Author Topic: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread  (Read 436278 times)

Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1180 on: 09/25/2023 10:56 pm »
Still wonder why the most recent Starlink launches were delayed past the first windows on their respective launch days.

All SpaceX reports is "Now targeting [insert new T0 time here]". Nothing else.

My guess is simply because they are not fast enough. Past 2 launches have been at nearly exactly 4 day turnaround times, really pushing it. And sometimes weather does improve as the window goes on, but not all the time, and sometimes the improvement is 10% or less.

Offline ZachS09

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1181 on: 09/26/2023 01:40 am »
Still wonder why the most recent Starlink launches were delayed past the first windows on their respective launch days.

All SpaceX reports is "Now targeting [insert new T0 time here]". Nothing else.

My guess is simply because they are not fast enough. Past 2 launches have been at nearly exactly 4 day turnaround times, really pushing it. And sometimes weather does improve as the window goes on, but not all the time, and sometimes the improvement is 10% or less.

Your guess was my initial thought.

It's also unfortunate that there were some last-minute aborts not weather-related. And that's probably another sign of the team pushing as hard as they could. Especially with really old boosters.
« Last Edit: 09/26/2023 01:41 am by ZachS09 »
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Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1182 on: 10/10/2023 04:38 am »
https://arstechnica.com/space/2023/10/nasas-falcon-heavy-era-begins-this-week-with-launch-of-asteroid-mission/

Quote
SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy rocket is about to become a workhorse for NASA
"It’s an incredible capability for our nation. We’re fortunate to have it.

by Stephen Clark - Oct 10, 2023 12:19am GMT
37

You can consider this the start of NASA's Falcon Heavy era. The launch of the Psyche asteroid mission this week is the opening act among five launches the space agency has directly reserved on SpaceX's heavy-lift rocket over the next few years.

Later in the article:

Quote
So it's fair to say NASA is involved—directly or indirectly—in driving demand for nine of the 10 Falcon Heavy missions currently in SpaceX's backlog.

The article says 5 of the 9 are robotic missions (including Psyche and Europa Clipper), 2 are Astrobotic lunar lander missions and 2 are Gateway supply missions.  The 10th mission is for the Space Force later this year.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1183 on: 10/15/2023 08:46 pm »
https://twitter.com/kenkirtland17/status/1713610759031169116

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In the last 9.5 months, SpaceX has launched more Medium+ Lift Vehicles than all other US launch providers combined have since the beginning of 2016.
Nearly 8 years ago.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1184 on: 10/18/2023 07:32 pm »
https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/1714719039623176493

Quote
Gerst, in a quesiton about supply chains, mentioned SpaceX is still aiming for about 100 launches this year, increasing to 144 (12 per month) next year.

Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1185 on: 10/20/2023 01:47 pm »
https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/details/7253
Quote
Starlink Group 7-5
Launch Time
Sat Oct 21, 2023 3:39 AM EDT

Quote
Starlink Group 7-6
Launch Time
Fri Oct 27, 2023 2:59 AM EDT

If this happens, it would be just under a 6d turnaround at SLC-4E, potentially indicating an acceleration of operations out west.  Limiting factor would likely be OCISLY turnaround which is faster than JRTI/ASOG, only needing to depart PoLB ~2.2d to 2.4d before launch, and returning ~2.3d to 2.5d after launch.  Shortest time in port is 2.3d (between SL 2-9 & Iridium 9/OneWeb 19).  Port turnaround would need to be faster.
« Last Edit: 10/20/2023 01:50 pm by realnouns »

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1186 on: 10/26/2023 04:42 am »
Based on the most recent available information, I believe these are all the non-Starlink launches targeted to launch before the end of this year:
<snip>
Also, noting LC-39A use.

