QuoteI think Blue Origin and ULA will eventually unite like Orbital-ATK. ULA has a lot of value as an experienced launch provider and BO has none, I think it is an excellent fit.Because Bezos wants to be shackled to Boeing and Lockmart? I can't imagine that's his grand vision.
I think Blue Origin and ULA will eventually unite like Orbital-ATK. ULA has a lot of value as an experienced launch provider and BO has none, I think it is an excellent fit.
Depends on whether he's the shackl-er or the shackl-ee.
I definitely think this will come down to whether Bezos is open to it.
ULA will definitely be feeling some shareholder pressure...
Especially when, as others have mentioned, there would be no doubt that ULA would be the ones calling the shots from then on out.
QuoteDepends on whether he's the shackl-er or the shackl-ee.Boeing 2014 revenue: $90BLockMart 2014 net sales: $46BBlue Origin 2014 revenue: ??When you're shackled to two gorillas, there's not much doubt about who's in charge. And even if the gorillas somehow make you CEO, managing two gorillas is not as much fun as building your own rockets in your own sandbox, alone without the gorillas.
Nah. He'll be able to get ULA at his own terms, and Boeing and LMCO will feel blessed to be getting the deal.For the corporate parents, once the sweet ride ends, ULA will become a liability. Bezos, OTOH, has cash and can leverage ULA's connections to expedite BO's growth. From his point of view, what's not to like?
Another benefit to bringing a stage home is the ability to add instrumentation to more closely monitor how systems are performing in flight. SpaceX placed additional instrumentation in GH2, which was unfortunately lost. With stage recovery, that investment in additional instrumentation is now recoverable.For a reference, this is what the 787 looked like with flight test instrumentation.
Quote from: mme on 12/27/2015 06:02 pmI don't think the incumbents will take reuse of the entire stage seriously until SpaceX has paying customers flying on reused stages. Even if there are customers like SES that will pay to fly on a used first stage, it is questionable as to whether or not Ariane and ULA can change course from their current plans with Ariane 6and Vulcan.Ariane 6 already has a $9 billion plan and signed contracts for development. The political fight to change course is probably not going to happen. It is just too painful and too many industrial base jobs are already committed to their $9 billion plan. So regardless what SpaceX proves with their first stage launching again, I think Ariane 6 is on a roadmap that won't change much.There are probably many smart people in Europe that are shaking their heads at the stupidity of it all and wishing that they could start over on the design. However this is a political decision and there are lots of high paying union jobs involved.I think the CEO of ULA (Bruno) realizes that they need to change to survive. But the hand he has been dealt makes it extraordinarily difficult.My personal guess is that ULA will gradually fade away and BO will become the second dominant player in the launch market within the next 10 years.
I don't think the incumbents will take reuse of the entire stage seriously until SpaceX has paying customers flying on reused stages.
Virgin untested booster cheaper; reused and proven one more expensive.Eventually, at least.
And even further out, maybe it will be as in the current airline industry, and won't matter WHAT you're flying just as long as you GET there, dependent only on market conditions. Elon Musk has repeatedly compared tossing a rocket to tossing an airplane.BTW, is your counterintuitive assertion something you're certain will be true in the near future, or just a guess? Took me by surprise and probably a lot of other people. I can see some of the reasoning, but testing & retesting a vehicle that doesn't have to be completely rebuilt each time implies only incremental upcharges.