SpaceX F9: Space Norway ASBM : VSFB SLC-4E : 11/12 August 2024 (02:02 UTC)

[Ken the Bin]

NGA Rocket Launching notice.

120430Z JUL 24
NAVAREA XII 507/24(21).
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
MEXICO.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, SPACE DEBRIS:
   A. 160340Z TO 160430Z, 170336Z TO 170426Z,
      180332Z TO 180422Z, 190328Z TO 190418Z,
      200324Z TO 200414Z, 210325Z TO 210406Z
      AND 220321Z TO 220402Z JUL
      IN AREA BOUND BY
      29-20.00N 116-27.00W, 28-48.00N 115-45.00W,
      28-12.00N 116-17.00W, 28-45.00N 116-58.00W.
   B. 160340Z TO 160425Z, 170336Z TO 170421Z,
      180332Z TO 180417Z, 190328Z TO 190413Z,
      200324Z TO 200409Z, 210325Z TO 210400Z
      AND 220321Z TO 220356Z JUL
      IN AREA BOUND BY
      30-03.00N 117-14.00W, 30-02.00N 117-11.00W,
      29-57.00N 117-05.00W, 29-48.00N 116-58.00W,
      29-30.00N 116-48.00W, 29-28.00N 116-48.00W,
      29-28.00N 116-50.00W, 29-36.00N 116-58.00W,
      29-48.00N 117-08.00W, 29-58.00N 117-13.00W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 220502Z JUL 24.//

[PM3]

NET Mid-July => NET July

https://spaceflightnow.com/launch-schedule/

[Ken the Bin]

Okay, here's a weird one.

I've been expecting a postponement or cancellation of this notice:

NGA Rocket Launching notice.

120430Z JUL 24
NAVAREA XII 507/24(21).
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
MEXICO.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, SPACE DEBRIS:
   A. 160340Z TO 160430Z, 170336Z TO 170426Z,
      180332Z TO 180422Z, 190328Z TO 190418Z,
      200324Z TO 200414Z, 210325Z TO 210406Z
      AND 220321Z TO 220402Z JUL
      IN AREA BOUND BY
      29-20.00N 116-27.00W, 28-48.00N 115-45.00W,
      28-12.00N 116-17.00W, 28-45.00N 116-58.00W.
   B. 160340Z TO 160425Z, 170336Z TO 170421Z,
      180332Z TO 180417Z, 190328Z TO 190413Z,
      200324Z TO 200409Z, 210325Z TO 210400Z
      AND 220321Z TO 220356Z JUL
      IN AREA BOUND BY
      30-03.00N 117-14.00W, 30-02.00N 117-11.00W,
      29-57.00N 117-05.00W, 29-48.00N 116-58.00W,
      29-30.00N 116-48.00W, 29-28.00N 116-48.00W,
      29-28.00N 116-50.00W, 29-36.00N 116-58.00W,
      29-48.00N 117-08.00W, 29-58.00N 117-13.00W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 220502Z JUL 24.//

... but instead this morning I received this generic NGA Hazardous Operations notice:

150939Z JUL 24
NAVAREA XII 516/24(18).
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
CALIFORNIA.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 
   160340Z TO 160423Z JUL, ALTERNATE 
   170336Z TO 170419Z, 180332Z TO 180415Z, 
   190328Z TO 190411Z, 200324Z TO 200407Z 
   AND 210325Z TO 210358Z JUL
   IN AREA BOUND BY
   34-39.00N 120-39.00W, 34-40.00N 120-36.00W,
   34-28.00N 120-20.00W, 32-16.00N 118-44.00W,
   32-16.00N 118-51.00W, 34-33.00N 120-38.00W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 210458Z JUL 24.//

Note that the dates and start times match the original Space Debris notice except that it doesn't include July 22. The end times are all two minutes earlier than the end times for location B.

[zubenelgenubi]

Okay, here's a weird one.

<snip>

Note that the dates and start times match the original Space Debris notice except that it doesn't include July 22. The end times are all two minutes earlier than the end times for location B.

I sincerely doubt this launch goes tomorrow, July 16.

However, I suggest that we (spaceflight enthusiasts) watch for SpaceX activity at all three Falcon 9 launch complexes.

