Author Topic: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 2  (Read 245330 times)

Offline Galactic Penguin SST

The decision wasn't made public till April 29.

Basically it's a repeat of what happened to Thaicom 6 - Orbital building the satellite (Star-2 bus, ~3.1 tonnes, 24 Ku-band transponders) and SpaceX launching it in 2016. Apparently the satellite and launch services costs amounts to $US 178.5 million.

http://www.spacenews.com/article/satellite-telecom/40420orbital-to-build-spacex-to-launch-thaicom-8
« Last Edit: 03/08/2016 07:26 pm by Chris Bergin »
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Offline Barrie

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #1 on: 05/05/2014 02:29 pm »

Offline kevin-rf

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #2 on: 05/05/2014 02:54 pm »
So, how much of the $18.5 million difference between Thaicom 6 ($160 million) and Thaicom 8 ($178.5 million) is due to inflation and how much is due to discounts provided by SpaceX on Thaicom 6?
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Offline docmordrid

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #3 on: 05/06/2014 02:51 am »
Remember that's the full mission cost, not SpaceX's cut alone.

Quote
Including expenses for the satellite, launch, ground segment and insurance, the Thaicom 8 project is expected to cost $178.5 million.

Changes in any or all of those other items could account for the difference.
« Last Edit: 05/06/2014 02:55 am by docmordrid »
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Offline cmj9808

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #4 on: 05/06/2014 11:03 am »
So, how much of the $18.5 million difference between Thaicom 6 ($160 million) and Thaicom 8 ($178.5 million) is due to inflation and how much is due to discounts provided by SpaceX on Thaicom 6?

I guess payload contributes the most part, with 24 C and 9 Ku for Thaicom 6 vs 24 Ku for Thaicom 8.

Offline Nomadd

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #5 on: 05/06/2014 12:02 pm »
 You'd think insurance would drop quite a bit, since they're going on a more proven ride. But, Spacenews reports that the $178 million doesn't include insurance, since the policy hasn't been procured yet.
http://www.spacenews.com/article/satellite-telecom/40420orbital-to-build-spacex-to-launch-thaicom-8
 The agreement regarding relaunch in case of failure can make a difference too.
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Offline sdsds

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #6 on: 05/20/2014 02:03 am »
Orbital Begins Production of Thaicom 8 Commercial Communications Satellite
-- Company Scheduled to Deliver its Second Satellite For Thaicom in the First Half of 2016 --
-- THAICOM 8 to Provide Ku-Band Services to Thailand, South Asia and Africa --

(Dulles, VA 19 May 2014) – Orbital Sciences Corporation (NYSE: ORB), one of the world’s leading space technology companies, announced today that Thaicom PLC (SET Index: THCOM) has authorized the company to begin the development, manufacturing, integration and testing process for the THAICOM 8 commercial communications satellite.

http://www.orbital.com/NewsInfo/release.asp?prid=1899
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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #7 on: 05/11/2015 05:47 pm »
New thread for your manifest evaluation fun times!

Thread 1:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=32503.0

Reason we need a new thread as the other one was becoming more "general discussion". Let's keep this one focused on new missions/contracts and such. Once we get closer to the new launches, we'll start a specific thread(s).

So for instance. CRS-8....we'll be starting threads for that.

Space writer tweets "X company signs X deal for X satellites on FH in 2019" - post in here (and that can be discussed in here).
« Last Edit: 05/11/2015 05:50 pm by Chris Bergin »
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Offline NX-0

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #8 on: 05/11/2015 06:06 pm »
Is CRS-8 currently on-track for September 2?

Looking forward to seeing BEAM in action.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #9 on: 05/11/2015 06:29 pm »
Question: roughly how long from announcement of winning a bid until launch?
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Offline Norm38

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #10 on: 05/11/2015 06:43 pm »
Quote from: anton_P6
(NET)
19 June   2015   SpX CRS-7        Falcon 9 (v1.1)
15 July    2015   SES-9               Falcon 9 (v1.2)
22 July    2015   Jason 3             Falcon 9 (v1.1 I presume)
Aug-Sept 2015   Orbcomm OG2  Falcon 9 (v1.2?)
2  Sept    2015   SpX CRS-8        Falcon 9

Reposting this from Thread 1 as the current best guesses.

