As I was trying to point out and will try to clear up is that the SLS/Orion program is fairly normal for such complex LV development programs.
Competition.Put heavy lift out to bid... 400tonnes/year to pick-an-orbit, X crew members per year to destination specified... then compare the numbers to the cash currently being spent for much, much less.
Careful. All constellation ended up being was trying to build a crew vehicle to replace ISS crew rotation flights.
That could just as easily be lumped in with commercial crew and here we are...11 years later and still waiting.
And the lack of progress since 2006 could also be an argument for why we shouldn't do the same thing all over again that was done in 2010(reset everything for some other shiny bauble).
Let the record show that the New Space companies, some with federal tax dollars, are continually behind in their development. Falcon 9 is late. Crewed Dragon is Late. DreamChaser is late. The Boeing Capsule is late. New Glenn thinks they are on track for 2020. Vulcan? The Virgin suborbital spaceplane is late.It's still hard. Everything takes longer and is more expensive than you think it will be.
Quote from: mike robel on 11/11/2017 02:41 pmLet the record show that the New Space companies, some with federal tax dollars, are continually behind in their development. Falcon 9 is late. Crewed Dragon is Late. DreamChaser is late. The Boeing Capsule is late. New Glenn thinks they are on track for 2020. Vulcan? The Virgin suborbital spaceplane is late.It's still hard. Everything takes longer and is more expensive than you think it will be.Much less late and orders of magnitude cheaper than goverment endeavours. Time and money mean something in private sector.
Quote from: whatever11235 on 11/11/2017 06:06 pmQuote from: mike robel on 11/11/2017 02:41 pmLet the record show that the New Space companies, some with federal tax dollars, are continually behind in their development. Falcon 9 is late. Crewed Dragon is Late. DreamChaser is late. The Boeing Capsule is late. New Glenn thinks they are on track for 2020. Vulcan? The Virgin suborbital spaceplane is late.It's still hard. Everything takes longer and is more expensive than you think it will be.Much less late and orders of magnitude cheaper than goverment endeavours. Time and money mean something in private sector.Orders of magnitude? So, 100:1. A 3 mT supply run to LEO ordered from the the private sector costs between 130 million and 225 million. It would cost the government between 13 billion and 22.5 billion.
Quote from: ncb1397 on 11/11/2017 08:22 pmQuote from: whatever11235 on 11/11/2017 06:06 pmQuote from: mike robel on 11/11/2017 02:41 pmLet the record show that the New Space companies, some with federal tax dollars, are continually behind in their development. Falcon 9 is late. Crewed Dragon is Late. DreamChaser is late. The Boeing Capsule is late. New Glenn thinks they are on track for 2020. Vulcan? The Virgin suborbital spaceplane is late.It's still hard. Everything takes longer and is more expensive than you think it will be.Much less late and orders of magnitude cheaper than goverment endeavours. Time and money mean something in private sector.Orders of magnitude? So, 100:1. A 3 mT supply run to LEO ordered from the the private sector costs between 130 million and 225 million. It would cost the government between 13 billion and 22.5 billion.That "orders" shoud be "order", typo on my part. You can look at NAFCOM estimates for Falcon 9 and Spacehab logistics module for examples.
Falcon 9 was developed when real estate was dirt cheap and they were competing with Starbucks for college educated labor. I don't think the accounting took into account the current value of the stock options paid. It was a unique situation.
Shuttle cost somewhere like an order of magnitude more per flight than commercial logistics flights using Falcon/Dragon or Antares/Cygnus. The capabilities weren't remotely similar however. I can break out the unpressurized volume/pressurized volume/upmass/downmass if you would like, but it is a pointless exercise.
Much less late and orders of magnitude cheaper than goverment endeavours. Time and money mean something in private sector.
I do think it is important for SLS/Orion to fly before end of 2019. Delays are expected with such a complex program, but anything past June 2020 and they'll get heat from all sides.
Priority should be placed on the core elements with the goal for operational capability for the core elements not later than December 31, 2016.
As to the upthread sarcasm about CC, an excellent case can be made for those like ASAP/others intentionally obfuscating the path for CC, which is already 10x better safety than crew flying on Soyuz, possibly to buy time for the other program.
Quote from: Space Ghost 1962 on 11/12/2017 05:07 pmAs to the upthread sarcasm about CC, an excellent case can be made for those like ASAP/others intentionally obfuscating the path for CC, which is already 10x better safety than crew flying on Soyuz, possibly to buy time for the other program. Emphasis mine.Don't make suggestions like this unless you can prove it. I know ASAP seemingly works double standards but they are not there to benefit one program over another. The key to the observed difference in approach is in how the programs are run.