Author Topic: SpaceX F9 : BlueBird Block 2 FM 2 : CCSFS SLC-40 : NET January 2026  (Read 37341 times)

Offline AndrewM

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AST SpaceMobile has contracted SpaceX for 2 Falcon 9 missions carrying 4 satellites each. These 2 missions are the 2nd and 3rd in the deployment sequence of Block 2 following the LVM3 launch with Block 2 FM1 currently targeting August 2025. This thread is for the first of the 2 missions. Launch 1 has been reduced to 1 satellite (FM2/BlueBird 7).

Launch NET September 2025 from Florida aboard booster B10??-?. The recovery method is unknown at this time.

Initial announcement of the Block 2 launch contracts on November 14.

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MIDLAND, Texas--(BUSINESS WIRE)--AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (“AST SpaceMobile”) (NASDAQ: ASTS), the company building the first and only space-based cellular broadband network accessible directly by everyday smartphones, and designed for both commercial and government applications, today announced launch services agreements securing the orbital launch capacity to enable continuous space-based cellular broadband service coverage across some of the most in-demand cellular markets globally. AST SpaceMobile's global service will initially target key markets such as the United States, Europe, Japan, the U.S. Government and other strategic markets. The Cape Canaveral Florida Space Force Station launch campaign, scheduled during 2025 and 2026, will utilize existing launch vehicles and Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket for up to ~60 Block 2 satellites to low Earth orbit.

Confirmation that Falcon 9 is one of the "existing launch vehicles" and that they are launches 2 & 3 came during the 2024 Q3 earnings call on November 15th.

https://twitter.com/GewoonLukas_/status/1857320982345560338

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During their quarterly earning's call, AST's CEO said that the 1st BlueBird Block 2 satellite will be launched by ISRO's GSLV rocket, followed by 2 Falcon 9 launches with 4 satellites each. The remaining satellites would then be launched by Blue Origin. https://spacenews.com/ast-spacemobile-leans-on-blue-origin-to-ramp-up-satellite-launches/
« Last Edit: 12/30/2025 09:04 pm by zubenelgenubi »

Offline AndrewM

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As of March, the 1st New Glenn flight with AST satellites was targeting late 2025. Coupled with the LVM3 launch NET August and the target of ~45 days between launches, this mission should be in September or early October.

AST SpaceMobile during their conference call last night stated that starting late 2025 they hope to launch with New Glenn every 45 days. Appears they are planning on 1-2 NG launches later this year and then 8-10 in 2026.

"With the New Glenn, we can launch up to eight satellites per launch, that pretty much double the cadence of what is possible with the Falcon 9 and we expect later in the year to start moving to a launch cadence of around one launch every 45 days on the New Glenn. We have other launches also that have been secured in advance to that."

Offline AndrewM

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1st satellite is now shipping to India in August which would probably put launch in late August or September. Follow-on launches aim to occur every 1-2 months which likely will push this to Q4.

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We expect to ship the first next-generation Block 2 BB satellite to the launch provider in August 2025 and commence our launch campaign shortly thereafter of over 60 Block 2 BB satellites in 2025 through 2026 at a cadence of one launch approximately every one to two months on average.

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We have placed orders for procurement of substantially all materials and components needed, in accordance with our production plan, for the assembly, integration and testing of the next 20 Block 2 BB satellites. In addition, subject to our ability to raise additional capital, we plan to continue to accelerate the procurement of components and materials needed for us to complete fully assembled microns and phased array for 53 Block 2 BB satellites and complete 40 fully integrated and assembled Block 2 BB satellites. Our manufacturing, assembly, and testing strategy for Block 2 BB satellites includes continuous production and assembly of various components and sub systems for economies of scale, cost efficiencies, and unlocking capacity constraints, to build sufficient quantity of components and sub systems readily available on hand to be able to complete the final integration and testing of the required number of Block 2 BB satellites closer to the planned launch timelines. As of the date of this prospectus supplement, we have completed production of various components and sub systems and have completed assembly of microns for multiple Block 2 BB satellites. We will continue with manufacturing, assembly, integration and testing of the Block 2 BB satellites at our current capacity and once we complete our planned investments to increase the capacity to assemble, integrate, and test up to six Block 2 BB satellites per month in 2025, we plan to accelerate the manufacturing, assembly, integration and testing of the Block 2 BB satellites to meet our planned launches in 2025 and 2026.

