Author Topic: Vega Evolution Discussion Thread  (Read 70402 times)

Offline friendly3

  • Full Member
  • **
  • Posts: 271
  • Liege. BELGIUM.
  • Liked: 306
  • Likes Given: 8515
Re: Vega Evolution Discussion Thread
« Reply #200 on: 09/01/2023 02:46 am »
The return to flight of Vega-C won't happen before the end of 2024, coming from a reliable French source in Kourou.


That late? One year from now?

Yes, at best.
I don't know more but my uneducated guess is that they found a design flaw in the Zefiro 40 second stage.
« Last Edit: 09/01/2023 02:49 am by friendly3 »

Online ZachS09

  • Space Savant
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8391
  • Roanoke, TX
  • Liked: 2338
  • Likes Given: 2052
Re: Vega Evolution Discussion Thread
« Reply #201 on: 09/01/2023 04:48 am »
The return to flight of Vega-C won't happen before the end of 2024, coming from a reliable French source in Kourou.


That late? One year from now?

Yes, at best.
I don't know more but my uneducated guess is that they found a design flaw in the Zefiro 40 second stage.

Darn it. This may mean that most of the payloads on Vega-C's manifest are moving to other launch vehicles (i.e. Falcon 9).
Liftoff for St. Jude's! Go Dragon, Go Falcon, Godspeed Inspiration4!

Online Mamut

  • Member
  • Posts: 27
  • Manchester, UK
  • Liked: 32
  • Likes Given: 13
Re: Vega Evolution Discussion Thread
« Reply #202 on: 09/02/2023 10:28 pm »
This actually makes Vega C irrelevant. What is the purpose of working for the next year on returning it to service in 2025 if Vega E flies in 2026.

Re: Vega Evolution Discussion Thread
« Reply #203 on: 09/02/2023 10:37 pm »
This actually makes Vega C irrelevant. What is the purpose of working for the next year on returning it to service in 2025 if Vega E flies in 2026.

Well unfortunately, from what I can tell, Vega E would still use the same second stage that has failed both in launch and testing on Vega C. Only the 3rd and 4th stages get replaced with a methalox stage. And if the only delays to Vega C are from second stage work, it still makes sense to get it up and going, even in 2025. And who's to say the M10 stage will actually be ready on time anyways . . .

Offline Rik ISS-fan

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1511
  • the Netherlands
  • Liked: 604
  • Likes Given: 210
Re: Vega Evolution Discussion Thread
« Reply #204 on: 09/02/2023 11:01 pm »
The M10 engine and VUS stage for Vega E have a development timeline with a maiden launch NET 2026.
New engine; new stage; thus delays are likely.
Vega E is a further development of Vega C; it keeps the P120C(+) and Z40 stages.
The problem lies with the Z40stage.

A proposal could be:
To halt Vega C and E development. Thus halt M10 development (after the second engine).
Shelve the demo rocket. Halt a lot of side developments for the Vega Launchers.
And end casting orbital solid stages in Italy.
Focus on; and fast track the HTE/M60 engine development (start in 2024 in stead of 2026), as a second stage engine. With the HTE/M60 a two stage to orbit can be developed. Let's call it Vega F:
With P120C(+) and a HTE/M60 powered second stage. Let Avio aim to get this operational before 2030.
I think 200mln funded via the EU recovery fund should suffice.
The next step would be replacement of P120C(+) with stage with multiple sea level HTE/M60 engines. That stage might become reusable. But is Avio capable of developing this, looking at their track record?

This results in no Vega launches between 2024 and 2030 when the Vega F gets operational.
European small launchers (ISAR Aerospace Spectrum, or RFA One) can launch some payloads. Others can be launched by Ariane 6 rideshare or other launch service providers.

Offline hoku

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 766
  • Liked: 656
  • Likes Given: 329
Re: Vega Evolution Discussion Thread
« Reply #205 on: 09/03/2023 10:22 am »
<snip>
This results in no Vega launches between 2024 and 2030 when the Vega F gets operational.
European small launchers (ISAR Aerospace Spectrum, or RFA One) can launch some payloads. Others can be launched by Ariane 6 rideshare or other launch service providers.
Ariane 6 economics are (for better or worse) linked to Vega C's (P120C) flight rate. It is in ArianeSpace's best interest to implement the recommendations of the inquiry board into the VV22 failure regarding improvements in configuration and quality control for Vega C's manufacturing and testing processes. The hot fire test, which revealed the new issue with Zefiro 40, was along the board's recommendations.

Still, I agree that Europe/EU/ESA should become much more supportive towards other potential European launch providers (PLD Space/DAWN/Skyrora/ISAR Aerospace/RFA etc.). ArianeSpace's monopoly, which led to a complete loss of guaranteed access to orbit for Europe, needs to be challenged.

