Author Topic: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread  (Read 454520 times)

Offline Comga

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #740 on: 08/12/2022 04:08 pm »
On the manifest list, Vandenberg launches to shell 3 of 46 sats are listed at ~16k same as for 53 sat launches. That surely cannot be correct.

Even a lot of the shell 4 flights need the mass adjusted down, I'll do it sometime

Hey man, I just appreciate all the work done on the manifest thread.  It's one of my top morning go-to items.

Especially with this launch cadence, there's no idea what might pop up.

I will “second” that appreciation for all the work that goes into the SpaceX Manifest thread. IMO it’s a terrific format to keep the current manifest in the updated first post. It’s nice and compact, “information dense”. I wish others, like the Rocketlab schedule, did the same.

One almost obligatory comment:
The Orbit entry for KPLO/Danuri is a question mark.
Note that its destination already has a Three Letter Acronym: BLT - Ballistic Lunar Trajectory IIRC
(We could have a link that directs anyone who thinks that stands for “Bacon, Lettuce, & Tomato “ out of NSF to a cooking forum.)
Ditto for HALO/PPE

Thanks again
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline zubenelgenubi

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #741 on: 08/16/2022 07:53 pm »
Will there be another Starlink Group 3 launch from Vandenberg between Starlink 3-4 (late August) and the SDA launch (NET September 29)?

I suggest that at least one more Florida September Starlink Group 4 launch will be announced as well.  (2 more!)

September Falcon 9 launches:
4th early, SLC-40: Starlink 4-20
NET 7th, LC-39A: Starlink 4-2
NET 8th, SLC-40: Starlink 4-34
NET 15th TBA, LC-39A?: Starlink 4-35 ??
NET 20th, SLC-40?: Starlink 4-36
(hypothetical), SLC-4E: Starlink 3-?
NET 29th, SLC-4E: SDA Tracking Layer Tranche 0, Flight 1

October Falcon 9 launches:
early, LC-39A: Crew-5
8th, SLC-40?: Galaxy 33 and 34 (launch due east)
17th, ??: Eutelsat Hotbird 13G? (launch due east)
TBD, LC-39A: Cargo Dragon SpX-26 (Nov)
Q4 (1st of 3 mPower launches), SLC-40: O3b mPower 1 and 2 (launch due east)
Q4, SLC-40: WorldView Legion 1 and 2

Edited
« Last Edit: 08/24/2022 01:10 pm by zubenelgenubi »
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Online ZachF

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #742 on: 08/19/2022 07:56 pm »
My estimated tally for YTD Δv adjusted payload to orbit:

529,282 (46x) 🇺🇸 United States
465,460 (37x) 🇺🇸 (SpaceX)
117,287 (29x) 🇨🇳 China
51,838 (11x) 🇷🇺 Russia
24,579 (2x) 🇪🇺 Europe
2,928 (2x) 🇮🇳 India
2,199 (1x) 🇰🇷 South Korea
1,090 (6x) 🇳🇿 New Zealand
15 (1x) 🇮🇷 Iran

729,704 🇺🇳 (98x) Earth

SpaceX is 63.8% of the YTD total!
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Offline friendly3

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #743 on: 08/19/2022 10:47 pm »
My estimated tally for YTD Δv adjusted payload to orbit:

529,282 (46x) 🇺🇸 United States
465,460 (37x) 🇺🇸 (SpaceX)
117,287 (29x) 🇨🇳 China
51,838 (11x) 🇷🇺 Russia
24,579 (2x) 🇪🇺 Europe
2,928 (2x) 🇮🇳 India
2,199 (1x) 🇰🇷 South Korea
1,090 (6x) 🇳🇿 New Zealand
15 (1x) 🇮🇷 Iran

729,704 🇺🇳 (98x) Earth

SpaceX is 63.8% of the YTD total!

How did you find 24,579 kg for Europe? I have 10,179 kg.

Offline Josh_from_Canada

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #744 on: 08/20/2022 01:36 am »
These both look like GTO trajectories. Any idea on what the payload(s) will be?

