SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread

[GewoonLukas_]

Just updated a few booster assignments on nextspaceflight, specifically for the FH missions this year. 72 and 75 will not fly as FH side boosters as originally planned and will now remain as F9 boosters for the foreseeable future.

B1064 (FH Side):
- USSF-52 (NET June)
- Psyche (NET October 10th)

B1065 (FH Side):
- USSF-52 (NET June)
- Psyche (NET October 10th)

B1072 (F9):
- Cygnus NG-20 (NET July)

B1074 (FH Core):
- USSF-52 (NET June)

B1079 (FH Core):
- EchoStar XXIV / Jupiter-3 (NET May)

B1080 (F9):
- Axiom-2 (NET May)

B1081 (F9):
Currently no manifest

B1082 (F9):
Currently no manifest

B1083 (F9):
Currently no manifest

B1084 (FH Core, although listed as F9):
- Psyche (NET October 10th)

[Alexphysics]

B1084 (FH Core, although listed as F9):
- Psyche (NET October 10th)

Fixed! I totally didn't know I could change that too. I'm still learning about how to add things to the website that aren't launches

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1639396253896257536

20 launches done, 70+ for rest of year

[wannamoonbase]

There isn't a launch license yet, but it's going to be very weird seeing an actual Starship flight on the manifest.

I've gotten so use to F9 and FH adding a new one will be odd.

[tacoLover7916]

That’s what I was thinking as well. There’s even a small chance next week that three consecutive SpaceX launches will be completed by the three different vehicles. That’d be a sight to see!

[scr00chy]

I wonder if SpaceX will try to squeeze in a Starlink launch from SLC-4E between Transporter-7 and Iridium-9.

Starlink 2-9 or 3-5 are possible candidates.

[GWR64]

Is the Viasat-3 launch delay a problem for the Axiom AX-2 mission schedule?

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=46655.msg2475104#msg2475104

[zubenelgenubi]

Looking ahead at the rest of April; I've included some of my deductions and inferences, marking them with question marks:

Launched in April:
Apr 2                  Vand SLC-4E       LZ-4       1st SDA launch
Apr 7                  CCSFS SLC-40   ASOG     Intelsat 40e/TEMPO
Apr 15                Vand SLC-4E      LZ-4       Transporter-7
Apr 19               CCSFS SLC-40    ASOG    Starlink 6-2
Apr 27               Vand SLC-4E      OCISLY   Starlink 3-5
Apr 28               CCSFS SLC-40   JRTI       O3b mPower 3/4
Apr 30/May 1   KSC LC-39A       all 3 1st stages expended   ViaSat-3 Americas (Delayed until after Axiom-2--NET late May?)

Seven Falcon launches in April (EDT).  (Six launches in April UTC.)

Scheduled to launch in May:
May 4 2                                                               CCSFS SLC-40   ASOG    Starlink 5-6
NET May 6 mid May                                          Vand SLC-4E     OCISLY  Starlink 2-9
NET mid May NET late Apr NET early May   CCSFS SLC-40   ASDS    Starlink 6-3 (priority to Group 6 launch?)
NET mid May May 3                                          Vand SLC-4E     LZ-4       Iridium Flight 9/OneWeb Flight 19
May 17 2 9 mid?                                                KSC LC-39A       ASDS     Axiom-2
May 22                                                                CCSFS SLC-40   ASDS     Badr-8
NET late May NET late Apr NET early May   CCSFS SLC-40   ASDS     Starlink 5-9

Is the Viasat-3 launch delay a problem for the Axiom AX-2 mission schedule?

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=46655.msg2475104#msg2475104

To maintain the ISS Visiting Vehicle schedule, will Axiom-2 maintain its May 8 launch date, and the ViaSat-3 Americas launch be delayed to NET late May?
(change-out of TEL Falcon Heavy adapter for Falcon 9 adapter and back to Falcon Heavy adapter)

Extensive edits through April.

[crandles57]

Scheduled to launch in April:
Apr 19 12:28  CCSFS SLC-40   ASOG     Starlink 6-2
Apr 28  21:12 CCSFS SLC-40   ASDS     O3b mPower 3/4
NET late Apr   CCSFS SLC-40   ASDS     Starlink 6-3
NET late Apr   CCSFS SLC-40   ASDS     Starlink 5-9

9 days 9 hours would be a record for 3 flights from any pad or pad 40.

