Like they have done in the previous 45 years, they expect ESA to come up with the money to change things. Very much old-space way of doing things: sucking the governments teats. And that doesn't bode well for the long-term future of Arianespace IMO.
Let Europe first regain an independent crew launch capability!Humans are evolved to live on earth. Just explore with robotics.In LEO a manned or human tended space station could be useful. But as of now Italy is wasting hundreds of millions, of European funding on Avio.In the 2023 to 2025 period close to a billion Euro is being waisted of Ariane 6 transition and these Avio programs.There goes the funding that could have been used to develop crew launch capability by around 2030.
"It is not possible that in 18 months, in Europe, we argue about what to do and why, and in China they build a space station..."
Bezos puts a billion a year into space without batting an eye, here a miracle is needed for a budget increase of ~700 million
Linked to this discussion:Samantha Cristoforetti is worried about the future of European Space Exploration: "Do we want to be Leader or Passenger?"
Once humans get involved into spaceflight, budgets go into billions before any science can get done. So just be passenger for human spaceflight.
Quote from: lenny97 on 05/12/2023 08:36 amLinked to this discussion:Samantha Cristoforetti is worried about the future of European Space Exploration: "Do we want to be Leader or Passenger?"Rather ironic coming from an astronaut who merrily flew to space TWICE as a passenger.
Entirely Dismissing a *National* crewed spacecraft made in Europe , in a timespan probably not even significantly longer than 15 years, would however be a mistake, especially thanks to general improvements in designing and manufacturing and the growth of the space economy. Said National spacecraft could then have its service sold to the ESA.
Quote from: TheKutKu on 06/21/2023 09:00 amEntirely Dismissing a *National* crewed spacecraft made in Europe , in a timespan probably not even significantly longer than 15 years, would however be a mistake, especially thanks to general improvements in designing and manufacturing and the growth of the space economy. Said National spacecraft could then have its service sold to the ESA.Obviously she wasn't thinking of a national spacecraft of a european country when whe said "we". But can you tell us which european countries are most likely to be the first to develop a national spacecraft?
Quote from: friendly3 on 06/21/2023 12:36 pmQuote from: TheKutKu on 06/21/2023 09:00 amEntirely Dismissing a *National* crewed spacecraft made in Europe , in a timespan probably not even significantly longer than 15 years, would however be a mistake, especially thanks to general improvements in designing and manufacturing and the growth of the space economy. Said National spacecraft could then have its service sold to the ESA.Obviously she wasn't thinking of a national spacecraft of a european country when whe said "we". But can you tell us which european countries are most likely to be the first to develop a national spacecraft?Well Germany seems the more likely place, especially as a Private-led National rather than Public-led National endeavour, but as I said, the lowering bar of entry in established skills, organisations and industrial capability may create surprises. Maybe medium countries like Spain or Sweden could be it! The favourable circumstances that have been historically necessary to the development of Human Spaceflight may even be more likely in smaller countries.
What launcher would a notional "national" spacecraft be launched on? It is not going to be Ariane 6, for all the obvious reasons.
Quote from: TheKutKu on 06/21/2023 01:19 pmQuote from: friendly3 on 06/21/2023 12:36 pmQuote from: TheKutKu on 06/21/2023 09:00 amEntirely Dismissing a *National* crewed spacecraft made in Europe , in a timespan probably not even significantly longer than 15 years, would however be a mistake, especially thanks to general improvements in designing and manufacturing and the growth of the space economy. Said National spacecraft could then have its service sold to the ESA.Obviously she wasn't thinking of a national spacecraft of a european country when whe said "we". But can you tell us which european countries are most likely to be the first to develop a national spacecraft?Well Germany seems the more likely place, especially as a Private-led National rather than Public-led National endeavour, but as I said, the lowering bar of entry in established skills, organisations and industrial capability may create surprises. Maybe medium countries like Spain or Sweden could be it! The favourable circumstances that have been historically necessary to the development of Human Spaceflight may even be more likely in smaller countries.Europe does not have the equivalent of an Elon Musk, let alone the equivalent of a SpaceX. IMO right now, and in the foreseeable future, no European entity, private or public, will be in a position to develop a crewed access-to-space system, without significant input of public money.Remember: even SpaceX required $1.4B in public money support to field Crew Dragon. And they were only able to do so because they had the prior experience of developing Dragon 1. Which retired a LOT of risk and itself was done with a $300M injection of public funds.And that's just for the spacecraft itself. What launcher would a notional "national" spacecraft be launched on? It is not going to be Ariane 6, for all the obvious reasons. So, you're looking at not only developing the spacecraft, but its carrier rocket as well.So, even if Europe had the equivalent of a SpaceX (which it doesn't), the ESA member states or national governments would still have to contribute several billions of Euros to get things going. The last time ESA or national governments were willing to do so was in 1988. And it failed miserably in that it only resulted in a very expensive launcher and no spacecraft while costing twice what the entire package was supposed to cost.Recent technological advances do nothing to change this IMO. Just look at how Ariane 6 development is NOT being helped by those recent technological advances: it is late, it is obsolete and it is also substantially over budget.
Quote from: woods170 on 06/21/2023 01:44 pmWhat launcher would a notional "national" spacecraft be launched on? It is not going to be Ariane 6, for all the obvious reasons.Why not? As far as I can tell practically any launcher can be human rated if the organization who chooses human rating standards wants it to be.
Developing an Ariane 6 replacement will take 10 years. Developing a European crewed spacecraft will also take 10 years. So, by the time the crewed spacecraft is ready, Ariane 6 will be heading for retirement. As such, it makes no sense whatsoever to crew-rate Ariane 6. Instead, the next vehicle (Ariane 7 or whatever it will be called) will be crew-rated for the crewed spacecraft.
Quote from: woods170 on 06/22/2023 09:42 amDeveloping an Ariane 6 replacement will take 10 years. Developing a European crewed spacecraft will also take 10 years. So, by the time the crewed spacecraft is ready, Ariane 6 will be heading for retirement. As such, it makes no sense whatsoever to crew-rate Ariane 6. Instead, the next vehicle (Ariane 7 or whatever it will be called) will be crew-rated for the crewed spacecraft.That just means a decision of developing a crew capsule for:- A vehicle that will have had 10 years of service to get the bugs out and refine performance and operations
- A vehicle that will debut at the same time as the capsule, and will also be on the critical path for that capsule
Or:- A capsule that can be launched on Ariane 6, that has the capability to be launched on a future launcher too once one is availableThe latter option applies some constraints (e.g. capsule mass must be below the lowest of the two prospective launch vehicles) but affords schedule flexibility.