Author Topic: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread  (Read 561748 times)

Offline zubenelgenubi

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1360 on: 11/26/2024 05:15 pm »
Two FYI tweets from TS Kelso:

https://twitter.com/TSKelso/status/1860807115180573069
Quote
To make it easier for users to track when @Starlink launches are supposed to occur, I have exposed the .ics files I use to set calendar reminders. These are simple text files following the IETF standard (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ICalendar for lots more information). They should load automatically into your calendar software. You can edit the launch time (UTC) to adjust for launch delays. And there is a link for where the @SpaceX launch information should be. I hope you find this useful.

https://twitter.com/TSKelso/status/1861521504518967692
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1/CelesTrak continues to see increases in malicious activity and excessive downloads, which require us to continue to adapt our system. That means users should be prepared for changes, particularly if they are using outdated requests. The best way to do that is to check for HTTP 301 errors (permanent redirects) and update your software. If you are using .com or static TLE .txt files, you need to switch to .org and the GP queries available for the past 4+ years. Eventually, we will have to do that for you and if your software can't follow the redirect, it will fail.
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Lots of time has been spent developing documentation to help users. For GP data: https://celestrak.org/NORAD/documentation/gp-data-formats.php. For SupGP data: https://celestrak.org/NORAD/documentation/sup-gp-queries.php. For SATCAT data: https://celestrak.org/satcat/satcat-format.php. For SOCRATES data: https://celestrak.org/SOCRATES/socrates-format.php.

Expect EOP,  Space Weather, and GPS documentation to be updated soon, to stop users from downloading data hundreds of times more often than they are updated.

We appreciate your understanding and support in helping us continue to provide reliable services!
« Last Edit: 11/26/2024 09:00 pm by zubenelgenubi »
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Offline zubenelgenubi

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1361 on: 11/29/2024 09:19 pm »
https://twitter.com/TSKelso/status/1862584343685996681
Quote
I've added links to the official @SpaceX Launches web page to make it easy to find the livestream and information on launch slips, assuming the page is available.
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Offline AC in NC

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1362 on: 11/30/2024 03:19 pm »
Consider a Yellow/Orange "Anomaly Indicator" for the Booster in:  "L/X OFT-6" ?

Offline zubenelgenubi

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1363 on: 11/30/2024 04:47 pm »
Near-term not-Starlink launch schedule; also noting LC-39A use; UTC:

✅️ SXM-9 (Dec 5, LC-39A)

✅️ GPS III-7 (Dec 17 NET mid? Dec 14, SLC-40)

✅️ NROL-149 (Dec 17 NET mid? Dec 16, SLC-4E)

✅️ O3b mPOWER 7/8 (Dec 17 NET 12 12 13 15, LC-39A)

✅️ Bandwagon-2 (Dec 21 NET 29 20, SLC-4E)

✅️ Starlink 12-2 (Dec 23 21, LC-39A)

✅️ Astranis Block 2 (Dec 29 NET 16 17 18 21, SLC-40 or LC-39A)

✅️ Starlink 12-6 (Dec 31 29 30, LC-39A)

<Blue Ghost/Hakuto-R launch campaign at LC-39A begins?>

Thuraya 4-NGS (Jan 2 NET Dec 19 18 21 27, SLC-40 or SLC-40 LC-39A)

Transporter-12 (NET Jan 15, SLC-4E)

Blue Ghost Mission 1 + Hakuto-R Mission 2 Resilience (mid Jan, LC-39A)

Spainsat NG-I (Jan 28 end of Jan/beginning of Feb, LC-39A or SLC-40)

PRIME (IM-2) (Feb 27, LC-39A)

Cargo Dragon SpX-32 (late Feb/early Mar?, LC-39A or SLC-40)

Fram2 (NET Mar, LC-39A or SLC-40)

Crew-10 (Mar 25 NET mid-Feb, LC-39A or SLC-40)

Bandwagon-3 (NET Apr?, LC-39A or SLC-40)

Axiom-4 (NET late Apr, LC-39A or SLC-40)

Worldview Legion 5/6 (early 2025, LC-39A or SLC-40)

Nusantara 5 (Lima) (2025 Dec?, LC-39A or SLC-40)

Updated through December
« Last Edit: 01/30/2025 10:15 am by zubenelgenubi »
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Offline zubenelgenubi

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1364 on: 12/01/2024 03:10 am »
Cross-post:
The NGA Space Debris notice that is effectively a Rocket Launching notice has not arrived yet, but I received these two NGA Space Debris notices (the same notice for two different Navigational Areas).

These run a couple of days longer than the launch period, but not long enough to be multi-launch.
Edit: Actually if this mission and 11-2 both launch at/near the beginning of their launch periods, these notices would cover both.

