Author Topic: Starliner on Vulcan  (Read 25108 times)

Offline deadman1204

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Re: Starliner on Vulcan
« Reply #20 on: 05/25/2022 01:42 pm »
Dissimilar LVs isn't critical for private stations, its nice have.


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If the business model for the private station is leasing or renting space to commercial clients then being spacecraft agnostic will be a crucial requirement. If you deny them the use of the most popular and cost effective means of moving cargo and people up and down to try to support a corporately linked favorite solution then it will be a very hard sell.
If they were following purely business reasons, falcon 9 wouldn't have been black balled from anything amazon/blue origin touches.

Offline greybeardengineer

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Re: Starliner on Vulcan
« Reply #21 on: 05/25/2022 02:01 pm »
Dissimilar LVs isn't critical for private stations, its nice have.


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If the business model for the private station is leasing or renting space to commercial clients then being spacecraft agnostic will be a crucial requirement. If you deny them the use of the most popular and cost effective means of moving cargo and people up and down to try to support a corporately linked favorite solution then it will be a very hard sell.
If they were following purely business reasons, falcon 9 wouldn't have been black balled from anything amazon/blue origin touches.

It is one thing to spend more of your own money to accomplish something to thumb your nose at a competitor/personal rival. It is quite another to restrict the options/flexibility and force prospective clients to spend more of their own money because of your personal vendetta and expect them to do expensive long term business with you.

Offline TrevorMonty

Re: Starliner on Vulcan
« Reply #22 on: 05/25/2022 08:54 pm »
Dissimilar LVs isn't critical for private stations, its nice have.


Sent from my SM-A528B using Tapatalk

If the business model for the private station is leasing or renting space to commercial clients then being spacecraft agnostic will be a crucial requirement. If you deny them the use of the most popular and cost effective means of moving cargo and people up and down to try to support a corporately linked favorite solution then it will be a very hard sell.
If they were following purely business reasons, falcon 9 wouldn't have been black balled from anything amazon/blue origin touches.
Orbital reef will support Dragon, just not their preferred crew vehicle for obvious reasons.

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Online DanClemmensen

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Re: Starliner on Vulcan
« Reply #23 on: 05/25/2022 09:21 pm »
Dissimilar LVs isn't critical for private stations, its nice have.


Sent from my SM-A528B using Tapatalk

If the business model for the private station is leasing or renting space to commercial clients then being spacecraft agnostic will be a crucial requirement. If you deny them the use of the most popular and cost effective means of moving cargo and people up and down to try to support a corporately linked favorite solution then it will be a very hard sell.
If they were following purely business reasons, falcon 9 wouldn't have been black balled from anything amazon/blue origin touches.
Orbital reef will support Dragon, just not their preferred crew vehicle for obvious reasons.


The Axiom station and Orbital Reef will both be available at roughly the same time. As a space tourist, why should I fly on a more expensive spacecraft/LV (e.g., Starliner/Vulcan) instead of a less expensive one (Crew Dragon/F9) or an even less expensive Starship? If I am not allowed to use these alternatives to get to Orbital Reef, why would I go there instead of the Axion station?

Offline baldusi

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Re: Starliner on Vulcan
« Reply #24 on: 05/26/2022 01:15 am »
Dissimilar LVs isn't critical for private stations, its nice have.


I don't think that it is optional if you want to host NASA's business. Besides, you don't have the US Gvnt open wallet for a private space station. Having a stand down on your LV means no revenue. And that is a huge cost to a private company. If depending solely on Soyuz taught anything to the ISS, was that they shouldn't. And remember that ISS was also serviced by HTV/H2, ATV/Ariane 5, and later Dragon/F9 and Cygnus/Antares/Atlas V. If you only depend on a single LV, and you have a long stand down, you might lose a whole year of revenue, have to decrew and probably depower most systems. Very, very expensive.

Offline yg1968

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Re: Starliner on Vulcan
« Reply #25 on: 05/26/2022 01:43 pm »
Dissimilar LVs isn't critical for private stations, its nice have.

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It's not a requirement but NASA strongly encourages it per it's RFI:
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=53450.msg2366179#msg2366179
« Last Edit: 05/26/2022 02:04 pm by yg1968 »

Offline deadman1204

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Re: Starliner on Vulcan
« Reply #26 on: 05/26/2022 01:44 pm »
Dissimilar LVs isn't critical for private stations, its nice have.


Sent from my SM-A528B using Tapatalk

If the business model for the private station is leasing or renting space to commercial clients then being spacecraft agnostic will be a crucial requirement. If you deny them the use of the most popular and cost effective means of moving cargo and people up and down to try to support a corporately linked favorite solution then it will be a very hard sell.
If they were following purely business reasons, falcon 9 wouldn't have been black balled from anything amazon/blue origin touches.
Orbital reef will support Dragon, just not their preferred crew vehicle for obvious reasons.


