SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread

[wannamoonbase]

Shame they don't have an extra West Coast barge. It would let SLC-4E achieve a launch tempo on par with SLC-40. With the lower commercial demand,  SLC-4E would also be mostly Starlink missions.

I love VSFB flights but I think they would run out of high inclination Starlink flights pretty quickly at that flight cadence. 

I think they currently are only licensed for 30 west coast lights per year.  Which has always seemed unattainable until recently.

[gongora]

I love VSFB flights but I think they would run out of high inclination Starlink flights pretty quickly at that flight cadence.

They appear to be planning mid-inclination Starlink deployments from Vandy

[zubenelgenubi]

Will there be "room" for a launch from LC-39A that does not require that launch complex, between USSF-52 and Crew-7?

However, Jupiter 3 could launch in August.  IM-1 launch is NET Q3.

[GewoonLukas_]

Will there be "room" for a launch from LC-39A that does not require that launch complex, between USSF-52 and Crew-7?

However, Jupiter 3 could launch in August.  IM-1 launch is NET Q3.

If EchoStar XXIV / Jupiter-3 wants to launch in August, it has to do so between USSF-52 and Crew-7 (=Early-August). Otherwise the turnaround will be too long and it will have to be delayed to NET September. That leaves no room for a regular Falcon 9 launch.

Edit:

NextSpaceflight (Updated ~June 9th)
Launch NET September 2023
https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/details/6944

With Jupiter-3 now NET September, SpaceX could possibly fit a single Falcon 9 launch between USSF-52 and Crew-7. Jupiter-3's delay will likely also impact Polaris Dawn (currently September), and delay it to NET Late-October due to Psyche taking priority in Early-October.

[Comga]

Will there be "room" for a launch from LC-39A that does not require that launch complex, between USSF-52 and Crew-7?

However, Jupiter 3 could launch in August.  IM-1 launch is NET Q3.

Similarly with

Ben Cooper's Launch Photography Viewing Guide, updated June 8:

A Falcon 9 will launch the Satria communications satellite for Indonesia from pad 40 on June 19, in the evening EDT

Ben Cooper's Launch Photography Viewing Guide, updated June 9:
June 19 5:54 pm EDT = 21:54 UTC

there is a seven day gap between Transporter 8 and Satria.
SpaceX's recent average gap is now half this, 3.6 days.
There are also over 17 days after Satria from LC-40 before USDD-52 from LC-39A.
Is this enough time to convert LC-39A from Heavy to single stick and back, to fit in another Starlink launch?
(Could they just move the two outermost, side hold-downs and leave the four outer front and back holddowns in place?)

[SpeakertoAnimals]

Will there be "room" for a launch from LC-39A that does not require that launch complex, between USSF-52 and Crew-7?

However, Jupiter 3 could launch in August.  IM-1 launch is NET Q3.

Similarly with

Ben Cooper's Launch Photography Viewing Guide, updated June 8:

A Falcon 9 will launch the Satria communications satellite for Indonesia from pad 40 on June 19, in the evening EDT

Ben Cooper's Launch Photography Viewing Guide, updated June 9:
June 19 5:54 pm EDT = 21:54 UTC

there is a seven day gap between Transporter 8 and Satria.
SpaceX's recent average gap is now half this, 3.6 days.
There are also over 17 days after Satria from LC-40 before USDD-52 from LC-39A.
Is this enough time to convert LC-39A from Heavy to single stick and back, to fit in another Starlink launch?
(Could they just move the two outermost, side hold-downs and leave the four outer front and back holddowns in place?)

Do they actually move the hold-downs on the dual purpose TE?

[GewoonLukas_]

Will there be "room" for a launch from LC-39A that does not require that launch complex, between USSF-52 and Crew-7?

However, Jupiter 3 could launch in August.  IM-1 launch is NET Q3.

Similarly with

Ben Cooper's Launch Photography Viewing Guide, updated June 8:

A Falcon 9 will launch the Satria communications satellite for Indonesia from pad 40 on June 19, in the evening EDT

Ben Cooper's Launch Photography Viewing Guide, updated June 9:
June 19 5:54 pm EDT = 21:54 UTC

there is a seven day gap between Transporter 8 and Satria.
SpaceX's recent average gap is now half this, 3.6 days.
There are also over 17 days after Satria from LC-40 before USDD-52 from LC-39A.
Is this enough time to convert LC-39A from Heavy to single stick and back, to fit in another Starlink launch?
(Could they just move the two outermost, side hold-downs and leave the four outer front and back holddowns in place?)

Do they actually move the hold-downs on the dual purpose TE?

Somewhere between CRS-22 and CRS-23, they installed the outer front and back holddowns, the outer side holddowns were already installed by that time, and they've kept it that way since. That means that they only need to remove the inner side ones that they use for Falcon 9 in order to get it into Falcon Heavy configuration.

[zubenelgenubi]

Starlink 5-15 is the last scheduled launch of v1.5 Starlink satellites: 🛰

1245-EX-ST-2023   Starlink 5-15, Mission
NET July from Florida [July 8]
ASDS North  28  29  11   West  80  32  51

NextSpaceflight (Updated June 20th)
Launch NET 6 July 2023
https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/details/7168

Also from NextSpaceflight:

This is the last planned launch of Starlink v1.5 satellites.

