Author Topic: Ariane 6 Discussion Thread: Place Your Ariane 6 Discussions Here  (Read 794152 times)

Offline Hog

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Hmm, latter half of the decade when block I probably won’t fly until 2024? I suspect end of the decade is more likely for block II.



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"Ariane 6 Block II" is the name Arianespace is giving to the upgraded Ariane 6 rocket they're envisioning for the later half of the decade.

20% increase in performance to LEO with new upper stage and solid rocket motors.

Space is hard.
« Last Edit: 10/20/2022 01:32 am by Hog »
Paul

Offline GWH

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Hmm, latter half of the decade when block I probably won’t fly until 2024? I suspect end of the decade is more likely for block II.



Quote
"Ariane 6 Block II" is the name Arianespace is giving to the upgraded Ariane 6 rocket they're envisioning for the later half of the decade.

20% increase in performance to LEO with new upper stage and solid rocket motors.

Space is hard.

...and it's extra hard when you build massive hydrogen sustainer cores with giant solid rocket motors/booster on the side.

Offline Star One

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Is there anyone on here that is seriously expecting Ariane 6 to actually fly in any part of 2023, because I am sure not.

Offline DreamyPickle

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Sorry but ArianeGroup, CNES and Avio really have to explain how what caused their pis por performance.
If ESA/European memberstate ministers are wise (they are not) they demand this explanation. Without proper explanation no additional funding should go to project from these companies.

This sounds a lot like "the beating will continue until morale improves".

People like to pretend this isn't so but Ariane 6 isn't just *late*, it's *obsolete*. The entire architecture is focused on building a "better Ariane 5" but since then reusability has been thoroughly proven and Ariane 6 first stage has no serious path to reuse. The hydrolox core + solid booster design can't be made reusable, you need to restart from scratch using different fuel and engines.

If the EU wants independent access to space at a reasonable price then continued investments in THEMIS and SUSIE are essential. Otherwise around 2025 the market will have multiple reusable providers that undercut each other to launch constellations and all of which will be priced much lower than Ariane 6 costs.

There is also the temptation to dismiss LEO constellation as a mere fad - this is would be worse than ignoring reusability. Together the factors of reusable launchers and high demand from LEO constellations will absolutely crush expendable rockets.

Offline ZachF

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Is there anyone on here that is seriously expecting Ariane 6 to actually fly in any part of 2023, because I am sure not.

Based on this announcement, I’d expect the first launch in Q2 2024 and the second launch sometime in 2025…


It’s honestly amazing how terribly this program is going. I mean, Starship is going to handily beat it to orbit, which is probably something I would not have believed a few years ago.
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Offline ZachF

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Quelle surprise (not)

https://twitter.com/chrisg_nsf/status/1582750512784769031

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#Ariane6 first flight now expected no earlier than "last quarter 2023" according to ESA, ArianeGroup in update to media just now.

(Credit: @brickmack)

That means first operational Arianespace Ariane 6 launch NET Q2/2024!
( x Galileo, CSO-3, Optus-11, Viasat ...   ? :-\  )
Think the phone at Hawthorne is getting a lot of calls to secured future launch slots.  ;)

Probably related news:

https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/1583048671733878784?s=21
artist, so take opinions expressed above with a well-rendered grain of salt...
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Questions, why not give the money from Ariane7 to RFA or Isar Aerospace?

Why not give Susie's money to SpaceRider-ThalesAlenia to improve a crew spacecraft?

Why not stop funding ArianeGroup?

If Europe's solution is Maia Space, it will be a disaster... Maia is ArianeGroup...
The knowledge is power...Everything is connected...
The Turtle continues at a steady pace ...

Offline abaddon

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As a US citizen I try not to comment here very often as I am often uneducated about nuances of European matters.  (But I read the thread because I want to be educated about same, particularly in space matters!).

That said, while I understand some consternation, a ~three year slip from the target date at inception back in 2015 seems within the range of normalcy for the industry, especially when factoring in the unprecedented world-wide pandemic we all have just been going through and coming out of.  I think that pandemic hit projects like Ariane 6 even harder than e.g. new rockets from ULA or SpaceX or Blue Origin (let alone NASA's SLS), because of the built-in nature of sourcing components across a wide array of companies distributed across many countries.  Even being part of the same economic zone, that's going to be harder to do in a pandemic.  And those rockets from ULA and SpaceX and Blue Origin are also delayed from their original target dates by varying amounts.  It's really hard to make new rockets, especially big ones, and it seems like dates are always optimistic (no, it's not just "Elon Time", it's "Rocket Time").

