Author Topic: SES’s AMC-9 satellite drifting after anomaly  (Read 24864 times)

Offline vt_hokie

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Re: SES’s AMC-9 satellite drifting after anomaly
« Reply #20 on: 07/24/2017 03:59 pm »
The question is whether the spacecraft still retains orbital adjustment authority. If the causative anomaly was a fault in the propellent system of either the RCS or MPS then the satellite may not be controllable beyond attitude control (if it has reaction wheels).

Even reaction wheels require thrusters or magnetic torquers to unload momentum and prevent the wheels from saturating.  But I think that's a moot point for this satellite, sadly. 

Offline Star One

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Re: SES’s AMC-9 satellite drifting after anomaly
« Reply #21 on: 08/07/2017 05:49 pm »
SES trying to retire AMC-9, uncertain on debris origin

Quote
Satellite fleet operator SES says it will retire the malfunctioning AMC-9 satellite a year early if it can regain control of the spacecraft.

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The company has also not been able to confirm if debris spotted in the satellite’s vicinity broke off from the spacecraft or originated elsewhere.

http://spacenews.com/ses-trying-to-retire-amc-9-uncertain-on-debris-origin/

Offline Thomas Dorman

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Re: SES’s AMC-9 satellite drifting after anomaly
« Reply #22 on: 08/15/2017 08:49 am »
Star One
Observed AMC-9  a little over two weeks ago and it was still flashing and Kevin Fetter in Canada has observed it in the last 24 hour and it continues to flash. Any illusion that this satellite will be retired in the conventional sense  is just that an illusion off. AMC 9 is toast and will be a problem in geosat orbit for years to come.
Regards
Thomas

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SES’s AMC-9 satellite drifting after anomaly
« Reply #23 on: 09/18/2017 01:59 pm »
Quote
Peter B. de Selding‏ @pbdes 14m14 minutes ago

Manufacturer of @SES_Satellites AMC-9, @Thales_Alenia_S says no sign of breakup despite @exoanalytic radar images.

https://www.spaceintelreport.com/amc-9-satellite-builder-says-theres-absolutely-no-sign-orbit-breakup/

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/909775092359532544

Offline Ben the Space Brit

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Re: SES’s AMC-9 satellite drifting after anomaly
« Reply #24 on: 09/18/2017 03:39 pm »
Every Internet disaster connoisseur knows about Kessler Syndrome and I have no doubt that satellite manufacturers and operators have a standing policy of denial of any hint that a satellite has broken up (especially in an energetic way) to avoid creating investor panic.

This almost certainly includes a policy of 'I didn't see any pictures' when, as in the case of AMC-9, the breakup has actually been recorded.

I'm anticipating the following sequence of disclaimers from Thales:

1. "There is no evidence that AMC-9 has broken up";
2. "Those images have either been altered or the 'debris' traces are photographic flaws";
3. "The image is being misinterpreted by those without technical knowledge";
4. "There is no indication of an energetic break-up";
5. "All debris is being tracked and there is no indication that the energetic break-up with imperil other spacecraft."
6. "All debris is being tracked and all spacecraft that are plausibly at risk are already carrying out debris avoidance manoeuvres";
7. "The chance of debris that cannot be tracked due to size or low albedo actually contacting another active spacecraft are vanishingly small";
8. "There is no legally-admissible evidence that the loss of [$Satellite_Designation] is in any way related to the break-up of AMC-9".
« Last Edit: 09/18/2017 04:23 pm by Ben the Space Brit »
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Offline savuporo

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Re: SES’s AMC-9 satellite drifting after anomaly
« Reply #25 on: 09/18/2017 03:49 pm »
The gist of it is here

Quote
Radar images show something that appears to be debris alongside AMC-9.

What that is I don’t know. There are lots of theories, including that it could be elements of propulsion — gases that were emitted and then froze, and that now produce a  radar signature resembling satellite debris.

SES, which gets information from space agencies looking at the situation, has also concluded that there is no evidence showing a breakup.

Could it be a thermal blanket that detached? I suppose that’s possible but the information we have indicates a satellite that is whole.

On one hand, he basically says telemetry confirms full structural integrity of the sat. However, right above there he says attitude control ( and possibly main propulsion ) has taken a hit

Quote
Since then, we have reestablished full control. We receive the telemetry, the satellite receives our commands. The satellite is in a stable condition and we are now preparing the de-orbiting procedure.

That takes some time because the the attitude control, while stable, is not optimal. We need to adapt a command sequence to accommodate the fact that the satellite is turning on itself. But it’s a predictable sequence and we now know the condition of the satellite.

