Author Topic: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread  (Read 286200 times)

Offline zubenelgenubi

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #880 on: 10/30/2022 05:58 pm »
I note LC-39A may be available after SpX-26, currently scheduled for launch on November 18, and January 2023.

Unless there is Starship construction work?

Edit to add:
Nov 1                               FH  USSF-44
Nov 18                             F9  SpX-26
<nothing scheduled; Starlink(s)?>
NET Dec 27 NET Jan 4  FH  ViaSat-3 Americas
Jan 10                              F9  SpX-27
Jan (or Dec 2022?)        FH  USSF-67
Feb                                    F9  Crew-6

Further edits
« Last Edit: 11/03/2022 08:22 am by zubenelgenubi »
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Offline AmigaClone

Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #881 on: 10/30/2022 06:40 pm »
I note LC-39A may be available after SpX-26, currently scheduled for launch on November 18, and January 2023.

Unless there is Starship construction work?

It might be interesting to see what happens. Depending on when USSF-67 is launching, there might be time for one to three F9 launches before the pad is converted to the FH mode again. Granted, Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year's are in that period which likely would disrupt the normal flow.

Offline vaporcobra

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #882 on: 10/30/2022 11:20 pm »
I note LC-39A may be available after SpX-26, currently scheduled for launch on November 18, and January 2023.

Unless there is Starship construction work?

Edit to add:
Nov 1          FH  USSF-44
Nov 18        F9  SpX-26
<nothing scheduled; Starlink(s)?>
NET Jan 4  FH  ViaSat-3 Americas
Jan 10         F9  SpX-27
Jan              FH  USSF-67
Feb              F9  Crew-6

Compared to FH->F9, converting 39A from F9 Dragon to F9 fairing is also relatively easy. So another Falcon 9 launch after CRS-26 seems very likely. Maybe even 2-3, given that CRS-27 seems FAR more likely to stick to its current schedule than ViaSat-3. And if they both somehow avoid delays, I'm skeptical that ViaSat-3 and CRS-27 can launch 6 days apart, given that the record for the much easier Dragon->fairing conversion is ~9 days.

Edit: And a good point.

Granted, Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year's are in that period which likely would disrupt the normal flow.

The latest SpaceX has ever launched (twice) is Dec 23. The earliest (also twice) is Jan 6. The best-case scenario would definitely be converting 39A from F9 to FH or F9 to Dragon over that forced break - downtime that is seemingly unavoidable regardless of the timing.
« Last Edit: 10/30/2022 11:31 pm by vaporcobra »

Online crandles57

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #883 on: 10/31/2022 03:57 pm »

The latest SpaceX has ever launched (twice) is Dec 23. The earliest (also twice) is Jan 6. The best-case scenario would definitely be converting 39A from F9 to FH or F9 to Dragon over that forced break - downtime that is seemingly unavoidable regardless of the timing.

Minimising conversion time might call for consecutive FH launches, so 2 conversions instead of 4?

[Edit - ignore this CRS27 February
Can we compare with minimum times between
CRS27 on 10 Jan,
convert to FH,
2FH launches,
convert back to F9 then
Crew6 in Feb?
What is earliest Crew6 could be done this way?

Alternative to be compared:
Conversion to FH over Christmas,
ViaSat3 4Jan,
convert back to F9 fairingless,
CRS27,
convert to FH,
USSF 67,
Convert to F9 crewed
Crew6
]
.
On a different subject, Nov launch boosters
Already assigned boosters
FH 1064 1065 1066
Galaxy 1051
Eutelsat 10B 1049
Starlink 2-4

Unassigned flights
Hotbird 13G
CRS-26
Hakuto-R
Starlink 4-37

Boosters available for above 4 flights
1052.8 last flew 5 Sept
1058.15 lf 11 Sept
1067.7 lf 19 Sept
1073.5 lf 24 Sept

Allocate in that order or is CRS-26 more likely to get a little flown booster?
« Last Edit: 10/31/2022 05:08 pm by crandles57 »

Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #884 on: 10/31/2022 04:03 pm »
CRS-27 is February

Offline GWR64

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #885 on: 10/31/2022 05:11 pm »

The latest SpaceX has ever launched (twice) is Dec 23. The earliest (also twice) is Jan 6. The best-case scenario would definitely be converting 39A from F9 to FH or F9 to Dragon over that forced break - downtime that is seemingly unavoidable regardless of the timing.

Minimising conversion time might call for consecutive FH launches, so 2 conversions instead of 4?

Can we compare with minimum times between
CRS27 on 10 Jan,
convert to FH,
2FH launches,
convert back to F9 then
Crew6 in Feb?
What is earliest Crew6 could be done this way?

