Author Topic: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread  (Read 286004 times)

Offline AmigaClone

Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #840 on: 10/09/2022 01:17 am »
With the completion of the Intelsat mission today, SpaceX is now tied with ULA on 154 successful consecutive orbital missions.

(Note: I’m including Zuma on the basis that even if, as rumoured, deployment failed that was not a SpaceX issue & the F9 performed correctly.)

IIRC SpaceX confirmed the Falcon 9 performed as designed with regards to Zuma.

Note: SpaceX took slightly less than six years as opposed to the nearly sixteen years by ULA to accumulate 154 consecutive successful orbital launches. That total includes 8 crewed launches by SpaceX vs 0 crewed launches by ULA.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #841 on: 10/09/2022 11:52 am »
https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/10/for-most-science-missions-nasa-is-down-to-a-single-launch-provider/

Quote
On Friday NASA closed the bidding process to select a launch vehicle for an upcoming Earth science mission to measure changes in sea level, Sentinel-6B. The mission is expected to launch into low Earth orbit about four years from now, and the space agency is finalizing its choice of a rocket.

Such bidding processes are secretive to protect the competitive interests of the bidders in terms of prices and capabilities. However, realistically, there is no mystery about who will win the Sentinel-6B contract. Like the spacecraft's twin, Sentinel-6A, we can expect this mission to launch on a Falcon 9 rocket sometime in 2026.

This is because, at present, there are no other bidders for NASA's medium and large science missions beyond SpaceX and its fleet of Falcon rockets.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #842 on: 10/10/2022 01:32 pm »
https://twitter.com/alexphysics13/status/1579444259337666560

Quote
For the first time in over 3 years SpaceX will expend a Falcon booster on purpose. But it's not just one, it'll be three boosters. If schedules hold, the order will be B1066, then B1051-14, and finally B1049-11.
nextspaceflight.com/launches/agenc…

Here goes a 🧵

twitter.com/alexphysics13/status/1579444262940602368

Quote
B1066 is a Falcon Heavy center core that will fly NET October 28th as part of the USSF-44 mission. It's new and it being expended will allow the second stage have enough performance to push that mission's payloads into GEO. Will look more or less like this

https://twitter.com/alexphysics13/status/1579444265658494977

Quote
B1051-14 is a Falcon 9 booster set to fly the Galaxy 31&32 mission. It first flew on the Demo-1 mission, Crew Dragon's first flight into orbit, and it was the first booster to reach 10 flights. It'll push both Galaxy satellites into a more energetic GTO.

twitter.com/alexphysics13/status/1579444268305100800

Quote
B1049-11 is a Falcon 9 booster that will fly on the Eutelsat 10B mission. Among its flights, this booster supported the first launch of Starlink satellites in May 2019. Its last flight is part of a previously unannounced three-mission deal with Eutelsat.

https://twitter.com/alexphysics13/status/1579444271123685376

Quote
It'll be sad to see these three boosters go and it's been a long time since SpaceX intentionally expended one but at least they'll go out doing just what Falcon does best... which is putting stuff into orbit.

Offline Zed_Noir

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #843 on: 10/10/2022 03:05 pm »
<snip>
.....SpaceX took slightly less than six years as opposed to the nearly sixteen years by ULA to accumulate 154 consecutive successful orbital launches. That total includes 8 crewed launches by SpaceX vs 0 crewed launches by ULA.
Not really ULA's fault that Boeing couldn't delivered a working Starliner on time.

Offline wannamoonbase

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #844 on: 10/10/2022 03:43 pm »
I'm ok with old cores being expended.  It helps speed up the launch candence by reducing the need for ASDS trips.

While LC39 is tied up with FH conversions SLC 40 has shown a 6 day turn around between flights.  If SLC40, the expended boosters and the ASDS are sequenced properly they could really show an impressive flight rate.

Superheavy + Starship the final push to launch commit!

Online DanClemmensen

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #845 on: 10/10/2022 06:10 pm »
I'm ok with old cores being expended.  It helps speed up the launch candence by reducing the need for ASDS trips.
SpaceX is a for-profit company. If a customer has a mission that requires an expended core and the customer is willing to pay for it, SpaceX will expend the core. They will choose to expend the "least valuable" core, which will either be an obsolete core (1049) or (probably) the oldest core. I somehow doubt they care whether or not we are "OK" with it.

