Author Topic: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread  (Read 285982 times)

Offline wannamoonbase

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #760 on: 08/31/2022 10:05 pm »
5 more Crew Dragon flights

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/nasa-orders-five-more-astronaut-204550265.html

Crew Dragon has become a cash money machine for SpaceX.
« Last Edit: 08/31/2022 10:27 pm by gongora »
Superheavy + Starship the final push to launch commit!

Online DanClemmensen

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #761 on: 08/31/2022 11:02 pm »
I dont know how many Starship flights are possible. Boca Chica is only permitted for 5/year after the 3 experimental... so if 1 is this year then no more than 7 from BC in 2023, right?

They are already building the launch tower in Florida though...
Yea, they are expecting (okay, TRYING) to fly from Florida very, very soon. Most certainly in 2023.

but TBH, if they get more than 6 total Starship orbital flights in 2023, I’ll be surprised because it just takes time to ramp such things up.

They’re also trying to get approvals for more launch pads in Florida, and doubtless will try for more in South Texas.
They don't need more launch pads, except for redundancy, because one pad can launch at least once a day. What they need is permission for more launches.

Offline zubenelgenubi

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #762 on: 09/01/2022 05:59 am »
SFN SpaceX closes out quartet of Starlink launches from Vandenberg, August 31:
Quote
SpaceX’s Starlink 3-4 mission was the fourth straight launch from Vandenberg since July 10 to haul satellites into “Group 3” of the Starlink constellation. The 184 satellites launched on those four missions are enough to fill more than half of the slots in Group 3, which will eventually contain 348 satellites in polar orbit.

Quote
SpaceX is expected to take a pause from Group 3 launches for at least the next few months.

Which might contradict this statement from NSF SpaceX nails 150th Falcon recovery attempt on Starlink Group 3-4, also August 31:
Quote
Because of the small size of this shell, it is expected that it will be filled in fewer than 10 Falcon 9 launches, and could be completed by the end of 2022.

The next Vandenberg Starlink launch is a Group 4 launch; NET September 25:
1496-EX-ST-2022
Mission 1791 Starlink Group 4-29 from SLC-4E, Vandenberg
NET late September
ASDS North  29  47  54   West  116  40  39
My deduction is Starlink 4-29 launch is NET October.
« Last Edit: 09/02/2022 06:21 pm by zubenelgenubi »
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Offline zubenelgenubi

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #763 on: 09/01/2022 06:34 am »
Up to 100 orbital flights in 2023:
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1564994769826172929
Quote
Eric Berger @SciGuySpace
SpaceX launched its 39th rocket of 2022 last night from Vandenberg Space Force Base. The company has now launched a Falcon 9 every 6.2 days this year, putting them on pace for a total of 55 to 60. I've heard the company's goal is 100 orbital flights next year.
Quote
Elon Musk @elonmusk
Yeah, aiming for up to 100 flights next year.
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Offline scr00chy

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #764 on: 09/01/2022 01:18 pm »
Next Spaceflight lists the Starlink 4-24 launch for December 2022. I wonder if it's the Lynk rideshare that was discovered last year.

Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #765 on: 09/01/2022 02:43 pm »
when is group 5 starting or group 2 restarting?
« Last Edit: 09/01/2022 02:44 pm by Chinakpradhan »

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #766 on: 09/01/2022 03:44 pm »
Next Spaceflight lists the Starlink 4-24 launch for December 2022. I wonder if it's the Lynk rideshare that was discovered last year.

Most recent Lynk schedule:

Offline scr00chy

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #767 on: 09/01/2022 04:44 pm »
Next Spaceflight lists the Starlink 4-24 launch for December 2022. I wonder if it's the Lynk rideshare that was discovered last year.

Most recent Lynk schedule:

Thanks! Do we know if any of them are still planned for mid-inclination?

Offline AmigaClone

Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #768 on: 09/01/2022 04:50 pm »
when is group 5 starting or group 2 restarting?

Personal Speculation:

I can see SpaceX starting to launch Starlink satellites to Shell 5 as soon as they finish launching Shell 3. Note that Shell 5 has the same inclination and altitude as shell 3 so I suspect that Starlink 3-8 (which would complete Shell 3) might have a group of Starlinks destined for Shell 5. Shell 5 is comprised of 172 Starlink satellites so it would only need 4 launches to be completed.

As for Shell 2, I suspect that might have to wait until SpaceX finishes Shell 4 - the later needing about 8 launches. Shell 2 would in turn need about 14 launches.

Basically, only 30 launches are needed to complete the initial deployment of the current Starlink constellation.

