Author Topic: Vega Evolution Discussion Thread  (Read 75137 times)

Online daedalus1

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Re: Vega Evolution Discussion Thread
« Reply #180 on: 12/21/2022 09:03 am »
Falcon 9

Offline TrevorMonty

Re: Vega Evolution Discussion Thread
« Reply #181 on: 12/21/2022 09:20 am »
Falcon 9
Firefly Alpha maybe but it would need a few more successful missions.

Offline jsanders2020

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Re: Vega Evolution Discussion Thread
« Reply #182 on: 12/21/2022 10:13 am »
While this morning's launch will result in a delay to Arianespace's development of the Vega - surely it can't be classed as a "disaster" as one of NSF's contributors tweeted this morning. Ariane Six will be on line soon and they will resolve the Vega issues.

Not the first time this particular contributor appears to have an agenda 0f anti ESA/Arianespace rhetoric.

Online daedalus1

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Re: Vega Evolution Discussion Thread
« Reply #183 on: 12/21/2022 10:15 am »
Ariane 6 is at least a year away from 1st launch.

Offline TrevorMonty

Re: Vega Evolution Discussion Thread
« Reply #184 on: 12/21/2022 05:04 pm »


While this morning's launch will result in a delay to Arianespace's development of the Vega - surely it can't be classed as a "disaster" as one of NSF's contributors tweeted this morning. Ariane Six will be on line soon and they will resolve the Vega issues.

Not the first time this particular contributor appears to have an agenda 0f anti ESA/Arianespace rhetoric.

Its not anti Arianespace just facts that F9R, LauncherOne and Electron are about it for operational Western LVs with spare capacity in next 6-12months.


Offline zubenelgenubi

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Re: Vega Evolution Discussion Thread
« Reply #185 on: 12/22/2022 01:21 pm »
Given the VV22 Vega C launch failure apparently was entirely caused by the failure of the Zefiro-40 second stage, would it be possible to use the two remaining Vega LVs during the investigation and remediation, as they use Zefiro-23 second stages?

Either launching the assigned Vega payloads as-is, or substituting priority payloads that can still be launched by Vega?
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Offline oomrubl

Re: Vega Evolution Discussion Thread
« Reply #186 on: 12/22/2022 01:49 pm »

While this morning's launch will result in a delay to Arianespace's development of the Vega - surely it can't be classed as a "disaster" as one of NSF's contributors tweeted this morning. Ariane Six will be on line soon and they will resolve the Vega issues.

Not the first time this particular contributor appears to have an agenda 0f anti ESA/Arianespace rhetoric.

Its not anti Arianespace just facts that F9R, LauncherOne and Electron are about it for operational Western LVs with spare capacity in next 6-12months.

Well, the 'are about to" falls in the same timeframe as corrections to Zefiro Z40. IMHO of course  ;)
The more I learn the better I understand I know nothing.

Offline cpushack

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Re: Vega Evolution Discussion Thread
« Reply #187 on: 12/22/2022 08:24 pm »
Given the VV22 Vega C launch failure apparently was entirely caused by the failure of the Zefiro-40 second stage, would it be possible to use the two remaining Vega LVs during the investigation and remediation, as they use Zefiro-23 second stages?

Either launching the assigned Vega payloads as-is, or substituting priority payloads that can still be launched by Vega?

Perhaps possible, but do we know there wasn't a problem with the 3rd or 4th stage? 3rd (Zefiro 9) is same as before but the 4th is new for Vega-C too

Offline GWR64

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Re: Vega Evolution Discussion Thread
« Reply #188 on: 02/19/2023 06:53 pm »
Avio investors presentation Feb. 15 2023
On page 10 a "V2K" engine is mentioned.
Is that the planned in-house replacement for the Ukrainian engine for Vega-C AVUM+ ?

The failure at VV21 is not mentioned anywhere. I'm afraid that nothing has changed with Avio.

https://avio-data.teleborsa.it/2023%2f20230209-Cowen-Conference_vDEF_1_20230215_062120.pdf
« Last Edit: 02/19/2023 06:59 pm by GWR64 »

Offline russianhalo117

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Re: Vega Evolution Discussion Thread
« Reply #189 on: 02/19/2023 09:37 pm »
Avio investors presentation Feb. 15 2023
On page 10 a "V2K" engine is mentioned.
Is that the planned in-house replacement for the Ukrainian engine for Vega-C AVUM+ ?

The failure at VV21 is not mentioned anywhere. I'm afraid that nothing has changed with Avio.

https://avio-data.teleborsa.it/2023%2f20230209-Cowen-Conference_vDEF_1_20230215_062120.pdf
Yes it is the EUSPA/ESA (funding from both plus EC, involved partner countries and internal sources) supported replacement for the Soviet/Ukrainian RD-843 engine family.

