SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread

[DanClemmensen]

SpaceX’s Tom Ochinero: trying to get to a little over 60 launches this year, and 100 next year. Includes 6 Falcon Heavy launches in next 12 months.

Interesting. SpaceX has already launched 41 times in 2022, and Wikipedia still shows an additional 27 planned launches, with references of variable quality. That would be 67 total for the year.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Falcon_9_and_Falcon_Heavy_launches

They are not going to get to 67 in 2022. Most any month so far 6, and if 6 in Oct to Dec that would be 63. Could possibly get 7 in one month but not in 4 consecutive months.

I am hoping for 62+ to make a third calendar year when SpaceX have doubled last years launches. With 2 or 3 falcon heavy launches and pad changeovers and more commercial and crew launches and fewer starlink launches 63 seems a stretch. So quite possible we don't get 62, in which case perhaps we will have to settle for more than doubling booster cores launched.

Wikipedia list uses NET dates - some will be delayed.

100 flights in 12 months is going to really stress the SpaceX Navy and ASDS'

I think it will be very hard with FH's, weather and only two ASDS' to hit 100 flights, unless Vandenberg really steps up to 24-36 flights.

Agreed. That's a crazy workload for the existing infrastructure even if it were magically leveled out to a steady twice-a-week routine. Your point is well taken. LH and Dragon missions disrupt the cadence, so the pace cannot be steady and the peaks will get crazier.

Unless the "100" includes quite a few Starships. These will add their own craziness, but will not impose the same load on the SpaceX navy or the F9 reuse team.

[crandles57]

100 flights in 12 months is going to really stress the SpaceX Navy and ASDS'

I think it will be very hard with FH's, weather and only two ASDS' to hit 100 flights, unless Vandenberg really steps up to 24-36 flights.

A few possible routes to 100:

1. Get operational licence for starlink after 6 test flights by end October 2023 and fly Starship a dozen times in Nov and Dec. So 6+12 Starship + 60 from Florida + 22 VSFB

2. 60 Falcon 9 Florida (regulation limit) + 4 Falcon Heavy + 30 VSFB + 6 Starship test flight

Route 2 would stress ASDS and maritime crews but for route 1 it isn't all that much of a step up for them from what they are doing recently from Florida.

Hah, Dan beat me to this

[crandles57]

Navy   They are doing battle with the seas and those pesky boosters that want to fall over I suppose.

[wannamoonbase]

Navy   They are doing battle with the seas and those pesky boosters that want to fall over I suppose.

Taking direct hits weekly.

[oldAtlas_Eguy]

100 flights in 12 months is going to really stress the SpaceX Navy and ASDS'

I think it will be very hard with FH's, weather and only two ASDS' to hit 100 flights, unless Vandenberg really steps up to 24-36 flights.

A few possible routes to 100:

1. Get operational licence for starlink after 6 test flights by end October 2023 and fly Starship a dozen times in Nov and Dec. So 6+12 Starship + 60 from Florida + 22 VSFB

2. 60 Falcon 9 Florida (regulation limit) + 4 Falcon Heavy + 30 VSFB + 6 Starship test flight

Route 2 would stress ASDS and maritime crews but for route 1 it isn't all that much of a step up for them from what they are doing recently from Florida.

Hah, Dan beat me to this

Question please cite the F9 Florida regulation limit. As far as I know there is no such limit. Any limits are due to practicle items of SpaceX Navy, assets, TEs, HIF space for processing the next booster US in line for the next launch, boosters available to launch, and other odds and ends. The Range can obviously support at a max rate launches at 12 hours apart, but only with AFTS that the F9/FH/Starship has. Which means that irregardless of how often SpaceX does launches they can accommodate other launchers launches without much difficulty except the big guys like SLS.

VSFB has shown an average sustained seperation between launches over the last 4 launches of ~17 days. So it is possible even right now to support 20+ launches from VSFB. But Starship launches of ~5 testlike launches from BC and some number from 39A is an unknown. A NOTE here is that to do the operational Starlink launches with Starship will need 39A in the short term until offshore pads are placed at locations that have wider launch inclinations that include most of the inclinations needed by Starlink: 53, 70, SSO.

