Poll

Which SHLV will successfully fly its own mission profile first, SLS or SH/SS?

SLS
27 (23.1%)
SH/SS
90 (76.9%)

Total Members Voted: 117

Voting closed: 09/09/2021 05:04 am


Author Topic: Which SHLV Will Successfully Fly First?  (Read 14974 times)

Offline TomH

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Which SHLV Will Successfully Fly First?
« on: 08/10/2021 05:04 am »
It has been one year to the day since the last post was made for this same poll. I am modifying the question from which will reach orbit first to, Which SHLV will be the first to successfully fly its own mission design?

Since SN20/B4 may not be intended to complete a full orbit, this means both stages fly a nominal trajectory, survive reentry, and make a soft water landing at the designated coordinates. If SN20/B4 fails, a successive vehicle can still claim the title if it beats Artemis 1.

For SLS, it means that Artemis 1 completes its mission as planned.

I know there will be apples to oranges complaints. SLS will go farther. SS is refuelable and reusable with greater potential/lower cost. Those factors are not part of the question and discussion of such will be considered off topic. If SLS completes the mission first, it will for a short period hold the title of most powerful rocket to fly successfully, before being replaced by SS. If SS is first, SLS will never hold that record. Which ever flies successfully first will gain a publicity coup.

Feel free to discuss why you think one or the other will complete its mission first, but again, apples to oranges discussion is off topic.

Poll closes in 30 days.
« Last Edit: 08/10/2021 08:53 pm by TomH »

Offline su27k

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Re: Which SHLV Will Successfully Fly First?
« Reply #1 on: 08/10/2021 05:14 am »
The "its own mission design" part is confusing.

Wouldn't a successful Artemis 1 means SLS Block 1 has flown its own mission design?

And there're so many mission designs for Starship (reusable vs expendable, refueling, landing, etc), it's difficult to vote without specifying which one.

Offline laszlo

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Re: Which SHLV Will Successfully Fly First?
« Reply #2 on: 08/10/2021 11:45 am »
The conditions of this poll. as stated in the original post, basically rig it in favor of SS/SH, then make objections off-topic. If this is unintended the conditions should be revised.

Offline rockets4life97

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Re: Which SHLV Will Successfully Fly First?
« Reply #3 on: 08/10/2021 12:06 pm »
Maybe the OP meant Artemis 1 and not Artemis 3?

Offline Fireworking

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Re: Which SHLV Will Successfully Fly First?
« Reply #4 on: 08/10/2021 12:18 pm »
I voted that SLS will do it first, mainly because I'm almost 100% sure that SLS Artemis I will be successful. I think that Starship/Superheavy will fly first, but I don't think that it will be without failure.  :'(

If you mean Artemis III vs. Starship, then I am pretty sure that Starship/Superheavy will be successful first.
rokits

Offline TomH

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Re: Which SHLV Will Successfully Fly First?
« Reply #5 on: 08/10/2021 08:53 pm »
Yes, forgive the brain fart, Artemis 1.

Offline RoadWithoutEnd

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Re: Which SHLV Will Successfully Fly First?
« Reply #6 on: 08/11/2021 09:04 am »
I see very little chance of SLS completing a mission before Starship/Super Heavy.  In fact, I see competitive odds that SpaceX will catch a booster before SLS flies.

Boeing is an outright disaster as an organization, and has had even less incentive to deliver a functioning system to NASA than it's had with the Starliner program.  Its management does not care about Artemis or any other mission, and has zero reason to expect they'll be excluded from future contracts regardless of how badly they perform.  So, while the Green Runs may have retired some risk, I have no doubt they will be discovering numerous other problems over the next year, each one pushing the schedule back by months.

And that's before considering the possibility that the first launch is not successful.  A failed SLS launch would delay the program by at least a year, and quite possibly two.

SpaceX, by contrast, when it finds problems, often chooses solutions that end up clawing the schedule forward on balance.  Strategies such as "best part is no part," and "fly often," that are so alien to Oldspace.  If B4S20 fails, they'll have the next stack ready to fly before most of the wreckage is even cleared.  There are still pieces of SN11 sitting around Starbase.