Online TheKutKu

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Re: Vega Evolution Discussion Thread
« Reply #190 on: 02/20/2023 02:50 pm »
Avio investors presentation Feb. 15 2023
On page 10 a "V2K" engine is mentioned.
Is that the planned in-house replacement for the Ukrainian engine for Vega-C AVUM+ ?

The failure at VV21 is not mentioned anywhere. I'm afraid that nothing has changed with Avio.

https://avio-data.teleborsa.it/2023%2f20230209-Cowen-Conference_vDEF_1_20230215_062120.pdf

What is that reusable upper stage? I've seen it mentionned many times over the past several months, but what is it exactly?

Offline Asteroza

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Re: Vega Evolution Discussion Thread
« Reply #191 on: 02/20/2023 09:29 pm »
Avio investors presentation Feb. 15 2023
On page 10 a "V2K" engine is mentioned.
Is that the planned in-house replacement for the Ukrainian engine for Vega-C AVUM+ ?

The failure at VV21 is not mentioned anywhere. I'm afraid that nothing has changed with Avio.

https://avio-data.teleborsa.it/2023%2f20230209-Cowen-Conference_vDEF_1_20230215_062120.pdf

What is that reusable upper stage? I've seen it mentionned many times over the past several months, but what is it exactly?

Probably not SUSIE?

Online TheKutKu

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Re: Vega Evolution Discussion Thread
« Reply #192 on: 02/21/2023 01:42 am »
Avio investors presentation Feb. 15 2023
On page 10 a "V2K" engine is mentioned.
Is that the planned in-house replacement for the Ukrainian engine for Vega-C AVUM+ ?

The failure at VV21 is not mentioned anywhere. I'm afraid that nothing has changed with Avio.

https://avio-data.teleborsa.it/2023%2f20230209-Cowen-Conference_vDEF_1_20230215_062120.pdf

What is that reusable upper stage? I've seen it mentionned many times over the past several months, but what is it exactly?

Probably not SUSIE?

Definitely not, SUSIE is an ArianeGroup proposal while this upper stage is an Avio-led international project that  got funding at the ministerial. 

There was a render of it in the December 2022 Avio update, doesn’t give much Information beside what looks like a M10 engine.

About it, last year Andrew Parsonson had to say:

"As a result, the agency plan to propose an initiative to develop a reusable upper stage at its ministerial-level council meeting later this year. The initiative will examine the reusability of an upper stage in two distinct roles: as a launch vehicle asset that would be recovered and then reused, and as an in-orbit transfer/maintenance vehicle that could be utilised for a variety of missions"

https://europeanspaceflight.substack.com/p/europe-prepares-for-a-reusable-future-1201427

I cannot find more information about it, I saw some German DLR paper studying a Starship-like reusable  upper stage For A6 and Vega-E purpose but I seriously doubt it is any related to it.

Offline GWR64

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Re: Vega Evolution Discussion Thread
« Reply #193 on: 03/18/2023 12:51 pm »
Avio investors presentation Feb. 15 2023
On page 10 a "V2K" engine is mentioned.
Is that the planned in-house replacement for the Ukrainian engine for Vega-C AVUM+ ?

The failure at VV21 is not mentioned anywhere. I'm afraid that nothing has changed with Avio.

https://avio-data.teleborsa.it/2023%2f20230209-Cowen-Conference_vDEF_1_20230215_062120.pdf

What is that reusable upper stage? I've seen it mentionned many times over the past several months, but what is it exactly?

There's a small picture on page 8 but no explanation for it.
https://avio-data.teleborsa.it/2023%2f20230306-Avio-FY-2022-results_vDEF_1_20230314_102752.pdf
[March 14]

Online TheKutKu

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Re: Vega Evolution Discussion Thread
« Reply #194 on: 03/18/2023 04:38 pm »
Avio investors presentation Feb. 15 2023
On page 10 a "V2K" engine is mentioned.
Is that the planned in-house replacement for the Ukrainian engine for Vega-C AVUM+ ?

The failure at VV21 is not mentioned anywhere. I'm afraid that nothing has changed with Avio.

https://avio-data.teleborsa.it/2023%2f20230209-Cowen-Conference_vDEF_1_20230215_062120.pdf

What is that reusable upper stage? I've seen it mentionned many times over the past several months, but what is it exactly?

