Looks like half of all flights in 2018 will be used boosters:"WIRED learned from sources with knowledge of the manifest that in 2018, the company intends to fly 50 percent of its 30 planned missions on recycled rockets."https://www.wired.com/story/spacex-gears-up-to-finally-actually-launch-the-falcon-heavy/?mbid=social_twitter_onsiteshare
When will reused first stages be the majority of launches?
The serial full duration tests of the JCSAT-14 booster at McGregor let me think about this. We are getting near to proof that the landed boosters are all capable of reflight. I move a reply in the SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4 here because it is not appropriate there. I argue that contracts signed today for new boosters will not delay the transition. They can and will be renegotiated.Quote from: gongora on 07/31/2016 02:30 pmThere is not going to be any sudden rush to buy reused cores, especially before one has flown. .................Let's give SpaceX a chance to actually qualify a booster for reflight and their customers a chance to get comfortable with the idea before we start assuming everything will suddenly start flying on reused cores.Absolutely true, I agree. But I would bet (just a phrase, I don't bet) that in 2019 most launches will be on reused boosters including contracts already signed for new ones. The contracts will be renegotiated with reusable prices. By that time they will probably have enough cores in store that they don't need to build new ones before the Falcon family is phased out.
There is not going to be any sudden rush to buy reused cores, especially before one has flown. .................Let's give SpaceX a chance to actually qualify a booster for reflight and their customers a chance to get comfortable with the idea before we start assuming everything will suddenly start flying on reused cores.
QuoteWhile Musk takes a lot of credit for his vision, in Shotwell he found the perfect executive to run SpaceX like a finely oiled machine. She is one of the most admired and respected executives in our industry, and an inspiration for young women around the world.http://interactive.satellitetoday.com/via/march-2018/2017-satellite-executive-of-the-year-gwynne-shotwell-president-and-coo-spacex/Couple of interesting snippets in the interview:QuoteWe have 26-30 flights in 2018, but around half of those will be flight proven.[...]
While Musk takes a lot of credit for his vision, in Shotwell he found the perfect executive to run SpaceX like a finely oiled machine. She is one of the most admired and respected executives in our industry, and an inspiration for young women around the world.
We have 26-30 flights in 2018, but around half of those will be flight proven.
@IridiumBoss - Fairing reuse by @SpaceX is close to here. Your view? Iridium will: "be first to"/"ok to, but not FIRST to"/"never" reuse a fairing? Do you see any major risks in reuse? Your thought leadership matters.
Replying to @lar_p @SpaceXOpen to considering, but have a fiduciary duty to customers/employees/investors etc to make the right decision balancing risk and reward. ? is hypothetical; would need to understand risks and rewards - which include schedule, cost, etc. Can't be guinea pig for science's sake.
Matt answered me https://twitter.com/IridiumBoss/status/968242780429602816Quote Replying to @lar_p @SpaceXOpen to considering, but have a fiduciary duty to customers/employees/investors etc to make the right decision balancing risk and reward. ? is hypothetical; would need to understand risks and rewards - which include schedule, cost, etc. Can't be guinea pig for science's sake.Fair enough, I guess... but eventually everyone will want the discount (presumably SpaceX will start charging different prices)...
Matt answered me https://twitter.com/IridiumBoss/status/968242780429602816Quote Replying to @lar_p @SpaceXOpen to considering, but have a fiduciary duty to customers/employees/investors etc to make the right decision balancing risk and reward. ? is hypothetical; would need to understand risks and rewards - which include schedule, cost, etc. Can't be guinea pig for science's sake.
Professionally he's hoping to have his constellation finished before a reasonable expectation of fairing reuse.
A type of reuse I haven’t noticed customers discussing before:Quote@IridiumBoss with the move to allow using flight proven cores, would Iridium now be open to being the first company to use reused Fairings?https://twitter.com/beeberunner/status/943544314096955397QuoteWe're open to anything if it can be proven to improve risk, schedule and cost. We're about getting our amazing next generation network in space as fast and safely as we can, not creating history for its own sake (though happy to do that this week with our fourth launch)!https://twitter.com/iridiumboss/status/943547579001987073
@IridiumBoss with the move to allow using flight proven cores, would Iridium now be open to being the first company to use reused Fairings?