There's no competition.  Boeing doesn't remember the meaning of the word, and SpaceX has never met any worthy of the term.
Walk the road without end, and all tomorrows unfold like music.

Offline electric

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Re: Which SHLV Will Successfully Fly First?
« Reply #7 on: 08/11/2021 09:59 am »
I think the chances that B4/S20 launches before SLS are quite high, although that depends more on the FAA than on SpaceX. That launch beeing successful however is another story.
Elon himself tweeted that it might take them several attempts to guide a Starship through reentry and reiterated in the recent Tim Dodd interview, that even Booster 4 clearing the tower would be considered a success.
And yes they can build other rockets in basically no time, but building and testing and launch operations on these rockets still add up.

SLS on the other hand, absolutely has to work on it's first mission and even if that gets delayed for some other months I think it will complete Artemis I before the first fully successful flight of SH/SS.

Offline AllenB

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Re: Which SHLV Will Successfully Fly First?
« Reply #8 on: 08/11/2021 06:24 pm »
I'm a SpaceX fan and SLS makes me vaguely ill, but I still voted for SLS. IMHO, the mission is fundamentally easier and I think SLS is up to the task if not hit with further delays, sticking valves, etc.

SpaceX, to fly the mission they've set for themselves, will need an awful lot to go right. I'm expecting a few partial successes prior to bringing both SH and SS back to the water intact and under control. And that's perfectly alright. Working as designed!

Offline rakaydos

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Re: Which SHLV Will Successfully Fly First?
« Reply #9 on: 08/11/2021 10:59 pm »
The answer to the question is Falcon Heavy.

Offline tyrred

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Re: Which SHLV Will Successfully Fly First?
« Reply #10 on: 08/11/2021 11:02 pm »
I love being wrong, and thus SLS  is the clear winner here.

Offline jketch

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Re: Which SHLV Will Successfully Fly First?
« Reply #11 on: 08/12/2021 12:39 am »
I voted SLS largely because I expect permitting delays to hamper the SH/SS launch.

Offline TomH

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Re: Which SHLV Will Successfully Fly First?
« Reply #12 on: 08/12/2021 01:19 am »
Since the goal is to achieve orbit it seems, SS should achieve orbit first, even if the booster and Starship crash on landing.  SLS is expendable, so all it has to do is achieve orbit.  Comparing apples and oranges. 

Just to fly first should be Starship/Superheavy pending permit approvals.

Off topic. Go back and read the OP.

Offline Proponent

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Re: Which SHLV Will Successfully Fly First?
« Reply #13 on: 08/15/2021 01:00 pm »
Recent events within the Commercial Crew program suggest that today's Boeing isn't so good at execution (I'm toning down my phraseology).  My first thought was that this very much bodes ill for the first flight of SLS.  But, SLS is managed as a traditional NASA program, with lots of government oversight, unlike commercial crew, where NASA's approach is more hands-off.  Am I correct in not viewing SLS's likely first launch though the prism of Starliner?

EDIT:  "hand-off" -> "hands-off"
« Last Edit: 08/16/2021 12:27 pm by Proponent »

Online Galactic Penguin SST

Re: Which SHLV Will Successfully Fly First?
« Reply #14 on: 08/15/2021 02:32 pm »
I still think that there will be unforeseen problems during ground testing of the SS/SH stack during the upcoming weeks and months that would ultimately push the first attempt, never mind the first successful attempt to beyond the SLS Artemis 1 flight (of which I’m confident it will fly straight). SpaceX is getting there and I no longer have much doubts that initial orbital flights will occur fairly soon, but that might take a bit longer than planned considering earlier guesses to the testing timeline.

Remember during the SS MK1 days we thought Starship would be flying 10 km altitude hops successfully before the end of 2019? They did get there but it took more than a year more with various problems popping up one after another. Yes the SH booster is somewhat “conventional” in design but there will still be bugs that needs to be handled when you have ~30 engines of a new breed starting at the same time, avionics, flight software, GSE etc. Even ground processing could be a new challenge seeing Boca Chica had seen a Starship accidentally sliding off the stands (SN9) just a few months ago.