We are optimizing the sequence to boost the satellite into a retirement orbit. This will take several weeks because we cannot order thruster firings as we would in a satellite that was in normal health.


This one got me: it could be elements of propulsion — gases that were emitted and then froze, and that now produce a  radar signature resembling satellite debris.. Yeah, these satellite-emitted propulsion elements would be called ... satellite debris.
« Last Edit: 09/18/2017 04:03 pm by savuporo »
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Offline kevin-rf

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Re: SES’s AMC-9 satellite drifting after anomaly
« Reply #26 on: 09/18/2017 03:56 pm »
I just read it as tons of legal speak to provide cover to deny everything possible with very little new hard information.
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Online Comga

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Re: SES’s AMC-9 satellite drifting after anomaly
« Reply #27 on: 09/18/2017 09:20 pm »
Can some one explain the motion in the video of the largest bright fragment from AMC 9 AKA GE 12. Having now taken the video apart and looked closely  this fragment is at first moving away from AMC 9 then makes what looks like a near 180 degree turn and moves back towards AMC 9.
Thomas

The video was tracking the satellite itself.  The motion of the fragment(s) is then relative to the main body of the satellite.  If some propulsive event moved the main body of the satellite in the direction of the largest fragment, it would give the appearance of the fragment moving back towards the satellite.  This is only one possible explanation, of course; I suppose the fragment itself might've experienced an impulse somehow.  It should be fairly easy for somebody with access to the raw data to tell if the satellite's motion changed during the observation.  I bet you could take a few frames on either side of the apparent change in motion of the fragment and check the motion of the main piece and fragment relative to the background stars before and after the event, see which one changed.

Remember, this is in a rotating coordinate system.  As we know, it only looks like it's standing still.

In the rotating coordinate system of orbit, an object that is released from another will follow curved relative paths.  If the release is at right angle from the initial objects velocity, the orbital period won't be changed and the released object will arc back to the main body after one revolution, here one day.  Because the period will in practice be modified by some number of seconds the released object will wind up in a slightly longer or shorter orbit, and walk either backwards or forwards with respect to the main body.  Every time it circles back, at the end of N days, it will be a little farther from the main body.

This all happens without subsequent impulse events.  You can read about the Clohessy-Wiltshire equations online and in textbooks.

The multiple object passing by looks like a typical grouping in geosynchronous orbit. It appears, in this video, that AMC-9 is drifting back along the geosynchronous belt, and ran into a satellite keeping station.

Gosh that voiceover is SUPER annoying.  Gibberish.  Goofy stuff.  Just because he doesn't understand does not mean the most logical explanations are aliens or an active shooting war in geosynchronous orbit.  "Never attribute to malice what is adequately explained by stupidity."  (I am referring to the satellite breakup but it could refer to the guy speaking.)
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

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Re: SES’s AMC-9 satellite drifting after anomaly
« Reply #28 on: 09/19/2017 08:08 am »
Quote
Peter B. de Selding‏ @pbdes 14m14 minutes ago

Manufacturer of @SES_Satellites AMC-9, @Thales_Alenia_S says no sign of breakup despite @exoanalytic radar images.

https://www.spaceintelreport.com/amc-9-satellite-builder-says-theres-absolutely-no-sign-orbit-breakup/

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/909775092359532544

Just tweeted:

Quote
Update: @exoanalytic responding to @Thales_Alenia_S, stands by its original report, will update at @amoscon this wk.

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/910048377102045184

Offline Ben the Space Brit

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Re: SES’s AMC-9 satellite drifting after anomaly
« Reply #29 on: 09/19/2017 12:12 pm »
I'm glad that Exoanalytic are not letting even a big player like Thales get away with essentially calling them either liars or fools.
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Offline Thomas Dorman

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Re: SES’s AMC-9 satellite drifting after anomaly
« Reply #30 on: 09/19/2017 03:13 pm »
See this across the internet claiming the Exoanlytic' video was made by radar. Can anyone explain!
Regards
Thomas

Offline Thomas Dorman

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Re: SES’s AMC-9 satellite drifting after anomaly
« Reply #31 on: 09/19/2017 03:17 pm »
The ExoAnalytic Global Telescope Network consists of over 150 ground-based telescopes located in North America, South America, Australia, Africa, Europe, and Hawaii.
Clearly not radar imagery!
« Last Edit: 09/19/2017 03:18 pm by Thomas Dorman »

Online jgoldader

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Re: SES’s AMC-9 satellite drifting after anomaly
« Reply #32 on: 09/19/2017 11:00 pm »
I can't see how the video linked to by FutureSpaceTourist on page 1 on this thread could be from radar.  You would not see star trails in a radar image, just for starters.  On the other hand, it has every appearance of being from an optical camera attached to a telescope.

