Author Topic: A new vision for space exploration  (Read 9135 times)

Offline pberrett

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A new vision for space exploration
« on: 01/21/2010 10:19 am »
Hi all

I think we have to go in a radically new direction in terms of outer space exploration. We need to have a practical use for Space, one with immediate demonstrable benefits for all the nations that would participate.

With this in mind I present the following idea. I freely admit I am not a rocket scientist but maybe this will at least stimulate some discussion.

The vision is - The International Space Telescope, a moon based, upgradable, modular Telescope on a par with the best here on Earth i.e with a really big mirror.

Participating countries - USA, Russia, China (yes China), Australia, Canada, UK, EU, North Korea, South Korea, Iran

Hardware

Passenger travel; to Moon Orbit - Orion or Soyuz launched to Earth orbit on Soyuz rocket or commercial US rocket. In Earth orbit the EDS would be assembled with the passenger craft. (1 launch)

Heavy lift launching of EDS - Ariane with 2 Shuttle derived reusable boosters. (may require 2 Ariane  launches?)

Moon lander - Russia to design, China to build

Australia, Canada - moonbase housing, telescope design and construction, food supply (including Vegemite :) )

South Korea - electronics for moonbase (computers etc)

Iran, North Korea - spaceflight participants as a goodwill building gesture with these nations.

Astronauts/Takonauts/Kanganauts/Cosmonauts/Euronauts from all the above

Other nations can send astronauts provided they stump up cash or for poorer nations maybe paid for by other nations as a goodwill gesture.

As you can see some Shuttle hardware is still used but the US's hardware is on a smaller scale thus saving $$$. Ariane is good for heavy lift with extra boost from the reusable Shuttle boosters.

All the major nations get to participate but they all depend on each other to make the project work.
   
Such a new large telescope would have discoveries that would make Hubble's achievements look small. And all could claim credit for the new telescope's successes.

This proposal does achieve some of the Flexible Path objectives and does allow for some moon exploration as well but keeps costs down.

Workable? Please crunch the numbers.
 
Regards Peter
« Last Edit: 01/21/2010 10:28 am by pberrett »

Offline pberrett

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Re: A new vision for space exploration
« Reply #1 on: 01/21/2010 10:32 am »
I might add that one possible way of building the moonbase might be to use modules from the ISS transported to the moon's surface. They weren't designed for the task but maybe they could be modified for use. 

Regards Peter

Offline robertross

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Re: A new vision for space exploration
« Reply #2 on: 01/21/2010 01:01 pm »
Biggest problem: lunar dust on the mirror.

Offline luke strawwalker

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Re: A new vision for space exploration
« Reply #3 on: 01/21/2010 02:46 pm »
Back up to your basic idea, and you might have something.  I don't think the lunar surface is the best place for a telescope, unless it's a radio telescope on the farside of the moon, or interferometry telescopes set up along a LONG stable baseline, which the moon would be good for.  Again, the farside would probably be the best location for such a telescope(s).   Dividing up the task among the major players, with each providing a distinct component or service (launch) for the mission, would work.  The mismatched mish-mash of using "reusable shuttle boosters" on Ariane 5 and such just wouldn't work.  To use SRB's on an Ariane 5 would require the whole rocket be completely rebuilt, retested, and requalified.  Not a good way to run a railroad! 

Also, why have the Russians design your lunar lander, yet have the Chinese build it??  Makes no sense... Designers have to work hand in hand and be intimately familiar with the capabilities, tooling, infrastructure, and techniques used to build the final product... it would make no sense for the Russians to design the lander and hand that design off to the Chinese.  Let one country design the thing and build it using their unique tooling, infrastructure, and capabilities. 

Also, it's essential to honestly assess the capabilities and likelihood of success and timely delivery of the components by your participating countries.  If you have an unreliable partner constructing a VITAL part of the mission, so that the mission cannot take place if the partner fails to deliver, the whole project is in jeopardy. 

