote
- SS2 will do at least one powered flight from Spaceport America.
Not this year, but maybe next year…
Quote
- Vector will get above 100 km, but not to orbit.
Ha. No.
Quote
- Blue Origin will do 7 New Shepard flights, but only one with people.
Very wrong. One of these years they might approach something resembling a flight rate, but it is not this year.
I tried it at home

Offline philw1776

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Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #116 on: 12/17/2018 04:11 pm »
Re: Predictions for 2018
Source: « Reply #38 on: 12/30/2017 04:56 PM » on my Page 2

1. FH finally flies with 2 or more successful flights in 2018
FH flew but only once

2. No crewed Dragon 2 flight to ISS in 2018
Correct

3. No crewed flight around the moon in 2018
Correct

4. 2 or more Falcon class recovered cores re-used at least 2 times
Wrong. Only 1 reused twice.

5. Raptor @ full BFR design level thrust fired successfully, shown at IAC
WRONG, plus no IAC presentation by Elon in 2018

6. No actual launch pad construction at Boca Chica
Correct in the literal sense as intended.  New construction ongoing at Boca though.

7. SpaceX begins launching their satellite constellation
Wrong!  (Just visualize Jim when reading this)

8. No Raptor upper stage being developed for F9 or FH
Correct

9. SpaceX recovers fairings successfully, but no 2018 re-flight.
Wrong.  I'm not counting the splashed fairing they claim is reuseable.

10. SLS slips into 2020
Correct

11. BO makes additional flights, but no commercial customer flights in 2018
Correct.  Admittedly less flying than I'd anticipated.

12. No Google Lunar prize winner
Correct.

13. No SETI signal received
Correct

14. No Planet 9 discovery
Correct

15. Virgin Galactic finally makes powered test flights
Correct

16. Congress finally confirms NASA Administrator
Correct

17. ITER continues to suck up money employing physicists in a jobs program
Correct. Dropping this easy layup from next year's list.
« Last Edit: 12/17/2018 04:14 pm by philw1776 »
FULL SEND!!!!

Offline saliva_sweet

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Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #117 on: 12/20/2018 08:49 pm »
Vulcan CDR will be "making progress", but will not complete in 2018.

Not sure. The last update was AFAIK was from january 2018 when it was "underway and going well" according to Tory Bruno. No update since. Is it complete. Were there two CDRs for both engine candidates?

Engine downselect will not occur officially. The reality is that Vulcan is not going to happen.

Wrong. BE-4 was selected. I still have doubts about ULAs motivation to make the Vulcan. I doubt any meaningful progress will happen as long as they can still get RD-180s. So indefinitely.

Instead, New Glenn launch site will be completed and hardware will materialize.

Wrong

New shapard will make one unmanned flight.

Wrong. Two flights.

Both commercial crew companies (Boeing and SpaceX) will complete uncrewed tests, neither will fly with crew.

Wrong. No flights.

SpaceX will have a launch failure of a brand new core.

Wrong.

Other countries beside US will not make appreciable progress the field of space.

Debatable. China has launched another moon mission.

edit: except, debatably, New Zealand. Rocket lab will launch three times.

Saved by the edit. Got that one right.

Online Lar

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Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #118 on: 12/20/2018 11:40 pm »
SpaceX will have a launch failure of a brand new core.

Wrong.
 
I'd give ya half credit for that one... There was a failure with a brand new core but it was a landing issue, primary mission was a success.
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"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline jongoff

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Re: Predictions for 2018
« Reply #119 on: 12/21/2018 02:39 am »
Seems like the time of the year to review how we did with our predictions.

I only did so-so last year (about half of my predictions were mostly or all the way right, but a third were completely or mostly wrong), so let me take another shot at it this year:

1- SpaceX: I predict they'll have a successful Falcon Heavy first flight, and will have at least 20 flights, including at least an uncrewed Dragon 2 flight to ISS. I predict they won't have any outright flight failures again this year, showing that they've arrived when it comes to maintaining a high flight rate with good reliability. They'll continue to recover most first stages, and will continue to refly reused first stages. I'll even go so far as to say they'll succeed in recovering intact at least one PLF half. Their flight around the Moon will get delayed by at least a year. I'll predict that they won't have a crewed Dragon V2 flight before the end of the year but they'll be close.

I was right on FH, being >20flts, no outright failures, recovering most first stages, continuing to refly used first stages, the flight around the Moon getting delayed by at least a year, and not having a Dragon V2 flight by the end of the year. Wrong on recovering a PLF half and wrong on the uncrewed Dragon V2 flight. So call it 7 out of 9 for SpaceX.

Quote
2- Blue Origin: I predict they'll finally get BE-4 to a full-throttle test this year, though development will continue to take longer than expected. I expect them to also carry out at least a half dozen more New Shepard flights, but won't get to a crewed flight during 2018, but will be almost there.

For Blue, I was right no them not getting to a crewed flight in 2018, and that development will continue to take longer than expected. I don't think Blue has said anywhere that they've taken the BE-4 to full throttle yet, so I'll count that as wrong, and I was definitely wrong about >6 New Shephard flights. So I'd say 2 out of 4 for Blue Origin.

