Author Topic: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread  (Read 240564 times)

Online zubenelgenubi

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #680 on: 06/03/2022 02:02 am »
There appears to be an open launch slot in mid June at SLC-40.

June 8  Nilesat-301
<open slot>
June 28  SES-22

Starlink 4-19 is currently scheduled for launch from LC-39A, (probably) ASAP after SpX-25 in mid June.

Other Starlink launches are NET July.  Starlink 4-20 is now NET September, previously end of June.

ASAP = As Soon As Possible
« Last Edit: 06/03/2022 02:07 am by zubenelgenubi »
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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #681 on: 06/03/2022 05:17 am »
Mission 1575, NE trajectory from Florida, NET early June
0788-EX-ST-2022

It seems some people out there are thinking this is something like ZUMA?
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Online zubenelgenubi

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #682 on: 06/10/2022 07:43 pm »
Will all July Falcon 9 launches be Starlink clusters, and nothing else?

I think so, 🤔 unless SARah 2 and 3 show up at Vandenberg in June for a July launch.  Every other payload is listed for August or later.

Starlink 4-21 and 4-22 from Florida, 3-1 and 3-2 from Vandenberg.

Seems a bit (SpaceX-y) sparse.

If a Galaxy pair ships 🚢 soon, maybe a 3rd Florida July launch?  (perhaps Q3 launch for Q4 in-service date)

Edit: I'm wrong; see below.  5 July Starlink launches scheduled.  + Starlink 4-25 from FL.
« Last Edit: 06/11/2022 06:02 pm by zubenelgenubi »
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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #683 on: 06/11/2022 02:26 pm »
Will all July Falcon 9 launches be Starlink clusters, and nothing else?

I think so, 🤔 unless SARah 2 and 3 show up at Vandenberg in June for a July launch.  Every other payload is listed for August or later.

Starlink 4-21 and 4-22 from Florida, 3-1 and 3-2 from Vandenberg.

Seems a bit (SpaceX-y) sparse.

If a Galaxy pair ships 🚢 soon, maybe a 3rd Florida July launch?  (perhaps Q3 launch for Q4 in-service date)
Isnt Starlink 4-25 scheduled for july? and given that they are targeting 6 launch per month cadence, i expect more launches to show up

Offline Mangala

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #684 on: 06/11/2022 05:54 pm »
Will all July Falcon 9 launches be Starlink clusters, and nothing else?

I think so, 🤔 unless SARah 2 and 3 show up at Vandenberg in June for a July launch.  Every other payload is listed for August or later.

Starlink 4-21 and 4-22 from Florida, 3-1 and 3-2 from Vandenberg.

Seems a bit (SpaceX-y) sparse.

If a Galaxy pair ships 🚢 soon, maybe a 3rd Florida July launch?  (perhaps Q3 launch for Q4 in-service date)

I'm not sure that this can explain a certain lack of launches from Florida in the Launch Manifest for July, but is it not usual that the range is closed for a few weeks each year, in summer, for maintenance?

Online zubenelgenubi

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #685 on: 06/11/2022 06:00 pm »
Will all July Falcon 9 launches be Starlink clusters, and nothing else?

I think so, 🤔 unless SARah 2 and 3 show up at Vandenberg in June for a July launch.  Every other payload is listed for August or later.

Starlink 4-21 and 4-22 from Florida, 3-1 and 3-2 from Vandenberg.

Seems a bit (SpaceX-y) sparse.

If a Galaxy pair ships 🚢 soon, maybe a 3rd Florida July launch?  (perhaps Q3 launch for Q4 in-service date)
Isnt Starlink 4-25 scheduled for july? and given that they are targeting 6 launch per month cadence, i expect more launches to show up
Re: Starlink 4-25: You are correct!  My mistake.  5 Starlink missions; 3 from Florida, 2 from Vandenberg.
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Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #686 on: 06/14/2022 11:10 pm »
Saw this FCC filing (SES-MOD-20220614-00645) for communication with Varuna spacecraft (0279-EX-CN-2022), which turns out to be the Sherpa-LTC that's scheduled to fly on a Starlink rideshare.  It's a V-band tech demo for Boeing, built by Astro Digital, with the Sherpa serving as the body of the satellite.  It will climb to the ~1050km, 54 degree orbit approved for the Boeing V-band constellation and be used for testing and demos.  The ODAR filed in March gave an August launch date and deployment at 280km, don't know if that is still the current plan.
« Last Edit: 06/14/2022 11:12 pm by gongora »

Offline wannamoonbase

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #687 on: 06/15/2022 03:05 pm »
With CRS-25 slipping to July 12, it appears there is a LC39A launch window open in late June early July.  Is there a Starlink to slip in there?
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Online Alexphysics

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #688 on: 06/15/2022 05:46 pm »
With CRS-25 slipping to July 12, it appears there is a LC39A launch window open in late June early July.  Is there a Starlink to slip in there?