Alternative to be compared:
Conversion to FH over Christmas,
ViaSat3 4Jan,
convert back to F9 fairingless,
CRS27,
convert to FH,
USSF 67,
Convert to F9 crewed
Crew6

.
On a different subject, Nov launch boosters
Already assigned boosters
FH 1064 1065 1066
Galaxy 1051
Eutelsat 10B 1049
Starlink 2-4

Unassigned flights
Hotbird 13G
CRS-26
Hakuto-R
Starlink 4-37

Boosters available for above 4 flights
1052.8 last flew 5 Sept
1058.15 lf 11 Sept
1067.7 lf 19 Sept
1073.5 lf 24 Sept

Allocate in that order or is CRS-26 more likely to get a little flown booster?

Why not B1077.2 for CRS-26?
B1073 has at the last 2 Starlink missions 2 fewer satellites transported than other first stages recently under comparable conditions. What's up with this booster?
forgot: Next Spaceflight is now reporting B1067.7 for Hotbird 13G
« Last Edit: 10/31/2022 05:17 pm by GWR64 »

Online crandles57

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #886 on: 10/31/2022 05:53 pm »
On a different subject, Nov launch boosters
Already assigned boosters
FH 1064 1065 1066
Galaxy 1051
Eutelsat 10B 1049
Starlink 2-4

Unassigned flights
Hotbird 13G
CRS-26
Hakuto-R
Starlink 4-37

Boosters available for above 4 flights
1052.8 last flew 5 Sept
1058.15 lf 11 Sept
1067.7 lf 19 Sept
1073.5 lf 24 Sept

Allocate in that order or is CRS-26 more likely to get a little flown booster?

Why not B1077.2 for CRS-26?
B1073 has at the last 2 Starlink missions 2 fewer satellites transported than other first stages recently under comparable conditions. What's up with this booster?
forgot: Next Spaceflight is now reporting B1067.7 for Hotbird 13G

Thanks.  :)
B1077 last flew 5 October next one after the ones I listed. 5 Oct to 20 Nov, 46 days is on low side but certainly isn't unmanageable if 27 days has been done.

Not in sequence if 1067.7 doing Hotbird 13G. Perhaps B1052 now regarded as one of the older ones that take longer to prepare?

Offline AmigaClone

Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #887 on: 10/31/2022 08:31 pm »
On a different subject, Nov launch boosters
Already assigned boosters
FH 1064 1065 1066
Galaxy 1051
Eutelsat 10B 1049
Starlink 2-4

Unassigned flights
Hotbird 13G
CRS-26
Hakuto-R
Starlink 4-37

Boosters available for above 4 flights
1052.8 last flew 5 Sept
1058.15 lf 11 Sept
1067.7 lf 19 Sept
1073.5 lf 24 Sept

Allocate in that order or is CRS-26 more likely to get a little flown booster?

Why not B1077.2 for CRS-26?
B1073 has at the last 2 Starlink missions 2 fewer satellites transported than other first stages recently under comparable conditions. What's up with this booster?
forgot: Next Spaceflight is now reporting B1067.7 for Hotbird 13G

Thanks.  :)
B1077 last flew 5 October next one after the ones I listed. 5 Oct to 20 Nov, 46 days is on low side but certainly isn't unmanageable if 27 days has been done.

Not in sequence if 1067.7 doing Hotbird 13G. Perhaps B1052 now regarded as one of the older ones that take longer to prepare?

B1052 is scheduled for ViaSat-3 Americas as part of a Falcon Heavy with B1053 and B1068 NET December. Perhaps the number of flights it has as a F9 is part of the reason SpaceX is allotting three months to refurbish and convert it back to a FH side booster.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #888 on: 11/01/2022 02:43 pm »
twitter.com/sciguyspace/status/1587440963793854466

Quote
SpaceX has now launched its 50th rocket of 2022. Consider that it took nearly eight years from the debut of the Falcon 9 in 2010 to reach launch no. 50.

https://twitter.com/13ericralph31/status/1587461502722002944

Quote
50 launches in the first 10 months of 2022, and SpaceX's first five-launch month EVER was in December 2021. Five launches of the same rocket in one month went from nonexistent to SpaceX's average with essentially a snap of its fingers!

Offline wannamoonbase

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #889 on: 11/04/2022 07:48 pm »
Seems there is room to add 1 or 2 Starlink missions into November. 

Especially with the Hakuto RTLS booster.

I know this is getting greedy on my part. 

Maybe the booster recovery teams are busy with the FH and Thanksgiving. 
Superheavy + Starship the final push to launch commit!

