Author Topic: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread  (Read 260529 times)

Offline wannamoonbase

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #800 on: 09/20/2022 10:07 pm »
SLC-40 is going to have to keep up a packed pace to get in these Starlink flights before the next Crew flight and with SLS looking for an opportunity.

I will be very impressed if SpaceX can carry out 4 flights from SLC between Sept 18 and Oct 5.

I wouldn't mind a FH getting a confirmed date (soon).  It's been too long, far too long!

Superheavy + Starship the final push to launch commit!

Offline crandles57

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #801 on: 09/21/2022 01:11 pm »
Nextspaceflight
https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/?search=SpaceX

has booster B1073.4 for 4-35
and B1062.10 for 4-36

This seems somewhat out of normal rotation. Is something wrong/planned or whatever for B1051, B1060 & B1061 ?

Offline crandles57

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #802 on: 09/21/2022 03:23 pm »
SLC-40 is going to have to keep up a packed pace to get in these Starlink flights before the next Crew flight and with SLS looking for an opportunity.

I will be very impressed if SpaceX can carry out 4 flights from SLC between Sept 18 and Oct 5.

Another possibility for fitting in 4-35 and 4-36 and still doing Galaxy 33 & 34 on 5th October would be if Artemis launch delays Crew-5 so ASOG can do the Galaxy landing & collection.

Offline gemmy0I

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #803 on: 09/21/2022 10:29 pm »
Nextspaceflight
https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/?search=SpaceX

has booster B1073.4 for 4-35
and B1062.10 for 4-36

This seems somewhat out of normal rotation. Is something wrong/planned or whatever for B1051, B1060 & B1061 ?
* 1051 and 1060 are two of the three leading-edge boosters (both currently at 13 flights, next will be 14th), and these have always taken longer to refurbish due to additional inspections - i.e. they are not part of the normal rotation. 1058.14 flew recently on Sep. 10, so presumably 1051 and 1060 will follow "soon" and fly whenever they feel they're ready (the timing and sequence of which is not strongly predictable from public information).

* 1061 was moved to the west coast last month and to my knowledge is still there, remaining as one of the (now) three boosters in "normal rotation" for the west coast (1061, 1063, and 1071).

Apart from these, 1073.4 and 1062.10 are indeed the next up in the normal East-coast rotation. 1073 is the "oldest", having last flown on Aug. 9; and 1062 is next, having last flown Aug. 19.

Going forward, the next in the eastern rotation should be 1069.3 (last flown Aug. 27), 1052.8 (last flown Sep. 4), and 1067.7 (last flown Sep. 18); after which the rotation should repeat with 1073.5, 1062.11, etc. The three leading-edge boosters (1051, 1058, and 1060) should continue to interrupt the normal rotation unpredictably on an "as ready" basis.

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #804 on: 09/24/2022 04:28 pm »

https://twitter.com/russianspaceweb/status/1573702585357328384

Quote
Hungary decided to fly its astronaut with the US-based Axiom space, instead of previous plans to utilize Russian #Soyuz. The mission is expected in 2025-2026, according to TASS, quoting Hungarian foreign minister.

Sounds like more Axiom Dragon flights after Ax-4, unless thereís going to be larger gaps between Axiom flights?

Offline zubenelgenubi

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #805 on: 09/26/2022 05:43 pm »
Kennedy LC-39A:
NET October 3 4 5    Crew-5
NET October 21        USSF-44  (no ASDS use)
November 18            SpX-26
December                  USSF-67

Canaveral SLC-40:
September 30 TBD  Starlink 4-36
October 7/8              Galaxy 33 and 34
October 14                Eutelsat Hotbird 13F
NET ~October 20     Starlink 4-36
~end of October      Starlink 4-37
<something else circa October 30?>
November 5              Galaxy 31 and 32

Vandenberg SLC-4E:
early October 3         Starlink 4-29
<another Starlink at the end of October?>
NET late October      Starlink 4-31

Edited multiple times.
« Last Edit: 10/09/2022 10:49 pm by zubenelgenubi »
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Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #806 on: 09/28/2022 08:32 pm »
https://twitter.com/brycespacetech/status/1575220556550619142

Quote
In Q2, @SpaceX led the global launch market, launching nearly 160,000 kilograms of upmass across 16 launches. 

