Poll

Which SHLV will successfully fly first?

SLS
65 (33.5%)
Starship/Super Heavy stack
129 (66.5%)

Total Members Voted: 194

Voting closed: 04/23/2020 02:38 am


Author Topic: Which SHLV Will Fly 1st?  (Read 26596 times)

Offline jadebenn

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Re: Which SHLV Will Fly 1st?
« Reply #40 on: 03/06/2020 03:49 pm »
These results are not going to age well.

Even if you assume that the SS/SH full stack takes only as long to develop as Falcon Heavy (which I find to be a very optimistic assumption considering FH was a much simpler project), there's zero chance it would launch before SLS.
« Last Edit: 03/06/2020 03:54 pm by jadebenn »

Online rockets4life97

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Re: Which SHLV Will Fly 1st?
« Reply #41 on: 03/06/2020 04:39 pm »
Even if you assume that the SS/SH full stack takes only as long to develop as Falcon Heavy...

Starship development is occurring very differently than FH development. Maybe go check the Boca Chica threads.

If you need a reminder, FH development co-existed with F9 improvements and reusability development.

Offline jadebenn

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Re: Which SHLV Will Fly 1st?
« Reply #42 on: 03/06/2020 05:58 pm »
Starship development is occurring very differently than FH development. Maybe go check the Boca Chica threads.

If you need a reminder, FH development co-existed with F9 improvements and reusability development.
Falcon Heavy also had the benefit of working from an existing design with existing parts proven and certified to work that were already in production.

Meanwhile, Starship has already slipped multiple times, even in this very early stage of development. We were supposed to see a 20km hop last year, for example.

It's different, alright. But that doesn't mean it'll be faster.
« Last Edit: 03/06/2020 05:59 pm by jadebenn »

Offline spacenut

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Re: Which SHLV Will Fly 1st?
« Reply #43 on: 03/06/2020 06:17 pm »
Second tank is on the way to the pad for testing. 

Offline envy887

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Re: Which SHLV Will Fly 1st?
« Reply #44 on: 03/06/2020 07:12 pm »
These results are not going to age well.

Even if you assume that the SS/SH full stack takes only as long to develop as Falcon Heavy (which I find to be a very optimistic assumption considering FH was a much simpler project), there's zero chance it would launch before SLS.

Some of these comments certainly aren't going to age well. Can't be sure they won't be yours, though... :D
« Last Edit: 03/06/2020 07:15 pm by envy887 »

Offline dglow

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Re: Which SHLV Will Fly 1st?
« Reply #45 on: 03/06/2020 07:32 pm »
Recency bias is such a trap with predictions like this.

I had voted SLS a few weeks back. My thinking: November was the current official EM-1 date, but April was considered reality. I guessed that Superheavy wouldn't be ready by April, and figured surely this will be EM-1's final date slip. Right? Thus SLS.

Then came the NASA comments a few days ago indicating 2H 2021 for EM-1, and my first urge was to change this vote. Oh well.
« Last Edit: 03/07/2020 04:23 pm by dglow »

Offline su27k

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Re: Which SHLV Will Fly 1st?
« Reply #46 on: 03/07/2020 04:08 am »
These results are not going to age well.

Even if you assume that the SS/SH full stack takes only as long to develop as Falcon Heavy (which I find to be a very optimistic assumption considering FH was a much simpler project), there's zero chance it would launch before SLS.

Ok, so you think optimistically speaking SS/SH full stack will take at least 7 years to develop, so the first launch is what, 2025? Just want to be sure so that we can see which result is actually not going to age well.

Online soyuzu

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Re: Which SHLV Will Fly 1st?
« Reply #47 on: 03/07/2020 04:57 am »
These results are not going to age well.

Even if you assume that the SS/SH full stack takes only as long to develop as Falcon Heavy (which I find to be a very optimistic assumption considering FH was a much simpler project), there's zero chance it would launch before SLS.


