The ongoing ESA Council meeting is presenting this report by an advisory group calling for "a European Commercial LEO Station, Cargo and Crew Capabilities for the Gateway and the Moon, and sustained presence on the lunar surface."esamultimedia.esa.int/docs/corporate…
Cedric O, former French Secretary of State for the Digital Sector who served on the advisory group: I'm not certain there will be a future revolution in space, but the Americans and Chinese are betting on it; huge problem if Europe is not part of it.
He notes the drop in Europe's share of the commercial launch market from ~50% a decade ago to "almost out of the market" today is not because the US is spending more money, but because of emergence of more efficient players, like SpaceX.
A high-level advisory group in Europe says the continent should not only develop its own human spaceflight system, but also study the possibility of an "independent" European human landing on the Moon within 10 years.esamultimedia.esa.int/docs/corporate…
I love the ambition, but here's a reality check. It took ESA and Ariane a decade to develop Ariane 6, which was an upgraded version of the Ariane 5 rocket. The continent needs much more urgency, and a tripling of ESA's budget, to land on the Moon, on its own, in the 2030s.
The high-level group is correct, however, that in order to compete in space in the 2020s and beyond ESA must act differently. Will this be politically possible? I don't know.
Exactly. It's nice to finally see someone in Europe acknowledging reality rather than complaining about "huge subsidies" for SpaceX. If you want to compete in launch today you need to empower commercial entrepreneurs, not shove more money toward Ariane.
There were other Europeans noting this before.......
But I think it was rare to see these views surfaced during such public ESA meetings? Maybe I'm wrong about that.
We had another very dense Council yesterday and today, with many constructive discussions and important proposals and decision-making. New and/or moving Directors, ESA transformation, agreement signatures, new HQ!😅Get the recap below👇https://esa.int/ESA_Multimedia/Videos/2023/03/Media_information_session_from_ESA_s_315th_Council
To enhance compatibility between geo-return and competition, the policy of geo-return should increasingly shift towards a ‘fair contribution’ principle, that is to adjust the contribution of each Member State according to the outcome of the industrial competitions and to the actual share gained by its industry in these competitions. Several ESA programmes, especially in close-to-market sectors such as telecommunications, are already built in this manner.
With the need for immediate action in mind, the question is not who is next to put their boots on the Moon, but rather who will sustain a long-term presence.
For the future, we can foresee for example a European commercial crew capsule with a European astronaut as commander, and astronauts from Latin America, Asia and Africa onboard. This is the “European spirit” in space exploration as a strong partner open to the world.
Rather than designing, developing and operating space infrastructure a commercially-oriented procurement policy needs to be adopted: The public sector, through space agencies like ESA, shall define the requirements for large-scale infrastructure or missions, for example, a crew capsule, and encourage the private sector to propose the most innovative and cost-efficient solution. The public agency will be an anchor customer buying a service or product. In parallel, it will also develop technology building blocks to enable private companies to mature technologies needed to fulfil the services. The long-term commitment by public agencies is crucial for the private sector to attract funding. The US Commercial Crew Program as well as the Commercial Cargo Program are examples that have developed a successful commercial industry.
Europe needs to deeply transform its processes by building a framework that kindles real competition between European companies, and aggressively fosters the emergence of new actors. It is impossible to overlook that the major game-changer in space over the past few decades has been the emergence of new companies with often aggressive business models, such as those employed by SpaceX. They have completely reset the competition, and distorted market forces, largely thanks to a new procurement policy by NASA and the US Department of Defense, creating both a demand pull and a strong and competitive supply.To be able to get back in the exploration race, Europe must overhaul its approach and processes, otherwise, a reinforced ambition is unlikely to be deliverable. Such transformation must include private sector co-investment, new innovative financing structures, institutional challenge-based or service-based procurement, alleviating procurement constraints, and optimization of public-private financing models to stimulate private investment and industrial competitiveness. This has to be matched with sustained support to education providers, research and technology institutes and ensuring ESA’s own transformation.
While recognising the importance of collaborating with like-minded countries, Europe should strengthen its role by (i) revitalising multilateral efforts in space governance, (ii) playing a leading role in space law development to ensure a rule-based order in space, and (iii) pursuing a new ethic for explored frontiers to avoid repeating Earth-bound patterns.