The Axiom station and Orbital Reef will both be available at roughly the same time. As a space tourist, why should I fly on a more expensive spacecraft/LV (e.g., Starliner/Vulcan) instead of a less expensive one (Crew Dragon/F9) or an even less expensive Starship? If I am not allowed to use these alternatives to get to Orbital Reef, why would I go there instead of the Axion station?
Because there won't be enough space for everyone. Axiom will only fit a few people. So if you want to go, the options are wait lots of years on a list or pay much more for orbital reef.

Online DanClemmensen

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Re: Starliner on Vulcan
« Reply #27 on: 05/26/2022 02:24 pm »
The Axiom station and Orbital Reef will both be available at roughly the same time. As a space tourist, why should I fly on a more expensive spacecraft/LV (e.g., Starliner/Vulcan) instead of a less expensive one (Crew Dragon/F9) or an even less expensive Starship? If I am not allowed to use these alternatives to get to Orbital Reef, why would I go there instead of the Axion station?
Because there won't be enough space for everyone. Axiom will only fit a few people. So if you want to go, the options are wait lots of years on a list or pay much more for orbital reef.
:) OK, I'll just go up on a one-week excursion on Starship and not bother with the station.  :)

Offline deadman1204

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Re: Starliner on Vulcan
« Reply #28 on: 05/26/2022 02:52 pm »
The Axiom station and Orbital Reef will both be available at roughly the same time. As a space tourist, why should I fly on a more expensive spacecraft/LV (e.g., Starliner/Vulcan) instead of a less expensive one (Crew Dragon/F9) or an even less expensive Starship? If I am not allowed to use these alternatives to get to Orbital Reef, why would I go there instead of the Axion station?
Because there won't be enough space for everyone. Axiom will only fit a few people. So if you want to go, the options are wait lots of years on a list or pay much more for orbital reef.
:) OK, I'll just go up on a one-week excursion on Starship and not bother with the station.  :)
Something I've heard about starship that makes me wonder - can it dock with everything? Starship is gonna be huge. The stresses on the structure of what it docks with will be larger than that of a smaller craft. So for example, if starship weighs as much as the gateway - maybe it cannot dock. Because the docking system and its structural supports were not designed for something so massive.

Online DanClemmensen

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Re: Starliner on Vulcan
« Reply #29 on: 05/26/2022 03:16 pm »
The Axiom station and Orbital Reef will both be available at roughly the same time. As a space tourist, why should I fly on a more expensive spacecraft/LV (e.g., Starliner/Vulcan) instead of a less expensive one (Crew Dragon/F9) or an even less expensive Starship? If I am not allowed to use these alternatives to get to Orbital Reef, why would I go there instead of the Axion station?
Because there won't be enough space for everyone. Axiom will only fit a few people. So if you want to go, the options are wait lots of years on a list or pay much more for orbital reef.
:) OK, I'll just go up on a one-week excursion on Starship and not bother with the station.  :)
Something I've heard about starship that makes me wonder - can it dock with everything? Starship is gonna be huge. The stresses on the structure of what it docks with will be larger than that of a smaller craft. So for example, if starship weighs as much as the gateway - maybe it cannot dock. Because the docking system and its structural supports were not designed for something so massive.
If Starship cannot directly dock to a station (ISS, Gateway, or other), then a crew taxi craft can be used instead. The taxi can remain with the station. It has thrusters and can undock from the station, traverse 100 meters to the ship, and dock to the ship. In the case of a resupply mission, use a resupply capsule instead. the cargo starhip disgorges a cargo capsule capable of docking. The used cargo capsule undocks from the station. The fresh capsule docks to the station, and the Starship engorges the used one.

But for my tourist trip, why would I want to go to a dinky little station that cannot dock with Starship when I can stay in a nice big Starship?

Offline baldusi

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Re: Starliner on Vulcan
« Reply #30 on: 05/26/2022 05:25 pm »
[...]
The Axiom station and Orbital Reef will both be available at roughly the same time. As a space tourist, why should I fly on a more expensive spacecraft/LV (e.g., Starliner/Vulcan) instead of a less expensive one (Crew Dragon/F9) or an even less expensive Starship? If I am not allowed to use these alternatives to get to Orbital Reef, why would I go there instead of the Axion station?
Because there won't be enough space for everyone. Axiom will only fit a few people. So if you want to go, the options are wait lots of years on a list or pay much more for orbital reef.