I wouldn't put North Korea or Iran anywhere on the same page as the word "reliable partner".  Maybe they could provide compressed air or water, but I certainly wouldn't rely on them for anything more 'vital to mission success' than that! 

Good luck!  OL JR :)
NO plan IS the plan...

"His plan had no goals, no timeline, and no budgetary guidelines. Just maybe's, pretty speeches, and smokescreens."

Offline Mark S

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Re: A new vision for space exploration
« Reply #4 on: 01/21/2010 04:27 pm »
You had me right up until "Space Telescope".  That is not a "practical" use of outer space.  I like the idea and applaud the advancement of science, but any expensive, long-term science project, with little or no chance of ever recouping its development and operational costs, is not practical.

Sure, it's a great way to get all the bickering nations together by giving them a common goal to spend all their budget surpluses on.  But how is it practical?  How does it benefit the bottom lines of those who invest in it?

No, the only way we are ever going to get off this rock in any meaningful way is to find a way to make rich people even richer.  And by richer, I mean filthy stinking richer. And if it helps poor and middle class people too, then all the better.  As long as the rich get richer!

Show the rich people of the world how to make a few $billion in space, and you will see the checkbooks open up faster than NBC can fire a late-night show host!

Mark S.
(not rich at all)

Offline William Barton

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Re: A new vision for space exploration
« Reply #5 on: 01/21/2010 04:45 pm »
We should mount an expedition to Saturn and claim the whole shebang for the US. 500 years from now, all that water and all those hydrocarbons will be worth having. We can profit from spinoffs and industrustrial infrastructure investment while we're waiting. The Elizabethans didn't gain much near-term from the colonization of the east coast of North America, but the infrastructure investment bought them India 150 years later.
« Last Edit: 01/21/2010 04:47 pm by William Barton »

Offline Mark S

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Re: A new vision for space exploration
« Reply #6 on: 01/21/2010 05:16 pm »
I'm not saying don't do it.  I'm saying that the way to do it is to find a way for people to make money in space (other than on govt projects), then exploit their eagerness to make money to fund other long term goals.  If the greedy (okay, enlightened entrepreneurs) want to make money in space, they will need all that infrastructure you mentioned.  No Buck Rogers, no bucks!

Show me a politician that thinks in terms of 150 years, I challenge you.  We're lucky if any of our "leaders" look past the next election, or even the next poll leading up to the next election.  :(

You have to work within the system as it actually is, find a way leverage it and exploit its motivations.  And then redirect that energy to make progress in areas that the entrepreneurs have no interest in.  Like giant space telescopes!

Mark S.

Offline pberrett

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Re: A new vision for space exploration
« Reply #7 on: 01/22/2010 11:25 am »

I am hopeful that a solution could be found to the problem of lunar dust. A vacuum cleaner perhaps? (no pun intended) :)

To me going to the moon for the sake of some footprints of personal exploration seems a poor goal. We can use high resolution photography and computers to create a virtual moon and explore it that way right here on Earth. 

But a telescope, a seriously big one that is upgradable and maintainable, is like Hubble, something that is a genuine use of the moon's resources (ie its position in space) to get something you can't get on earth. And it servicable.

The Chinese can make suits from plans you send them in 24 hours. Moon landers are just a step up the ladder. And they already have a space industry so they have some experience in this area.

Regards Peter




Offline William Barton

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Re: A new vision for space exploration
« Reply #8 on: 01/22/2010 11:46 am »
I'm not saying don't do it.  I'm saying that the way to do it is to find a way for people to make money in space (other than on govt projects), then exploit their eagerness to make money to fund other long term goals.  If the greedy (okay, enlightened entrepreneurs) want to make money in space, they will need all that infrastructure you mentioned.  No Buck Rogers, no bucks!

