Author Topic: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread  (Read 238108 times)

Offline su27k

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #660 on: 05/11/2022 11:48 am »
EchoStar 24 / Jupiter 3 is scheduled for launch on a Falcon 9 in early 2023

https://spacenews.com/echostar-says-jupiter-3-wont-be-ready-for-2022-launch/

Somehow Falcon-9 doesn't fit the earlier article at SpaceNews:
https://spacenews.com/echostar-q4-2020/
Quote
EchoStar has selected the launch vehicle for Jupiter-3 but not yet announced it. Kaul said the large rocket selected “should limit the amount of time related to satellite orbit raising, which will assist our in-service schedule.”

I would have expected a Falcon Heavy.

FCC Filing for EchoStar XXIV 2019 attachment A.pdf
https://licensing.fcc.gov/myibfs/download.do?attachment_key=1625879

Quote
Total Solar Pressure Area “A” = 155 m2
“M” = Dry Mass of Satellite = 5817 kg

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/1524264239325761536

Quote
The @EchoStar /@HughesNet EchoStar 24/Jupiter 3 Ka-band broadband sat, whose launch w/ @SpaceX has slipped to early 2023, will weigh 9,200 kg at launch, according to prime contractor @Maxar. Stunning.
« Last Edit: 05/11/2022 11:49 am by su27k »

Online ZachS09

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #661 on: 05/11/2022 12:43 pm »
Yup. Definitely a Falcon Heavy payload.

Even an expendable Falcon 9 couldn’t have gotten EchoStar 24/Jupiter 3 far. It would end up in a sub-synchronous transfer orbit with an apogee of maybe 18,000 kilometers or something.

A Falcon Heavy can lift the satellite all the way and still recover the side boosters, but then the center core would have to be expended.
« Last Edit: 05/11/2022 02:36 pm by ZachS09 »
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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #662 on: 05/11/2022 02:03 pm »
0881-EX-ST-2022
Mission 1590, NET late June
Low inclination with ASDS landing, North  27  47  53   West  73  50  48

Nilesat?

It's pretty much exactly the same trajectory (6.60000 degrees SE) as the previous grant it uses information from (0450-EX-ST-2022), just ~3% shorter landing distance

Online scr00chy

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #663 on: 05/11/2022 02:28 pm »
Could it be a mistake? 9,200 lbs would be 4,173 kg which is a much more reasonable mass for an F9 payload.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #664 on: 05/11/2022 03:07 pm »
Could it be a mistake? 9,200 lbs would be 4,173 kg which is a much more reasonable mass for an F9 payload.
Peter B. de Selding called it "stunning".  He's a veteran space reporter, I doubt it's a mistake.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #665 on: 05/11/2022 03:12 pm »
The dry mass figure from the FCC fits well with the wet launch mass figure.

8200kg is the GTO capacity for Falcon 9 expendable, so it’s possibly they’re going to launch it to a very low GTO.

But I suspect this is a reusable Falcon Heavy launch. Expendable Falcon Heavy can do about 26.7t to GTO.
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Offline Skyrocket

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #666 on: 05/11/2022 06:09 pm »
Could it be a mistake? 9,200 lbs would be 4,173 kg which is a much more reasonable mass for an F9 payload.

The dry mass of Echostar 24 (Jupiter 3) is known to be already 5817 kg. This is really a huge satellite.

I also think a FH is likely. A F9 with low perigee would take a long time to raise and as Echostar had already stated, they want to use a heavy launch vehicle which “should limit the amount of time related to satellite orbit raising, which will assist our in-service schedule.”

Offline zubenelgenubi

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #667 on: 05/12/2022 08:48 pm »
Perhaps seven Falcon launches in June?

SARah-1 from SLC-4E, NET June 3

Dragon SpX-25 from LC-39A, June 7

Nilesat-301 from SLC-40, also June 7 (expended, therefore no ASDS required)

Starlink 4-19 from (my hypothesis: LC-39A) SLC-40, NET June 10 / mid June

SES-22 from SLC-40, NET NLT mid June (or July) (due to ASDS availability)

A hypothetical Starlink 4-20 from SLC-4E, NET late June

A hypothetical Starlink 4-21 from LC-39A or SLC-40, late June

Nilesat-301 from SLC-40, late June (expended, therefore no ASDS required)

USSF-44 from LC-39A, late June (uses both JRTI and ASOG)

A lot of editing
« Last Edit: 05/14/2022 08:30 pm by zubenelgenubi »
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Online wannamoonbase

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #668 on: 05/12/2022 09:53 pm »
Perhaps seven Falcon launches in June?