Offline AmigaClone

Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #846 on: 10/11/2022 04:17 am »
https://twitter.com/alexphysics13/status/1579444259337666560

Quote
For the first time in over 3 years SpaceX will expend a Falcon booster on purpose. But it's not just one, it'll be three boosters. If schedules hold, the order will be B1066, then B1051-14, and finally B1049-11.
nextspaceflight.com/launches/agenc…

Here goes a 🧵

Quote
B1066 is a Falcon Heavy center core that will fly NET October 28th as part of the USSF-44 mission. It's new and it being expended will allow the second stage have enough performance to push that mission's payloads into GEO. Will look more or less like this

https://twitter.com/alexphysics13/status/1579444265658494977

Quote
B1051-14 is a Falcon 9 booster set to fly the Galaxy 31&32 mission. It first flew on the Demo-1 mission, Crew Dragon's first flight into orbit, and it was the first booster to reach 10 flights. It'll push both Galaxy satellites into a more energetic GTO.

twitter.com/alexphysics13/status/1579444268305100800

Quote
B1049-11 is a Falcon 9 booster that will fly on the Eutelsat 10B mission. Among its flights, this booster supported the first launch of Starlink satellites in May 2019. Its last flight is part of a previously unannounced three-mission deal with Eutelsat.

https://twitter.com/alexphysics13/status/1579444271123685376

Quote
It'll be sad to see these three boosters go and it's been a long time since SpaceX intentionally expended one but at least they'll go out doing just what Falcon does best... which is putting stuff into orbit.

I'm ok with old cores being expended.  It helps speed up the launch candence by reducing the need for ASDS trips.
SpaceX is a for-profit company. If a customer has a mission that requires an expended core and the customer is willing to pay for it, SpaceX will expend the core. They will choose to expend the "least valuable" core, which will either be an obsolete core (1049) or (probably) the oldest core. I somehow doubt they care whether or not we are "OK" with it.

I can also see SpaceX choosing to expend older booster(s) that is approaching the point where they would need major refurbishment - one that could potentially cost a significant percentage of the cost of a new booster. I suspect that is likely the case of B1049.11 and B1051.13.

The Falcon Heavy combination scheduled to launch USSF-44 (B1064.1, B1065.1, and B1066.1) originally was announced as attempting a dual ASDS landing. As such, B1066 has an interstage without gridfins and likely without the hardware needed to control them. It's possible that instead of just leaving the landing legs off the booster, B1066 was made without the attach points for the landing legs.

As a side note, the last year SpaceX expended more than one booster was in 2018, as SpaceX was retiring Block 3 and Block 4 boosters, expending seven boosters between 22 February 2018 and 29 June 2018.

Online ZachS09

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #847 on: 10/11/2022 11:48 am »
Most of the expended boosters in 2018 did landing tests following stage separation, hence why they left the recovery hardware on them.

Only a few expended boosters had their recovery hardware ditched altogether and were tasked with using up all their fuel for specific missions (i.e. SES-12).
Liftoff for St. Jude's! Go Dragon, Go Falcon, Godspeed Inspiration4!

Offline GWR64

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #848 on: 10/17/2022 12:01 pm »
cross posting from Eutelsat 13G thread
it mean 3 day after eutelsat 10B  will be launch >?
Eutelsat 10B has probably not arrived yet, great silence about it.
The tight launch schedule next month is still unclear to me.
FCC filing for one of two expendable Falcon 9 launches in November is missing. If I see this right.

difficult  ??? something like that?

Oct. 28        : pad 39A, USSF-44, Falcon-H, RTLS/exendable (any updates?)
NET Nov. 5  : pad 40 or 39A, Galaxy 31+32, expendable (FCC license for this launch is missing?)
Nov. 9-15    : pad 40 or 39A, HAKUTO-R, RTLS
mid. Nov. ?  : pad 40, Eutelsat 13G, ASDS
NET Nov. 15: pad 40, Eutelsat 10B, expendable
Nov. 18       : pad 39A, CRS-26, ASDS
« Last Edit: 10/17/2022 12:16 pm by GWR64 »

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #849 on: 10/17/2022 12:30 pm »

Oct. 28        : pad 39A, USSF-44, Falcon-H, RTLS/exendable (any updates?)
NET Nov. 5  : pad 40 or 39A, Galaxy 31+32, expendable (FCC license for this launch is missing?)
Nov. 9-15    : pad 40 or 39A, HAKUTO-R, RTLS
mid. Nov. ?  : pad 40, Eutelsat 13G, ASDS
NET Nov. 15: pad 40, Eutelsat 10B, expendable
Nov. 18       : pad 39A, CRS-26, ASDS

It's highly unlikely there would be any launches from 39A between USSF-44 and CRS-26.