The prior multi-launch Space Debris notices were cancelled after 9-13 launched. They only ran through December 5 so they would have needed to be replaced anyway.

This may be a clue that there are not any Vandenberg Starlink launches in the immediate future following 11-2.

We know there is a sixth SDA launch, NROL-149, most likely scheduled in December.  There are two more that we know the NRO launch numbers.

Bandwagon-2 is scheduled NET December 29.
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Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1365 on: 12/01/2024 02:24 pm »
This may be a clue that there are not any Vandenberg Starlink launches in the immediate future following 11-2.

That last one was basically a Starlink rideshare flight.

Offline zubenelgenubi

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1366 on: 12/02/2024 12:23 am »
This may be a clue that there are not any Vandenberg Starlink launches in the immediate future following 11-2.
That last one was basically a Starlink rideshare flight.
Basically, another Group 2 launch to 70.0 deg orbital inclination, but the Starlinks are V2 Mini's instead of v1.5.

I wonder if we'll see any more V2 Mini launches to 70.0 deg LEO?
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Online StraumliBlight

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1367 on: 12/10/2024 06:42 pm »
Is "RRT-1" a new mission in the launch manifest? (2196-EX-ST-2024)

Quote
This STA is intended to cover pre-launch testing on the RRT-1 mission. Tests involve fairing re-rad operations at Pad 40 at Cape Canaveral AFS or Pad 39A at Kennedy Space Center. This STA is not for flight.

Pre-launch checkout of TTC links for commercial payload mission, including operation of the fairing re-rad system, prior to flight.

RRT-1 launch now appears on the Air Traffic page.

Quote
Primary Launch Day 13 Dec 2330Z-0330Z
Backup Launch Day (1) 14 Dec 2330Z-0330Z
Backup Launch Day (2) 15 Dec 2330Z-0330Z
Backup Launch Day (3) 16 Dec 2330Z-0330Z
Backup Launch Day (4) 17 Dec 2330Z-0330Z
Backup Launch Day (5) 18 Dec 2330Z-0330Z
Backup Launch Day (6) 19 Dec 2330Z-0330Z

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1368 on: 12/11/2024 12:09 am »
Is "RRT-1" a new mission in the launch manifest? (2196-EX-ST-2024)

Quote
This STA is intended to cover pre-launch testing on the RRT-1 mission. Tests involve fairing re-rad operations at Pad 40 at Cape Canaveral AFS or Pad 39A at Kennedy Space Center. This STA is not for flight.

Pre-launch checkout of TTC links for commercial payload mission, including operation of the fairing re-rad system, prior to flight.

RRT-1 launch now appears on the Air Traffic page.

Quote
Primary Launch Day 13 Dec 2330Z-0330Z
Backup Launch Day (1) 14 Dec 2330Z-0330Z
Backup Launch Day (2) 15 Dec 2330Z-0330Z
Backup Launch Day (3) 16 Dec 2330Z-0330Z
Backup Launch Day (4) 17 Dec 2330Z-0330Z
Backup Launch Day (5) 18 Dec 2330Z-0330Z
Backup Launch Day (6) 19 Dec 2330Z-0330Z

So it's just the GPS mission? It has the same launch time.

Offline zubenelgenubi

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1369 on: 12/30/2024 04:53 pm »
Near-term not-Starlink launch schedule; also noting LC-39A use; UTC:

✅️ Thuraya 4-NGS (Jan 4 2, SLC-40)

✅️ Starlink 12-11 (Jan 8 6 7, LC-39A)

✅️ NROL-153 (Jan 10 2025, SLC-4E)

✅️ Transporter-12 (Jan 14 15, SLC-4E)

✅️ Blue Ghost Mission 1 + Hakuto-R Mission 2 Resilience (Jan 15 mid, LC-39A)

✅️ Starlink 13-1 (Jan 21, LC-39A)

✅️ Spainsat NG-I (Jan 30 28 29, LC-39A LC-39A or SLC-40)

WorldView Legion Flight 3 (Feb 3 early 2025 early Feb, LC-39A or SLC-40)

IM-2 (Nova-C) (Feb 27 late Feb 26, LC-39A)

SPHEREx + PUNCH (x4) (Feb 28 late Feb NET 20 NET 27, SLC-4E)

Cargo Dragon SpX-32 (late Feb/early Mar?, LC-39A or SLC-40)

NROL-192 (NET Feb NET Jan, SLC-4E)

Transporter-13 (NET Mar 1, SLC-4E)

Fram2 (NET Mar, LC-39A)

Crew-10 (Mar 25?, LC-39A or SLC-40)

TRACERS rideshare (NET Apr 13, SLC-4E)

Bandwagon-3 (Apr 20? NET Apr?, LC-39A or SLC-40)

Axiom-4 (NET spring late Apr NET Q3, LC-39A or SLC-40)


Updated through January
« Last Edit: 01/31/2025 08:35 pm by zubenelgenubi »
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Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1370 on: 01/09/2025 02:39 pm »
Did we have anything about a rideshare to 53.5 deg in Q4 already?  I'm losing track.