Download the Q2 Bryce Briefing: https://bit.ly/2xwKd6D

#BryceBriefing #Space #Launch #SpaceX

Offline GWR64

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #807 on: 10/03/2022 12:46 pm »
2022-10-05  1200/-4   F9   1077   S   CCtCap Crew-5   LEO   .   C-39A   .   .
2022-10-06  1907/-4   F9   1060-14   .   Galaxy 33/34   GTO   .   C-40   .   .
2022-10-13*2325/-4   F9   1069-3   .   Hotbird 13F   GTO   4500   C-40   .   .

8.5 days gap between Crew-5 and Hotbird 13F, does that work with ASDS "Just Read the Instructions"?
« Last Edit: 10/03/2022 12:48 pm by GWR64 »

Online scr00chy

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #808 on: 10/03/2022 01:43 pm »
2022-10-05  1200/-4   F9   1077   S   CCtCap Crew-5   LEO   .   C-39A   .   .
2022-10-06  1907/-4   F9   1060-14   .   Galaxy 33/34   GTO   .   C-40   .   .
2022-10-13*2325/-4   F9   1069-3   .   Hotbird 13F   GTO   4500   C-40   .   .

8.5 days gap between Crew-5 and Hotbird 13F, does that work with ASDS "Just Read the Instructions"?

Yes, it's doable.

Offline Comga

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #809 on: 10/03/2022 10:45 pm »
2022-10-03  1656/-7   F9   1071-5   S   Starlink 4-29   LEO   ~16k   V   .   .
2022-10-05  1200/-4   F9   1077   S   CCtCap Crew-5   LEO   .   C-39A   .   .
2022-10-06  1907/-4   F9   1060-14   .   Galaxy 33/34   GTO   .   C-40   .   .
2022-10-13*2325/-4   F9   1069-3   .   Hotbird 13F   GTO   4500   C-40   .   .

(snip)

1 When was the last time, was there ever a time, when there were four launches on the manifest with dates and times?

2 The first entry needs to be updated to 2022-10-04 16:48/-7

3 Launching three days in a row!  (we hope) "Firing on all cylinders" Wow!

edit:  Jinxed it!
Quote
If launch of Crew-5 stays on track for October 5, we will stand down from tomorrow's launch attempt of the Starlink mission
— SpaceX (@SpaceX) October 3, 2022
https://twitter.com/spacex/status/1577072088241737733
« Last Edit: 10/03/2022 11:41 pm by Comga »
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #810 on: 10/04/2022 01:51 pm »
https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/10/for-most-science-missions-nasa-is-down-to-a-single-launch-provider/

Quote
SpaceX has been bidding against itself for NASAís science missions for awhile
"NASA is not able to share the number of bids."

by Eric Berger - Oct 4, 2022 1:10pm GMT

On Friday NASA closed the bidding process to select a launch vehicle for an upcoming Earth science mission to measure changes in sea level, Sentinel-6B. The mission is expected to launch into low Earth orbit about four years from now, and the space agency is finalizing its choice of a rocket.

With ULAís legacy rockers sold out - until Vulcan, New Glenn or something else, is proven:

Quote
at present, there are no other bidders for NASA's medium and large science missions beyond SpaceX and its fleet of Falcon rockets.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #811 on: 10/04/2022 01:54 pm »
Iím incredibly suspicious that thereís some true legal requirement that NASA canít share the number of bids. At some point ďbUT iTís pRoPrIetArYĒ needs to give way to basic transparency for the taxpayer.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Online DanClemmensen

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #812 on: 10/04/2022 02:36 pm »
https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/10/for-most-science-missions-nasa-is-down-to-a-single-launch-provider/

Quote
SpaceX has been bidding against itself for NASAís science missions for awhile
"NASA is not able to share the number of bids."

by Eric Berger - Oct 4, 2022 1:10pm GMT

On Friday NASA closed the bidding process to select a launch vehicle for an upcoming Earth science mission to measure changes in sea level, Sentinel-6B. The mission is expected to launch into low Earth orbit about four years from now, and the space agency is finalizing its choice of a rocket.

With ULAís legacy rockers sold out - until Vulcan, New Glenn or something else, is proven:

Quote
at present, there are no other bidders for NASA's medium and large science missions beyond SpaceX and its fleet of Falcon rockets.