Shortest gaps for pad 40:
7 Feb 2023 1:32 to 12 Feb 2023 5:10 5 days 4 hours
24 March 2023 15:43 to 29 March 20:01 5 days 5 hours
11 Dec 2022 7:38 to 16 Dec 2022 11:46 5 days 5 hours
15 Oct 2022 5:22 to 20 Oct 2022 14:50 5 days 10 hours
19 Sept 2022 00:18 to 24 Sept 2022 23:32 6 days

3 close to 5 days 4 hours (and a couple more not much longer) possibly suggests this is getting close to some limit?

It is entirely possible that a few hours can be saved off the shortest of these gaps but to do it twice consecutively with an average of 4 days 16 hours seems like it might be a big ask unless SpaceX is known to have done something to allow faster cadence. Anything known to support that?

Or can we conclude fitting in another from pad 40 in April is unlikely? or even very unlikely?

[jpo234]

Politico article about Galileo launches on Falcon 9 and/or Vulcan: EU turns to Elon Musk to replace stalled French rocket

The Commission reckons only SpaceX's Falcon 9 heavy launcher and United Launch Alliance's Vulcan system are up to the job of sending the EU's new geo-navigation Galileo satellites — which weigh around 700 kilograms each — into orbit.

[zubenelgenubi]

Looking ahead at May; I've included some of my deductions and inferences, marking them with question marks:
Launched in May:
May 1 UTC   KSC LC-39A       all 3 1st stages expended   ViaSat-3 Americas
May 4           CCSFS SLC-40   ASOG     Starlink 5-6
May 10         Vand SLC-4E      OCISLY   Starlink 2-9
May 14         CCSFS SLC-40   JRTI       Starlink 5-9
May 19         CCSFS SLC-40   ASOG     Starlink 6-3
May 20         Vand SLC-4E      OCISLY   Iridium Flight 9/OneWeb Flight 19
May 21         KSC LC-39A        LZ-1       Axiom-2
May 27         CCSFS SLC-40   JRTI       BADR-8

Scheduled to launch in May:
May 31 late? NET ~30   Vand SLC-4E   OCISLY   Starlink 2-10

Nine Falcon launches in May (UTC)?

Scheduled to launch in June:
Jun 1 end of? May NET Jun 3 NET 30 30   CCSFS SLC-40   ASOG     Starlink 6-4
Jun 3 1 early?                                                  KSC LC-39A        JRTI       SpX-28
Jun 5 NET May late? NET 12                        CCSFS SLC-40   ASOG     Starlink 5-11
Jun 8 10                                                           Vand SLC-4E       LZ-4       Transporter-8
Jun 9 early NET 6                                           CCSFS SLC-40    JRTI       O3b mPower 5/6
NET mid Jun NET May                                  CCSFS SLC-40    ASOG?   Starlink 5-12
OR
NET mid Jun                                                   CCSFS SLC-40    ASOG?   Starlink 6-5
Jun 19 14 NET 17                                          CCSFS SLC-40    JRTI        Satria
NET mid Jun                                                   Vand SLC-4E       OCISLY   Starlink 5-7
NET late Jun mid? Jun                                  Vand SLC-4E       LZ-4       SDA T&TL Tranche 0 Flight 2

Scheduled to launch in early July:
NET Jul 7   KSC LC-39A   LZ-1 & LZ-2   USSF-52

Made a bunch of updates to the upcoming manifest on Nextspaceflight. 10 launches on the schedule for May 2023 with some record pad turnarounds to be expected. A couple of missions got bumped to June but only cause we don't know when they're exactly are going to occur but we do know they're not going to happen in May so pushing them to the following month for the time being.

Extensive edits through April and May.

[crandles57]

1 rideshare, 5 starlink, 1 crew. No Arabsat 7B despite having May 22 expected launch date in letter.

3 from VSFB. 2nd 15th 25th in April suggests this is possible but if ~13 day gaps then would be ~8th ~21st May then 3 June so could easily see 3rd slip to June.

KSC-LC39A just Ax-2 with CRS-28 in early(?) June, yes that seems likely.