AST 424B5 FCC Filing [July 28]

Offline AndrewM

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The LVM3 launch is NET Q4 which puts this launch as NET Q4 as well.

Launch is scheduled 3-4 months from now according to ISRO's Chairman. Satellite will ship to India next month:

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After NISAR, ISRO gearing up for next U.S. collaboration with BlueBird communications satellite launch
August 01, 2025

The Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) is hoping to launch the Block 2 BlueBird communications satellite, developed by the U.S.-based AST SpaceMobile, in three to four months from now, chairman of the space agency V. Narayanan said in Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala, on Friday (August 1, 2025).

[...]

The BlueBird satellite is expected to arrive in India in September, he said. Work is also progressing on the mission launch vehicle.

[...]


During the 2Q ER on 8/11/25 the CEO Abel mentioned launches on average of 6 or 8 satellites, did not mention the 3 or 4 like before for a single F9. Could they have switched to Falcon Heavy with extended faring to fit 6?

Offline StraumliBlight

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During the 2Q ER on 8/11/25 the CEO Abel mentioned launches on average of 6 or 8 satellites, did not mention the 3 or 4 like before for a single F9. Could they have switched to Falcon Heavy with extended faring to fit 6?

More likely a reference to AST launching with Blue Origin. Each BlueBird Block 2 satellite is ~6 tons and New Glenn can launch ~45 tons to LEO.

Online sstli2

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During the 2Q ER on 8/11/25 the CEO Abel mentioned launches on average of 6 or 8 satellites, did not mention the 3 or 4 like before for a single F9. Could they have switched to Falcon Heavy with extended faring to fit 6?

Per my post on the AST SpaceMobile thread, this was one of several instances on the earnings call where Abel used misleading language to inflate current or expected future progress:

Tim Farrar poking some pretty major holes in AST's earnings call: https://bsky.app/profile/tmfassociates.bsky.social/post/3lw6l7kw35s2f

Offline AndrewM

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AST is aiming for the satellites for launch 2 to be ready to ship in September per their Q2 2025 Business Update. Launch should be ~1-2 months after they ship & with a launch cadence of 1 every month this should be NET November if there are no other snags and FM1 launches in October.

Offline AndrewM

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With CMS-02 (GSAT-7R) being the next launch off of SLP that pushes BlueBird Block 2 FM1 to at least late October and therefore this launch to at least late November.

Online GewoonLukas_

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BlueBird 6 has completed final assembly and testing and is ready for flight! 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 On October 12, it will head to India aboard an Antonov large cargo plane ✈️

We are officially kicking off our next-gen launch campaign:
• BlueBird 7 is expected to ship to the Cape Canaveral launch site in October
• BlueBirds 8-16 are in various stages of production, with launches planned every 1-2 months on average during 2025 and 2026
• On track to complete 40 phased arrays by early 2026, bringing us to BlueBird 46
• Expecting 45-60 satellites in orbit by year-end 2026

[...]

https://twitter.com/AST_SpaceMobile/status/1973140310478688452
Lukas C. H. • May the force be with you my friend, Ad Astra Per Aspera ✨️

So can we be sure they will only launch FM2 on this F9?

Offline AndrewM

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Re: SpaceX F9 : BlueBird Block 2 FM 2 : Florida : NET Q4 2025
« Reply #11 on: 10/21/2025 12:58 am »
With CMS-02 (GSAT-7R) being the next launch off of SLP that pushes BlueBird Block 2 FM1 to at least late October and therefore this launch to at least late November.

CMS-02 is now NET November 5th so BlueBird Block 2 FM1 would be late November at the earliest but more likely December. With the target launch cadence, it looks like this mission is now NET late December/January.

