SpaceX F9 : NROL-108 : KSC LC-39A : 19 December 2020 (14:00 UTC)

[Jansen]

I received this notice from the NGA.  I'm not certain that it is for this launch, but it seems the most likely.

Note that there is an error in the text.  "311355Z TO 31652Z OCT" should be "311355Z TO 311652Z OCT".

260250Z OCT 20
NAVAREA IV 1033/20(11,26).
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.
FLORIDA.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, ROCKET LAUNCHING
   311355Z TO 31652Z OCT, ALTERNATE
   011355Z TO 011652Z NOV
   IN AREAS BOUND BY:
   A. 28-39-43N 080-38-12W, 29-02-00N 080-15-00W,
      28-57-00N 080-08-00W, 28-40-00N 080-11-00W,
      28-27-00N 080-24-00W, 28-26-52N 080-32-07W.
   B. 30-12-00N 079-06-00W, 30-28-00N 078-56-00W,
      30-54-00N 078-52-00W, 31-14-00N 078-13-00W,
      31-06-00N 077-36-00W, 30-47-00N 077-22-00W,
      30-27-00N 077-26-00W, 30-08-00N 078-20-00W,
      30-03-00N 078-58-00W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 011752Z NOV 20.

That would mark the fastest pad turnaround on SLC-40 by 5 days, since Starlink v1.0 L14 launched from there on Saturday.

It’s possible that this is Starlink v1.0 L15 instead.

The launch window parameters are not consistent with a Starlink launch.

Specifically:
1. The launch window is much longer than for a Starlink launch.
2. The launch window times are the same for both days.  Starlink is 21-22 minutes earlier each day.

NROL-101 just did a WDR a few days ago. Could it be for that instead?

Or possibly even NROL-44?


Edit: Other sites are beginning to confirm a launch date of NET 31 Oct, but hey if we can eliminate other possibilities it would be useful.

[Ken the Bin]

I received a new notice from the NGA correcting the bad time that I pointed out in my original post.

260512Z OCT 20
NAVAREA IV 1034/20(11,26).
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.
FLORIDA.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, ROCKET LAUNCHING
   311355Z TO 311652Z OCT, ALTERNATE
   011355Z TO 011652Z NOV
   IN AREAS BOUND BY:
   A. 28-39-43N 080-38-12W, 29-02-00N 080-15-00W,
      28-57-00N 080-08-00W, 28-40-00N 080-11-00W,
      28-27-00N 080-24-00W, 28-26-52N 080-32-07W.
   B. 30-12-00N 079-06-00W, 30-28-00N 078-56-00W,
      30-54-00N 078-52-00W, 31-14-00N 078-13-00W,
      31-06-00N 077-36-00W, 30-47-00N 077-22-00W,
      30-27-00N 077-26-00W, 30-08-00N 078-20-00W,
      30-03-00N 078-58-00W.
2. CANCEL NAVAREA IV 1033/20.
3. CANCEL THIS MSG 011752Z NOV 20.

Referenced:

260250Z OCT 20
NAVAREA IV 1033/20(11,26).
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.
FLORIDA.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, ROCKET LAUNCHING
   311355Z TO 31652Z OCT, ALTERNATE
   011355Z TO 011652Z NOV
   IN AREAS BOUND BY:
   A. 28-39-43N 080-38-12W, 29-02-00N 080-15-00W,
      28-57-00N 080-08-00W, 28-40-00N 080-11-00W,
      28-27-00N 080-24-00W, 28-26-52N 080-32-07W.
   B. 30-12-00N 079-06-00W, 30-28-00N 078-56-00W,
      30-54-00N 078-52-00W, 31-14-00N 078-13-00W,
      31-06-00N 077-36-00W, 30-47-00N 077-22-00W,
      30-27-00N 077-26-00W, 30-08-00N 078-20-00W,
      30-03-00N 078-58-00W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 011752Z NOV 20.

