It's important to remember than Elon Musk is a dot-com billionaire. He comes from an industry where vaporware is not only endemic but most required as a business plan. So all this talk about future rockets FX, FXH and FXX is just that: talk.As for the Merlin2. Right now the DOD is interested in a 500K rocket engine. I think that's what we're going to see a 500K (possibly methane) engine.But people should take the things Musk says with a grain of salt.
First you need an engine development. The only new engine development is the SC engine of unknown thrust and unknown prop type. With a 300-500klbf RP-1/LOX engine using the same 9:1 configuration a vehicle with the same length and 5-6m diameter which can be launched initially on the same pads as F9, a greater than double performance of the F9/FH or 30-35MT/105-125MT can be achieved at roughly the same prices or up to 50% more as that of the F9/FH. This would drop LEO $/kg rates by about 30% or to $3,500/$1,800 for single/heavy. This approach would use the experience gained from the F9 and FH and just scale up those designs including being able to use the RLV concepts being explored for the F9. A 1+mlbf engine as the next engine just does not seem to be in the near future plans.Such a vehicle would replace the FH usage completely leaving the F9 as the small sat launcher then the X vehicle as the large GEO sat launcher and then the XH vehicle as a BEO or tanker launcher.
Quote from: beb on 11/11/2011 02:59 pmIt's important to remember than Elon Musk is a dot-com billionaire. He comes from an industry where vaporware is not only endemic but most required as a business plan. So all this talk about future rockets FX, FXH and FXX is just that: talk.As for the Merlin2. Right now the DOD is interested in a 500K rocket engine. I think that's what we're going to see a 500K (possibly methane) engine.But people should take the things Musk says with a grain of salt. When was the last time you saw Musk talking about those? Musk wasn't the one really pushing FX, FXX, Merlin 2 etc. That's pretty much just SpaceX amazing people, plus a couple powerpoints from SpaceX. Musk has been pushing crewed Dragon, reusable Falcon 9, and Falcon Heavy. Ambitious enough.
Discuss the possibility of a Falcon X, Falcon X Heavy, Falcon XX, and Merlin 2 engine.
Quote from: beb on 11/11/2011 02:59 pmIt's important to remember than Elon Musk is a dot-com billionaire. He comes from an industry where vaporware is not only endemic but most required as a business plan. So all this talk about future rockets FX, FXH and FXX is just that: talk.As for the Merlin2. Right now the DOD is interested in a 500K rocket engine. I think that's what we're going to see a 500K (possibly methane) engine.But people should take the things Musk says with a grain of salt. Uh, didn't Musk actually come out and say specifically they weren't building an FX, FXH or FXX, and that he was annoyed they'd been publicly discussed at all?So this isn't something Musk said that we should take with a grain of salt, this is something Musk specifically denied that fans and detractors alike have taken way too seriously.
“we’re confident we could get a fully operational vehicle to the pad for $2.5 billion—and not only that, I will personally guarantee it,” Musk says. In addition, the final product would be a fully accounted cost per flight of $300 million, he asserts. “I’ll also guarantee that,” he adds, though he cautions this does not include a potential upper-stage upgrade.
Quote from: ArbitraryConstant on 11/11/2011 05:24 pmQuote from: beb on 11/11/2011 02:59 pmIt's important to remember than Elon Musk is a dot-com billionaire. He comes from an industry where vaporware is not only endemic but most required as a business plan. So all this talk about future rockets FX, FXH and FXX is just that: talk.As for the Merlin2. Right now the DOD is interested in a 500K rocket engine. I think that's what we're going to see a 500K (possibly methane) engine.But people should take the things Musk says with a grain of salt. Uh, didn't Musk actually come out and say specifically they weren't building an FX, FXH or FXX, and that he was annoyed they'd been publicly discussed at all?So this isn't something Musk said that we should take with a grain of salt, this is something Musk specifically denied that fans and detractors alike have taken way too seriously.Than he probably shouldn't have said this Quote“we’re confident we could get a fully operational vehicle to the pad for $2.5 billion—and not only that, I will personally guarantee it,” Musk says. In addition, the final product would be a fully accounted cost per flight of $300 million, he asserts. “I’ll also guarantee that,” he adds, though he cautions this does not include a potential upper-stage upgrade.