So... disappointing, sure.  But it feels like it's not outside the bounds of expected results.  And due to the more conservative nature of the design, it feels like A6 will be able to get off the ground and ramp up its flight cadence more quickly than some of the other competitors.  (I'd bet Vulcan and A6 are pretty quick for this reason, Starship will take longer, and New Glenn will take even longer).  It should be a fine rocket supporting European access to space and already has a commercial backlog long enough to sustain it for a reasonable period of time.  Long enough to hopefully give Europe a chance to design an A7 that will be more competitive in a partially/fully reusable future.  Which all seems... ok?

Just my two cents and change.

Offline Rik ISS-fan

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Sorry but ArianeGroup, CNES and Avio really have to explain how what caused their pis por performance.
If ESA/European memberstate ministers are wise (they are not) they demand this explanation. Without proper explanation no additional funding should go to project from these companies. So
NO THEMIS. Contract the France startup's Opus Aerospace and Sirius Space Services, to use the first stage of their microlaunchers to develop a reusable first stage demonstrator.
...

Emphasis mine.
Why not the German companies Rocket Factory Augsburg, Isar Aerospace or HyImpulse? They're far more advanced than these french startups and their launchers are much more capable.

AFAIK Themis was and is mainly funded by France, thus work would be done in France. If a German startup is selected Germany needs to fund a larger portion of Themis.
I've also a technical reason to prefer these French startups. They utilize pressure feed engines, these are much less difficult to develop. This is shown by the fact that a group of DARE students can develop a engine in two years time.

The smaller, simpler launchers are less expansive, thus for the same funding more testing can be done. But I've no problem with any microlauncher company getting the contract. I think for 10% of the funding required for Themis, two startups can do the tests, in much less time.
Also don't forget launchers from the UK. Both Orbex Prime first stage and the Skyrora XL first stage are candidates.

In my opinion, ESA/Europe needs the capability to land a first stage, put a payload on the moon and on mars. Thus propulsive landing technology. Europe needs to set up project like the Northrop Grumman Lunar Lander Challenge (NG-LLC). But in my opinion with the minimal requirement to launch a 100kg payload above 100km. (
There are two test locations the Diamond pad at CSG and LZ-3 at SSC Esrange.

Has anyone any info on the Callisto reusable rocket demonstrator. Wasn't that supposed to launch in 2020?
What happned with this project from CNES, DLR & JAXA?

I don't see any technological progress being made by funding Themis and/or SUSIE. This will only involve desk studies by the legacy industrial giants. Themis requires Prometheus, that won't be ready by 2025. Susie requires the results from Themis. For this ministerial that funds projects for 2023 to 2025 Themis and Susie should be rejected. The technology that could be developed by Themis can be developed by the reusable stage competition.
Susie also benefits from this competition. And the Expert reentry demonstrator needs to be flown. It's a micro launcher payload.
Possibly the results from Expert and the reusable stage can be used for scaled down Susie launched on a micro launcher or Vega E (by around 2028). But that's for the next ESA ministerial.
This is what can be done to mature reusable technology in Europe. Besides getting Space Rider operational.
But very likely several hundred mln euro will be waisted on Themis and Susie. instead of actually progressing technology.

The Astris Kick-stage, P120C+/P160 and the Icarus upper stage will allow the block 2 version of Ariane 62 to launch more payloads. Thus less boosters used per launch allowing higher launch rate. The most expansive/ limiting system to increase production are the P120C solid rocket motors. I think with higher production efficiency the Ariane 6 LLPM and ULPM can be produced at higher rates after some years.
I think these three projects could be funded during the ESA ministerial. With conditions that Ariane 6 get's operational by Q4 2023. I don't expect and do not accept further delays. Lawsuits should start when that happens, for abuse of taxpayer money.

Offline Steven Pietrobon

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Has anyone any info on the Callisto reusable rocket demonstrator. Wasn't that supposed to launch in 2020?
What happned with this project from CNES, DLR & JAXA?