1436-EX-ST-2022
Mission 1588 from LC-40 at CCAFS or LC-39A at KSC, and the experimental recovery operation following the Falcon 9 launch
NET late September
ASDS to the East:  North  28  13  44   West  74  1  5

1452-EX-ST-2022
Mission 1498 from LC-40 at CCAFS or LC-39A at KSC, and the experimental recovery operation following the Falcon 9 launch
NET early October
ASDS to the East:  North  28  24  49   West  73  48  19
Launches Seen: Atlas V OA-7, Falcon 9 Starlink 6-4, Falcon 9 CRS-28,

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #745 on: 08/20/2022 02:52 am »
Intelsat and Eutelsat are the obvious choices.  If not those two, O3B is also launching to the east in October-ish timeframe.

Online ZachF

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #746 on: 08/20/2022 07:24 pm »
My estimated tally for YTD Δv adjusted payload to orbit:

529,282 (46x)  United States
465,460 (37x)  (SpaceX)
117,287 (29x)  China
51,838 (11x)  Russia
24,579 (2x)  Europe
2,928 (2x)  India
2,199 (1x)  South Korea
1,090 (6x)  New Zealand
15 (1x)  Iran

729,704  (98x) Earth

SpaceX is 63.8% of the YTD total!

How did you find 24,579 kg for Europe? I have 10,179 kg.

It’s delta v adjusted to 185km x 28.5d LEO, so that lighter higher energy payloads don’t get undercounted. Payloads sent to a GTO-1500 trajectory get a ~2.41x modifier. It uses the rocket equation and the isp (320) of a hypergolic orbit raise motor.

They get modifiers individually based on their injection orbits, but roughly the modifiers would look like this:

1.00x 185km LEO
1.06x ISS
1.25x 550km SSO
2.20x GTO-1800
2.41x GTO-1500
2.70x TLI
3.87x direct GEO insertion
« Last Edit: 08/20/2022 07:32 pm by ZachF »
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Offline Robotbeat

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #747 on: 08/20/2022 07:37 pm »
Good methodology.
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Online ZachF

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #748 on: 08/20/2022 09:05 pm »
Good methodology.

Ultimately there will be edge cases for anything, but I think this is the “least unfair” way to tally payloads. Here are a few examples of Adjusted payload value (APV) to show how it works in practice:

-A Falcon 9 launching 16,250kg of Starlink sats to ~230x53d would have an APV of ~17,190.

-A Falcon 9 launching a 5.5t Geo sat to GTO-1800 would have an APV of ~12,100.

-A Delta IV Heavy lofting a 6t Orion satellite directly to geostationary would have a APV of ~23,240

-An Ariane 5 sending 9,500kg to GTO-1500 would have an APV of ~22,950

-A Saturn V sending 46t of CSM and LEM to TLI would have an APV of ~124,000.

The APV for the upcoming SLS launch will probably be in the 70,000-72,000 range.
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Offline waveney

Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #749 on: 08/23/2022 08:26 pm »
News of a Net April 2025 Space X Falcon 9 mission for NASA not sure where it should go...

https://phys.org/news/2022-08-nasa-mission-sun.html

NASA schedules Polarimeter to Unify the Corona and Heliosphere (PUNCH) mission to launch in 2025; will study the sun

Also refers to other payload on same flight: SPHEREx

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #750 on: 08/23/2022 08:41 pm »
News of a Net April 2025 Space X Falcon 9 mission for NASA not sure where it should go...

https://phys.org/news/2022-08-nasa-mission-sun.html

NASA schedules Polarimeter to Unify the Corona and Heliosphere (PUNCH) mission to launch in 2025; will study the sun

Also refers to other payload on same flight: SPHEREx

the "other" payload is the main payload, and has an existing mission thread: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=53004.0

Offline zubenelgenubi

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #751 on: 08/24/2022 01:11 pm »
Will there be another Starlink Group 3 launch from Vandenberg between Starlink 3-4 (late August) and the SDA launch (NET September 29)?
Apparently not.
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Offline wannamoonbase

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #752 on: 08/26/2022 03:32 pm »
A question/discussion for my fellow Manifest junkies.