Tourist LEO visits are charged per week. With private tourist stations we should expect a lot more private flights. Probably just a couple of permanent crew to work on the sold experiments and the rest tourists that will stay for a couple of weeks. Then some dedicated NASA bunks so they can train their corps in low-g. And a lot of demand from national agencies wanting to send their own astronauts for prestige.

Offline Steven Pietrobon

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Re: Starliner on Vulcan
« Reply #31 on: 05/27/2022 07:33 am »
Something I've heard about starship that makes me wonder - can it dock with everything? Starship is gonna be huge. The stresses on the structure of what it docks with will be larger than that of a smaller craft. So for example, if starship weighs as much as the gateway - maybe it cannot dock. Because the docking system and its structural supports were not designed for something so massive.

The Space Shuttle was about 125 t in LEO and successfully docked with Mir and ISS (with an initial mass of about 30 t). Starship has a similar dry mass (will be a bit heavier with landing propellant and payload), but I don't think there would be any problem docking to either ISS or a smaller space station.

https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/structure/iss_assembly_2a.html
Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design #1:  Engineering is done with numbers.  Analysis without numbers is only an opinion.

Offline Vahe231991

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Re: Starliner on Vulcan
« Reply #32 on: 03/01/2023 01:09 am »
The Axiom station and Orbital Reef will both be available at roughly the same time. As a space tourist, why should I fly on a more expensive spacecraft/LV (e.g., Starliner/Vulcan) instead of a less expensive one (Crew Dragon/F9) or an even less expensive Starship? If I am not allowed to use these alternatives to get to Orbital Reef, why would I go there instead of the Axion station?
Because there won't be enough space for everyone. Axiom will only fit a few people. So if you want to go, the options are wait lots of years on a list or pay much more for orbital reef.
:) OK, I'll just go up on a one-week excursion on Starship and not bother with the station.  :)
Something I've heard about starship that makes me wonder - can it dock with everything? Starship is gonna be huge. The stresses on the structure of what it docks with will be larger than that of a smaller craft. So for example, if starship weighs as much as the gateway - maybe it cannot dock. Because the docking system and its structural supports were not designed for something so massive.
Boeing would be more than happy to end the Starliner program even if all operational manned Starliner flights are completed because each Starliner crewed flight will cost more than a Dragon 2 crewed flight, and the Dream Chaser is being earmarked for intended launches from the Vulcan.

Offline Eric Hedman

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Re: Starliner on Vulcan
« Reply #33 on: 03/01/2023 07:31 am »
The Axiom station and Orbital Reef will both be available at roughly the same time. As a space tourist, why should I fly on a more expensive spacecraft/LV (e.g., Starliner/Vulcan) instead of a less expensive one (Crew Dragon/F9) or an even less expensive Starship? If I am not allowed to use these alternatives to get to Orbital Reef, why would I go there instead of the Axion station?
Because there won't be enough space for everyone. Axiom will only fit a few people. So if you want to go, the options are wait lots of years on a list or pay much more for orbital reef.
:) OK, I'll just go up on a one-week excursion on Starship and not bother with the station.  :)
Something I've heard about starship that makes me wonder - can it dock with everything? Starship is gonna be huge. The stresses on the structure of what it docks with will be larger than that of a smaller craft. So for example, if starship weighs as much as the gateway - maybe it cannot dock. Because the docking system and its structural supports were not designed for something so massive.
Boeing would be more than happy to end the Starliner program even if all operational manned Starliner flights are completed because each Starliner crewed flight will cost more than a Dragon 2 crewed flight, and the Dream Chaser is being earmarked for intended launches from the Vulcan.
If Boeing can charge more than their costs on Starliner and get customers, it doesn't matter what Dragon 2 costs if demand is greater than what Dragon 2 can handle.  And that might be the case a few years down the road.

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Starliner on Vulcan
« Reply #34 on: 03/01/2023 12:10 pm »
From the Starliner press conference a couple of weeks ago it's clear that:

1. Boeing are still actively pursuing launching Starliner on another LV post-Atlas
2. Discussions are taking place with multiple launch providers

For obvious reasons I assume Vulcan and F9 are the most likely options. But as it's likely to be at least a few years before a switch is needed, clearly other LVs like New Glenn are possible too. Also if Starship is successful in the next couple of years, not clear how long SpaceX will commit to F9, which may put Vulcan into prime position.

I still struggle with the business case for Boeing here. I don't think NASA will fund certification for a second LV, so Boeing are going to need a significant manifest to justify the investment. But I don't see where that manifest is going to come from, particularly as there isn't currently a LV deal they can sell!

It was mentioned that Boeing intends to certify Starliner for missions after PCM-6 (i.e., the Commercial LEO Destinations program). They said that they are working with NASA on this.