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #769 on: 09/01/2022 05:02 pm »
Next Spaceflight lists the Starlink 4-24 launch for December 2022. I wonder if it's the Lynk rideshare that was discovered last year.

Most recent Lynk schedule:

Thanks! Do we know if any of them are still planned for mid-inclination?

I didn't notice anything saying they would change the inclinations from the initial filing.  I didn't look at every document filed, mostly focused on recent ones.
« Last Edit: 09/01/2022 05:04 pm by gongora »

Offline zubenelgenubi

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #770 on: 09/02/2022 06:38 pm »
September Falcon 9 launches:
5th, SLC-40: Starlink 4-20
10th, LC-39A: Starlink 4-2
NET 12th, SLC-40: Starlink 4-34
Mid/late, SLC-40: Starlink 4-35
Late, SLC-40: Starlink 4-36
NET 29th, SLC-4E: SDA Tracking Layer Tranche 0, Flight 1

October Falcon 9 and Heavy launches:
NET 3rd, LC-39A: Crew-5
8th, SLC-40: Galaxy 33 and 34 (launch due east)
17th, SLC-40?: Eutelsat Hotbird 13G
TBD, FH, LC-39A: USSF-44
TBD, SLC-4E: Starlink 4-29
Q4, SLC-40: WorldView Legion 1 and 2

Are the preparations for Crew-5 the cause for three consecutive Starlink launches from SLC-40?  Is it also part of the reason for launching Starlink 4-29 from Vandenberg?

Surprise!  USSF-44 launch moved forward:
SFN Launch Schedule, updated September 1:
October from LC-39A.

The October Hotbird would now (part of reason?) likely launch from SLC-40 because of this.

Some November launches may also launch from SLC-40 to accommodate the Falcon Heavy launch from LC-39A?  (Cargo Dragon SpX-26 launches from LC-39A on November 18.) 🐉 🐲 🀄
« Last Edit: 09/02/2022 06:43 pm by zubenelgenubi »
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Offline crandles57

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #771 on: 09/02/2022 09:51 pm »
So pad 39A has to look something like this to fit them all in

10 Sept Starlink 4-2
3 Oct Crew -5
Oct FHeavy USSF-44
late Oct/Early Nov? FHeavy ViaSat-3
18 Nov CRS-26
Dec? FHeavy USSF-67
Dec 22 IM-1
Dec? Polaris Dawn

With changing pad over to heavy and back, that seems a pretty full schedule for the pad. Only possible extra slot is ~Sept 20 unless anything is delayed. Is it even possible to fit all these in before the end of the year?

Offline AmigaClone

Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #772 on: 09/02/2022 10:45 pm »
September Falcon 9 launches:
5th, SLC-40: Starlink 4-20
10th, LC-39A: Starlink 4-2
NET 12th, SLC-40: Starlink 4-34
Mid/late, SLC-40: Starlink 4-35
Late, SLC-40: Starlink 4-36
NET 29th, SLC-4E: SDA Tracking Layer Tranche 0, Flight 1

October Falcon 9 and Heavy launches:
NET 3rd, LC-39A: Crew-5
8th, SLC-40: Galaxy 33 and 34 (launch due east)
17th, SLC-40?: Eutelsat Hotbird 13G
TBD, FH, LC-39A: USSF-44
TBD, SLC-4E: Starlink 4-29
Q4, SLC-40: WorldView Legion 1 and 2

Are the preparations for Crew-5 the cause for three consecutive Starlink launches from SLC-40?  Is it also part of the reason for launching Starlink 4-29 from Vandenberg?

Likely a combination of preparations for Crew-5, lack of payloads from outside customers being ready to launch, and wanting to balance a little the number of Starlink launches left to launch the initial 4408 Gen1 Starlink satellites.

Offline AmigaClone

Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #773 on: 09/02/2022 11:11 pm »
So pad 39A has to look something like this to fit them all in

10 Sept Starlink 4-2
3 Oct Crew -5
Oct FHeavy USSF-44
late Oct/Early Nov? FHeavy ViaSat-3
18 Nov CRS-26
Dec? FHeavy USSF-67
Dec 22 IM-1
Dec? Polaris Dawn

With changing pad over to heavy and back, that seems a pretty full schedule for the pad. Only possible extra slot is ~Sept 20 unless anything is delayed. Is it even possible to fit all these in before the end of the year?

SpaceX at one point had the goal of being able to do the conversion in about a week - possibly while the regular refurbishment is being done. We will soon see if that goal was realistic or not.

