NG will use partial reuse basically right from the start, like they did with NA.It's FULL reuse that will take time.I repeat: NG is planned for *full* reuse.
Quote from: Robotbeat on 01/11/2019 01:44 amQuote from: meekGee on 01/10/2019 03:52 amQuote from: Lemurion on 01/10/2019 02:38 amIt's not even that the market will declare a winner, but that I can easily see SpaceX and Blue Origin serving different markets with each producing a system that better serves its own market while competing for other markets.I can't see an expendable system successfully competing with a rapidly reusable RTLS system. Even if the RTLS system is "too large".The analogy to A380 vs. 787 is irrelevant, since both systems are equally reusable. If A380 was reusable and B787 was say 25% expendable per flight, then B787 would be a non-starter, even if it was "sized just right".The only way for NG to succeed right now is if SH/SS fails to deliver, or has a series of accidents that delays it by several years.The problem with your logic is that NG is planned to be mostly reusable from the start and fully reusable later. It should be able to compete.It will be able to compete because the market total revenue isn't growing fast enough for SpaceX to just slash prices to the point where they are running thin margins. Also because there are no other low cost fully reusable systems set to enter the market any time soon, which means that BFR is only competing with partially reusable systems like NG. Once another low cost fully reusable system is flying, the partially expendable systems will be in the same position what the fully expendable systems will be in when NG starts partial reuse (which is still some 3 years away). All of this takes time.
Quote from: meekGee on 01/10/2019 03:52 amQuote from: Lemurion on 01/10/2019 02:38 amIt's not even that the market will declare a winner, but that I can easily see SpaceX and Blue Origin serving different markets with each producing a system that better serves its own market while competing for other markets.I can't see an expendable system successfully competing with a rapidly reusable RTLS system. Even if the RTLS system is "too large".The analogy to A380 vs. 787 is irrelevant, since both systems are equally reusable. If A380 was reusable and B787 was say 25% expendable per flight, then B787 would be a non-starter, even if it was "sized just right".The only way for NG to succeed right now is if SH/SS fails to deliver, or has a series of accidents that delays it by several years.The problem with your logic is that NG is planned to be mostly reusable from the start and fully reusable later. It should be able to compete.
Quote from: Lemurion on 01/10/2019 02:38 amIt's not even that the market will declare a winner, but that I can easily see SpaceX and Blue Origin serving different markets with each producing a system that better serves its own market while competing for other markets.I can't see an expendable system successfully competing with a rapidly reusable RTLS system. Even if the RTLS system is "too large".The analogy to A380 vs. 787 is irrelevant, since both systems are equally reusable. If A380 was reusable and B787 was say 25% expendable per flight, then B787 would be a non-starter, even if it was "sized just right".The only way for NG to succeed right now is if SH/SS fails to deliver, or has a series of accidents that delays it by several years.
It's not even that the market will declare a winner, but that I can easily see SpaceX and Blue Origin serving different markets with each producing a system that better serves its own market while competing for other markets.
Soyuz will launch 10 OneWeb seats at a time. NG will launch 80 at a time.
Quote from: oldAtlas_Eguy on 01/20/2019 09:37 pmSoyuz will launch 10 OneWeb seats at a time. NG will launch 80 at a time.The plan was for 36 satellites per Soyuz. I don't know if the number has been reduced now that the constellation will consist only of 600 sats, but the 10 sats was always only for the initial launch. (Which has now been reduced to 6 sats).
Quote from: Robotbeat on 01/15/2019 04:56 amNG will use partial reuse basically right from the start, like they did with NA.It's FULL reuse that will take time.I repeat: NG is planned for *full* reuse.That is possibly true (maybe even probable), but we don't KNOW that. Blue has not released anything about a reusable upper stage. Perhaps NA is the one that is planned to be fully reusable. We don't know.
Quote from: Lars-J on 01/15/2019 05:56 amQuote from: Robotbeat on 01/15/2019 04:56 amNG will use partial reuse basically right from the start, like they did with NA.It's FULL reuse that will take time.I repeat: NG is planned for *full* reuse.That is possibly true (maybe even probable), but we don't KNOW that. Blue has not released anything about a reusable upper stage. Perhaps NA is the one that is planned to be fully reusable. We don't know.Wrong, they have. It has been shown in New Glenn literature. Their plan is not NA full reuse but NG.
Quote from: Robotbeat on 01/29/2019 07:11 pmQuote from: Lars-J on 01/15/2019 05:56 amQuote from: Robotbeat on 01/15/2019 04:56 amNG will use partial reuse basically right from the start, like they did with NA.It's FULL reuse that will take time.I repeat: NG is planned for *full* reuse.That is possibly true (maybe even probable), but we don't KNOW that. Blue has not released anything about a reusable upper stage. Perhaps NA is the one that is planned to be fully reusable. We don't know.Wrong, they have. It has been shown in New Glenn literature. Their plan is not NA full reuse but NG.Are you referring to the "initially expendable" upper stage slide? That's not exactly the same as showing full reuse.
It does imply that full reuse is eventually coming.
Quote from: Eric Hedman on 01/30/2019 02:44 amIt does imply that full reuse is eventually coming.True, but it tells us nothing about how distant those plans are, or if they will ever come to fruition. Just like SMART reuse on Vulcan. Or full reuse of F9. (remember the video?)
NG is smashing FH out of the park on launch contracts. Looks like Blue have hit a home run with the 7m fairing. Telesat explicitly said they chose NG because of it's 7m fairing. Looks like Blue's approach is a winner by offering more payload volume capability than anyone else can currently offer.If SH/SS fails then Blue will do the mopping up.
Sorry if this has been covered before, but what is the estimated cost of New Glenn’s second stage, which will presumably be expended in the initial years of operation?I think the Falcon 9 second stage is estimated to cost around $10-12m with the fairing another $6m or so. Given that New Glenn has a significantly larger and more capable upper stage, it will presumably cost a lot more than that. Even if you add just 50% to the cost of the F9’s upper stage and fairing, that means that would bring the cost of New Glenn’s expendable parts to the $30m range.So, until it achieves upper stage and fairing recovery, around $30m and probably closer to $40m would be a lower limit for New Glenn’s cost per launch. And given BO’s glacial pace of progress, does anyone think they will achieve either of these next steps (2nd stage or fairing recovery) before 2025 at the earliest, assuming an initial 2021 New Glenn launch date?Even by conservative estimates, by 2025 Starship should be flying in fully reusable format to LEO and the Moon, even if Mars is still a bit further in the future.
Quote from: DJPledger on 02/02/2019 08:27 amNG is smashing FH out of the park on launch contracts. Looks like Blue have hit a home run with the 7m fairing. Telesat explicitly said they chose NG because of it's 7m fairing. Looks like Blue's approach is a winner by offering more payload volume capability than anyone else can currently offer.If SH/SS fails then Blue will do the mopping up.That's why NG is such a tragic story... Arriving to market only to realize it came equipped to do battle with the wrong rocket.NG will launch only leftovers, which will limit its flight rate.Vulcan and A6 - yes, they are not even tragic... They are Rosencrantz and Guildenstern...
New Glenn is pretty well positioned to be converted to full reuse and compete with BFR, should that become necessary in the mid-to-late 2020s.
Particularly if Blue can squeeze a little more thrust out of BE-4, stretch both stages, and add a 3rd BE-3 to the upper stage for landings.