Author Topic: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread  (Read 238257 times)

Offline wannamoonbase

  • Elite Veteran
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4799
  • Denver, CO
    • U.S. Metric Association
  • Liked: 2531
  • Likes Given: 3232
Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #720 on: 07/26/2022 07:11 pm »
Also demand for that many flights is a consideration.  Pretty soon SpaceX will have the currently approved Starlink network complete.  What will they be delivering to orbit with F9/FH if the 2nd Gen Starlink will fly exclusively on Starship?


As of today 26 July 2022 14:40 SpaceX has approval for two phases totaling 11926 Starlink satellites.

Phase 1 is nearly 60% complete and will require roughly 36 launches totaling 1732 satellites to complete.

Phase 2 is has not been started. It will require roughly 3750 satellites to be launched by November 2024. Depending on the Starlink version that would involve 75 F9 Starlink 1.5 launches or between 50 and 75 Starlink 2.0 Starship launches (using between 50 and 80 satellites per Starship).

One possible limit on haw many F9 launches are needed in a year would be the number of Starlinks manufactured a month even if some of the shells are initially filled with Starlink 1.5.

I was looking at that yesterday.  The phase 2 quantities and date of having half deployed by Nov 2024 would seem to explain a huge urgency for Starship and getting it functional.

Pending when and how Starship testing goes perhaps we will see 2 more years of aggressive F9 flights cadence.

The number of Starlinks on orbit is not the kind of thing that can be made up easily if they fell behind.

An important question/assumption is if all the Phase 2 satellites are intended to be the larger V2 type or if SpaceX could keep flying V1.5 and do a partial deployment of smaller satellites until Starship is reliably deploying satellites?
Superheavy + Starship the final push to launch commit!

Online gongora

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 9096
  • US
  • Liked: 11346
  • Likes Given: 5064
Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #721 on: 07/26/2022 07:36 pm »
I was looking at that yesterday.  The phase 2 quantities and date of having half deployed by Nov 2024 would seem to explain a huge urgency for Starship and getting it functional.

Starlink Gen2 hasn't been approved and has no deadline yet.  The 2024 deadline is meaningless if they don't intend to actually build that constellation (V-band).
« Last Edit: 07/26/2022 07:36 pm by gongora »

Offline AmigaClone

Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #722 on: 07/27/2022 08:13 pm »
Just to clarify.
Quote
Starlink Gen1 - is the currently approved portion of Starlink. It has two portions.
Quote
Phase 1 with 5 orbital shells currently about 60% of the planned satellites are in orbit (2616 our of 4408) It needs 38 launches and could be completed, as early as a year before its 'halfway mark' date of April 2024. At that point, Shell 1 would be comprised (at least mostly) of Starlink V1.0, while the other three will be comprised of Starlink 1.5

Quote
The closest thing that I have seen to something official about SpaceX's plans for Phase 2 is a comment along the line that changes made to Phase 1 would not affect the approved V-band satellites or the proposed constellation. That would include 7500 satellites in 3 shells. If launched, it likely would be launched using Falcon 9s to meet the deadline of having half the constellation in orbit by November 2024.

Quote
Starlink Gen2 - Is a proposed 30,000 satellite constellation that has not yet been approved by the FCC. This would use Starlink 2.x and need to be launched via a Starship. Due to the physical size of Starship 2.0, I guestimate only 50-80 satellites are likely to be launched at a time, likely closer to the lower range.


Online gongora

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 9096
  • US
  • Liked: 11346
  • Likes Given: 5064
Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #723 on: 08/01/2022 10:28 pm »

Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #724 on: 08/05/2022 08:28 am »
Elon Musk on Full Send Podcast youtube channel
"in the next 12 months we will probably do 60-70 launches  (starlink).. maybe more"-27:00
« Last Edit: 08/05/2022 08:30 am by Clavin »

Offline wannamoonbase

  • Elite Veteran
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4799
  • Denver, CO
    • U.S. Metric Association
  • Liked: 2531
  • Likes Given: 3232
Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #725 on: 08/09/2022 02:47 pm »
https://news.yahoo.com/northrop-grumman-taps-firefly-aerospace-191825721.html

SpaceX is creating a market and adding sales by having the ability to launch frequently.

Being able to easily pick up flights at a competitive price and provide a requested schedule is amazing compared to where the industry has ever been.

It's going to be fun seeing how the entire industry develops in the next 5 years or so.
Superheavy + Starship the final push to launch commit!