The article is not as clear as it could be: There is only one bidder, SpaceX. That's because an LV must have flown at least once prior to the bid to be eligible to be bid. Vulcan, New Glenn, and Starship do not qualify. The remaining Antares (2), Atlas V (20) and Delta IV heavy (2), have already been committed to customers and cannot be bid for new missions since no more will be built. For any payload above 1.5 tonne, it's F9, FH, or nothing.

Offline freddo411

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #813 on: 10/04/2022 03:21 pm »
Iím incredibly suspicious that thereís some true legal requirement that NASA canít share the number of bids. At some point ďbUT iTís pRoPrIetArYĒ needs to give way to basic transparency for the taxpayer.

Yeah.   I smell BS too.

I can think of zero reason to withhold the number of bids.

Offline crandles57

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #814 on: 10/04/2022 03:59 pm »
Iím incredibly suspicious that thereís some true legal requirement that NASA canít share the number of bids. At some point ďbUT iTís pRoPrIetArYĒ needs to give way to basic transparency for the taxpayer.

Yeah.   I smell BS too.

I can think of zero reason to withhold the number of bids.

Suspicious?

Or is it more a case of SpaceX is offering reasonable prices despite the monopoly position so NASA feels it appropriate to decide 'let's not rock the boat'. If SpaceX was offering really high prices, then NASA would soon find ways to leak the number of bids and other tactics to embarrass SpaceX. So it seems to me that NASA not saying how many bids received suggests they are not too unhappy about the situation and prices being offered by SpaceX.

So perhaps it is an indicator that all is well rather than suspicious?

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #815 on: 10/04/2022 04:06 pm »
It's how NASA has been handling contracts in general, not just SpaceX launch contracts.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #816 on: 10/04/2022 04:24 pm »
It's how NASA has been handling contracts in general, not just SpaceX launch contracts.
Agreed. It has nothing to do with SpaceX, just NASA becoming increasingly resistant to share information for fear of getting yelled at.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #817 on: 10/04/2022 04:25 pm »
Iím incredibly suspicious that thereís some true legal requirement that NASA canít share the number of bids. At some point ďbUT iTís pRoPrIetArYĒ needs to give way to basic transparency for the taxpayer.

Yeah.   I smell BS too.

I can think of zero reason to withhold the number of bids.
This decision has nothing to do with SpaceX. This is on NASA.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Online DanClemmensen

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #818 on: 10/04/2022 07:09 pm »
From another thread:
At the risk of repeating a movie line... it's not entirely true. I'm still hearing a 5th crew capsule is under construction at Hawthorne. Whether they decide to move ahead with full build of it could be different of course but I suspect they'd like to have an extra one around that is just not long from finished so they can put it in the fleet in a "just in case" scenario.

We'll see though, not the same certification requirements for crew or cargo so re-certification may be harder past 5 flights for crew capsules than cargo. All of this is of course not really related to Crew-5...
Sorry about the off-topic. Replying at
   https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=52191.0
I have exact;y zero inside information. The latest I know of is:
   https://www.reuters.com/lifestyle/science/exclusive-spacex-ending-production-flagship-crew-capsule-executive-2022-03-28/

The capsule under construction, C211(?), appears to be a Cargo Dragon.

Online Alexphysics

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #819 on: 10/04/2022 07:15 pm »
From another thread:
At the risk of repeating a movie line... it's not entirely true. I'm still hearing a 5th crew capsule is under construction at Hawthorne. Whether they decide to move ahead with full build of it could be different of course but I suspect they'd like to have an extra one around that is just not long from finished so they can put it in the fleet in a "just in case" scenario.

We'll see though, not the same certification requirements for crew or cargo so re-certification may be harder past 5 flights for crew capsules than cargo. All of this is of course not really related to Crew-5...
Sorry about the off-topic. Replying at
   https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=52191.0
I have exact;y zero inside information. The latest I know of is:
   https://www.reuters.com/lifestyle/science/exclusive-spacex-ending-production-flagship-crew-capsule-executive-2022-03-28/

The capsule under construction, C211(?), appears to be a Cargo Dragon.

Yes there's also another cargo dragon under construction, the 3rd in the fleet.

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