Quote from: Jim on 05/19/2016 02:53 pmThere hasn't been a need for military LV certification until Spacex came along.NRO has bought Atlas III, Minotaurs, etcSo you are saying we don't really have much insight into what kind of procurement guidelines might have been at play here, and can't really infer anything about the payload... which does seem par for the course for NRO birds.
There hasn't been a need for military LV certification until Spacex came along.NRO has bought Atlas III, Minotaurs, etc
Humm why people assume this has to be a Falcon Heavy mission ?Don't those birds go into LEO / Polar orbits ?Aren't those in the sub 9 ton class ?Those are all educated guesses based on a quick Google search.It seems there are four major classes of US Govt birds: The big GEO COMM birds which clearly fall into Falcon Heavy type payloads Intel birds which would make far more sense in LEO/Polar orbits, those seem fairly easy Falcon 9 launches GPS, which are low enough in mass that an upgrade Falcon 9 might be able to put them all the way into a MEO orbit, but with DoD margin requirements might end up with SpaceX tasked with delivering them into a "MEO transfer orbit" Fairly heavy Polar orbit birds too, those would probably be Falcon Heavy type launches tooWhy the assumption NROL-76 requires a Falcon Heavy launch ?
My understanding is that some reconnaissance satellites are quite massive... ~ 20000 kg? Still within F9 LEO performance on their website, possibly expendable.
Um... polar orbit would have to launch out of Vandenberg, right? Last I heard, Vandenberg isn't configured to support FH launches. For the time being, AIUI, the only launch complex that will support FH launches will be LC-39A at KSC, right?(snip)
Even they aren't shrinking in weight, anyhow, the NSA apparently has different size birds. The big ones are probably their pride n' joy, SpaceX will have to prove themselves before they get launch contracts for the big (and very expensive) ones.
Quote from: sewebster on 05/21/2016 02:55 amMy understanding is that some reconnaissance satellites are quite massive... ~ 20000 kg? Still within F9 LEO performance on their website, possibly expendable.And just because one of those massed 20 tons 15-20 years ago, isn't there some Moore's law shrinking some of those components down ?
1. And just because one of those massed 20 tons 15-20 years ago, isn't there some Moore's law shrinking some of those components down ?2. Even they aren't shrinking in weight, anyhow, the NSA apparently has different size birds. The big ones are probably their pride n' joy, SpaceX will have to prove themselves before they get launch contracts for the big (and very expensive) ones.I see a progression of bigger and bigger breadcrumbs SpaceX is earning.3. First some low risk mission like the STP-2. Then GPS III launches. Then lower cost DoD birds (I guess NROL-76 is one of them). Probably one or two more steps until SpaceX is qualified to launch anything DoD has. Big GEO comm birds last.
Quote from: macpacheco on 05/21/2016 03:27 am1. And just because one of those massed 20 tons 15-20 years ago, isn't there some Moore's law shrinking some of those components down ?2. Even they aren't shrinking in weight, anyhow, the NSA apparently has different size birds. The big ones are probably their pride n' joy, SpaceX will have to prove themselves before they get launch contracts for the big (and very expensive) ones.I see a progression of bigger and bigger breadcrumbs SpaceX is earning.3. First some low risk mission like the STP-2. Then GPS III launches. Then lower cost DoD birds (I guess NROL-76 is one of them). Probably one or two more steps until SpaceX is qualified to launch anything DoD has. Big GEO comm birds last.1. Doesn't apply to optics and propellant2. NSA doesn't have birds3. Not until larger fairings and vertical integration.
Quote from: Jim on 05/21/2016 02:00 pmQuote from: macpacheco on 05/21/2016 03:27 am1. And just because one of those massed 20 tons 15-20 years ago, isn't there some Moore's law shrinking some of those components down ?2. Even they aren't shrinking in weight, anyhow, the NSA apparently has different size birds. The big ones are probably their pride n' joy, SpaceX will have to prove themselves before they get launch contracts for the big (and very expensive) ones.I see a progression of bigger and bigger breadcrumbs SpaceX is earning.3. First some low risk mission like the STP-2. Then GPS III launches. Then lower cost DoD birds (I guess NROL-76 is one of them). Probably one or two more steps until SpaceX is qualified to launch anything DoD has. Big GEO comm birds last.1. Doesn't apply to optics and propellant2. NSA doesn't have birds3. Not until larger fairings and vertical integration.Regarding 1., improved sensors can make use of smaller optics, and adaptive optics. Also SEP greatly reduces propellant weight. Granted, they may still design for the maximum size/weight anyway, just because they can.
Regarding 1., improved sensors can make use of smaller optics, and adaptive optics. 2. Also SEP greatly reduces propellant weight. Granted, they may still design for the maximum size/weight anyway, just because they can.
Quote from: the_other_Doug on 05/21/2016 12:46 amUm... polar orbit would have to launch out of Vandenberg, right? Last I heard, Vandenberg isn't configured to support FH launches. For the time being, AIUI, the only launch complex that will support FH launches will be LC-39A at KSC, right?(snip)[Jim]Yes, wrong, and no[/Jim]
Anyone trying to guess what that thingy is? Given the capabilities of the F9 and the launch date, I'm betting on it being a SDS data relay bird - the last one was launched 2 years ago and the series seems to have a new bird going up every 2-3 years or so.It could also be a NOSS duo (which can be launched from both coasts) - but there's already a candidate launch mission in the same period (NROL-79 from VAFB - the one the SpaceX tried to bid and missed out).