There's a small picture on page 8 but no explanation for it.
https://avio-data.teleborsa.it/2023%2f20230306-Avio-FY-2022-results_vDEF_1_20230314_102752.pdf
[March 14]

Nice find!
It's actually a bit coherent with the paper I mentionned
https://elib.dlr.de/188196/1/2.01.03.Hantz_paper.pdf


« Last Edit: 03/18/2023 04:40 pm by TheKutKu »

Offline Rik ISS-fan

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Re: Vega Evolution Discussion Thread
« Reply #195 on: 03/18/2023 07:48 pm »
The Avio FY2022 results slidedeck contains the statement on Page 9 & 23; that Vega (C/E) launch manifest is full until 2027.
AFAIK ESA hasn't ordered launches for all Copernicus satellites that need to be launched the in the coming 5 years.
So competitors ISAR aerospace and RFA one have some launches to 

The Vega STS ([7-9x M10] first stage + VUS [M10] second stage) is a light ~1000kg payload to SSO 700km from ELV) could add launch capability. But I think the development of a booster with the diameter of Z40, that could replace the P120C(+) on Vega E (or already C) could be available sooner. This P36-72 could be quite similar to NGIS Castor 120.
Vega E would contain P120C(+)-Z40-VUS, the lighter version would contain ~P50-Z40-VUS.
I see two additional benefits. First if they develop this stage fast, they possibly already could do static firing test this year. Possibly this adds additional test points for the new Z40 throat insert supplied by ArianeGroup.
Secondly, on the long therm, this might enable the phaseout op P120C(+). Because ArianeGroup can sustain it's solid motor production capability with P50 and Z40 production work.
My idea to replace P120C(+) would be combining the results of STS & HTE (M60). Thus a reusable first stage with 7 to 9 M60 engines. ArianeGroup is proposing the THEMIS (3x Prometheus) stage for this. But I would prefer the stage from Avio, it could be manufactured with the P120C (Ø3.4m) casing tooling in Italy.
I think ArianeGroup (France) should use the LLPM tooling (Ø5.4m) for LLPM with 1x Vulcain 2.1; 1 or 2x Prometheus Hydrogen and / or 7 to 9x Prometheus Methane.

I think STS in the first stage only configuration is a way better reusable stage demonstrator then Themis. Possibly a reduced length version with only 5 engines could also serve as the European version of Blue Origin New Shepperd (scientific flights mostly uncrewed).
But I don't like the fact that this 100% state funded launcher; is competing with ISAR aerospace Spectrum and RFA One that are privately funded. Possibly we are already witnessing the downside of the unfair competition.

I was surprised by the fact that Avio is already doing detailed studies on how to make a fully reusable launcher (with the HTE/M60 and M10 engines).

Offline GWR64

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Re: Vega Evolution Discussion Thread
« Reply #196 on: 08/30/2023 10:40 am »
https://twitter.com/andrewparsonson/status/1676906885964759041

Quote
.@ESA has established an Independent Enquiry Commission to investigate the failure of the @Avio_Group-led Vega C Zefiro 40 static fire test conducted on 28 June 2023.

https://europeanspaceflight.com/esa-launch-independent-enquiry-commission-to-investigate-vega-c-z40-test-failure/

2 months silence at Avio and ESA? What does that mean?
The burned out Zefiro-40 is still there, surely there is something to be seen on it, that went wrong,
where something may have burnt through.
Is there possibly a new investigation to the VV22 launch failure, in this context?

Offline hoku

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Re: Vega Evolution Discussion Thread
« Reply #197 on: 08/30/2023 08:25 pm »
<snip>
Quote
.@ESA has established an Independent Enquiry Commission to investigate the failure of the @Avio_Group-led Vega C Zefiro 40 static fire test conducted on 28 June 2023.

https://europeanspaceflight.com/esa-launch-independent-enquiry-commission-to-investigate-vega-c-z40-test-failure/

2 months silence at Avio and ESA? What does that mean?
The burned out Zefiro-40 is still there, surely there is something to be seen on it, that went wrong,
where something may have burnt through.
Is there possibly a new investigation to the VV22 launch failure, in this context?
One issue the current commission might have to look into is why the previous enquiry commission investigating the VV22 launch failure affirmed in March 2023 that "No weakness in the design of Zefiro 40 has been revealed."
https://www.esa.int/Newsroom/Press_Releases/Loss_of_flight_VV22_Independent_Enquiry_Commission_announces_conclusions

Edit: I re-watched the press briefing on the presentation of the VV22 commission's findings. One could wonder about the  independence of an "independent" inquiry commission composed primarily of employees of the major stakeholders (ESA, ArianeSpace, CNES, ASI, ...) and the manufacturer (Avio).
« Last Edit: 08/31/2023 06:48 am by hoku »

Offline friendly3

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Re: Vega Evolution Discussion Thread
« Reply #198 on: 09/01/2023 12:18 am »
The return to flight of Vega C won't happen before the end of 2024, coming from a reliable French source in Kourou.

Offline ZachS09

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Re: Vega Evolution Discussion Thread
« Reply #199 on: 09/01/2023 12:54 am »
The return to flight of Vega-C won't happen before the end of 2024, coming from a reliable French source in Kourou.


That late? One year from now?
Liftoff for St. Jude's! Go Dragon, Go Falcon, Godspeed Inspiration4!

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