Yes, Starlink 4-21 will take that slot

And no, it's not a guess, I have confirmation of this and in fact I was the one who changed it on next spaceflight.
« Last Edit: 06/15/2022 05:47 pm by Alexphysics »

Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #689 on: 06/22/2022 06:27 pm »
Given that Starlink 4-21 has been delayed to July 07. I think we are looking at  7 launches  in July with 6 launches in a month being the highest so far.
launches are Starlink 4-21, Starlink 3-1(VAB) ,CRS-25, Starlink 4-22, Starlink 4-25 , Starlink 3-2 (VAB) and mission 1066-EX-ST-2022  (https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=116424&RequestTimeout=1000). Comparing this to  https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/ leads me to believe that 1066-EX-ST-2022 is oneweb and will indeed launch in July. PLEASE CORRECT ME IF I AM WRONG I AM JUST AN AMATUAR
The main contributing factor in achieving 7 launches (F & FH) a month would be Multiple launches from VAB.
« Last Edit: 06/22/2022 06:29 pm by Clavin »

Online crandles57

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #690 on: 06/23/2022 01:55 am »
Given that Starlink 4-21 has been delayed to July 07. I think we are looking at  7 launches  in July with 6 launches in a month being the highest so far.


Those 7 launches may have NET July dates as far as we know at this stage. This doesn't mean there will be 7 launches in July. It may not be completely impossible but I am thinking it is unlikely. Minimum pad turnarounds were posted recently as 40 8 days 39A 9 days and VSFB 22 days.

So VSFB could do 2: 8th and ~30th but not a lot of room for slippage there.
Pad 40: 7th ~15th ~23rd has a few more spare days until 31st but 2 record low turnarounds in a row is unlikely. Eg ASDS crews may be willing to cut number of days off for one quick turnaround if they get a longer break afterward...
39A: well not sure when CRS-25 will be ready. Trip to ISS involves longer period of operation. It is not impossible for CRS-25 to be delayed to something like 20th July and be the only launch from 39A in July.

More likely to get in 7 in a month if the first launch (or 2 or 3) is in the first few days of the month rather than none until the 7th. No ISS trips following Hydrazine leak might also help.

FCC STA earliest date are clearly NET dates and are unlikely to hold this month: 4-22 start date of 10th July and 4-25 14th July are very unlikely due to pad/ASDS not being available. That could easily also be the case for 1066-EX-ST-2022 unless one of the Starlink launches is postponed until after that launch. 

Online zubenelgenubi

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #691 on: 06/24/2022 06:50 pm »
Cross-posts; this frees up LC-39A for other launches this year:
https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/1540394908720177152
Quote
NASA confirms Psyche will not launch in 2022.

From the teleconference: There will be a nice opportunity to launch in July 2023 and September 2023.
« Last Edit: 06/24/2022 06:54 pm by zubenelgenubi »
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Online DanClemmensen

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #692 on: 06/24/2022 07:19 pm »
Cross-posts; this frees up LC-39A for other launches this year:
Quote
NASA confirms Psyche will not launch in 2022.

From the teleconference: There will be a nice opportunity to launch in July 2023 and September 2023.

Arrrgh! Falcon Heavy is cursed!

It seems that all of the FH payloads slip. Is this simply an attribute of heavy payloads in general?

Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #693 on: 06/24/2022 07:36 pm »
Almost everything has been slipping the last couple years.

Offline BrianNH

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #694 on: 06/27/2022 12:24 pm »
The chart lists the weight of a Starlink batch at ~14mT, but Musk recently said that the newer ones weigh 16.25mT.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1505058886130311169

Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #695 on: 06/27/2022 01:53 pm »
16.25 Metric tones is the size of the Payload. We dont know whether that includes the payload adaptor ,Deployment rods etc.
IMO it probably does include those components, as that mass is orbital at the point of Deployment.

Also probably not the correct thread for this topic.

Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #696 on: 06/27/2022 03:25 pm »
Also probably not the correct thread for this topic.

It's a correction to the manifest table, it belongs in this thread.  (I had marked the March flight at 16t but never corrected the rest of them.)
« Last Edit: 06/27/2022 03:26 pm by gongora »

Online zubenelgenubi

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #697 on: 07/09/2022 05:30 pm »
August Falcon 9 launches

2nd, SLC-40: Danuri a.k.a. KPLO
Early?, SLC-4E: Starlink 3-2 July 21!
Early Late?, SLC-4E: Starlink 3-3
TBD, SLC-40: O3b mPower 1 & 2
9th, SLC-40: Starlink 4-26
Mid, Florida: Starlink 4-27
Mid?, SLC-4E: Starlink 3-4
Mid, Florida: Starlink 4-23
Late, Florida: Starlink 4-20

If BlueWalker 3 is a rideshare aboard Starlink 4-2, that launch is delayed to mid September.

Edited
« Last Edit: 07/28/2022 09:20 pm by zubenelgenubi »
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Offline ZachF

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #698 on: 07/14/2022 06:26 pm »
SpaceX must be getting pretty close to ULA’s 151 consecutive launch record.
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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #699 on: 07/14/2022 06:36 pm »
SpaceX must be getting pretty close to ULA’s 151 consecutive launch record.

Yes. SpaceX is at 138 right now.

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