Europe should design and implement a European Space Mission to establish an independent European presence in Earth orbit, lunar orbit, on the Moon, and beyond, including a European Commercial LEO Station, Cargo and Crew Capabilities for the Gateway and the Moon, and sustained presence on the lunar surface.
Europe should pursue symbiotic public private partnerships by embracing a culture of risk and reward-sharing, further lowering the cost of the entry ticket, reducing bureaucracy and fostering new sources of investment.
As part of the European Space Mission, we are calling upon ESA to prepare for the 2023 Space Summit: [...]-A scenario for independent and sustainable European human landing on the Moon within 10 years.
A.1 Mandate of the High-Level Advisory GroupAs provided in the Terms of Reference - ESA/C(2022)110 Annex 1, the Group’s mandate is to provide the Member States with an independent and objective high-level assessment regarding the (i) (geo)political, (ii) economic and (iii) societal relevance of human and robotic space exploration for Europe and recommended options for a way forward.
The advantage is that when you are an outside expert like Cedric O with not any official function, you can be more candid.This changes from the usual speech from Arianespace about the ugly subsidised SpaceX
Quote from: page 25 of the reportEurope needs to deeply transform its processes by building a framework that kindles real competition between European companies, and aggressively fosters the emergence of new actors.
Europe needs to deeply transform its processes by building a framework that kindles real competition between European companies, and aggressively fosters the emergence of new actors.
During this Council, a second confidential report was presented and will not be made public. It details what “European industry would be able to do in a very short time. We can do cargo [to LEO] with Ariane 64 from 2028, and certainly human spaceflight afterwards”. The idea is to use "Ariane 6 for cargo and manned flights in LEO then, in a second step, to the Gateway and then towards the lunar surface". At the beginning of April, the ESA will also "launch a call for ideas for in-depth studies of "end-to-end" architecture in LEO and lunar systems". It should be noted that, if the priority is the Moon, ESA will obviously also "carry out manned missions to 'post-ISS' private space stations around the Earth with the participation of European industry, during the next decade", would like to point out Didier Schmitt.
Unsurprisingly, the use of Ariane 6 brings some constraints mainly in terms of payload capacity. In its version with 4 boosters, the European launcher can send up to 25 tonnes into low orbit and 10 tonnes into trans-lunar orbit like the European lander Argonaut (EL3). ESA recommends a "cargo capable of carrying up to 4 or 5 tonnes of freight with the capacity to return 2 to 3 tonnes of equipment of all kinds to Earth". For lunar missions, ESA is aiming for “10-tonne vehicles capable of bringing back lunar samples from the Gateway. Another vehicle and its "tug" would be used to bring down our astronauts to the lunar surface from the Gateway.
Listen to my immediate reaction of the new report with @BBCAmos👉https://tv.prime-intra.net/tv/cu/2023/03/27/336ca35d1c7bebffcd75ea0cfb1a45d0e3dbacba6fe1ef04a1d2ba105701ae7b943d41fcc3b9f4d9e01b5175100e37dc7910e47b71fd052b2349e1dda67dc4df_1679894694000_1.mp4I want to know YOUR thoughts on #RevolutionSpace. Is this what you, as a European citizen, want for Europe? Comment below.Full report can be found here: https://esa.int/Science_Exploration/Human_and_Robotic_Exploration/Independent_advisory_group_presents_report_on_European_space_revolution_to_ESA
Extended interview, unfortunately in French, about what ESA intends to do with the conclusions of the GroupL’Europe ne « doit pas tergiverser et doit démarrer ce programme spatial dès aujourd’hui. Il y a une certaine urgence »
The primary objective is the low orbit before the Moon“Beyond Earth orbit, the objective is indeed the lunar surface”, affirms Didier Schmitt who, adding that “we are going to make proposals for options to the Member States in the coming months. The final decision will be made at the political level, the next deadline for which is the space summit in Seville on November 6 and 7”. To fund this program, which is not part of ESA's mandatory activities (space science programs and general budget), the necessary budget will therefore have to follow “through political awareness. First the objective, then the budget; it is indeed a question of new budgets and not of arbitration with other space sectors”.