Offline zubenelgenubi

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #890 on: 11/05/2022 03:05 am »
Cross-post re: B1052.9:
NextSpaceFlight, circa April 25, shows this launch NET September 2022.



B1052.9: Side Booster, unknown recovery

B1068.1: Center Core, expendable

B1053.3: Side Booster, unknown recovery

Since I was the one updating those entires on Next... B1053's next flight is as FH side booster, it's not being converted to F9 (at least not until it flies Viasat-3).<snip>

NextSpaceFlight indicates that B1052.5 will support the launch of [Starlink 4-18].
Yep, still four more missions as F9 counting this one, then Falcon Heavy side for Viasat-3.

Why should 1052 be converted back again? I would rather think of the Psyche side boosters.
Maybe with 1053 as a backup if it hasn't been converted yet.

In the current report from ViaSat I did not find any information about the launch date. Which is generally not good news. But maybe I missed it.
https://investors.viasat.com/static-files/cbf95b9f-3d8d-4ea4-a2a2-cad3b3b0b09b

I didn't say it has to be, I said it will be. Viasat 3 will use B1052-9 and B1053-3 as side boosters.

Also, the side boosters for Psyche will be reused and expended on the launch of Europa Clipper
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Offline AmigaClone

Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #891 on: 11/06/2022 09:24 pm »
twitter.com/sciguyspace/status/1587440963793854466

Quote
SpaceX has now launched its 50th rocket of 2022. Consider that it took nearly eight years from the debut of the Falcon 9 in 2010 to reach launch no. 50.

https://twitter.com/13ericralph31/status/1587461502722002944

Quote
50 launches in the first 10 months of 2022, and SpaceX's first five-launch month EVER was in December 2021. Five launches of the same rocket in one month went from nonexistent to SpaceX's average with essentially a snap of its fingers!

If the 'Galaxy 31 and 32' mission launches before 11 November, SpaceX will have 60 launches in 365 days.

Offline Comga

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #892 on: 11/12/2022 02:02 am »
2022-10-04 16:48/-7   F9   1071-5   S   Starlink 4-29   LEO   ~16k   V   .   .
2022-10-05  1200/-4   F9   1077   S   CCtCap Crew-5   LEO   .   C-39A   .   .
2022-10-06  1907/-4   F9   1060-14   .   Galaxy 33/34   GTO   .   C-40   .   .
2022-10-13*2325/-4   F9   1069-3   .   Hotbird 13F   GTO   4500   C-40   .   .

(snip)

1 When was the last time, was there ever a time, when there were four launches on the manifest with dates and times?

New milestone:
At this time there are FIVE launches on the manifest with dates and times!

2022-11-12  11:06/-5     F9   1051-14   X   Galaxy 31/32    GTO              C-40   .   .
2022-11-16*19:22/-8     F9          .       S   Starlink 2-4       LEO      ~16k   V     .   .
2022-11-17    6:33/-5     F9          .       .    Eutelsat 10B      GTO         .   C-40   .   .
2022-11-21  16:15/-5     F9          .       S   CRS2 SpX-26     LEO          .   C-39A     .   
2022-11-22    4:17/-5     F9          .       L   HAKUTO-R         TLI           .   C-40   .   .

(Most of these are from the Manifest but some data is taken from the mission threads.)
« Last Edit: 11/12/2022 02:15 am by Comga »
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Online crandles57

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #893 on: 11/12/2022 03:37 pm »

New milestone:
At this time there are FIVE launches on the manifest with dates and times!

2022-11-12  11:06/-5     F9   1051-14   X   Galaxy 31/32    GTO              C-40   .   .
2022-11-16*19:22/-8     F9          .       S   Starlink 2-4       LEO      ~16k   V     .   .
2022-11-17    6:33/-5     F9          .       .    Eutelsat 10B      GTO         .   C-40   .   .
2022-11-21  16:15/-5     F9          .       S   CRS2 SpX-26     LEO          .   C-39A     .   
2022-11-22    4:17/-5     F9          .       L   HAKUTO-R         TLI           .   C-40   .   .

(Most of these are from the Manifest but some data is taken from the mission threads.)

Wikipedia has booster numbers for next 6 flights, though B1073.5 for Hakuto-R doesn't seem well referenced - what rules out it being for One web flight? (well it was 6 before Galaxy 31 32 launched)

Offline seb21051

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #894 on: 11/13/2022 03:06 am »
What about Starlink 4-37 and Oneweb #15?
« Last Edit: 11/13/2022 03:08 am by seb21051 »

Offline meekGee

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #895 on: 11/25/2022 08:40 am »
Did we just note the 1 launch/week milestone for 2022?
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Offline Comga

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #896 on: 11/25/2022 04:46 pm »
Did we just note the 1 launch/week milestone for 2022?