Online crandles57

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 314
  • Sychdyn
  • Liked: 165
  • Likes Given: 70
Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #726 on: 08/09/2022 03:17 pm »
Quote
A Northrop spokeswoman told Reuters that the company purchased three Falcon 9 launches from Elon Musk's SpaceX to launch Cygnus capsules to the space station while Antares 330 is under development. Those Falcon 9 missions will launch in late 2023 and 2024.

https://www.reuters.com/lifestyle/science/northrop-taps-rocket-startup-firefly-replace-antares-russian-engines-2022-08-08/

Who thinks it will be developed on time so that no further SpaceX launches for Cygnus will be required?

If SpaceX is launching both Dragons and Cygnus, will NASA tend to favour Dragon as there is less independent supplier about Cygnus or will NASA want to help maintain/return to being an independent supplier?


Online DanClemmensen

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2478
  • California
  • Liked: 1904
  • Likes Given: 735
Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #727 on: 08/09/2022 03:41 pm »
Quote
A Northrop spokeswoman told Reuters that the company purchased three Falcon 9 launches from Elon Musk's SpaceX to launch Cygnus capsules to the space station while Antares 330 is under development. Those Falcon 9 missions will launch in late 2023 and 2024.

https://www.reuters.com/lifestyle/science/northrop-taps-rocket-startup-firefly-replace-antares-russian-engines-2022-08-08/

Who thinks it will be developed on time so that no further SpaceX launches for Cygnus will be required?

If SpaceX is launching both Dragons and Cygnus, will NASA tend to favour Dragon as there is less independent supplier about Cygnus or will NASA want to help maintain/return to being an independent supplier?
I doubt NASA will favor Dragon.  Cygnus and Cargo dragon have different capabilities. Cygnus uses the ISS berthing port, which can handle slightly larger cargo.  Cargo Dragon uses the docking port and therefore competes for this resource with CCP flights. Cygnus has demonstrated the ability to reboost (and possibly desat?) the ISS, while Dragons would have difficulties with this.

Online Alexphysics

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1249
  • Spain
  • Liked: 3759
  • Likes Given: 830
Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #728 on: 08/09/2022 04:00 pm »
Quote
A Northrop spokeswoman told Reuters that the company purchased three Falcon 9 launches from Elon Musk's SpaceX to launch Cygnus capsules to the space station while Antares 330 is under development. Those Falcon 9 missions will launch in late 2023 and 2024.

https://www.reuters.com/lifestyle/science/northrop-taps-rocket-startup-firefly-replace-antares-russian-engines-2022-08-08/

Who thinks it will be developed on time so that no further SpaceX launches for Cygnus will be required?

If SpaceX is launching both Dragons and Cygnus, will NASA tend to favour Dragon as there is less independent supplier about Cygnus or will NASA want to help maintain/return to being an independent supplier?
I doubt NASA will favor Dragon.  Cygnus and Cargo dragon have different capabilities. Cygnus uses the ISS berthing port, which can handle slightly larger cargo.  Cargo Dragon uses the docking port and therefore competes for this resource with CCP flights. Cygnus has demonstrated the ability to reboost (and possibly desat?) the ISS, while Dragons would have difficulties with this.

Cygnus can't load larger cargo than Dragon because Cygnus hatch is smaller than the size of the CBM hatch. TMK only HTV and Dragon 1 had hatches as big as the CBM hatch and neither are flying now.

Offline JayWee

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 759
  • Liked: 702
  • Likes Given: 1145
Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #729 on: 08/09/2022 04:29 pm »
Dunno if this thread is the correct one:

https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/1557034116960268288

Quote from: Jeff Foust/SpaceX
SpaceX’s Jarrod McLachlan says the Transporter rideshare missions are fully booked for 2023 and getting full for 2024. But some movement in the manifest allows them to squeeze in latecomers.

He adds that the company is working on rideshare configurations for Starship, but nothing to announce today.
« Last Edit: 08/09/2022 04:29 pm by JayWee »

Offline zubenelgenubi

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8112
  • Arc to Arcturus, then Spike to Spica
  • Sometimes it feels like Trantor in the time of Hari Seldon
  • Liked: 4785
  • Likes Given: 41180
Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #730 on: 08/10/2022 03:49 am »
I'm curious what satellite Mission 1451 corresponds to:
1278-EX-ST-2022
This STA is intended to cover final pre-launch RF verifications for a commercial spacecraft on Mission 1451. Test will be conducted inside the SpaceX Payload Processing Facility (PPF) at Cape Canaveral SFS using a ground-support antenna. Customer will transmit commands from the ground-support device and receive telemetry from the spacecraft to verify final flight configurations. This STA is not for flight operations.
NET October 25
Support your local planetarium! (COVID-panic and forward: Now more than ever.)
My current avatar is saying "i wants to go uppies!"

