Author Topic: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 1  (Read 640932 times)

Offline R.Simko

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Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #80 on: 10/03/2014 11:01 pm »
Now that the CCtCAP awards have been awarded, even though they are now under protest, I think it's time for a new poll.  We have hundreds of pages of people debating who is ahead in CC.  Well the poll can be a very simple one.

Which company will be the first to fly people to the ISS?

1.  Boeing.
2.  SpaceX
3.  SNC  for those who think they will be successful in their protest.

I know a similar poll created in the past, but I think it was removed, or at least I haven't been able to find it.

Online oiorionsbelt

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Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #81 on: 10/03/2014 11:03 pm »
Now that the CCtCAP awards have been awarded, even though they are now under protest, I think it's time for a new poll.  We have hundreds of pages of people debating who is ahead in CC.  Well the poll can be a very simple one.

Which company will be the first to fly people to the ISS?

1.  Boeing.
2.  SpaceX
3.  SNC  for those who think they will be successful in their protest.

I know a similar poll created in the past, but I think it was removed, or at least I haven't been able to find it.
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33739.0

Offline SoulWager

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Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #82 on: 10/04/2014 12:36 pm »
Now that the CCtCAP awards have been awarded, even though they are now under protest, I think it's time for a new poll.  We have hundreds of pages of people debating who is ahead in CC.  Well the poll can be a very simple one.

Which company will be the first to fly people to the ISS?

1.  Boeing.
2.  SpaceX
3.  SNC  for those who think they will be successful in their protest.

I know a similar poll created in the past, but I think it was removed, or at least I haven't been able to find it.
I thought SpaceX would send the first commercial crew to the ISS before the CCtCap awards, and that hasn't changed.

Offline Mike Harris-Stone

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Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #83 on: 10/05/2014 03:40 am »
A very informative article today in the Denver Post on the mechanics of the protest and the various ways it can play out:

http://www.denverpost.com/business/ci_26659843/so-sierra-nevada-protested-nasa-space-taxi-contract

Offline Ben the Space Brit

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Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #84 on: 10/05/2014 06:11 pm »
Here's a prediction: During the pause for the review of this award, SpaceX will continue to progress although the rate will be much slower. Boeing, on the other hand will set down tools and wait, costing them the lead that NASA reports they had going into the CCtCAP award.

This is not Boeing hate. Boeing has stated explicitly that progress with CST-100 is tied to government funding. SpaceX have said that they'll proceed at their own pace using their own funding. If the government orders a stop, then Boeing will stop but no-one can stop Elon and his investors spending heir own money on Dragon v.2 and LC-39A if they choose to do so.
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Offline erioladastra

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Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #85 on: 10/05/2014 06:30 pm »
Here's a prediction: During the pause for the review of this award, SpaceX will continue to progress although the rate will be much slower. Boeing, on the other hand will set down tools and wait, costing them the lead that NASA reports they had going into the CCtCAP award.

This is not Boeing hate. Boeing has stated explicitly that progress with CST-100 is tied to government funding. SpaceX have said that they'll proceed at their own pace using their own funding. If the government orders a stop, then Boeing will stop but no-one can stop Elon and his investors spending heir own money on Dragon v.2 and LC-39A if they choose to do so.

If not Boeing hate it clearly still shows a very strong anti-Boeing bias.  You are confusing Boeing's approach here considerably.  Boeing has stated that a commercial market, in their opinion (and hotly debated here - don't need to rehash here again) to sustain development of their vehicle.  Their vehicle, like NASA likes to see, is more (some might say over) engineered than purely commercial development would support in their opinion.  So, yes, until CCtCAP they stated they were depending on government money.  Boeing has NOT stopped as far as I can tell.  Slowed yes, but not stopped.  Also, has I have said many, many times here, right now I personally believe the long pole is going to be integration from NASA.  So even if the companies are making their own progress, they will continue to fall behind on the schedule just because NASA CCP and ISS can't work with them. 

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Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #86 on: 10/05/2014 08:29 pm »
right now I personally believe the long pole is going to be integration from NASA.  So even if the companies are making their own progress, they will continue to fall behind on the schedule just because NASA CCP and ISS can't work with them. 

Kenny Todd had what seemed like a perfect opportunity to talk about this in his intro to the recent ISS spacewalk briefing. He touched on the upcoming EVA work that would be done in preparation for docked commercial crew vehicles, and talked like everything was good and on track.

He is Space Station Mission Operations Integration Manager; surely he would be aware? Is NASA prohibited from commenting on this? Or is it just a preference to keep fear, uncertainty and doubt out of sight?
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Offline clongton

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Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #87 on: 10/05/2014 08:53 pm »
If not Boeing hate it clearly still shows a very strong anti-Boeing bias. 

No it doesn't. It shows an unbiased view of both Boeing and SpaceX.