Quote from: ncb1397
Quote
Compare that to NASA and its Space Launch System, the big rocket that the space agency has been developing for a decade

I don't see much of a difference here. We first started hearing about raptor development in 2013 regarding testing at SSC, 7 years ago. We are going into our fifth annual update somewhere in the ~September time frame.
Link: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=50310.msg2054683#msg2054683

So do you mean you agree that by optimistic assumption Starship will launch this year? Fine.
« Last Edit: 03/07/2020 05:05 am by soyuzu »

Offline jadebenn

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Re: Which SHLV Will Fly 1st?
« Reply #48 on: 03/09/2020 05:03 am »
Ok, so you think optimistically speaking SS/SH full stack will take at least 7 years to develop, so the first launch is what, 2025? Just want to be sure so that we can see which result is actually not going to age well.
A fully-functional cargo Starship that can perform all aspects of the architecture that can successfully land the booster, successfully survive re-entry, and successfully land the Starship itself? 2025 absolutely sounds reasonable for that.

I'm certain they can shoot off a non-functional "Starship I-X" before that if they want, but that would be little more than a PR stunt. Certainly not an operational vehicle.
« Last Edit: 03/09/2020 05:13 am by jadebenn »

Online meberbs

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Re: Which SHLV Will Fly 1st?
« Reply #49 on: 03/09/2020 05:36 am »
Ok, so you think optimistically speaking SS/SH full stack will take at least 7 years to develop, so the first launch is what, 2025? Just want to be sure so that we can see which result is actually not going to age well.
A fully-functional cargo Starship that can perform all aspects of the architecture that can successfully land the booster, successfully survive re-entry, and successfully land the Starship itself? 2025 absolutely sounds reasonable for that.

I'm certain they can shoot off a non-functional "Starship I-X" before that if they want, but that would be little more than a PR stunt. Certainly not an operational vehicle.
I have to ask, have you even looked at any of the Starship update threads? At the rate they are building them they will get a large number of Starships built this year, even if they lose a few, they should have plenty of chances to get it to orbit this year.

Also recovery is not necessary for payload to orbit (or this poll), and Starship would blow many other launchers out of the water for total cost without reuse just due to relatively low cost, high volume production. Booster recovery is just a scaled versio of Falcon 9, and the scaling up actually makes it easier in many ways. Or are you thinking that it would take 5 years to develop a functional fairing? If you were to insist on successful recovery, then SLS simply fails before you begin. Really we are at the point already where any rocket that doesn't have reuse in some form planned is simply a dead end (except maybe smallsat launchers.) Your post here almost sounds like you recognizing this fact that reuse is fundamental to the future of rockets, but based on your other posts, I am guessing this sudden requirement for successful recovery is just grabbing the goal post and running with it as fast as you can to stay ahead of the pace SpaceX is moving at.

Offline su27k

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Re: Which SHLV Will Fly 1st?
« Reply #50 on: 03/09/2020 05:51 am »
Ok, so you think optimistically speaking SS/SH full stack will take at least 7 years to develop, so the first launch is what, 2025? Just want to be sure so that we can see which result is actually not going to age well.
A fully-functional cargo Starship that can perform all aspects of the architecture that can successfully land the booster, successfully survive re-entry, and successfully land the Starship itself? 2025 absolutely sounds reasonable for that.

I'm certain they can shoot off a non-functional "Starship I-X" before that if they want, but that would be little more than a PR stunt. Certainly not an operational vehicle.

You didn't read the rules in the first post? "landing is not a requirement for SS or SH (at least for this poll)."

Also a SS/SH stack without landing is still functional as long as it can put payload into orbit, F9/FH doesn't suddenly become non-functional when it is used in expendable launch or when landing fails.
« Last Edit: 03/09/2020 06:02 am by su27k »

Offline jadebenn

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Re: Which SHLV Will Fly 1st?
« Reply #51 on: 03/09/2020 06:07 pm »
You didn't read the rules in the first post? "landing is not a requirement for SS or SH (at least for this poll)."
Landing or not landing does not change my answer to the question posed by this poll. I believe SLS will still fly before a full stack.

Offline Khadgars

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Re: Which SHLV Will Fly 1st?
« Reply #52 on: 03/09/2020 06:10 pm »
I don't see how anyone can reasonable believe Starship will be ready in the next 12-18 months, let alone integrated with its booster for a test flight.

The exciting thing is, we get to root for both and are better off no matter what the outcome is  ;)

« Last Edit: 03/09/2020 06:13 pm by Khadgars »
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Offline envy887

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Re: Which SHLV Will Fly 1st?
« Reply #53 on: 03/09/2020 06:31 pm »
I don't see how anyone can reasonable believe Starship will be ready in the next 12-18 months, let alone integrated with its booster for a test flight.