I know that SLC-4E is not line-of-sight from publicly accessible land, so that would mean sea, air, or space reconnaissance.

Within the law, of course.

The mishap must be investigated, but I suspect that a launch will proceed as soon as possible after return to flight authorization.

Edit July 16: Starlink 9-4 is now the next scheduled Vandenberg Falcon 9 launch, NET July 22 UTC.

[zubenelgenubi]

Starlink 9-4:

NextSpaceflight; updated July 25:
Launch 28 July 07:24 UTC

So, it's not a surprise:

NextSpaceflight; updated July 26:

Arctic Satellite Broadband Mission (ASBM)
Launch Time
NET August 2024

But, launch could be in earliest August, because OCISLY turnaround may not be needed.

Re-post; expendable first stage?

<snip>
I'd expect this to delay at least a day or two, this would be a pad turnaround record for SLC-4E with Starlink Group 9-3 scheduled at a similar time on the 11th. Current SLC-4E turnaround record is 4.5 days.

Does this give any hint to if its expendable?

Perhaps.  Assuming that the schedule is indeed as listed above, SpaceX means to launch ~3 days after the previous launch.

The payload mass is too heavy for a first stage landing at LZ-1.

This is apparently too short a time for OCISLY to turnaround via the Port of Long Beach, implying an expended launch.  B1061.22?

Looking further ahead, if this launch goes ASAP, SpaceX may launch another Starlink Group 9 before Transporter-11.  Or, it could launch the third Starshield cluster for the NRO.

Transporter-11:

Celestis now states launch is TBD.
https://www.celestis.com/launch-schedule/harmony-flight/

Now "No earlier than August 15".

[zubenelgenubi]

Starlink 9-4 launch on July 28 was successful.  We'll see if this launch is next, in August.

[Bean Kenobi]

Starlink 9-4 launch on August 28 was successful.  We'll see if this launch is next.

July 28

[zubenelgenubi]

Cross-posts:

And...drumrolls...it's Starlink Group 11-1 with the steel chair! [NET August 4 from Vandenberg]

...now here comes Starlink Group 8-3 (!) from Florida: [Moved from Vandenberg]

The second of the two mentioned launches?:

Celestis update [Aug 1]

Latest update! 📍We were informed today by our Harmony Flight service provider, SEOPS, that the target launch date for the Harmony Flight remains no earlier than August 15, 2024 from Vandenberg Space Force Base (SFB), California.

Currently, Space Launch Complex-4 (SLC-4) at Vandenberg SFB has two scheduled rocket launches before the Transporter-11 mission carrying our Harmony Flight. The success of these two rockets will have an impact on the Harmony launch date. We will monitor the SLC-4 schedule closely and keep you updated with any change.

This launch could be ~August 8, as OCISLY turnaround may not be needed.

[VLN]

Shared with me: Notification of Jalama Beach evacuation for a launch Aug 11 at 7pm PDT (8/12 0200 UTC). Might that be Space Norway ASBM?

[catdlr]

Shared with me: Notification of Jalama Beach evacuation for a launch Aug 11 at 7pm PDT (8/12 0200 UTC). Might that be Space Norway ASBM?

Transporter 11 (but on the 15th)??

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=58043.msg2609974#msg2609974

Also, make sure you sign up for launch alerts directly from the base:

https://public.govdelivery.com/accounts/USDODSFVANDENBERG/signup/41755

[zubenelgenubi]

Shared with me: Notification of Jalama Beach evacuation for a launch Aug 11 at 7pm PDT (8/12 0200 UTC). Might that be Space Norway ASBM?

It could very well be.  Stay tuned!

[zubenelgenubi]

Launch date/time confirmation:
SFN Launch Schedule, updated August 5:
Launch 12 August 02:00 UTC = 11 Aug 7:00 pm PDT

[VLN]

Confirming Space Norway is back on the schedule!
FAA has announced launch hazard zones for ASBM, similar to last month.
First launch window begins Aug 11 at 7:00 pm PDT. Six more opportunities, one per day, advancing 4 min earlier each day.