Quote from: Marcia Smith
Nappi - we're talking with several launch providers for what to do after PCM-6 when Atlas V no longer available.

This question was at 40 minutes of the archived teleconference linked above.

https://twitter.com/SpcPlcyOnline/status/1626623559517732870

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Starliner on Vulcan
« Reply #35 on: 03/01/2023 01:09 pm »
In Boeingís defense, land recovery of a capsule should mean less refurb than sea recovery, plus I think itís easier for Boeing to fit 5 or even 7 people in Starliner than it would be to refit Dragon to do a full 7 people. On the other side of this, Starliner needs a full new service module each flight whereas dragon recovers most of the service module type stuff. Starliner could probably extend the delta-v of its service module easier than Dragon could, ie for lunar flights.

Which is to say that in principle, Starliner is very competitive to Dragon for LEO space station crew transfer and even for cislunar crew (as, like Dragon, it uses an ablative heatshield that could, in a straightforward way, be upgraded for lunar).

I also think that even with Starship, SpaceX will not be giving flights away for free (I think people would be surprised at how much theyíre hoping to charge for 12 crew LEO flights of Starship). If Boeing did a super good job of executing on Starliner from here on out, they have a decent chance of getting flights to LEO space stations and possibly a deep space (ie to Gateway) follow on of commercial crew to replace Orion.

I think Starliner can DEFINITELY be competitive with Orion.

So Starliner is potentially pretty competitive, if they execute right (which isnít at all a guarantee, given Starlinerís history, but itís also not impossible. Itís up to Boeing.). At least until someone makes something else to compete with Starship, which is probably at least a decade away.
« Last Edit: 03/01/2023 01:14 pm by Robotbeat »
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Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Starliner on Vulcan
« Reply #36 on: 03/01/2023 01:16 pm »
7 seats on Starliner, even if it uses F9, could be cheaper per seat than Dragon. And possibly even the price per seat SpaceX hopes to charge for 12 crew Starship LEO flights.

Note that Firefly Beta is close to the Atlas V N22ís performance (as would be the new version of Antares that is based on BetaÖ except for Antaresí solid upper stage which is a poor fit for a crewed launcher). Neutron is equivalent or higher. Terran-R is much higher. New Glenn is much, much higher. Vulcan could do it easily and Vulcan Heavy (which is the name of the tricore variant) should be able to push Starliner through TLI (I guesstimate Vulcan Heavyís TLI performance at roughly 18 tonnes, since itís GTO performance is 50,000 pounds).
« Last Edit: 03/01/2023 01:33 pm by Robotbeat »
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline TrevorMonty

Re: Starliner on Vulcan
« Reply #37 on: 03/01/2023 03:02 pm »
A few years ago I listen to podcast interview with Starliner lead engineer. The question of using Starliner as Orion replacement came up.  Starliner was designed solely for LEO, modification for BLEO isn't possible.

 The changes required mean may as well start from  scratch. For start need to switch from pusher to puller LAS as extra mass in capsule would be considerable. Also allows for larger service module which isn't mass restricted.
« Last Edit: 03/01/2023 03:03 pm by TrevorMonty »

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Starliner on Vulcan
« Reply #38 on: 03/01/2023 08:10 pm »
A few years ago I listen to podcast interview with Starliner lead engineer. The question of using Starliner as Orion replacement came up.  Starliner was designed solely for LEO, modification for BLEO isn't possible.

 Ö
Thatís not what Boeing has been saying recently, and frankly I donít trust the guy to have been given permission by Boeing to point out the fact that Starliner/Vulcan actually yes COULD do the job of Orion/SLS, as that wouldíve put the much larger SLS/EUS contracts at risk. BLEO Starliner was only something Boeing very recently as started hinting about.

(And switch to different abort mode not required if you increase the abort engine thrustÖ plus other options like using an auxiliary service module that is co-launched on the Vulcan Heavy that the Starliner turns around and docks to after reaching TLI, ala Apollo CM and LM.)
« Last Edit: 03/01/2023 08:12 pm by Robotbeat »
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Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Starliner on Vulcan
« Reply #39 on: 03/01/2023 08:34 pm »
Hereís a paper by some Boeing people that discuss some of the changes needed to make a BLEO Starliner/CST-100.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/364055298_Mars_2033_Human_Flyby_Mission

Case 2 is the main scenario using CST-100 (without a separate capsule). They mention that the heatshield is about 600kg for LEO but could be doubled to allow Orion-like performance (and possibly even higher performance, allowing them to delete the DSB Stage burn immediately before Earth Reentry). They mention CST-100 in several of the other scenarios, so they certainly *donít* think a BLEO variant of CST-100 isnít possible.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

 

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