Callisto has been delayed to 2024. See the Callisto thread below for more information.

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41330.msg2405556#msg2405556
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Offline john smith 19

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Ariane boss insists Europe’s new rocket can compete with Musk’s SpaceX

Quote from: politico.eu
The new Ariane 6 rocket system will be competitive with Elon Musk’s SpaceX despite it lagging behind on reusable technology, said André-Hubert Roussel, CEO of Ariane Group, which runs the aerospace project.

The long-delayed Ariane 6 system should finally launch in the fourth quarter of 2023, and Roussel said that while it won't include such cost-slashing technology as SpaceX it could eventually be possible to carry out a launch every two weeks, though only up to 12 in a full calendar year.

“Ariane 6 is the guarantee of autonomous access to space for Europe,” Roussel told POLITICO, while confirming tentative plans to carry out a maiden launch of the next-generation rocket by the close of next year, though the first full-scale commercial launch will only happen in 2024.
"guarantee of autonomous access to space for Europe"
True.
Guarantee sustainable access to space to space? Guarantee competitively priced access to space to space (so people other than European governments want to buy launches)?
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Online FutureSpaceTourist

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https://twitter.com/sciguyspace/status/1584546744506916864

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Fab overview of the Ariane 6 delay by @ESpaceflight:

https://www.getrevue.co/profile/andrewparsonson/issues/who-should-take-responsibility-for-ariane-6-delay-1412780

"As a father who is trying to teach my daughter to accept responsibility ... I am so very disappointed with how little of that attribute was shown by the adults in the room during the Ariane 6 update"

Offline Rondaz

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Last Thursday at dawn: the @Ariane6 #Combined #Test model is proudly standing into the #ZL4 #Mobile #Gantry.

https://twitter.com/thivallee/status/1601931479528898565

Offline Rondaz

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Last week, the #ELA4 gantry opened its doors to us again to reveal a most spatial spectacle: #Ariane6 complete and erected under the mobile gantry since mid-October. One of the highlights of this year 2022 at Europe's spaceport!

https://twitter.com/EuropeSpacePort/status/1602263993929826304

Offline Hobbes-22

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From the Updates thread, this photo of the new ship that will transport Ariane 6 parts to Kourou:



Quite astonishing they're switching to an open-deck design. MV Toucan had a closed Ro-Ro deck.
Or are those panels aft of the bridge covers for the Ro-ro deck ?
« Last Edit: 12/22/2022 08:05 pm by Hobbes-22 »

Offline calapine

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All renders depicting the finished ship I have ever seen retain the open deck layout.
So does this real life model presented by Arianegroup.
Assuming that's the final design.



« Last Edit: 12/22/2022 08:22 pm by calapine »

Offline Rik ISS-fan

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From the Updates thread, this photo of the new ship that will transport Ariane 6 parts to Kourou:



Quite astonishing they're switching to an open-deck design. MV Toucan had a closed Ro-Ro deck.
Or are those panels aft of the bridge covers for the Ro-ro deck ?

I think these covers are for a tween deck. Cargo can be placed on top of it. But these covers could also serve as deck covers for the lower deck. This is a more versatile design than a standard single deck Ro-Ro ship.
I think the same ship design can be used for short sea container shipping.

Offline ZachF

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From the Updates thread, this photo of the new ship that will transport Ariane 6 parts to Kourou:



Quite astonishing they're switching to an open-deck design. MV Toucan had a closed Ro-Ro deck.
Or are those panels aft of the bridge covers for the Ro-ro deck ?

Looks expensive.
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Offline Mamut

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This thing will be potentialy used for transporting Ariane 6 components across Europe before shiping to South America.
https://twitter.com/_FLYING_WHALES_/status/1610998374022500352

Online darkenfast

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From the Updates thread, this photo of the new ship that will transport Ariane 6 parts to Kourou:



Quite astonishing they're switching to an open-deck design. MV Toucan had a closed Ro-Ro deck.
Or are those panels aft of the bridge covers for the Ro-ro deck ?

Looks expensive.

Any new ship is expensive. But this new ship should be more economical to operate. Minimal crew, sail-assisted, and versatile.
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