B0627/24 NOTAMN
Q) MMFR/QRDCA/IV/BO/W/000/999/
A) MMFR
B) 2408120200
C) 2408180211
D) 12 0200-0235, 13 0156-0231, 14 0152-0227, 15 0148-0223,
   16 0144-0219, 17 0140-0215, 18 0136-0211
E) DANGEROUS AREA FOR FALLING DEBRIS OF ROCKET FALCON 9 ASBM
   LATERAL LIMIT 2 AREAS FORMED BY THE UNION OF THE FLW POINTS:
   AREA 1
   30 18N  117 29W
   30 22N  117 21W
   29 21N  116 38W
   29 17N  116 46W
   30 18N  117 29W
   AREA 2
   29 20N  116 27W
   28 48N  115 45W
   28 12N  116 17W
   28 45N  116 58W
   29 20N  116 27W
   MMFR
F) SFC
G) UNL

[catdlr]

Confirming Space Norway is back on the schedule!
FAA has announced launch hazard zones for ASBM, similar to last month.
First launch window begins Aug 11 at 7:00 pm PDT. Six more opportunities, one per day, advancing 4 min earlier each day.

Shared with me: Notification of Jalama Beach evacuation for a launch Aug 11 at 7pm PDT (8/12 0200 UTC). Might that be Space Norway ASBM?

That confirms the Jalama Beach evacuation for the same date and time.  Good for you VLN.

[Ken the Bin]

NGA Space Debris notice that is effectively a Rocket Launching notice.

062153Z AUG 24
NAVAREA XII 594/24(21).
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
MEXICO.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, SPACE DEBRIS:
   A. 120200Z TO 120235Z, 130156Z TO 130231Z, 
      140152Z TO 140227Z, 150148Z TO 150223Z, 
      160144Z TO 160219Z, 170140Z TO 170215Z,
      AND 180136Z TO 180211Z AUG
      IN AREA BOUND BY
      29-20.00N 116-27.00W, 28-48.00N 115-45.00W,
      28-12.00N 116-17.00W, 28-45.00N 116-58.00W.
   B. 120200Z TO 120230Z, 130156Z TO 130226Z, 
      140152Z TO 140222Z, 150148Z TO 150218Z, 
      160144Z TO 160214Z, 170140Z TO 170210Z,
      AND 180136Z TO 180206Z AUG
      IN AREA BOUND BY
      30-10.00N 117-23.00W, 30-14.00N 117-15.00W,
      29-24.00N 116-41.00W, 29-20.00N 116-48.00W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 180311Z AUG 24.

[ApolloLee]

What are the chances it will be visible at this inclination from.Nevada or Southern Utah?

[Martin_G]

https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_spt.jsp:

SPACEX ABSM, VANDENBERG SFB, CA
PRIMARY:   08/12/24   0200Z-0235Z
BACKUP:      08/13/24   0156Z-0231Z
      08/14/24   0152Z-0227Z
      08/15/24   0148Z-0223Z
      08/16/24   0144Z-0219Z
      08/17/24   0140Z-0215Z
      08/18/24   0136Z-0211Z

[VLN]

What are the chances it will be visible at this inclination from.Nevada or Southern Utah?

First of all, it depends on whether skies are clear where you are. Assuming they are, and the glare of city lights isn't too much...

Seen from St George, the main engine cutoff (MECO) occurs while the rocket is just below the local horizon. So you probably won't see the first stage going up from that distance. The second stage starts up about 12 seconds later, and keeps going up, reaching about 8 deg above the horizon.
You may also see the first stage at its reentry burn, about 6:10 after launch. (It really helps to listen to the livestream so you know what's going on.)
This all appears to the southwest.

[rsmath]

What are the chances it will be visible at this inclination from.Nevada or Southern Utah?

not very good chances.  Launch takes place just before sunset in St. George, so while the launch vehicle sunlit criteria is met, the sky will be too bright to see that illuminated launch vehicle.

[OneSpeed]

What are the chances it will be visible at this inclination from.Nevada or Southern Utah?

not very good chances.  Launch takes place just before sunset in St. George, so while the launch vehicle sunlit criteria is met, the sky will be too bright to see that illuminated launch vehicle.

Here is a map of the line-of-sight visibility and the terminator at thirty second intervals for a 7pm PDT launch. As you suggest, St. George will have line-of-sight to the vehicle from about T+2:00, but you would be looking towards the setting sun. The launch would need to be about an hour later for there to be a good jellyfish opportunity.