Maybe there were radar detections of some sort, but they'd be independent of the video.

Also, Comga's explanation of the apparent reversed motion potentially** being simply due to different orbital elements is quite possible, and probably more likely than mine: Occam's razor.

**Modified for clarification: If the orbital elements (in particular eccentricity) are different, then I can see how you'd get back-and-forth motion of one object relative to the other.  The "if" is the potentially part.  Again, I believe Comga's got it right.
« Last Edit: 09/20/2017 09:33 pm by jgoldader »
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Offline synchrotron

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Re: SES’s AMC-9 satellite drifting after anomaly
« Reply #33 on: 09/20/2017 03:10 pm »
Also, Comga's explanation of the apparent reversed motion potentially being simply due to different orbital elements is quite possible, and probably more likely than mine: Occam's razor.

It's not 'potentially being simply due to' different eccentricities, it's actually due to it. It's basic orbital mechanics.

Offline Star One

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SES’s AMC-9 satellite drifting after anomaly
« Reply #34 on: 09/26/2017 02:49 pm »
It is now giving bright flashes.

http://www.satobs.org/seesat/Sep-2017/0124.html

Here is the relevant new video from Kevin Fetter.

« Last Edit: 09/26/2017 02:49 pm by Star One »

Offline Ben the Space Brit

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Re: SES’s AMC-9 satellite drifting after anomaly
« Reply #35 on: 09/27/2017 12:42 pm »
So, the flash means that there the spacecraft is rotating? Could that be an outcome of Thales' reported upcoming attempt to use the thrusters to push the vehicle into a safer orbit?
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Offline kevin-rf

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Re: SES’s AMC-9 satellite drifting after anomaly
« Reply #36 on: 09/27/2017 01:10 pm »
Rotating or tumbling, as rotating about more than one axis at different rates?
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Offline Thomas Dorman

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Re: SES’s AMC-9 satellite drifting after anomaly
« Reply #37 on: 09/27/2017 10:46 pm »
The reason for the very bright flash from AMC 9 on Kevin Fetter's video, at this time, has to do with what happens visually with Geosats around the spring and fall equinox where GeoSats give off very bright flashes which some can easily be seen with the naked eye.  It has nothing to do with anyone doing anything with AMC9. As far as we know there have been zero reports that they have regained any control over  AMC 9. Observed AMC 9 visually around a month or so ago and it was flashing then and has been flashing since the failure event took place!
Just for the recorded Kevin Fetter is one of the world best amateur Satellite videographers who use relatively low-cost equipment and has been the first to capture, on video, several important satellites, no long after launch and events over the years.
Very nice video capture Kevin of the flash from AMC 9!
Regards
Thomas
« Last Edit: 09/27/2017 10:47 pm by Thomas Dorman »

Offline Sam Ho

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Re: SES’s AMC-9 satellite drifting after anomaly
« Reply #38 on: 09/27/2017 10:57 pm »
Rotating or tumbling, as rotating about more than one axis at different rates?

Thales said, in an interview mentioned up-thread, that "the attitude control, while stable, is not optimal" and "the satellite is turning on itself."  It appears that they are timing commanding and thruster firing based on when AMC-9 is in the appropriate attitude; Thales expects to get AMC-9 into a graveyard orbit in "several weeks."

Quote
Peter B. de Selding‏ @pbdes 14m14 minutes ago

Manufacturer of @SES_Satellites AMC-9, @Thales_Alenia_S says no sign of breakup despite @exoanalytic radar images.

https://www.spaceintelreport.com/amc-9-satellite-builder-says-theres-absolutely-no-sign-orbit-breakup/

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/909775092359532544

Offline Thomas Dorman

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Re: SES’s AMC-9 satellite drifting after anomaly
« Reply #39 on: 09/27/2017 11:39 pm »
First, the report linked is more the opinion of the reporter. The statement from SES  should be taken with a grain of salt and is more like a statement of damage control with shareholders. There clearly was a break-up having taken this video apart and studied it closely. Nope, it was not a total break-up AMC 9! SES are playing a word game which we believe is for damage control with its shareholders. AMC 9 is still drifting west down the GeoSat belt and the only change we can see is the loop-de-loop it has been making has become a little more elongated over time. Maybe SES would feel better if it was called a fragmentation of AMC 9! ;)

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