[Alexphysics]

That would mark the fastest pad turnaround on SLC-40 by 5 days, since Starlink v1.0 L14 launched from there on Saturday.

It’s possible that this is Starlink v1.0 L15 instead.

AFAIK, there's no reason NROL-108 can't launch from Pad 39A.

Except the top insert at 39A's strongback is currently the one used for Dragon 2 (it was changed this past week) so unless NROL-108 is secretly a Dragon 2 (which would be cool btw), I really doubt that one is going off pad 39A.

I’m not familiar with this top insert. Is it used exclusively for Dragon2?

The top section of the strongback past the upper clamp is removable and has two different configurations: fairing configuration and Dragon 2 configuration. When a Falcon 9 with a fairing is launched the top insert is the one that is adapted for the fairing configuration of Falcon 9 and when a Dragon 2 launches the top insert is the one used for the Falcon 9 configuration that includes a Dragon 2 on top. You can easily see the top of the strongback not being the same when a Falcon 9 launches from 39A with a Dragon 2 on top or when it has a fairing on top.

[Jansen]

Thanks, that’s really interesting. Any idea how long it takes to swap the insert?

[Alexphysics]

Interestingly, now Ben Cooper shows this launch as being from pad 39A. I checked and it seems the top insert for Dragon 2 isn't there anymore and, in fact, there's no top insert on that strongback yet. I suspect this would mean NROL-108 is in fact going off from 39A.

Live view is provided by Florida Today and you can watch it via this link:

[Jansen]

I believe that the workflow for crewed missions requires around 21 days for LC-39A.

If they have solved the engine issues and plan to launch 15 Nov for Crew-1, then SLC-40 makes more sense, considering it is the go-to launchpad for national security missions.

Everything is still supposition, but some good insights.

[gongora]

Ben Cooper has updated his SpaceX schedule again.  This flight may have slipped a bit.

[Alexphysics]

Ben Cooper has updated his SpaceX schedule again.  This flight may have slipped a bit.

Yep, I'm starting to get dizzy with this launch...

[gongora]

Ben Cooper has updated his SpaceX schedule again.  This flight may have slipped a bit.

Yep, I'm starting to get dizzy with this launch...

We're just getting started with this launch.  The overall schedule has been a bit fluid lately.

[wannamoonbase]

RTLS - How fun, those are the best!

[kdhilliard]

Does the classified nature of this mission make it preferable, purely from a security perspective, to fly from CCAFS's SLC-40 than from KSC's LC-39A?

NROL-76 flew from LC-39A (though that was while SLC-40 was still being rebuilt following the AMOS-6 conflagration) and all NSSL flights requiring a Falcon Heavy and/or vertical payload integration will fly from LC-39A, so securing the site is certainly possible, but is it more of a hassle to do there than over in CCAFS?

[Jansen]

Does the classified nature of this mission make it preferable, purely from a security perspective, to fly from CCAFS's SLC-40 than from KSC's LC-39A?

NROL-76 flew from LC-39A (though that was while SLC-40 was still being rebuilt following the AMOS-6 conflagration) and all NSSL flights requiring a Falcon Heavy and/or vertical payload integration will fly from LC-39A, so securing the site is certainly possible, but is it more of a hassle to do there than over in CCAFS?

With commercial launches based out of a privately-owned pad - likely in South Texas - and NASA flights staged from the Kennedy Space Center's pad 39A, SpaceX's existing pad at Complex 40 on Air Force property would be dedicated to national security work, according to Musk.

https://spaceflightnow.com/news/n1310/18spacex

[gongora]

Does the classified nature of this mission make it preferable, purely from a security perspective, to fly from CCAFS's SLC-40 than from KSC's LC-39A?

NROL-76 flew from LC-39A (though that was while SLC-40 was still being rebuilt following the AMOS-6 conflagration) and all NSSL flights requiring a Falcon Heavy and/or vertical payload integration will fly from LC-39A, so securing the site is certainly possible, but is it more of a hassle to do there than over in CCAFS?