✅️ Cargo Dragon CRS-29 (Nov 10 6 UTC, LC-39A)

✅️ Transporter-9 (Nov 11 7, SLC-4E)

✅️ O3b mPOWER 5 & 6 (Nov 12 11, SLC-40)

✅️ 425 Project EO/IR + rideshares (Dec 1 Nov 29/30, SLC-4E)

Ovzon-3 (Dec 22 Dec 14 15 16 17, SLC-40)

USSF-52 = OTV-7 (Dec TBD NET Nov 30 Dec 7 8 10 11 12 13 14, LC-39A)

Axiom-3 (Jan 10, 3 day window, late? Jan 10 11, SLC-40? LC-39A)

Nova-C IM-1 (Jan 13/12-18 mid Dec, LC-39A)

Cygnus NG-20 (NET Jan 29 late, SLC-40)

PACE (NET Feb 6 Jan 9 30 early Feb, SLC-40)

Crew Dragon Crew-8 (mid Feb, LC-39A)

USSF-124 (NET Feb Dec 17 Dec 2023, SLC-40)

Astranis Block 2 (Q1 2024 NET Nov?, SLC-40)

Space Norway ASBM (mid 2024 NET Q4 NET Dec, SLC-4E)

Nusantara Lima (mid 2024 Dec?, SLC-40)

SARah 2 & 3 (2024 TBD? NET Dec, SLC-4E)

WorldView Legion (2024 TBD? end of 2023? NET Dec, SLC-4E)

Edited through mid December
« Last Edit: 12/14/2023 07:37 pm by zubenelgenubi »
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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1187 on: 10/28/2023 01:14 am »
IM-1 (NET Jan 12th) now conflicts with Ax-3 (NET Jan 10th). Is it likely Ax-3 will slip to NET late January as a result? Also, if USSF-52 launches on November 30th as currently planned, LC-39A will likely be able to support one or more launches before IM-1.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1188 on: 10/28/2023 01:33 am »
IM-1 (NET Jan 12th) now conflicts with Ax-3 (NET Jan 10th). Is it likely Ax-3 will slip to NET late January as a result? Also, if USSF-52 launches on November 30th as currently planned, LC-39A will likely be able to support one or more launches before IM-1.

...or Ax-3 uses SLC-40 - isn't the crew tower almost complete for use?
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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1189 on: 10/28/2023 05:45 am »
IM-1 (NET Jan 12th) now conflicts with Ax-3 (NET Jan 10th). Is it likely Ax-3 will slip to NET late January as a result? Also, if USSF-52 launches on November 30th as currently planned, LC-39A will likely be able to support one or more launches before IM-1.

...or Ax-3 uses SLC-40 - isn't the crew tower almost complete for use?

PACE is scheduled to launch from SLC-40 NET January 9th
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Offline Galactic Penguin SST

Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1190 on: 10/28/2023 05:48 am »
IM-1 (NET Jan 12th) now conflicts with Ax-3 (NET Jan 10th). Is it likely Ax-3 will slip to NET late January as a result? Also, if USSF-52 launches on November 30th as currently planned, LC-39A will likely be able to support one or more launches before IM-1.

...or Ax-3 uses SLC-40 - isn't the crew tower almost complete for use?

PACE is scheduled to launch from SLC-40 NET January 9th

PACE is going to SSO, are we sure it's not going out of Vandenberg?
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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1191 on: 10/28/2023 12:17 pm »
IM-1 (NET Jan 12th) now conflicts with Ax-3 (NET Jan 10th). Is it likely Ax-3 will slip to NET late January as a result? Also, if USSF-52 launches on November 30th as currently planned, LC-39A will likely be able to support one or more launches before IM-1.

...or Ax-3 uses SLC-40 - isn't the crew tower almost complete for use?

PACE is scheduled to launch from SLC-40 NET January 9th

PACE is going to SSO, are we sure it's not going out of Vandenberg?

Cross-post:

Currently targeting launch on January 9th and shipment to Florida in November.

Quote
The PACE Team is working closely with SpaceX and NASA Launch Services Program team at Kennedy Space Center in Florida to coordinate preparations for the PACE launch scheduled for 9 January 2024. PACE’s ride to Florida, both the transporter and shipping container, completed road testing and certification. Come November, PACE will exit through the Goddard gates and head south for its date with a Falcon 9!

https://pace.oceansciences.org/docs/PACENewsletter_August2023_FINAL.pdf
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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1192 on: 10/29/2023 01:55 am »
Time enough for a LC-39A Falcon 9 launch campaign in December, after USSF-52 and before IM-1?