That has been the case since the summer.
SpaceX has actually exceeded launching every six days for the last ten or so missions before this most recent hiatus.

edit: When the red line in the graph in this post exceeds 52 (wks/yr=365/7) the pace of the last ten flights exceeds one per week.  Early enough in the year or long enough and it applies to the whole year. 
When it exceeds 61 (365/6) the pace surpasses a launch every six days.
« Last Edit: 11/25/2022 06:57 pm by Comga »
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline zubenelgenubi

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #897 on: 11/25/2022 05:37 pm »
Some of the December SpaceX manifest is clear as mud to us on the outside.

Launched:
Nov 26   KSC LC-39A   SpX-26

Scheduled for November:

Launched in December:
Dec 8 early 6 7   KSC LC-39A   OneWeb Fl 15

Scheduled for December:
Dec 11 1 7                      CCSFS SLC-40     HAKUTO-R
Dec 15 12                       Vand SLC-4E       SWOT
Dec 16 15 late 13 mid  CCSFS SLC-40    O3b mPower 1 and 2
Early Mid Dec?               KSC LC-39A? CCSFS SLC-40  Starlink 4-37 (or Transporter-6)
Late? Dec 6? mid           CCSFS SLC-40    Transporter-6 (or Starlink 4-37)
Dec 29                              Vand SLC-4E      EROS C3 #1
Dec?                                 CCSFS SLC-40   Starlink 2-2

<There appears to be schedule room for a mid December Starlink launch from LC-39A, before preparations for the January Falcon Heavy launch(es) and/or SpX-27.>

May Will slip into 2023
Nov NET Dec    Vand SLC-4E      Starlink 2-4
NET mid Dec?   Vand SLC-4E     SDA Tracking Layer Tranche 0 Fl 1
NET Dec             Florida                Starlink 5-1
NET Dec             Florida                Starlink 4-24
NET Dec 30?     Vand SLC-4E      SARah 2 and 3



Edit Nov 26 (slightly further illumination)

SFN, SpaceX launches Dragon cargo ship to deliver new solar arrays to space station, November 26:
Quote
The launch Saturday was the 54th SpaceX mission so far in 2022. SpaceX aims to launch around a half-dozen Falcon 9 rockets from Florida and California by the end of December to reach the company’s goal of 60 missions this year.

The next Falcon 9 launch is scheduled for Wednesday, Nov. 30, carrying a commercial lunar lander into space for the Japanese company ispace. The privately-developed spacecraft will attempt to become the first commercial mission to make a soft landing on the moon next year.

Edited multiple times
« Last Edit: 12/09/2022 02:43 am by zubenelgenubi »
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Offline meekGee

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #898 on: 11/26/2022 11:20 am »
Did we just note the 1 launch/week milestone for 2022?

That has been the case since the summer.
SpaceX has actually exceeded launching every six days for the last ten or so missions before this most recent hiatus.

edit: When the red line in the graph in this post exceeds 52 (wks/yr=365/7) the pace of the last ten flights exceeds one per week.  Early enough in the year or long enough and it applies to the whole year. 
When it exceeds 61 (365/6) the pace surpasses a launch every six days.
I know, I meant 52 in, so the yearly total has surpassed the 1/week benchmark even if two hurricanes and an earthquake hit tomorrow...

I'm curious how they'll surpass that next year without another barge.  More RTLS doesn't seem productive for Starlinks.
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Offline Zed_Noir

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #899 on: 11/29/2022 12:15 am »
Did we just note the 1 launch/week milestone for 2022?

That has been the case since the summer.
SpaceX has actually exceeded launching every six days for the last ten or so missions before this most recent hiatus.

edit: When the red line in the graph in this post exceeds 52 (wks/yr=365/7) the pace of the last ten flights exceeds one per week.  Early enough in the year or long enough and it applies to the whole year. 
When it exceeds 61 (365/6) the pace surpasses a launch every six days.
I know, I meant 52 in, so the yearly total has surpassed the 1/week benchmark even if two hurricanes and an earthquake hit tomorrow...

I'm curious how they'll surpass that next year without another barge.  More RTLS doesn't seem productive for Starlinks.
Maybe using the brute method of launching more Starlinks in a longer payload fairing on the Falcon Heavy with RTLS of all three boosters. SpaceX will need to paved another pad at landing zone 1 or somewhere else on the Space Coast.

Regardless SpaceX will need to consider additional down range landing platforms to keep up the launch cadence in case of maintenance or landing mishaps causing landing platform non-availability.



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