They will get there eventually. Maybe even on the first try (re-entry might be the most uncertain part). But with SLS so deep into integrations it will take some big problems to slide it beyond SS/SH, and while we have Boeing projects getting exactly that lately (cough Starliner cough), I have faith in NASA Marshall etc. doing this right on the money by Q1 2022.
Astronomy & spaceflight geek penguin. In a relationship w/ Space Shuttle Discovery. Current Priority: Chasing the Chinese Spaceflight Wonder Egg & A Certain Chinese Mars Rover

Offline envy887

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Re: Which SHLV Will Successfully Fly First?
« Reply #15 on: 08/16/2021 07:09 pm »
For SLS, it means that Artemis 1 completes its mission as planned.

Artemis 1 technically includes everything up to Orion recovery. I presume you only mean the part of the mission through Orion/ICPS separation?

Offline TomH

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Re: Which SHLV Will Successfully Fly First?
« Reply #16 on: 08/20/2021 12:04 am »
For SLS, it means that Artemis 1 completes its mission as planned.

Artemis 1 technically includes everything up to Orion recovery. I presume you only mean the part of the mission through Orion/ICPS separation?

Correct.

Offline c4fusion

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Re: Which SHLV Will Successfully Fly First?
« Reply #17 on: 08/31/2021 06:26 pm »
Quote
NASA’s big rocket misses another deadline, now won’t fly until 2022

https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/08/nasas-sls-rocket-will-not-fly-until-next-spring-or-more-likely-summer/

Whelp, seems like there is now a chance for Starship to land before Artemis 1 if it’s next summer. That barring the environmental review taking longer and not finishing till next year.

Offline jongoff

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Re: Which SHLV Will Successfully Fly First?
« Reply #18 on: 09/01/2021 07:13 pm »
Last time we had a poll like this, I voted for SLS (in spite of my long and well-documented dislike of that rocket). It just seemed like SpaceX had way too many steps to go before it could even attempt an orbital launch, let alone succeed at an orbital launch with splashdown recovery of both stages. I still think they're further out than most, but SLS keeps slipping. This time I voted Starship/Superheavy, but I'd call it almost 50/50 on which will work first. It's kind of pathetic that it's this close though, given NASA's headstart and massive budget for SLS.

~Jon

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: Which SHLV Will Successfully Fly First?
« Reply #19 on: 09/01/2021 08:56 pm »
Last time we had a poll like this, I voted for SLS (in spite of my long and well-documented dislike of that rocket). It just seemed like SpaceX had way too many steps to go before it could even attempt an orbital launch, let alone succeed at an orbital launch with splashdown recovery of both stages. I still think they're further out than most, but SLS keeps slipping. This time I voted Starship/Superheavy, but I'd call it almost 50/50 on which will work first. It's kind of pathetic that it's this close though, given NASA's headstart and massive budget for SLS.

~Jon
Yes every time that Starship continues to be delayed for this and that. Primarily government launch licencing (EA etc) red tape delays. That SLS will launch first. SLS slips a few more months out such that Starship is still in the game to be first. A real not optimistic and not pessimistic date for SLS would be Jan/early Feb.

But if SLS runs into problems and slips a couple more months into May/June. The SRBs having been stacked closeout in Feb/March. It could become a very large slip of >6 months for SLS into fall of 2022 with all the same small process taking longer than expected over optimistic scheduling as current but with likely less small technical issues since they did practically everything once before. Such that actual could be as late as Jan 2023. Then Artemis II since hardware would already be ready for its upcoming launch unless there are significant technical issue to be fixed from the Artemis I flight would launch in Jan 2024 followed by Artemis III sometime in 2025.

NOTE this is worst case for SLS. But Starship has a worst case as well and it is the EA approval. If that falls through then it could be a very long wait to an orbital launch for Starship. Since SpaceX would likely have to make arrangements to launch from a different location such as Phobos or Deimos ocean platforms.
« Last Edit: 09/01/2021 09:31 pm by oldAtlas_Eguy »

 

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