We're open to anything if it can be proven to improve risk, schedule and cost. We're about getting our amazing next generation network in space as fast and safely as we can, not creating history for its own sake (though happy to do that this week with our fourth launch)!
Two new launches:QuoteMaxar Technologies’ DigitalGlobe Selects SpaceX to Launch its Next-generation WorldView Legion SatellitesQuoteThe initial block of the multi-satellite WorldView Legion constellation will be launched by two flight-proven Falcon 9 rockets in 2021.https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20180314005049/en/Maxar-Technologies%E2%80%99-DigitalGlobe-Selects-SpaceX-Launch-Next-generation
Maxar Technologies’ DigitalGlobe Selects SpaceX to Launch its Next-generation WorldView Legion Satellites
The initial block of the multi-satellite WorldView Legion constellation will be launched by two flight-proven Falcon 9 rockets in 2021.
QuoteNASA’s upcoming CRS-14 ISS resupply mission will re-fly SpaceX Falcon 9 booster flown on CRS-12. Dragon previously flew CRS-8.https://twitter.com/flatoday_jdean/status/974719813162602496
NASA’s upcoming CRS-14 ISS resupply mission will re-fly SpaceX Falcon 9 booster flown on CRS-12. Dragon previously flew CRS-8.
Something else to keep in mind is that they are currently beating all their competitors on price. No real reason to lower you costs further when you are already the most affordable option in town. If and when we see competitive prices from the other launchers then I expect to see F9 prices start to come down.
Some relevant Tweets:QuoteTagnan:What about iridium 6? At the very least do you know if it will be reused or not?Matt Desch:Considering, but its a ride share so a little more complicated and hasn't been totally finalized...Tagnan:How much do ride shares get to decide in terms of vehicle used and other options?Matt Desch:It's a cooperative effort, and mostly decided up front in a contract, or in ongoing discussions as you jointly prepare and project manage towards the launch. In this case, we're the lead with SpaceX, but we work to make sure decisions are right for our rideshare partner too.
Tagnan:What about iridium 6? At the very least do you know if it will be reused or not?Matt Desch:Considering, but its a ride share so a little more complicated and hasn't been totally finalized...Tagnan:How much do ride shares get to decide in terms of vehicle used and other options?Matt Desch:It's a cooperative effort, and mostly decided up front in a contract, or in ongoing discussions as you jointly prepare and project manage towards the launch. In this case, we're the lead with SpaceX, but we work to make sure decisions are right for our rideshare partner too.
This launch [Iridium-6 w/GRACE-FO] will be on a flight proven boosterhttps://twitter.com/IridiumBoss/status/976575188614762496
Iridium boss senses shift in SpaceX rhythm with another launch set for Friday
On the eve of the Iridium’s fifth launch with SpaceX, the mobile telecom satellite operator’s chief executive says he no longer has to wait for SpaceX’s rockets to be ready. Instead, Iridium’s satellite team is racing to keep pace churning spacecraft off their assembly line.
“I’m satisfied. It’s meeting our needs,” Desch said of the launch cadence. “We really are focused on completing our Iridium Next constellation this year. I’d like it completed in the third quarter if possible. What I’m really pleased with is that SpaceX has stepped up this year so far. I saw a quote from (SpaceX president and chief operating officer) Gwynne (Shotwell) last week saying it’s nice that she’s waiting on her customers versus the other way around. I think that, at least as it relates to us, is true. We’ve just got to get the satellites ready.
At the time, he said made the change after receiving assurances the previously-flown boosters were no more risky — and perhaps less so — than a newly-built rocket. The switch to reused rockets also kept Iridium’s launch campaigns on schedule — it was clear that waiting for new boosters from SpaceX’s factory would delay the upgraded network’s deployment, Desch said.“We’d be in a different place if we were using new rockets,” Desch said.