The goal for this year was 70+ but the actual will be much closer to 60. The goal now for 2023 is 100 but the actual may end being much like this year at ~85. An increase of around 20 launches next year, especially with Starship launches occuring and more VSFB launch such that more of the current SSO launches happening at LC-40, 39A is transferred all to VSFB that will increase VSFB totals by 6 to 10. Which would then may not need much of a launch increase of F9 from LC-40 and 39A that occured this year of an average of 5/month. Giving a average launches per month of 7 F9/FH / month or ~ 84 with some number of Starship launches.

[OceanCat]

I was curious how many launches are needed to complete Starlink shell 4 so I counted the planes. Half of shell 4 is completely operational now. In the other half:

* 6 full planes
* 18 targeted planes
* 1 half targeted plane (only 13 satellites are on the way)
* Remaining planes: 11.5

Number of remaining launches assuming 54 satellites per launch and 20 satellites per plane: 4.25. 5 launches are needed to complete the shell. G4-37 in October is the last launch.

[crandles57]

Question please cite the F9 Florida regulation limit. As far as I know there is no such limit.

Their environmental assessment was worked out for up to 60 Falcon 9 and 10 Falcon heavy from Florida:

https://www.faa.gov/space/environmental/nepa_docs/media/SpaceX_Falcon_Program_Draft_EA_508.pdf

I understood they were only allowed to launch up to this number, but it is possible that I am incorrect about that.

A question in return: Where does your "The goal for this year was 70+" come from?

I was only aware of numbers of 52 and 60 from
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/27/elon-musks-spacex-planning-for-record-52-launches-in-2022.html Jan 22
and
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1508540042817376256 60 late March

[kevin-rf]

https://spacenews.com/space-development-agencys-first-launch-slips-due-to-supply-chain-setbacks/

Space Development Agency’s first launch slips due to supply chain setbacks
by Sandra Erwin — September 14, 2022

SDA's second batch of Tranche 0 is still on track to launch in March

WASHINGTON — The first launch of the Space Development Agency’s low Earth orbit satellites that had been scheduled for late September is slipping to no earlier than mid-December.

Wonder if this will clear the way for an additional starlink launch in the near term.

[oldAtlas_Eguy]

Question please cite the F9 Florida regulation limit. As far as I know there is no such limit.

Their environmental assessment was worked out for up to 60 Falcon 9 and 10 Falcon heavy from Florida:

https://www.faa.gov/space/environmental/nepa_docs/media/SpaceX_Falcon_Program_Draft_EA_508.pdf

I understood they were only allowed to launch up to this number, but it is possible that I am incorrect about that.

A question in return: Where does your "The goal for this year was 70+" come from?

I was only aware of numbers of 52 and 60 from
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/27/elon-musks-spacex-planning-for-record-52-launches-in-2022.html Jan 22
and
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1508540042817376256 60 late March

You may be correct on the Musk quotes on 2022 launches at 60 and I was off by what I remember.

Thanks for the Draft EA stating 60 F9 and 10 FH. But question what was in the final EA. And has there been another one since then that has changed the numbers? Will require some diggig by both of us to find the truth as to what it really is.

But even if it was the numbers you quote and the amount of FH predicted in 2023 being 6. Gets to 66 out of the cape. Then add about 18-20 out of VSFB. I will be surprised if it is more than 20. That is 86. Which gets to the more likely number range for what will happen in 2023 until Starship launch rates start ramping up significantly.

ADDED:
https://www.faa.gov/sites/faa.gov/files/space/environmental/nepa_docs/SpaceX_Falcon_Program_Final_EA_and_FONSI.pdf

This seems to indicate that the FONSI would support SpaceX being able to expand the total aggregate launches to more than the 70 listed of 10 FH and 60 F9 or 70 F9 and 0 FH. Note is that in this attached draft that 70 value is based on estimates for 39A that was 10 FH and 10 F9 but this year is already past 14 F9 launches on 39A. So that likely there is some restriction on the FH numbers (maybe but maybe not) and an estimate of an aggregate amount of 70 for which the analysis included for which the EA was completed.

Also in addition to this active EA there is also now an EA for Starship on 39A but I have not found yet. Will have to look for it.

All of this does indeed support the 100 number for 2023 as possible without really any new EAs.

[crandles57]

But even if it was the numbers you quote and the amount of FH predicted in 2023 being 6. Gets to 66 out of the cape.

I thought the 6 was in the next year from now but 2 or 3 of those could be in 2022. However, maybe there are more for late 2023 so it is still 6 for 2023?