Online Zed_Noir

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4258
  • Canada
  • Liked: 1267
  • Likes Given: 1132
Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #731 on: 08/10/2022 07:51 am »
<snip>
.... TMK only HTV and Dragon 1 had hatches as big as the CBM hatch and neither are flying now.
Does the HTX have the full size CBM hatch?

Online gongora

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 9096
  • US
  • Liked: 11346
  • Likes Given: 5064
Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #732 on: 08/10/2022 02:05 pm »
Why are we dicussing the details of station resupply vehicles in this thread?  There are more appropriate places.

Online crandles57

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 314
  • Sychdyn
  • Liked: 165
  • Likes Given: 70
Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #733 on: 08/10/2022 02:49 pm »
On the manifest list, Vandenberg launches to shell 3 of 46 sats are listed at ~16k same as for 53 sat launches. That surely cannot be correct.

Online Alexphysics

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1249
  • Spain
  • Liked: 3759
  • Likes Given: 830
Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #734 on: 08/10/2022 10:10 pm »
If this is of any use... order of launches for August and first half of September was supposed to be

KPLO (already launched)
Starlink 4-26 (already launched)
Starlink 3-3 (currently scheduled for August 12th)
Starlink 4-27 (currently scheduled for August 16th)
Starlink 3-4
Starlink 4-23 (currently scheduled for August 24th)
Starlink 4-20
Starlink 4-2

I was and I'm still expecting 3-4 and 4-20 to be on for this month. Likely to have 3-4 around the 20th +- a couple of days and 4-20 could likely be anywhere from August 25th to 31st given pad turnaround times. But those are just guesses based on the expectation of those two happening this month. There's definitely room in the schedule for them.

Offline wjbarnett

Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #735 on: 08/11/2022 12:36 am »
Alex, how much does the BC surge draw resources away from this?
Jack

Online gongora

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 9096
  • US
  • Liked: 11346
  • Likes Given: 5064
Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #736 on: 08/11/2022 03:04 am »
On the manifest list, Vandenberg launches to shell 3 of 46 sats are listed at ~16k same as for 53 sat launches. That surely cannot be correct.

Even a lot of the shell 4 flights need the mass adjusted down, I'll do it sometime

Online Alexphysics

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1249
  • Spain
  • Liked: 3759
  • Likes Given: 830
Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #737 on: 08/11/2022 03:17 am »
Alex, how much does the BC surge draw resources away from this?

Little to none. This "surge" is mostly technical support rather than people being 24/7 hands on right there. Seems to have been overblown on the usual social media sites... sigh

Online FutureSpaceTourist

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 27654
  • UK
    • Plan 28
  • Liked: 51414
  • Likes Given: 22048
Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #738 on: 08/12/2022 11:49 am »
Not yet definite so putting in Discussion thread for now:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/exclusive-europe-eyes-spacex-fill-launch-void-left-by-russian-tensions-2022-08-12/

Quote
August 12, 20228:01 PM GMT+9
Last Updated 44 min ago
EXCLUSIVE Europe eyes Musk's SpaceX to replace Russian rockets
By Tim Hepher and Joey Roulette


PARIS, Aug 12 (Reuters) - The European Space Agency (ESA) has begun preliminary technical discussions with Elon Musk's SpaceX that could lead to the temporary use of its launchers after the Ukraine conflict blocked Western access to Russia's Soyuz rockets.

The private American competitor to Europe's Arianespace has emerged as a key contender to plug a temporary gap alongside Japan and India, but final decisions depend on the still unresolved timetable for Europe's delayed Ariane 6 rocket.

Offline wannamoonbase

  • Elite Veteran
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4799
  • Denver, CO
    • U.S. Metric Association
  • Liked: 2531
  • Likes Given: 3232
Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #739 on: 08/12/2022 02:08 pm »
On the manifest list, Vandenberg launches to shell 3 of 46 sats are listed at ~16k same as for 53 sat launches. That surely cannot be correct.

Even a lot of the shell 4 flights need the mass adjusted down, I'll do it sometime

Hey man, I just appreciate all the work done on the manifest thread.  It's one of my top morning go-to items.

Especially with this launch cadence, there's no idea what might pop up.
Superheavy + Starship the final push to launch commit!

Tags:
 

Advertisement NovaTech
Advertisement SkyTale Software GmbH
Advertisement Northrop Grumman
Advertisement
Advertisement Brady Kenniston
Advertisement NextSpaceflight
Advertisement Nathan Barker Photography
1