SARah-1 from SLC-4E, NET June 3

Dragon SpX-25 from LC-39A, June 7

Starlink 4-19 from SLC-40, NET June 10

SES-22 from SLC-40, NLT mid June (or July) (due to ASDS availability)

A hypothetical Starlink 4-20 from SLC-4E, NET late June

Nilesat-301 from SLC-40, late June (expended, therefore no ASDS required)

USSF-44 from LC-39A, late June (uses both JRTI and ASOG)

It's not impossible, I counted yesterday the non-Starlink flights listed for the rest of 2022 is 29!  And that only includes 1 Oneweb.

It's going to be a very busy rest of the year, even if half those flights slide in 2023.

Converting 39A to FH and back again is going to put a hole in the launch cadence as well.

This is going to be wild to watch.
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Offline zubenelgenubi

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #669 on: 05/13/2022 05:07 pm »
NextSpaceFlight indicates that the launch is now scheduled for the last quarter of this year.
Now same states NET December 2022.

Assuming this is true, it means, among other things, that SpaceX can use LC-39A for one or two? more Falcon 9 launches after SpX-25 (June 7) and before Psyche (August 1).

Perhaps Starlink 4-19 shifts from SLC-40 to LC-39A, leaving Nilesat-301 and SES-22 launching back-to-back at SLC-40?

Edit May 13: Nilesat-301 now launching June 7.

A hypothetical Starlink 4-21 from LC-39A in late June?
« Last Edit: 05/14/2022 08:19 pm by zubenelgenubi »
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Online wannamoonbase

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #670 on: 05/13/2022 08:20 pm »
I know I’m not alone, we need more launches from Vandenberg. 

They such dramatic weather conditions and it will help add to the cadence with 3 pads.

Seems they could probably do a launch every 2-3 weeks and add another 20 launches a year. 

They’re doing more lately but seems they could double up.
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Offline Zed_Noir

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #671 on: 05/14/2022 01:08 am »
I know I’m not alone, we need more launches from Vandenberg. 

They such dramatic weather conditions and it will help add to the cadence with 3 pads.

Seems they could probably do a launch every 2-3 weeks and add another 20 launches a year. 

They’re doing more lately but seems they could double up.
Launching from Vandenberg is not as necessary as previously with SpaceX able to do some polar and SSO launches from Florida.

Wonder if payload processing at Vandenberg have enough capacity for a doubling of the current West coast launch cadence. Also the number of Falcon 9 cores that can be ready for each month is unclear for the West coast.

Online scr00chy

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #672 on: 05/16/2022 01:13 pm »
Could it be a mistake? 9,200 lbs would be 4,173 kg which is a much more reasonable mass for an F9 payload.

The dry mass of Echostar 24 (Jupiter 3) is known to be already 5817 kg. This is really a huge satellite.

I also think a FH is likely. A F9 with low perigee would take a long time to raise and as Echostar had already stated, they want to use a heavy launch vehicle which “should limit the amount of time related to satellite orbit raising, which will assist our in-service schedule.”


FH confirmed:
https://twitter.com/ElonXnet/status/1526188916705042432
« Last Edit: 05/16/2022 01:13 pm by scr00chy »

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #673 on: 05/17/2022 06:34 am »
https://twitter.com/edzapata/status/1525846829522374657

Quote
With this Falcon 9 launch, SpaceX just reached the most number of launches set by the Delta II/III workhorse #spacex #Starlink

Offline GWR64

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #674 on: 05/26/2022 04:09 pm »
Falcon Heavy rideshare payload  ???  SES-STA-INTR2022-01689

Quote
USN support of the geosynchronous test spacecraft
USUVL from USN’s Hawaiian earth station.
The spacecraft will be launched on or about October 9 th, 2021 on a Falcon Heavy
from the Kennedy Space Center. USUVL will rideshare on the vehicle with an
unspecified US military spacecraft. USUVL will be injected into super-sync orbit
on or about November 27 th thru December 8 th at which time USN will begin S-
band support. ...