Regarding Elon's mention of a Starlink V2-Mini on F9. 

I would expect that part of a plan to mitigate any Starship development delays means that SpaceX needs to plan for an even more aggressive F9/FH launch cadence.

The pinch points for even more F9 flights would be upper stages and maybe adding a 3rd East coast ASDS.

For the upper stage does that mean any more testing capabilities in Texas?
An ASDS is a longer lead item and would have to be almost underway now.

Any thoughts?
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Offline DanClemmensen

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #753 on: 08/26/2022 03:37 pm »

The pinch points for even more F9 flights would be upper stages and maybe adding a 3rd East coast ASDS.

Any thoughts?
I thought they were approaching their maximum permitted launch rate for the Eastern range. Is there a technical limit on the range (flight controllers or whatever the call the personnel), or is this simply a regulatory constraint? Would shipping interests object to more frequent keep-out notices?

Online crandles57

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #754 on: 08/26/2022 04:00 pm »
Seems to me the regulatory 60 launches from Florida (5 per month) is about max that 2 ASDS can do. If 2 pads and 2 ASDS can do 60, the next easy one is to get Vandenberg up towards 30.

90 is a fairly large increase on the current nearly 6 per month.

If ~90 isn't enough, then it starts to get more problematic possibly needing several things, like: regulatory limit increase, extra ASDS, improved second stage production rate ...

If these issues are long, difficult, and expensive to solve, perhaps a bigger backlog of launches until Starship is sorted out makes more sense than fixing these issues for only a relatively short period of usage of the higher launch rate?

Online ZachF

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #755 on: 08/28/2022 02:00 pm »
Latest delta-v adjusted payload tallies:

546,970 (47x) 🇺🇸 United States
483,148 (38x) 🇺🇸 (SpaceX)
119,587 (31x) 🇨🇳 China
51,838 (11x) 🇷🇺 Russia
24,579 (2x) 🇪🇺 Europe
2,928 (2x) 🇮🇳 India
2,199 (1x) 🇰🇷 South Korea
1,090 (6x) 🇳🇿 New Zealand
15 (1x) 🇮🇷 Iran

749,692 🇺🇳 (101x) Earth

The reason I post this so close to the last one is because there is an important milestone about to be achieved; By my calcs, the all-time record for adjusted payload to orbit was set in 1988 by the USSR at 607,394. The upcoming SLS launch alone will add 70,000+ to the total and there is another ~17,000 Starlink launch right after. This year the US should handily beat that by 50%+.

The current American launch cadence is pretty unprecedented. I mean, the figure for SpaceX this year alone will be roughly equal to what Arianespace have done in the last decade.  :o

Attached below is my estimates by country and year (1964/65 is rough estimate btw because data is unfinished)
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Offline c4fusion

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #756 on: 08/28/2022 07:27 pm »
I just saw this thread and the very cool delta V normalized chart from @ZachF. Not sure if this will derail the conversation too much, if so, moderators please feel free to delete this.

@ZachF Would that mean the normalized payload mass for landing Lunar Starship be on the order of half million to a million? Guessing landed mass to be 150 tons and multiplier of about 5.

Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #757 on: 08/31/2022 04:00 pm »

Offline Vultur

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #758 on: 08/31/2022 07:40 pm »
I dont know how many Starship flights are possible. Boca Chica is only permitted for 5/year after the 3 experimental... so if 1 is this year then no more than 7 from BC in 2023, right?

They are already building the launch tower in Florida though...

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #759 on: 08/31/2022 07:53 pm »
I dont know how many Starship flights are possible. Boca Chica is only permitted for 5/year after the 3 experimental... so if 1 is this year then no more than 7 from BC in 2023, right?

They are already building the launch tower in Florida though...
Yea, they are expecting (okay, TRYING) to fly from Florida very, very soon. Most certainly in 2023.

but TBH, if they get more than 6 total Starship orbital flights in 2023, I’ll be surprised because it just takes time to ramp such things up.

They’re also trying to get approvals for more launch pads in Florida, and doubtless will try for more in South Texas.
« Last Edit: 08/31/2022 07:55 pm by Robotbeat »
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To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

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