[jpo234]

But even if it was the numbers you quote and the amount of FH predicted in 2023 being 6. Gets to 66 out of the cape.

I thought the 6 was in the next year from now but 2 or 3 of those could be in 2022. However, maybe there are more for late 2023 so it is still 6 for 2023?

Here is the quote:

SpaceX’s Tom Ochinero: trying to get to a little over 60 launches this year, and 100 next year. Includes 6 Falcon Heavy launches in next 12 months.

That's different from 6 FH launches in 2023...

See https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/1569703705527599104

[Chinakpradhan]

I was curious how many launches are needed to complete Starlink shell 4 so I counted the planes. Half of shell 4 is completely operational now. In the other half:

* 6 full planes
* 18 targeted planes
* 1 half targeted plane (only 13 satellites are on the way)
* Remaining planes: 11.5

Number of remaining launches assuming 54 satellites per launch and 20 satellites per plane: 4.25. 5 launches are needed to complete the shell. G4-37 in October is the last launch.

i am thinking as to how big the starlink v1.5 group 4 subconstellation is? Both group 1 and 4 were proposed to have 1584 sats but group 1 ended up having 1725 sats.

Now considering 4-37 as the last serial no. Of group 4 and counting all auched manifested (by 54 on each florida and 53 on each california launch) we are only left with 57 more sats to be launched.

Now here's the problem till 4-37, we have 6 yet to be known missions (4-24,4-28,4-30,4-31,4-32,4-33) if you launch them the sum will go to ~1986 far more that proposed 1584!!!!

Is spacex allowed to launch 400 more sats than its proposal??

[AmigaClone]

I was curious how many launches are needed to complete Starlink shell 4 so I counted the planes. Half of shell 4 is completely operational now. In the other half:

* 6 full planes
* 18 targeted planes
* 1 half targeted plane (only 13 satellites are on the way)
* Remaining planes: 11.5

Number of remaining launches assuming 54 satellites per launch and 20 satellites per plane: 4.25. 5 launches are needed to complete the shell. G4-37 in October is the last launch.

i am thinking as to how big the starlink v1.5 group 4 subconstellation is? Both group 1 and 4 were proposed to have 1584 sats but group 1 ended up having 1725 sats.

Now considering 4-37 as the last serial no. Of group 4 and counting all auched manifested (by 54 on each florida and 53 on each california launch) we are only left with 57 more sats to be launched.

Now here's the problem till 4-37, we have 6 yet to be known missions (4-24,4-28,4-30,4-31,4-32,4-33) if you launch them the sum will go to ~1986 far more that proposed 1584!!!!

Is spacex allowed to launch 400 more sats than its proposal??

SpaceX like other operators of constellations is allowed to launch some on-orbit spares. I seem to recall something like 2 spares per plane (144 total on-orbit spares for Group 4).

At this time, SpaceX has 1263 total working Group 4 Starlink satellites. That means another 321 Starlinks would need to be launched to meet the proposed number, not counting any on-orbit spares for Group 4.

Basically, six or seven more Starlink launches would complete Group 4 according to the proposal. Another two or three launches would put the on-orbit spares in place. Note that the number of rideshares in the remaining V1.5 launches for Group 4 could lead to a tenth Starlink V1.5 Group 4 to complete the group with the planned number of spares.

[scr00chy]

Both group 1 and 4 were proposed to have 1584 sats but group 1 ended up having 1725 sats.

Huh? There are only 1516 Group 1 sats in orbit. And only 1462 of them are an active part of the constellation.

[Chinakpradhan]

Both group 1 and 4 were proposed to have 1584 sats but group 1 ended up having 1725 sats.

Huh? There are only 1516 Group 1 sats in orbit. And only 1462 of them are an active part of the constellation.

you are dealing with present I dealed 1725 in past june 2021. 26 may 2021 was the last date of group 1 launch.
25*60 sat launch+2*58 sat launch+1*57 sat launch+1*52 sat launch=1725 sats in group 1 launched.

SpaceX like other operators of constellations is allowed to launch some on-orbit spares. I seem to recall something like 2 spares per plane (144 total on-orbit spares for Group 4).

At this time, SpaceX has 1263 total working Group 4 Starlink satellites. That means another 321 Starlinks would need to be launched to meet the proposed number, not counting any on-orbit spares for Group 4.