Offline GWR64

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #850 on: 10/17/2022 12:35 pm »

Oct. 28        : pad 39A, USSF-44, Falcon-H, RTLS/exendable (any updates?)
NET Nov. 5  : pad 40 or 39A, Galaxy 31+32, expendable (FCC license for this launch is missing?)
Nov. 9-15    : pad 40 or 39A, HAKUTO-R, RTLS
mid. Nov. ?  : pad 40, Eutelsat 13G, ASDS
NET Nov. 15: pad 40, Eutelsat 10B, expendable
Nov. 18       : pad 39A, CRS-26, ASDS

It's highly unlikely there would be any launches from 39A between USSF-44 and CRS-26.

Yes, it can be, but then it fits even less.

Online crandles57

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #851 on: 10/17/2022 01:44 pm »
Spaceflight now and Ben Cooper seem clear about launches being pad 40 (other than FH and CRS)
6 day minimum pad 40 turnaround would make it more like

26-30 Oct      : pad 40 4-37
Late Oct         : pad 39A, USSF-44, Falcon-H, RTLS/expendable
NET Nov. 5    : pad 40 Galaxy 31+32, expendable (FCC license for this launch is missing?)
Nov. 11-15    : pad 40 HAKUTO-R, RTLS
Nov. 17+       : pad 40 Eutelsat 13G, ASDS
Nov. 18         : pad 39A CRS-26, ASDS
?NET Nov. 23+: pad 40 Eutelsat 10B, expendable

Nov                VSFB 2-4

busy enough, but quiet for drone ships.

Maybe room for a late Nov Starlink? launch from 39A?


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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #852 on: 10/18/2022 08:05 am »
https://www.teslarati.com/european-spacecraft-spacex-falcon-9-launches/

Quote
European spacecraft converge on the US for rides on SpaceX rockets
 
By Eric Ralph
Posted on October 17, 2022

Thanks in large part to delays suffered by Arianespace’s next-generation Ariane 6 rocket, a small fleet of European satellites are simultaneously converging on the United States to hitch rides into orbit with SpaceX.

[…]

SpaceX kicked off what could be an unprecedented string of seven launches of spacecraft built by or for Europe on October 15th.

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #853 on: 10/19/2022 05:24 pm »
Ariane 6 first launch now NET Q4 2023:

https://twitter.com/13ericralph31/status/1582784253620006913

Quote
oof. expect many more Ariane 6 payloads to follow Euclid and begin studying the possibility of switching to SpaceX in the near future 😬  At minimum, CSO-3, Optus-11, Electra, Uhura-1, several batches of Galileo satellites, and maybe even Viasat-3 APAC could all be affected.

Offline wannamoonbase

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #854 on: 10/19/2022 10:01 pm »
Ariane 6 first launch now NET Q4 2023:

https://twitter.com/13ericralph31/status/1582784253620006913

Quote
oof. expect many more Ariane 6 payloads to follow Euclid and begin studying the possibility of switching to SpaceX in the near future 😬  At minimum, CSO-3, Optus-11, Electra, Uhura-1, several batches of Galileo satellites, and maybe even Viasat-3 APAC could all be affected.

Wow, this is a huge slip. 

I can't wait to see how many flights F9/FH does in 2023 and 2024.  It's going to be historic.
Superheavy + Starship the final push to launch commit!

Offline lenny97

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #855 on: 10/19/2022 10:09 pm »
Ariane 6 first launch now NET Q4 2023:

https://twitter.com/13ericralph31/status/1582784253620006913

Quote
oof. expect many more Ariane 6 payloads to follow Euclid and begin studying the possibility of switching to SpaceX in the near future 😬  At minimum, CSO-3, Optus-11, Electra, Uhura-1, several batches of Galileo satellites, and maybe even Viasat-3 APAC could all be affected.

Honestly, I would be cautious with that statement of so many launches to be swapped on a Falcon 9/any other Rocket...

After the CSG-2 FM2 thing, Europe is even more annoyed: now I understand that some launches COULD be swapped, but I wouldn't expect that many (Eric mentioned at least 8 different launches).

We'll see but it's kinda early to write that...
« Last Edit: 10/19/2022 10:12 pm by lenny97 »
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Offline vaporcobra

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #856 on: 10/19/2022 11:12 pm »
Ariane 6 first launch now NET Q4 2023:

https://twitter.com/13ericralph31/status/1582784253620006913

Quote
oof. expect many more Ariane 6 payloads to follow Euclid and begin studying the possibility of switching to SpaceX in the near future 😬  At minimum, CSO-3, Optus-11, Electra, Uhura-1, several batches of Galileo satellites, and maybe even Viasat-3 APAC could all be affected.

Honestly, I would be cautious with that statement of so many launches to be swapped on a Falcon 9/any other Rocket...