2021  ???
« Last Edit: 05/26/2022 04:11 pm by GWR64 »

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #675 on: 05/26/2022 04:20 pm »
Falcon Heavy rideshare payload  ???  SES-STA-INTR2022-01689
2021  ???

They just forgot to change the date on the paperwork.  Probably USSF-44 mission.

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=47474.msg2236960#msg2236960

edit: The new STA just starts on the day the previous STA ends.  Doesn't reallly say anything about the new launch date.
« Last Edit: 05/26/2022 04:26 pm by gongora »

Offline zubenelgenubi

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #676 on: 05/26/2022 07:58 pm »
0881-EX-ST-2022
Mission 1590, NET late June [NET June 20]
Low inclination with ASDS landing, North  27  47  53   West  73  50  48

Nilesat?

Nilesat 301 is now expendable. I'm guessing SES-22 will use the one for Nilesat 301 and this might be for O3b mPOWER which per SES the first mission should launch as soon as July
Newer news: Nilesat-301 will launch on B1062.7, first stage ASDS landing.

Will the frequency request be revised for an earlier launch date, currently June 10?

Or will this (still?) apply to SES-22?  The first O3b mPower launch is now scheduled in August.
« Last Edit: 05/26/2022 09:24 pm by zubenelgenubi »
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Offline zubenelgenubi

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #677 on: 05/27/2022 03:45 pm »
Will all July Falcon 9 launches be Starlink clusters, and nothing else?

I think so, 🤔 unless SARah 2 and 3 show up at Vandenberg in June for a July launch.  Every other payload is listed for August or later.
« Last Edit: 05/27/2022 04:02 pm by zubenelgenubi »
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Offline zubenelgenubi

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #678 on: 05/28/2022 01:19 am »
Launch Photography Viewing Guide, updated May 27:

Next launch:
Quote
Falcon 9, early June @ TBA EDT (pad 40): Check back soon for information on where to view the next launch.
Quote
The next SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket is TBA. A Falcon 9 from pad 40 will launch the Nilesat 301 communication satellite on June. A Falcon 9 from pad 39A will launch the CRS-25 resupply mission to the ISS on June 9 at 10:45am EDT. Other upcoming launches include a Falcon 9 from pad 40 on mid-June. A Falcon 9 will launch the SES-22 communication satellite from pad 40 on June 27 or 28. Falcon 9s will launch more Starlink batches on TBD. A Falcon 9 will launch the Korean Pathfinder Lunar Orbiter on August 2. The next astronaut crew launch and the next Falcon Heavy launch are scheduled for September earliest.

There appears to be 4 SLC-40 launches in June vs. 1 LC-39A launch.

Is the Nilesat-301 launch date moving forward?  Or is a new launch being inserted into the schedule?

The schedule yesterday had 16 days between the Transporter-5 launch on May 25, and the the Nilesat-301 launch on June 10, at SLC-40.

The time-of-day of the Nilesat-301 launch should stay roughly the same?

The mid June SLC-40 launch: perhaps Starlink 4-19?

The launch time-of-day of SES-22 could fall in the time period of June 27 8:00 pm to 11:59 pm EDT = June 28 00:00 to 03:59 UTC.  That would make both June 27 or 28 the launch date, depending on the time zone referenced.
« Last Edit: 05/28/2022 01:39 am by zubenelgenubi »
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Offline zubenelgenubi

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #679 on: 05/28/2022 06:41 pm »
Launch Photography Viewing Guide, updated May 27:
<snip>
Is the Nilesat-301 launch date moving forward?  Or is a new launch being inserted into the schedule?

The schedule yesterday had 16 days between the Transporter-5 launch on May 25, and the the Nilesat-301 launch on June 10, at SLC-40.

The time-of-day of the Nilesat-301 launch should stay roughly the same?
<snip>
Same source, updated May 28:
Ben Cooper indicates on his website that the launch is scheduled for June 7 at 21:03 UTC.
« Last Edit: 05/28/2022 06:42 pm by zubenelgenubi »
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