Offline GWR64

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1771
  • Germany
  • Liked: 1664
  • Likes Given: 1031
Re: Vega Evolution Discussion Thread
« Reply #206 on: 09/03/2023 01:15 pm »
The M10 engine and VUS stage for Vega E have a development timeline with a maiden launch NET 2026.
New engine; new stage; thus delays are likely.
Vega E is a further development of Vega C; it keeps the P120C(+) and Z40 stages.
The problem lies with the Z40stage.

A proposal could be:
To halt Vega C and E development. Thus halt M10 development (after the second engine).
Shelve the demo rocket. Halt a lot of side developments for the Vega Launchers.
And end casting orbital solid stages in Italy.
Focus on; and fast track the HTE/M60 engine development (start in 2024 in stead of 2026), as a second stage engine. With the HTE/M60 a two stage to orbit can be developed. Let's call it Vega F:
With P120C(+) and a HTE/M60 powered second stage. Let Avio aim to get this operational before 2030.
I think 200mln funded via the EU recovery fund should suffice.
The next step would be replacement of P120C(+) with stage with multiple sea level HTE/M60 engines. That stage might become reusable. But is Avio capable of developing this, looking at their track record?

This results in no Vega launches between 2024 and 2030 when the Vega F gets operational.
European small launchers (ISAR Aerospace Spectrum, or RFA One) can launch some payloads. Others can be launched by Ariane 6 rideshare or other launch service providers.

I think about the delays at the Vega-C initial launch and don't give anything for these launch dates.
And, not the Vega-C is the problem, but Avio.
« Last Edit: 09/03/2023 07:20 pm by GWR64 »

Offline GWR64

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1771
  • Germany
  • Liked: 1664
  • Likes Given: 1031
Re: Vega Evolution Discussion Thread
« Reply #207 on: 09/08/2023 10:48 pm »
Avio 2023 Half-Year Financial Report

Quote
...
Preliminary results of the Zefiro 40 engine test

On June 28, a static ignition test of the Zefiro 40 engine (second stage of the Vega C launcher) was performed on schedule. This was required for the return to flight of Vega C after the flight anomaly suffered during the last VV22 launch in December 2022.
Following the recommendations of the Independent Enquiry Commission on the VV22 mission anomaly, the test was carried out to qualify the performance of the engine with a new carbon-carbon material used for the nozzle throat insert. The test conditions were deliberately extremely severe in terms of maximum engine operating pressure, to demonstrate an extensive performance margin and ensure maximum flight reliability.
Preliminary analysis of the test results - which are still being studied before final conclusions are reached, expected in late September - yielded the following results:
The new carbon-carbon material exhibited nominal performance, which was very close to expectations. However, another anomaly was detected 40 seconds after the start of the test. This led to a reduction in the engineís overall pressure performance before the scheduled completion of the test at 97 seconds. This requires further investigation and testing by Avio and the European Space Agency to ensure optimal performance conditions.
However, it remains reasonable to assume that the Zefiro 40 engine will need to be ground-tested again before returning to flight with the Vega C launcher. For H1 2023, the provision for risks for estimated costs to be borne by Avio to carry out an additional Zefiro 40 engine static ignition test was therefore included in non-recurring costs, as was the ESA support attributable to Avio as part of the wider principle of support for the return to flight of the Vega C launcher. This was confirmed by the ESA in March 2023.
The Vega launcher is not affected by the performance of Zefiro 40, which is specific to Vega C. The next Vega launch remains scheduled for early October. Planning for Vega Cís return to flight is currently being assessed, pending further analysis and investigation as indicated above.
...
« Last Edit: 09/08/2023 10:50 pm by GWR64 »

Offline GWR64

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1771
  • Germany
  • Liked: 1664
  • Likes Given: 1031
Re: Vega Evolution Discussion Thread
« Reply #208 on: 10/07/2023 08:52 am »
A bit off topic:
Avio spa's share price has been falling for a long time, but in the last 3 weeks it has collapsed quite a bit.
Closing price yesterday Ä7.60. Total value of Avio Spa. is less than 200 MÄ.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AVIO.MI/

https://investors.avio.com/en/Investors/Ownership-Structure/

There are also rumors that the largest shareholder Leonardo wants to reduce his share.
Avio spa would be an target for a takeover by a potential investor from anywhere.
But the small company is too important for the European space industry and also for military.
The control should therefore not fall into the wrong hands.
« Last Edit: 10/07/2023 12:05 pm by GWR64 »

Tags:
 

Advertisement NovaTech
Advertisement Northrop Grumman
Advertisement
Advertisement Margaritaville Beach Resort South Padre Island
Advertisement Brady Kenniston
Advertisement NextSpaceflight
Advertisement Nathan Barker Photography
0