With commercial launches based out of a privately-owned pad - likely in South Texas - and NASA flights staged from the Kennedy Space Center's pad 39A, SpaceX's existing pad at Complex 40 on Air Force property would be dedicated to national security work, according to Musk.

https://spaceflightnow.com/news/n1310/18spacex

That article is slightly out of date 

[Jansen]

That article is slightly out of date 

It’s what I had handy. Isn’t much written specifically on the subject.

[Jansen]

GPS III-SV04 looks like it will launch from SLC-40 on Thu Nov 05.

NROL-108 looks to be next from the same pad after that prob in the Nov 17-20 timeframe.

Crew-1 looks to be a go for Nov 15, if so LC-39A will be booked until then.

[Ken the Bin]

Ben Cooper has updated his SpaceX schedule again.  This flight may have slipped a bit.

So far I have not received any cancellation notices from the NGA, neither for the launch nor the related Space Debris notices.

[Ken the Bin]

Ben Cooper has updated his SpaceX schedule again.  This flight may have slipped a bit.

So far I have not received any cancellation notices from the NGA, neither for the launch nor the related Space Debris notices.

I've received the cancellation notices from the NGA.  Here's the one for the launch:

262334Z OCT 20
NAVAREA IV 1036/20(11,26).
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.
FLORIDA.
CANCEL NAVAREA IV 1034/20 AND THIS MSG,
OPERATIONS POSTPONED.

Referenced:

260512Z OCT 20
NAVAREA IV 1034/20(11,26).
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.
FLORIDA.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, ROCKET LAUNCHING
   311355Z TO 311652Z OCT, ALTERNATE
   011355Z TO 011652Z NOV
   IN AREAS BOUND BY:
   A. 28-39-43N 080-38-12W, 29-02-00N 080-15-00W,
      28-57-00N 080-08-00W, 28-40-00N 080-11-00W,
      28-27-00N 080-24-00W, 28-26-52N 080-32-07W.
   B. 30-12-00N 079-06-00W, 30-28-00N 078-56-00W,
      30-54-00N 078-52-00W, 31-14-00N 078-13-00W,
      31-06-00N 077-36-00W, 30-47-00N 077-22-00W,
      30-27-00N 077-26-00W, 30-08-00N 078-20-00W,
      30-03-00N 078-58-00W.
2. CANCEL NAVAREA IV 1033/20.
3. CANCEL THIS MSG 011752Z NOV 20.

[AndrewRG10]

We have a NET launch date, November 18

RocketRocketLAUNCH UPDATE: The next NRO launch to watch is NROL-101 on an #AtlasV with
@ulalaunch
 on Nov. 3 from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, followed by NROL-108 on a #Falcon9 with
@SpaceX
 NET 18 Nov, also from CCAFS.
@45thSpaceWing

https://twitter.com/NatReconOfc/status/1321926366149959681

[zubenelgenubi]

We have a NET launch date, November 18

RocketRocketLAUNCH UPDATE: The next NRO launch to watch is NROL-101 on an #AtlasV with @ulalaunch on Nov. 3 from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, followed by NROL-108 on a #Falcon9 with @SpaceX NET 18 Nov, also from CCAFS.
@45thSpaceWing

A match with this filing?

Turksat 5A?  https://fcc.report/ELS/Space-Exploration-Technologies-Corp-SpaceX/1503-EX-ST-2020
ASDS to the east, NET Nov. 17 (we've heard end of November for that launch)

[scr00chy]

A match with this filing?

Turksat 5A?  https://fcc.report/ELS/Space-Exploration-Technologies-Corp-SpaceX/1503-EX-ST-2020
ASDS to the east, NET Nov. 17 (we've heard end of November for that launch)

NROL-108 will RTLS.