Offline Comga

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1371 on: 01/09/2025 03:46 pm »
At this time (2025-01-09 16:00 UTC) SpaceXNow shows seven upcoming launches with launch dates and times:
NROL-153
Starlink 12-12
Starlink 12-4
Starship Flight 7
Transporter 12
Blue Ghost 1 & Hakuto-R 2 and
Starlink 11-8

This is the first time I have seen more than 5.
(NET launch dates are excluded, as are far future launches constrained by orbital mechanics.)
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1372 on: 01/12/2025 10:56 pm »
Haven't gotten around to adding these to the various threads yet.  Not sure what that flight with Umbra-14 is.
« Last Edit: 01/12/2025 11:04 pm by gongora »

Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1373 on: 01/18/2025 07:19 pm »
Haven't gotten around to adding these to the various threads yet.  Not sure what that flight with Umbra-14 is.

Replaced with new filing, not sure what changed.
SAT-LOA-20250117-00019

Online StraumliBlight

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1374 on: 01/18/2025 07:52 pm »
Haven't gotten around to adding these to the various threads yet.  Not sure what that flight with Umbra-14 is.

Replaced with new filing, not sure what changed.
SAT-LOA-20250117-00019

It was discussed here. Exhibit A shows UMBRA-14's inclination and launch date matches CHORUS (which is also launching radarsats). GewoonLukas_ pointed out that the mission is now delayed to mid 2026 though.

Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1375 on: 01/18/2025 08:04 pm »
The filing you linked was withdrawn and replaced with the one I just posted.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1376 on: 01/28/2025 11:25 pm »
SpaceNews: Space Force projects ULA to outpace SpaceX in 2025 national security missions [Jan 28]

Quote
The forecast also includes seven missions on SpaceX’s Falcon rockets, Brig. Gen. Kristin Panzenhagen, head of the Space Force’s Assured Access to Space office, told reporters at the Space Mobility Conference.

Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1377 on: 01/28/2025 11:50 pm »
Aside from whatever you think ULA's real flight rate will be, adding in the NRO Starshield flights should push SpaceX's national security total well above 11 anyway.  I wonder what seven flights they're thinking will launch on SpaceX this year (how many Tranche 1 will actually be ready?).

Offline Comga

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1378 on: 01/29/2025 03:45 am »
SpaceNews: Space Force projects ULA to outpace SpaceX in 2025 national security missions [Jan 28]
Quote
The forecast also includes seven missions on SpaceX’s Falcon rockets, Brig. Gen. Kristin Panzenhagen, head of the Space Force’s Assured Access to Space office, told reporters at the Space Mobility Conference.

But..
Quote
Col. Jim Horne, who oversees launch execution for the Space Force, .... added that Vulcan’s first NSSL mission could occur as early as this spring.
"as early as spring" is March 21 to June 21,
To get the planned 12 launches on Vulcan on 2025 Vulcan would have to launch every 2.5 to 3.7 weeks at most for the rest of the year.
And it's still only "could occur".  Starting later would further increase the required launch cadence.
These rates seem highly unlikely, and outside of any historical record.
The question for this thread is how many of these 12 launches can wait for Vulcan to catch up, and how many will need to be moved to Falcon for timely launch.
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline zubenelgenubi

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1379 on: 01/30/2025 11:03 am »
Near-term not-Starlink launch schedule; also noting LC-39A use; UTC:

✅️ WorldView Legion Flight 3 (Feb 4 3, LC-39A)

✅️ IM-2 (Nova-C) (Feb 27, LC-39A)

SPHEREx + PUNCH (x4) (Mar 9 Feb 28 1 3 5 7 8, SLC-4E)

Transporter-13 (Mar 12 1 3 4 6 9 10, SLC-4E)

Crew-10 (NET Mar 12 25, LC-39A or SLC-40)

Fram2 (NET (late?) Mar, LC-39A)

NROL-57 (NET Mar Feb 17, SLC-4E)

NROL-192 (NET Mar Feb, SLC-4E)

Bandwagon-3 (Apr 20?, LC-39A or SLC-40)

Cargo Dragon SpX-32 (Apr 21 late Feb?/ /early Mar?, LC-39A or SLC-40)

SDA T1TL-B (NET Apr, SLC-4E)

TRACERS rideshare (NET May 11 NET Apr 13, LC-39A or SLC-40)

Axiom-4 (NET (later in) spring, LC-39A or SLC-40)


Updated through February and early March
« Last Edit: 03/08/2025 08:03 pm by zubenelgenubi »
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