LC40 3 launches? With no droneships needed for LC40 launches, that could possibly allow 4 launches from LC40 at roughly 7/8 day intervals. Commercial might get priority so I am not inclined to rule out 6-3, 5-9, Arabsat 7B, 6-4 if you give priority to commercial and 6-x over 5-x. OSD for 6-4 is 18 April whereas 5-11 is 3 May.

(Edit with some record turnarounds averaging 7 days and starting on 2nd May, 5 from pad 40 in May may be possible for 3+1+5 =9 launches. To fit 10 launches I suppose you could speculate 6 launches from pad 40 2 May, 1 5 day gap and 4 6 day gaps but I doubt this will be achieved due to delays of some sort somewhere and also 22nd doesn't fall into such a pattern, but if they can now do 3.5 day pad turnaround (currently planned 28th April 21:12 and May 2 08:40 both from pad 40) maybe it is possible.)

[wannamoonbase]

Fully expendable Falcon Heavy on Wednesday.  May get lost after the Superheavy test flight. 

This is going to amazing to watch the burn times on the side boosters. 

[ZachS09]

Fully expendable Falcon Heavy on Wednesday. May get lost after the Starship test flight. 

This is going to amazing to watch the burn times on the side boosters. 

I think the side boosters will be gone after nearly three minutes (probably T+2 minutes, 50 seconds).

And because the center core has throttled down for most of the ascent phase, it may keep going until the four and a half minute mark (I’m guessing T+4 minutes, 33 seconds).

[Martin_G]

https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_spt.jsp

SPACEX STARLINK 5-6 CCSFS, FL
PRIMARY:   05/02/23   0810-1250Z
BACKUP(S):   05/03/23   0745-1224Z
      05/04/23   0719-1159Z
      05/05/23   0654-1134Z
      05/06/23   0629-1109Z
      05/07/23   0604-1044Z
      05/08/23   0538-1018Z

Is this a typo, or are they really going to send a batch of starlinks into orbit that were not expected by the community?

[GewoonLukas_]

SPACEX STARLINK 5-6 CCSFS, FL
PRIMARY:   05/02/23   0810-1250Z
BACKUP(S):   05/03/23   0745-1224Z
      05/04/23   0719-1159Z
      05/05/23   0654-1134Z
      05/06/23   0629-1109Z
      05/07/23   0604-1044Z
      05/08/23   0538-1018Z

Is this a typo, or are they really going to send a batch of starlinks into orbit that were not expected by the community?

Could it be using that weird "Spare" Group 5 mission STA?

2117-EX-ST-2022  Starlink Group 5-?
"launch vehicle communications for a spare Starlink Group 5 mission"
from Florida NET mid-January
ASDS    North  25  36  35   West  74  47  47

[Alexphysics]

Made a bunch of updates to the upcoming manifest on Nextspaceflight. 10 launches on the schedule for May 2023 with some record pad turnarounds to be expected. A couple of missions got bumped to June but only cause we don't know when they're exactly are going to occur but we do know they're not going to happen in May so pushing them to the following month for the time being.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

More potential ESA flight gains for SpaceX:

https://twitter.com/andrewparsonson/status/1651232274011004930

Breaking: I have heard from a source that @esa is looking to qualify Sentinel-1C to fly aboard a @SpaceX Falcon 9. The agency is keen to get the satellite into orbit ASAP with the Sentinel-1 constellation operating at a reduced capacity following the loss of Sentinel-1B.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/sciguyspace/status/1652808006071885824

"The Ariane, unfortunately, we had to change because they were having difficulties getting the Ariane 6 ready to go."

This probably will result in another Falcon Heavy being added to the manifest in 2024 since ULA has no spare capacity on Vulcan for awhile.

twitter.com/spaceflightnow/status/1652803802729250822

On the eve of launching its first ViaSat 3 internet satellite on a SpaceX rocket, Viasat says it has moved the launch of an identical spacecraft off of Europe's long-delayed Ariane 6 rocket, and is considering bids from other rocket companies. spaceflightnow.com/2023/04/30/via…

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/tylerg1998/status/1652837765359255553

Thanks to tonight’s launch, we have now seen all three of #SpaceX’s active orbital-class rockets - #Falcon9, #FalconHeavy, & #Starship - all take flight within a 10-day time span.

I don’t think we’ll see something like this again for a long while, if ever again. 😮

📸: SpaceX

Except maybe later this year?!