Basically, six or seven more Starlink launches would complete Group 4 according to the proposal. Another two or three launches would put the on-orbit spares in place. Note that the number of rideshares in the remaining V1.5 launches for Group 4 could lead to a tenth Starlink V1.5 Group 4 to complete the group with the planned number of spares.

so how many spares were there in group 1???

[soltasto]

Both group 1 and 4 were proposed to have 1584 sats but group 1 ended up having 1725 sats.

Huh? There are only 1516 Group 1 sats in orbit. And only 1462 of them are an active part of the constellation.

you are dealing with present I dealed 1725 in past june 2021. 26 may 2021 was the last date of group 1 launch.
25*60 sat launch+2*58 sat launch+1*57 sat launch+1*52 sat launch=1725 sats in group 1 launched.

By that time many Starlink v1.0 satellites were in the process of getting deorbited or were deorbited already.
The number of satellites in the constellation (at the allowed altitudes and inclinations) that is present in the FCC documents is what they can effectively use for communication with ground users, satellites that have to be placed in specific orbital slots to keep global coverage. Those are not the total number of satellites they get to launch, as they are allowed to launch infinitely more for the replenish process.

By the way, currently SpaceX decided to use les capacity for the Group 1 shell: As you may find on https://starlink.sx/ Group 1 has 72 shells of 18 active satellites plus spares, a number that was changed from 20 active satellites plus spares to reach the market faster and is apparently good enough.

Chinakpradhan, I also noticed that you made this change to 1725 on wikipedia without any real source but your calculation, which is not correct. I advise you to undo that change as that is not what is written in the source document.

[crandles57]

I have attempted to clarify wikipedia.

It seems Chinakpradhan was interpreting the "satellites" heading to mean "satellites launched". Whereas, at least some of us think the more natural interpretation is "authorised initial deployment number of satellites".

I therefore reverted to 1584 and changed the heading to "authorised initial deployment number of satellites" to try to avoid any such confusion.

This appears to me to be a good faith misinterpretation.

[Chinakpradhan]

I have attempted to clarify wikipedia.

It seems Chinakpradhan was interpreting the "satellites" heading to mean "satellites launched". Whereas, at least some of us think the more natural interpretation is "authorised initial deployment number of satellites".

I therefore reverted to 1584 and changed the heading to "authorised initial deployment number of satellites" to try to avoid any such confusion.

This appears to me to be a good faith misinterpretation.

i dont want to discuss about wikipedia here at nsf but its true, i interpreted the "satellites" heading to mean "satellites launched" (more clearly i thought it as authorised number of satellites)(sorry for that). Based on that only i wrote half completion as, "3 March 2022 with Group 4-9". So what the actual half completion?? I need it for my and the wikipedia database.

[zubenelgenubi]

Mostly, confirmation 👍 of known information:
SFN, Live coverage: SpaceX scrubs Starlink launch attempt for third day in a row, September 15

The Starlink 4-34 mission will be the third of as many as six Falcon 9 missions on SpaceX’s schedule this month. Tom Ochinero, SpaceX’s vice president of commercial sales, said Tuesday at the World Satellite Business Week conference in Paris that the company aims to complete more than 60 launches this year, with the goal of 100 rocket missions in 2023, continuing a dramatic uptick in SpaceX’s launch cadence.
<snip>
SpaceX began flying 54 Starlink satellites on dedicated Falcon 9 flights last month, one more spacecraft than the company typically launched on previous missions. SpaceX has experimented with different engine throttle settings and other minor changes to stretch the Falcon 9’s performance.

September launches:
Starlink 4-20
Starlink 4-2
Starlink 4-34
Starlink 4-35
Starlink 4-36
Starlink 4-29?

Apparently, 54 Starlink satellites per Group 4 launch is the new normal. 🛰

[crandles57]

Tom Ochinero, SpaceX’s vice president of commercial sales, said Tuesday

September launches:
Starlink 4-20
Starlink 4-2
Starlink 4-34
Starlink 4-35
Starlink 4-36
Starlink 4-29?

We learned Wed 14th of SDA T&T tranche 1 flight 1 delay from 29th Oct to mid Dec. So I am not sure this helps in figuring out whether 4-29 may or may not be brought forward into that slot. OTOH people in the know may have known more earlier?