Boeing is driven by shareholder value. SpaceX is driven by Elon's dream. Each company will follow the path most appropriate for it. Both paths are good. Neither are bad. They are just different.
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Offline rcoppola

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Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #88 on: 10/05/2014 10:06 pm »
I believe Gerst did what he thought was best for NASA. I infer his reasoning to be sound, at least from what has been leaked, reported thus far.

Essentially he selected one company with massive spaceflight heritage both in terms of management and technical experience. He views this as buying down risk and ensuring NASA's needs are met on schedule. (The cost of that buy-down is certainly subject to questioning but not the reasoning behind the selection imo)

Then he selected another company who he believes will be an exceptional partner both in terms of capability and costs but that still needs to mature to the point where their "estimated" timelines become more closely aligned with their "actual" timelines.

Frankly, and in all honesty, I was in a bit of denial with my desire to see two novices re-shape the future of commercial spaceflight. But in retrospect, there was little chance NASA was going to take on that much perceived potential risk. Perhaps this will be amended in future contracts whether crew or cargo.

The major issue remaining for me is that one of the main tenets of CC was to help drive down costs through competition and heaping to create a truly commercial market beyond NASA. I'm not sure in the final analysis the program has achieved those goals in full. Perhaps it was unrealistic to think it could just yet. But i'd like to see how this evolves once the initial CCtCAP contract ends and they compete another round of contracts with systems already developed.
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Offline clongton

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Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #89 on: 10/05/2014 10:23 pm »
I believe Gerst did what he thought was best for NASA.

I do not doubt that he did that. The open question is "did he stick to the selection criteria", and "will the GAO agree"?
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I started my career on the Saturn-V F-1A engine

Offline rcoppola

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Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #90 on: 10/05/2014 10:31 pm »
I believe Gerst did what he thought was best for NASA.

I do not doubt that he did that. The open question is "did he stick to the selection criteria", and "will the GAO agree"?
Yes, it's an interesting question. I suspect if NASA had to do it over, they'd have worded things a  bit differently.
My only point was agree with the end result from their perspective,  not necessarily how they got there.
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Offline Wayne Hale

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Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #91 on: 10/09/2014 06:31 pm »
NASA just sent out return to work orders . . . .

Offline CraigLieb

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Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #92 on: 10/09/2014 06:52 pm »
NASA just sent out return to work orders . . . .
any public link to that?
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Offline Coastal Ron

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Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #93 on: 10/09/2014 07:27 pm »
NASA just sent out return to work orders . . . .

So what does that mean?
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline Lars-J

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Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #94 on: 10/09/2014 07:31 pm »
Perhaps...
A) NASA found a loop hole that allows them to keep working, or
B) The SNC protest has been pulled or denied early?

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Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #95 on: 10/09/2014 07:32 pm »
An agency may override the automatic stay initiated by a GAO protest by issuing a determination that there are compelling reasons not to wait for completion of the GAO process before allowing contract award or work to proceed.

That is an agency administrative action and no court is involved.  The GAO has no authority to reverse or otherwise prevent an agency override.  The only entity which can reverse an agency override is a Federal Claims Court.

In short, NASA could at any time effectively ignore the GAO (for the moment) and allow work to proceed under CCtCap by issuing an override.

Is this what just happened?
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Offline newpylong

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Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #96 on: 10/09/2014 08:21 pm »
Game on.

http://www.nasa.gov/exploration/commercial/crew/index.html#.VDbt-vldW9E

"On Oct. 9, under statutory authority available to it, NASA has decided to proceed with the Commercial Crew Transportation Capability (CCtCap) contracts awarded to The Boeing Company and Space Exploration Technologies Corp. notwithstanding the bid protest filed at the U.S. Government Accountability Office by Sierra Nevada Corporation. The agency recognizes that failure to provide the CCtCap transportation service as soon as possible poses risks to the International Space Station (ISS) crew, jeopardizes continued operation of the ISS, would delay meeting critical crew size requirements, and may result in the U.S. failing to perform the commitments it made in its international agreements. These considerations compelled NASA to use its statutory authority to avoid significant adverse consequences where contract performance remained suspended. NASA has determined that it best serves the United States to continue performance of the CCtCap contracts that will enable safe and reliable travel to and from the ISS from the United States on American spacecraft and end the nation’s sole reliance on Russia for such transportation. "

Offline king1999

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Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #97 on: 10/09/2014 09:52 pm »
I am relieved. 100 days is too long to hold up even though I kind of support SNC's protest.

Offline docmordrid

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Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #98 on: 10/09/2014 10:23 pm »
GAME ON indeed - they basically played the 'national interest' card.  Tough one to counter.
« Last Edit: 10/09/2014 10:24 pm by docmordrid »
DM

Offline Rocket Science

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Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #99 on: 10/09/2014 10:31 pm »
All fine and good... but that doesn’t alter the complaint...
"The laws of physics are unforgiving"
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