Offline scr00chy

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #774 on: 09/02/2022 11:34 pm »
So pad 39A has to look something like this to fit them all in

10 Sept Starlink 4-2
3 Oct Crew -5
Oct FHeavy USSF-44
late Oct/Early Nov? FHeavy ViaSat-3
18 Nov CRS-26
Dec? FHeavy USSF-67
Dec 22 IM-1
Dec? Polaris Dawn

With changing pad over to heavy and back, that seems a pretty full schedule for the pad. Only possible extra slot is ~Sept 20 unless anything is delayed. Is it even possible to fit all these in before the end of the year?

IM-1 slipped to January:
https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/1549794532182695936

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #775 on: 09/13/2022 03:12 pm »
https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/1569703705527599104

Quote
SpaceX’s Tom Ochinero: trying to get to a little over 60 launches this year, and 100 next year. Includes 6 Falcon Heavy launches in next 12 months.

Online DanClemmensen

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #776 on: 09/13/2022 03:48 pm »

Quote
SpaceX’s Tom Ochinero: trying to get to a little over 60 launches this year, and 100 next year. Includes 6 Falcon Heavy launches in next 12 months.
Interesting. SpaceX has already launched 41 times in 2022, and Wikipedia still shows an additional 27 planned launches, with references of variable quality. That would be 67 total for the year.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Falcon_9_and_Falcon_Heavy_launches

Offline crandles57

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #777 on: 09/13/2022 04:14 pm »

Quote
SpaceX’s Tom Ochinero: trying to get to a little over 60 launches this year, and 100 next year. Includes 6 Falcon Heavy launches in next 12 months.
Interesting. SpaceX has already launched 41 times in 2022, and Wikipedia still shows an additional 27 planned launches, with references of variable quality. That would be 67 total for the year.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Falcon_9_and_Falcon_Heavy_launches

They are not going to get to 67 in 2022. Most any month so far 6, and if 6 in Oct to Dec that would be 63. Could possibly get 7 in one month but not in 4 consecutive months.

I am hoping for 62+ to make a third calendar year when SpaceX have doubled last years launches. With 2 or 3 falcon heavy launches and pad changeovers and more commercial and crew launches and fewer starlink launches 63 seems a stretch. So quite possible we don't get 62, in which case perhaps we will have to settle for more than doubling booster cores launched.

Wikipedia list uses NET dates - some will be delayed.

Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #778 on: 09/13/2022 04:32 pm »

Quote
SpaceX’s Tom Ochinero: trying to get to a little over 60 launches this year, and 100 next year. Includes 6 Falcon Heavy launches in next 12 months.
Interesting. SpaceX has already launched 41 times in 2022, and Wikipedia still shows an additional 27 planned launches, with references of variable quality. That would be 67 total for the year.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Falcon_9_and_Falcon_Heavy_launches

They are not going to get to 67 in 2022. Most any month so far 6, and if 6 in Oct to Dec that would be 63. Could possibly get 7 in one month but not in 4 consecutive months.

I am hoping for 62+ to make a third calendar year when SpaceX have doubled last years launches. With 2 or 3 falcon heavy launches and pad changeovers and more commercial and crew launches and fewer starlink launches 63 seems a stretch. So quite possible we don't get 62, in which case perhaps we will have to settle for more than doubling booster cores launched.

Wikipedia list uses NET dates - some will be delayed.
if any mission has good ref telling about a launch in 2022. wikipedia lists it in 2022. if strong ref is there for slip into 2023, it will soon move them to 2023.

Offline wannamoonbase

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #779 on: 09/13/2022 05:19 pm »

Quote
SpaceX’s Tom Ochinero: trying to get to a little over 60 launches this year, and 100 next year. Includes 6 Falcon Heavy launches in next 12 months.
Interesting. SpaceX has already launched 41 times in 2022, and Wikipedia still shows an additional 27 planned launches, with references of variable quality. That would be 67 total for the year.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Falcon_9_and_Falcon_Heavy_launches

They are not going to get to 67 in 2022. Most any month so far 6, and if 6 in Oct to Dec that would be 63. Could possibly get 7 in one month but not in 4 consecutive months.

I am hoping for 62+ to make a third calendar year when SpaceX have doubled last years launches. With 2 or 3 falcon heavy launches and pad changeovers and more commercial and crew launches and fewer starlink launches 63 seems a stretch. So quite possible we don't get 62, in which case perhaps we will have to settle for more than doubling booster cores launched.

Wikipedia list uses NET dates - some will be delayed.

100 flights in 12 months is going to really stress the SpaceX Navy and ASDS'

I think it will be very hard with FH's, weather and only two ASDS' to hit 100 flights, unless Vandenberg really steps up to 24-36 flights.
Superheavy + Starship the final push to launch commit!

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