The exciting thing is, we get to root for both and are better off no matter what the outcome is  ;)

For what it's worth, it doesn't sound like NASA is all too sure about SLS flying within 18 months either.

Offline su27k

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Re: Which SHLV Will Fly 1st?
« Reply #54 on: 03/10/2020 02:03 am »
You didn't read the rules in the first post? "landing is not a requirement for SS or SH (at least for this poll)."
Landing or not landing does not change my answer to the question posed by this poll. I believe SLS will still fly before a full stack.

That's good to know but we're not asking you to change your answer, you're entitled to pick any answer that fits your beliefs, this discussion started when you question the answers of everyone else.

So, given the poll's rules, do you still think there is zero chance SS/SH would launch before SLS, a full stack SS/SH launch is NET 2025 and everyone who picked Starship in poll is "unreasonable" as Khadgars puts it?

Offline jadebenn

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Re: Which SHLV Will Fly 1st?
« Reply #55 on: 03/10/2020 08:34 am »
So, given the poll's rules, do you still think there is zero chance SS/SH would launch before SLS
No chance is zero, but I do find it so ridiculously unlikely that I'm willing to bet on it, yes.
a full stack SS/SH launch is NET 2025
I'm not married to that particular date, but it's certainly past 2021.
and everyone who picked Starship in poll is "unreasonable" as Khadgars puts it?
That's a value-judgement, and not one I share.

I will say though, that fans of a project are going to be consistently over-optimistic about its timelines. Just look about any of the dozen CCrew flight polls, or, for something closer to home, my speculation on the Artemis 1 launch date from about a year ago.
« Last Edit: 03/10/2020 08:34 am by jadebenn »

Online meberbs

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Re: Which SHLV Will Fly 1st?
« Reply #56 on: 03/10/2020 03:37 pm »
So, given the poll's rules, do you still think there is zero chance SS/SH would launch before SLS
No chance is zero, but I do find it so ridiculously unlikely that I'm willing to bet on it, yes.
a full stack SS/SH launch is NET 2025
I'm not married to that particular date, but it's certainly past 2021.
and everyone who picked Starship in poll is "unreasonable" as Khadgars puts it?
That's a value-judgement, and not one I share.
It is not a value judgement, if you truly believe your statement about it being "ridiculously unlikely" then it is a simple fact from there that around two-thirds of the voters in the poll picked an unreasonable option. (Picking an unreasonable option is the definition of a person being unreasonable.) One of your 2 statements here is false.

I'd offer to bet you on the Starship orbital launch date (small change this year, quite a lot for by the end of 2021) but I know Lar was in the middle of working out a bet with you and I see no need for a duplicate bet. If those bet details don't end up including terms on Starship first orbital launch or a similar equivalent, then I would bet.

Offline Lar

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Re: Which SHLV Will Fly 1st?
« Reply #57 on: 03/10/2020 09:56 pm »
I'd offer to bet you on the Starship orbital launch date (small change this year, quite a lot for by the end of 2021) but I know Lar was in the middle of working out a bet with you and I see no need for a duplicate bet. If those bet details don't end up including terms on Starship first orbital launch or a similar equivalent, then I would bet.
You can have my slot if you want it... I won't be mad. I pointed Jadebenn to the bet thread to let them get some ideas, then got busy so haven't pinged about it.

(and no I don't want to bet about who finalizes a bet first)
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
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Offline jongoff

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Re: Which SHLV Will Fly 1st?
« Reply #58 on: 03/12/2020 07:54 pm »
I voted SLS (even though I'm super pessimistic on SLS and wish it was canceled). I'm hoping I'm wrong, I'm just not very optimistic on how soon SpaceX will really be ready to launch a full Starship/SuperHeavy stack.

~Jon

Offline jadebenn

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Re: Which SHLV Will Fly 1st?
« Reply #59 on: 03/15/2020 05:12 am »
You can have my slot if you want it... I won't be mad. I pointed Jadebenn to the bet thread to let them get some ideas, then got busy so haven't pinged about it.

(and no I don't want to bet about who finalizes a bet first)
Oh yeah. I forgot about that.

Remind me if I haven't PMed you by the end of tomorrow.

Tags: Artemis 1 SLS falcon 
 

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