Edit November 1: USSF-52 launch now in December.
« Last Edit: 11/02/2023 05:08 am by zubenelgenubi »
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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1193 on: 11/02/2023 04:51 pm »
Currently . . .

Transporter 9: NET Nov 7, 1:47pm EST
CRS-29: NET Nov 7, 9:16pm EST
Starlink 6-27: NET Nov 7, ~10:00pm EST

Thats 3 launches in <12 hours. Probably wont happen, as we have seen SpaceX shift other launches for priority NASA missions, but there's always a chance . . .

Edit: Nvm, CRS delayed :p
« Last Edit: 11/03/2023 01:39 am by spacenuance »

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1194 on: 11/08/2023 04:05 am »
https://twitter.com/andrewparsonson/status/1721977495451259043

Quote
Still whispers, but it looks like Sentinel-1C, which is currently scheduled to be launched aboard Vega C in 2024, will be launched aboard Falcon 9. It will likely first be announced that it will be launched aboard the Vega C return to flight mission. However, not only will Vega C likely not make the late 2024 deadline but it’s also considered unlikely that it will have the performance on the return to flight mission for S1C, as it's at the high end of the vehicle's performance envelope. When the contract was initially signed in 2022, S1C was slated to be launched in the first half of 2023. Image credit: IABG

Offline Zed_Noir

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1195 on: 11/08/2023 04:45 am »
From my July 1st post in the 'ESA - Sentinel-1C updates' thread.
 
<snip>
What does that mean? Will Sentinel 1C now also be transferred to the Falcon-9?
Aside from the Sentinel-1B replacement, how long will Sentinel-1A's fuel reserves last?
Do the EU already have to think about the launch of Sentinel-1D?
Speculate that the decision to transferred has been made, but not yet announced.

EU don't want to be without an operational Sentinel-1, when the replacement is in storage in a clean room. It will be too embarrassing. ;)
Seems my speculation is correct for the launch of Sentinel-1C on a Falcon 9. Wonder if the launch will be early 2024 or earlier since the payload is ready in a clean room. Guess SpaceX will just bump a Starlink launch to a later date out of Vandenberg.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1196 on: 11/11/2023 09:32 am »
https://twitter.com/stephenclark1/status/1721904544639295983

Quote
Thierry Breton, the EU's internal market commissioner, confirmed today that the European Commission has reached a 180 million euro ($192m) deal with SpaceX for two Falcon 9 launches set for April and July next year, each deploying two Galileo navigation satellites.

Quote
The agreement is still pending the conclusion of a security review, since it will involve the first-ever export of a Galileo satellite outside of European territory.

Will the boosters be expended? I don't think a landing is possible, but I could be wrong.
The price is relatively high for Falcon 9 standards.
On the other hand, a mission extension kit is required because of the long mission duration.
We also don't know whether SpaceX uses the existing dispenser or (like at the OneWeb launches) develops its own.
Finally, supply and demand determine the price.
« Last Edit: 11/11/2023 09:39 am by GWR64 »

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1197 on: 11/11/2023 01:21 pm »
In theory Falcon 9 should have the capabilty to send those satellites with ASDS recovery and as for the price, it looks right around the same price as the ones for GPS missions flown on Falcon 9.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1198 on: 11/11/2023 02:03 pm »
In theory Falcon 9 should have the capabilty to send those satellites with ASDS recovery and as for the price, it looks right around the same price as the ones for GPS missions flown on Falcon 9.
Just guessing, maybe the security requirements effectively add cost, secure facilities, compartmentalised staff, clearances... paperwork... therefore inconvenience, impact on SX operations, and risk of admin of all this delaying things.
Also US millitary launches always seem more expensive than commercial launches.
« Last Edit: 11/11/2023 02:04 pm by DistantTemple »
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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1199 on: 11/13/2023 08:09 pm »
So, uh, it appears SpaceX has reached a flight rate that does not support keeping both future missions and all of the current year's missions in the top post of the manifest updates thread
« Last Edit: 11/13/2023 08:11 pm by gongora »

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