Author Topic: 2026 Starship Launches Poll (Read 11441 times)

JH · « **Reply #20 on:** 12/05/2025 03:25 am »

There were five this year and it was not smooth sailing. Do you really think they will only manage one additional flight next year?

redneck · « **Reply #21 on:** 12/05/2025 07:56 am »

Quote from: JH on 12/05/2025 03:25 am

There were five this year and it was not smooth sailing. Do you really think they will only manage one additional flight next year?

Depends heavily on how the V3 shakes out. I voted 6-10 as I expect a few more but not the cascade some expect. To me, SpaceX is still in development, aggressive development, but still.

leeloodallasmultipass · « **Reply #22 on:** 12/17/2025 05:17 pm »

10-15. This is final iteration. No need to wait for the next thing. They will launch a lot.

envy887 · « **Reply #23 on:** 12/17/2025 07:17 pm »

Quote from: leeloodallasmultipass on 12/17/2025 05:17 pm

10-15. This is final iteration. No need to wait for the next thing. They will launch a lot.

SpaceX doesn't do final iterations. It should launch a lot anyway, though.

saturnsky · « **Reply #24 on:** 12/17/2025 07:22 pm »

Six,,,,perhaps 4 successful,,,2 failures,,,,1 reaches orbit,,,,no attempes to refuel,,,and probable loss of lunar lander role in Artemis 3,,,,,,

mordroberon · « **Reply #25 on:** 01/12/2026 01:42 pm »

6-10

It's a general rule of rocket design that a new design will have issues. I expect it will take a couple tries to have a flight without mishap. Block 3 is a bigger change than Block 2 was, at least externally. New engine version, hot staging will be different, catching the booster will be different. Weight distribution and cross section are very different for the new second stage.

So long as they stay with Block 3 instead of moving to an even bigger Block 4 they should be able to work through everything this year and start launching reliably with a cadence of at least once a month by the end of the year.

Yggdrasill · « **Reply #26 on:** 01/12/2026 06:34 pm »

I'm thinking 12. This year they are going from one to at least two launch pads. The factory is much more capable, with more space, more employees and better tooling. They've mostly sorted out booster reuse and refurbishment.

Doing one launch per month doesn't seem unreasonable. They are a little behind going into the year, because of the finishing touches on pad 2, and unfortunate accidents with two vehicles at Masseys, but they should be able to ramp up towards the end of the year.

jongoff · « **Reply #27 on:** 01/12/2026 09:00 pm »

Quote from: Yggdrasill on 01/12/2026 06:34 pm

I'm thinking 12. This year they are going from one to at least two launch pads. The factory is much more capable, with more space, more employees and better tooling. They've mostly sorted out booster reuse and refurbishment.

Doing one launch per month doesn't seem unreasonable. They are a little behind going into the year, because of the finishing touches on pad 2, and unfortunate accidents with two vehicles at Masseys, but they should be able to ramp up towards the end of the year.

It all depends on how smoothly the shift from V2 to V3 goes. If V3 has teething pains like V2, it doesn't matter as much what their launch site and factory capacity is. It takes time to correct problems and fly again, and throwing 9 women at the problem isn't going to get you a baby in 1 month.

That said, if things go relatively smoothly, and they tranisition quickly into regular lather/rinse/repeat operations, factory capacity and site capacity matter more.

tl;dr, I voted 6-10, but don't think 12 is absurd.

~Jon

Yggdrasill · « **Reply #28 on:** 01/12/2026 09:27 pm »

Yes, it does matter how fast they get V3 working well. But even if they take 3 flights and 6 months to get V3 working, they would have 6 months left of the year and potentially like 3 Starships lined up ready to fly. With reused boosters they could then do 3 flights in one month and still have 5 months left of the year to fly the last 6 to hit 12. (I'm assuming they can hit production of one Starship per month with relative ease.)

The big question for me is if SpaceX is actually going to commit to V3, or just switch to V4 (or V3.5) if they aren't happy with V3. If they switch to V4 then yeah, more like 6 is realistic.

DanClemmensen · « **Reply #29 on:** 01/12/2026 09:38 pm »

Quote from: Yggdrasill on 01/12/2026 09:27 pm

Yes, it does matter how fast they get V3 working well. But even if they take 3 flights and 6 months to get V3 working, they would have 6 months left of the year and potentially like 3 Starships lined up ready to fly. With reused boosters they could then do 3 flights in one month and still have 5 months left of the year to fly the last 6 to hit 12. (I'm assuming they can hit production of one Starship per month with relative ease.)

The big question for me is if SpaceX is actually going to commit to V3, or just switch to V4 (or V3.5) if they aren't happy with V3. If they switch to V4 then yeah, more like 6 is realistic.

I'm a wild-eyed optimist and I voted for 16-20, but reality intrudes. It's not just V3 Booster and Ship. It's also V3 stage zero. As of January 2026, SpaceX has zero functional Starship launch pads. If things go perfectly, they may launch in March, so it's not 12 months, it's nine months. If there is a major problem with Stage 0, OR with Booster, OR with Ship, It'll take awhile to get to the one launch per week per pad they will need to keep Artemis III on track.