Offline baldusi

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #11 on: 05/12/2015 08:13 pm »
Question: roughly how long from announcement of winning a bid until launch?
Depends on contract. Comm sat is usually 36months if ordering the sat concurrently to the launch, but Falcon 9 can be ordered L-24months. Jason-3 will take 36months from order award. But it includes some 6months of certification lag. Still fast for a NASA mission. DoD is usually 5 years. Might be shorter for things based on comm sat platform (like GPS) or "risky" things like STP missions.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #12 on: 05/13/2015 12:30 am »
Question: roughly how long from announcement of winning a bid until launch?
Depends on contract. Comm sat is usually 36months if ordering the sat concurrently to the launch, but Falcon 9 can be ordered L-24months. Jason-3 will take 36months from order award. But it includes some 6months of certification lag. Still fast for a NASA mission. DoD is usually 5 years. Might be shorter for things based on comm sat platform (like GPS) or "risky" things like STP missions.
Thanks. I ask because the 2017 manifest for SpaceX looks sparse (on Anik's schedule). Sounds like there's still plenty of time for more orders for 2017, at least in theory. (At the same time, a few 2016 launches are likely to slip into 2017, which will help fill it out.)
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Offline laika_fr

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #13 on: 05/13/2015 05:55 pm »
I've heard a " re-fly this year " - hopefully.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102671420
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Offline Jakusb

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #14 on: 05/18/2015 10:25 am »

Quote from: anton_P6
(NET)
19 June   2015   SpX CRS-7        Falcon 9 (v1.1)
15 July    2015   SES-9               Falcon 9 (v1.2)
22 July    2015   Jason 3             Falcon 9 (v1.1 I presume)
Aug-Sept 2015   Orbcomm OG2  Falcon 9 (v1.2?)
2  Sept    2015   SpX CRS-8        Falcon 9

Reposting this from Thread 1 as the current best guesses.

Does anyone have a guesstimate of the vehicle numbers? I believe Jason would be F9-019.

Offline AncientU

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #15 on: 05/18/2015 12:12 pm »
I've heard a " re-fly this year " - hopefully.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102671420

Believe that re-launch will be sub-orbital from SpacePort America and not be manifested.
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Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #16 on: 05/18/2015 02:29 pm »

Quote from: anton_P6
(NET)
19 June   2015   SpX CRS-7        Falcon 9 (v1.1)
15 July    2015   SES-9               Falcon 9 (v1.2)
22 July    2015   Jason 3             Falcon 9 (v1.1 I presume)
Aug-Sept 2015   Orbcomm OG2  Falcon 9 (v1.2?)
2  Sept    2015   SpX CRS-8        Falcon 9

Reposting this from Thread 1 as the current best guesses.

Does anyone have a guesstimate of the vehicle numbers? I believe Jason would be F9-019.

Should be:
CRS-7 F9-020
SES-9 F9-021
Jason 3 F9-019

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #17 on: 05/18/2015 05:32 pm »

Quote from: anton_P6
(NET)
19 June   2015   SpX CRS-7        Falcon 9 (v1.1)
15 July    2015   SES-9               Falcon 9 (v1.2)
22 July    2015   Jason 3             Falcon 9 (v1.1 I presume)
Aug-Sept 2015   Orbcomm OG2  Falcon 9 (v1.2?)
2  Sept    2015   SpX CRS-8        Falcon 9

Reposting this from Thread 1 as the current best guesses.

Does anyone have a guesstimate of the vehicle numbers? I believe Jason would be F9-019.

Should be:
CRS-7 F9-020
SES-9 F9-021
Jason 3 F9-019

Orbcomm OG2 would be scheduled around the CRS-8 2 Sep flight. So either NLT 15 Aug or NET 15 Sep (an 18 day span to allow for a 5 day slip once redy for weather etc and still be able to have 13 days for the CRS-8 processing.) If the payload can't meet the NLT 15 Aug date then it will be after CRS-8.

Since F21 is the first "V1.2" even though SpaceX has said that the new vehicle will not use that nomenclature it is easier to identify the core that way. Jason 3 using F19 will be a V1.1.

Here is the new trailing last 12 months estimate for 2015 with many of the 4Q launches moving into 2016.

« Last Edit: 05/18/2015 05:53 pm by oldAtlas_Eguy »

Offline SVBarnard

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #18 on: 05/20/2015 12:29 am »
Question: roughly how long from announcement of winning a bid until launch?
Depends on contract. Comm sat is usually 36months if ordering the sat concurrently to the launch, but Falcon 9 can be ordered L-24months. Jason-3 will take 36months from order award. But it includes some 6months of certification lag. Still fast for a NASA mission. DoD is usually 5 years. Might be shorter for things based on comm sat platform (like GPS) or "risky" things like STP missions.

5 years for a DoD mission!!!!!

Are you saying SpaceX will be launching a payload for DoD in 2020 at the earliest?

Does ULA also wait 5 long years?

Here i was thinking they'd get certified this year and then soon after that they'd start launching military payloads.

Offline kevin-rf

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #19 on: 05/20/2015 12:48 am »
In a nutshell yes, take a look at the list of NRO launches ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_NRO_Launches yes wiki, I'm being lazy) and notice they don't launch in order with several launching years after the next in the sequence.

Don't remember the story fully, but one of the missions ( USA-179 maybe ??? ) supposedly was started back in the 80's and did not launch until the early 2000's. There was some big discussion about it a while back. 

The DOD can start a satellite and then select the launcher later, but they are usually selected years in advance. Must give ULA major headaches as payloads get delayed and vehicles get shuffled.
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