After the CSG-2 FM2 thing, Europe is even more annoyed: now I understand that some launches COULD be swapped, but I wouldn't expect that many (Eric mentioned at least 8 different launches).

We'll see but it's kinda early to write that...

I don't expect Galileo launches to be swapped, for example, but it's clear that the costs of waiting for Ariane 5/6 are beginning to outweigh the mostly political costs of avoiding months to years of delays. There was CSG-2, yes, but there is also SARah 1/2/3 and EnMAP. And now there's Eutelsat 10B, Hotbird 13F/13G (which are even part of an ESA program), and a study that may end with Euclid following them onto Falcon 9.

If Eutelsat is willing to put its shareholders before its loyalty to the European launch industry, there's a good chance that other commercial customers will follow. And if ESA is willing to move Euclid to Falcon 9, even institutional payloads might no longer be a safe bet. I personally think that SpaceX will pick up 2-3 more launches as the Ariane 6 dust settles.
« Last Edit: 10/19/2022 11:14 pm by vaporcobra »

Offline Zed_Noir

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #857 on: 10/19/2022 11:34 pm »
Ariane 6 first launch now NET Q4 2023:

https://twitter.com/13ericralph31/status/1582784253620006913

Quote
oof. expect many more Ariane 6 payloads to follow Euclid and begin studying the possibility of switching to SpaceX in the near future 😬  At minimum, CSO-3, Optus-11, Electra, Uhura-1, several batches of Galileo satellites, and maybe even Viasat-3 APAC could all be affected.

Honestly, I would be cautious with that statement of so many launches to be swapped on a Falcon 9/any other Rocket...

After the CSG-2 FM2 thing, Europe is even more annoyed: now I understand that some launches COULD be swapped, but I wouldn't expect that many (Eric mentioned at least 8 different launches).

We'll see but it's kinda early to write that...
There ain't that many alternate medium and above  launch options for ESA. Russia and China are non-viable options. While ULA, Northrop Grumman and JAXA are introducing new launchers. That leaves the ISRO with the LVM-3 (aka GSLV Mark III) that have low throw weight and low launch cadence.

The SpaceX disruption of Arianespace and other launch providers will be epic if Arianespace and others can't not keep to the current revised launch schedule. It also means the Falcon family will likely not be quickly  phased out when the Starship enters service.

We live in an interesting time.

Online DanClemmensen

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #858 on: 10/19/2022 11:55 pm »
The SpaceX disruption of Arianespace and other launch providers will be epic if Arianespace and others can't not keep to the current revised launch schedule. It also means the Falcon family will likely not be quickly  phased out when the Starship enters service.
Why? If (as is not certain) SpaceX manages to get Starhip operational for cargo, then what keeps SpaceX from providing launches on Starship for a lower price than on F9/FH? It is expensive to keep Falcon 9 operational.

Offline lenny97

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #859 on: 10/20/2022 12:19 am »
Ariane 6 first launch now NET Q4 2023:

https://twitter.com/13ericralph31/status/1582784253620006913

Quote
oof. expect many more Ariane 6 payloads to follow Euclid and begin studying the possibility of switching to SpaceX in the near future 😬  At minimum, CSO-3, Optus-11, Electra, Uhura-1, several batches of Galileo satellites, and maybe even Viasat-3 APAC could all be affected.

Honestly, I would be cautious with that statement of so many launches to be swapped on a Falcon 9/any other Rocket...

After the CSG-2 FM2 thing, Europe is even more annoyed: now I understand that some launches COULD be swapped, but I wouldn't expect that many (Eric mentioned at least 8 different launches).

We'll see but it's kinda early to write that...

I don't expect Galileo launches to be swapped, for example, but it's clear that the costs of waiting for Ariane 5/6 are beginning to outweigh the mostly political costs of avoiding months to years of delays. There was CSG-2, yes, but there is also SARah 1/2/3 and EnMAP. And now there's Eutelsat 10B, Hotbird 13F/13G (which are even part of an ESA program), and a study that may end with Euclid following them onto Falcon 9.

If Eutelsat is willing to put its shareholders before its loyalty to the European launch industry, there's a good chance that other commercial customers will follow. And if ESA is willing to move Euclid to Falcon 9, even institutional payloads might no longer be a safe bet. I personally think that SpaceX will pick up 2-3 more launches as the Ariane 6 dust settles.

I'm not saying that commercial launches will not be swapped, that would be simply unlikely...

I'm talking more about institutional payloads. Yes Euclid is being swapped but "several batches of Galileo sats" it's a whole different thing... And I really don't expect that.

Glad to be proven wrong in a year from now...
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