Offline AndrewM

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Re: SpaceX F9 : BlueBird Block 2 FM 2 : Florida : NET Q1 2026
« Reply #12 on: 10/27/2025 11:22 pm »
The launch of FM1 is now targeting the 1st week of December which pushes this to NET 1st week of January 2026.

Targeting first week of December per ISRO officials:

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LVM-3 to launch CMS-03 on November 2; Nisar to begin operations soon
Oct 23, 2025

[...]

Following the launch of CMS-03, Isro will carry out another LVM-3 mission which will launch US private communication satellite Bluebird. “We are looking at first week of December,” Narayanan told TOI in a separate interview.

[...]

NOTAM has also been updated to November 2nd:

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A3247/25 NOTAMN
Q) VOMF/QWMLW/IV/BO/W/000/999/
A) VOMF PART 1 OF 2 B) 2511021130 C) 2511201530
D) 1130-1530
E) LVM3-M5 ROCKET LAUNCH FM SHAR RANGE, SRIHARIKOTA WILL TAKE
PLACE AS PER FLW DETAILS.THE LAUNCH WILL BE ON ANY ONE OF
THE DAY DRG THIS PERIOD.ACTUAL DATE OF LAUNCH WILL BE
INTIMATED 24 HR IN ADVANCE THRU A SEPARATE NOTAM.
LAUNCH PAD COORD: 134312N 0801348E
NO FLT IS PERMITTED OVER THE DNG ZONES.
[...]

AST did say on 9/30 that FM2/BB7 would ship to Cape Canaveral Launch Site in October. If they stick with that guidance as SpaceX receives payloads ~30-22 days before launch would out this launch 1st week of December followed by the ISRO FM1/BB6 in 2-3rd week of December.

AST did say on 9/30 that FM2/BB7 would ship to Cape Canaveral Launch Site in October. If they stick with that guidance as SpaceX receives payloads ~30-22 days before launch would out this launch 1st week of December followed by the ISRO FM1/BB6 in 2-3rd week of December.
But October is almost over and ASTS has not announced any news about the upcoming shipment of FM2. In fact, ASTS has not released any news about the arrival of FM1 in India, although we have confirmed this fact.

Offline StraumliBlight

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Re: SpaceX F9 : BlueBird Block 2 FM 2 : Florida : NET Q1 2026
« Reply #15 on: 10/28/2025 11:14 pm »
But October is almost over and ASTS has not announced any news about the upcoming shipment of FM2. In fact, ASTS has not released any news about the arrival of FM1 in India, although we have confirmed this fact.

The next FM2 update will likely be the Q3 2025 Earnings Presentation on November 10th.

In addition, does ASTS plan to use airplanes to deliver satellites to Florida or by road?

Offline AndrewM

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Re: SpaceX F9 : BlueBird Block 2 FM 2 : Florida : NET Q1 2026
« Reply #17 on: 11/05/2025 02:12 am »
AST did say on 9/30 that FM2/BB7 would ship to Cape Canaveral Launch Site in October. If they stick with that guidance as SpaceX receives payloads ~30-22 days before launch would out this launch 1st week of December followed by the ISRO FM1/BB6 in 2-3rd week of December.

AST has previously stated (and keeps reiterating) they plan 1 launch every 1-2 months.

In addition, does ASTS plan to use airplanes to deliver satellites to Florida or by road?

I would expect by road for Florida since they are coming from TX.

Offline StraumliBlight

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Re: SpaceX F9 : BlueBird Block 2 FM 2 : Florida : NET Q1 2026
« Reply #18 on: 11/10/2025 09:09 pm »
AST Q3 2025 Earnings Presentation [Nov 10]

Quote
BlueBird 7 expected to ship to Cape Canaveral in November with orbital launch anticipated shortly thereafter.

Offline raptorx2

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Re: SpaceX F9 : BlueBird Block 2 FM 2 : Florida : NET Q1 2026
« Reply #19 on: 11/18/2025 12:36 am »
Payload processing comms testing inside the Payload Processing facility for BlueBird 2 satellites expires Feb. 1 2026
https://apps.fcc.gov/els/GetAtt.html?id=379553&x=.

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