Quote
3- ULA: I predict they'll have a successful year with no failures or major anomalies. They'll finally downselect to BE-4 for Vulcan propulsion, though potentially not till late in the year. Steady progress, but relative to SpaceX they'll be seen as falling further and further behind.

I think I nailed all of three of these: no failures/anomalies, downselect to BE-4 for Vulcan late in the year, steady progress on Vulcan but seen as falling further and further behind. 3 of 3 for ULA.

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4- Boeing: Their XS-1 project will not go off the rails this year, though I'm skeptical it'll make it to flight. CST-100 will have an uncrewed flight before the end of the year, but will not have a crewed flight in 2018.

Right on XS-1 not going off the rails this year, and on not having a crewed flight in 2018. Wrong on them getting an uncrewed flight off before the end of the year. 2 of 3 for Boeing.
 
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5- VG/VO: VG will finally get to powered flight testing of SS2, but once again won't get into commercial operations in 2018. They'll get to captive carry testing early in the year, with a first launch attempt late in the year. With the historical data on launcher first flights, I'll guess they don't make it all the way to orbit, but can gather enough data that their second flight will (but likely in 2019).

I think my second sentence about captive carry testing was referring to VO with LauncherOne (based on context), so...

I was right that VG would get to powered flight testing of SS2, right that they wouldn't be in commercial ops yet. Right that they got into captive carry testing of LauncherOne, but wrong about the timing, and wrong about the first launch attempt happening this year. I'd say 2.5 out of 4 for VG/VO.

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6- RocketLabs: RL will successfully get Electron into orbit by mid-year, on one of its next three launches. After that, they'll begin regular launches, though at a low rate--say 3 successful orbital launches this year.

I'd say I nailed these predictions -- 2 of 2 for RL.

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7- Other Smallsat Launchers: Vector will not make an orbital launch attempt (with a vehicle with enough performance to actually have a shot of reaching orbit) this year. However either they or someone else will make at least one launch that crosses the Karman line this year (if I had to bet, I'd say Ventions beats them to this feat). At least one US venture will raise at least $10M to go after a partially reusable smallsat launch vehicle (with at least first-stage full-stage recovery).

I was right that Vector wouldn't fly, but wrong that anyone other than RL would cross the von Karman line this year (Astra had a launch with a vehicle that theoretically had the performance to do the job, but didn't make it to 100km), and wrong that a US venture would raise at least $10M to do a partially reusable smallsat launcher (I only count it as partially reusable if they're trying to reuse at least one of the rocket-powered stages). So 1 of 3 for other smallsat launchers.

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8- Masten: Still ticking, but with no major new launch vehicle initiatives

I'm not sure if winning a CLPS contract counts. I'd call it 1 for 1 in that they're still alive.

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9- Bridenstine will get re-nominated for NASA Admin, and will get confirmed in the Senate by a squeaker (with Mike Pence having to cast a tie-breaking vote). They may wait until a Dem or two is out sick to hold the vote.

I'd call this more or less right, 1 for 1.

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10- Moon: In the NASA budget request, there will not be a dramatic (>$1B) increase to NASA's budget to pay for the new Moon focus. There'll be some reshifting of priorities, and slightly more emphasis on public-private partnerships, but nothing so drastic as the previous two direction changes (CxP and FY2011). Nobody will win the GLXP before it expires.

I'd also call this right, 3 for 3.

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11- Mars: Mars Insight launch and landing will go off without a hitch.

Thankfully I got this one right. 1 for 1.

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10- Megaconstellations: At least two of the three of OneWeb, SpaceX, and Telesat will launch pathfinder satellites in 2018. OneWeb will finish closing the financing necessary to launch their first constellation. At least one other megaconstellation will get FCC approval before the end of the year.

Right on the first one (SpaceX and Telesat), and on at least one other megaconstellation getting FCC approval (Telesat and SpaceX). Wrong on OneWeb closing its financing. 2 for 3 on megaconstellations.

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11- Exoplanets: like last year I'll predict that at least one new earth-like exoplanet will be found within the habitable zone of a star within 25LY of earth. Also, the TESS spacecraft will successfully launch.

I lost track of exoplanet research this year, but I don't recall hearing about any new earth-like exoplanets in nearby habitable zones. But Tess did launch successfully. So I'll call it 1 for 2 for exoplanets.

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12- Mergers: At least one other major aerospace M&A event will occur this year. I wish it would be someone buying ULA off its parents, but I'm not holding my breath.

Yes on a merger (I think NG buying OATK counts), and yes on it not being someone buying out ULA. I'm going to count that as 2 for 2. :-)

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13- SLS/Orion: Neither will be canceled again, but there will be at least another 6 months of slippage.

Depressingly accurate on both of these too. 2 for 2 for the porkmasters.



So overall 32.5/43 or about a bit over 75% right. Decent, but definitely no Nostradamus. My biggest misses were related to commercial crew flights and Blue stepping up the pace of New Shepard flights.

~Jon

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