[wannamoonbase]

Starlink 5-15 is the last launch of v1.5 Starlink satellites: 🛰

1245-EX-ST-2023   Starlink 5-15, Mission
NET July from Florida [July 8]
ASDS North  28  29  11   West  80  32  51

NextSpaceflight (Updated June 20th)
Launch NET 6 July 2023
https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/details/7168

Also from NextSpaceflight:

This is the last planned launch of Starlink v1.5 satellites.

End of the v1.5's, wow, onward we go.

we've gotten use to the flight cadence, but the deployment rate is incredible.  Amazing how they build, launch and operate so many birds.

[Josh_from_Canada]

Starlink 5-15 is the last scheduled launch of v1.5 Starlink satellites: 🛰

1245-EX-ST-2023   Starlink 5-15, Mission
NET July from Florida [July 8]
ASDS North  28  29  11   West  80  32  51

NextSpaceflight (Updated June 20th)
Launch NET 6 July 2023
https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/details/7168

Also from NextSpaceflight:

This is the last planned launch of Starlink v1.5 satellites.

If that's the case then the missions with v1.5 satellites that won't be launched are 2-2, 2-3, 4-24, 4-28, 4-30, 4-32, 4-33, 5-8, and 5-14

[Zed_Noir]

Starlink 5-15 is the last scheduled launch of v1.5 Starlink satellites: 🛰
<snip>
Also from NextSpaceflight:

This is the last planned launch of Starlink v1.5 satellites.

If that's the case then the missions with v1.5 satellites that won't be launched are 2-2, 2-3, 4-24, 4-28, 4-30, 4-32, 4-33, 5-8, and 5-14

SpaceX could launch those missions with ver 1.6 

[zubenelgenubi]

Ben Cooper's Launch Photography Viewing Guide, updated June 23:

<snip>
Upcoming launches include more Starlink batches from pad 40 on July.

Same source, June 24:

<snip>
Upcoming launches include more Starlink batches from pad 40 on July TBD.

[wannamoonbase]

With the FH launches sliding right, I wonder if LC39A will be reworked to handle some single stick F9's (Starlink) while we wait?

[Elthiryel]

With the FH launches sliding right, I wonder if LC39A will be reworked to handle some single stick F9's (Starlink) while we wait?

They could probably do it, but with SLC-40 achieving very short turnaround periods, I think that droneship availability due to the transfer time is a bigger constraint for ASDS flights right now. And it looks like there are no RTLS flights planned from Florida until mid-August (Crew-7).

[wannamoonbase]

With the FH launches sliding right, I wonder if LC39A will be reworked to handle some single stick F9's (Starlink) while we wait?

They could probably do it, but with SLC-40 achieving very short turnaround periods, I think that droneship availability due to the transfer time is a bigger constraint for ASDS flights right now. And it looks like there are no RTLS flights planned from Florida until mid-August (Crew-7).

100% agree, SLC40 has been operating in Beast Mode, but moving to LC39A for awhile could allow them to start stacking the crew tower without interruption.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

Some Vulcan NSSL missions to move to SpaceX?

https://twitter.com/sciguyspace/status/1674133237160091648

ULA confirms Vulcan debut will launch NET 4Q 2023. It seems almost certain now that some NSSL Phase 2 missions will move from Vulcan to Falcon.

https://arstechnica.com/space/2023/06/ula-shipping-vulcan-upper-stage-back-to-factory-for-more-work/

[GewoonLukas_]

At press bfg right now, ESA DG Josef Aschbacher says they've decided to launch EarthCARE on a Falcon 9 instead of Vega-C both bc Vega-C return to flight will be delayed due to test failure and spacecraft requires cutouts to fairing and don't want to make changes at this point.

Sounds like four Galileo satellites could also be moved over to Falcon 9:

They don't have to like it: @esa launching science mission w/ @SpaceX this weekend, then Earth obs mission in 2024, followed by 4 @defis_eu #Galileo sats pending security review. https://bit.ly/3CUm5ZE

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/1674472603820478464

[gongora]

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/1674472603820478464

They don't have to like it: @esa launching science mission w/ @SpaceX this weekend, then Earth obs mission in 2024, followed by 4 @defis_eu #Galileo sats pending security review. https://bit.ly/3CUm5ZE

ESA and SpaceX: Euclid science satellite is next, then Earth observation and navigation satellites in 2024
written by Peter B. De Selding June 29, 2023
LA PLATA, Maryland — The European Space Agency (ESA), as expected, is moving more of its launches to SpaceX given delays in European government-financed rockets and the fact that in today’s medium- and heavy-lift launcher market, just about all roads lead to the SpaceX Falcon 9 — for ESA along with commercial customers.

The most recent transfer is of the ESA-Japan EarthCare solar-radiation satellite. Likely to come is the launch of four Galileo positioning, navigation and timing satellites, ESA officials said June . . .

[FutureSpaceTourist]

Tory doesn’t agree more NSSL flights moving to SpaceX:

ULA confirms Vulcan debut will launch NET 4Q 2023. It seems almost certain now that some NSSL Phase 2 missions will move from Vulcan to Falcon.

https://twitter.com/torybruno/status/1674711512496078848

Very unlikely

[wannamoonbase]

I am very excited to see the Euclid flight tomorrow. 

An escape trajectory will be different and interesting to see the performance of the F9 US.

IT's time to pull some G's.