Show me a politician that thinks in terms of 150 years, I challenge you.  We're lucky if any of our "leaders" look past the next election, or even the next poll leading up to the next election.  :(

You have to work within the system as it actually is, find a way leverage it and exploit its motivations.  And then redirect that energy to make progress in areas that the entrepreneurs have no interest in.  Like giant space telescopes!

Mark S.

Politicians who can think beyond the next election are about as common as businessmen who can think beyond the current quarter's bottom line. And yes, I have very extensive, up-to-date experience with business at all scales. Anyway, I was being sarcastic about Saturn.

Offline Analyst

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Re: A new vision for space exploration
« Reply #9 on: 01/22/2010 12:21 pm »
Space telescopes - like all telescopes and many other structures - like stable thermal environments and an unlimited viewing field. They also don't like dust. All this speaks against the Moon. Even LEO is better than the Moon. Go to an Lagrange point and you are done. Less delta v needed too.

Analyst

Offline mmeijeri

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Re: A new vision for space exploration
« Reply #10 on: 01/22/2010 12:27 pm »
They also don't like dust.

Not necessarily advocating this but how about radio telescopes?
« Last Edit: 01/22/2010 12:28 pm by mmeijeri »
Pro-tip: you don't have to be a jerk if someone doesn't agree with your theories

Offline infocat13

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Re: A new vision for space exploration
« Reply #11 on: 01/22/2010 12:33 pm »
Space telescopes - like all telescopes and many other structures - like stable thermal environments and an unlimited viewing field. They also don't like dust. All this speaks against the Moon. Even LEO is better than the Moon. Go to an Lagrange point and you are done. Less delta v needed too.

Analyst


and these things would need a power source for the lunar night( add money) and imaging devices in space do not have to worry about the horizon getting in the way.
I am a member of the side mount amazing people universe however I can get excited over the EELV exploration architecture amazing people universe.Anything else is budgetary hog wash
flexible path/HERRO

Offline HappyMartian

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Re: A new vision for space exploration
« Reply #12 on: 01/22/2010 01:03 pm »
Mark S. noted, "Sure, it's a great way to get all the bickering nations together by giving them a common goal to spend all their budget surpluses on.  But how is it practical?  How does it benefit the bottom lines of those who invest in it?"


The bottom line is that nations are a lot like large businesses. Nations need a happy and efficient corporate image and culture. Pride in self, family, workplace, and country gets a lot of people out of bed in the morning. Feeling good about yourself and your corner in the universe makes you a happier and more productive citizen.

Governments are stronger and less nervous when their citizens are happy and proud. Most governments, like businesses, want stable growth. Both of them also hate being nervous about the uncertainties of the future. International cooperative activity can promote a nation's stable economic growth and self-confidence.

Businesses and countries need to do a huge amount of advertising. Advertising can build trust and brand loyalty. Space exploration can be viewed as a modest and effective ad campaign to let your own citizens and the rest of the world know that your country is a high tech wonder and a good partner for international cooperative projects such as building jets, harbors, airports, oil refineries, wind farms, solar energy farms, geothermal power plants, atomic power plants, computers, cars, and robotic factories.

International cooperation in the service industry is also a money maker. Service providers also need to impress their customers, and high tech space exploration is effective national and international advertising. Remember that the high tech space technology is produced by people who are well educated and serious about doing everything correctly. A nation’s service industry can use national space activity to “prove” or “demonstrate” that it has such people. By the way, “well educated” means a high school education in much of the world…

International cooperative investments and other economic activities make huge piles of money. Making money is important to almost every nation on the planet. If your nation can be trusted to cooperate in space, you should find it a lot easier to be trusted in cooperating to make money on Earth. Without trust, business and making money is difficult.

Cooperative international efforts in space are a peaceful way to let everyone know that you are a technologically tough guy with lots friends and maybe not an easy pushover if push ever comes to shove. Remember that most nations are a lot smaller that America. Cooperation is vital in order for them to achieve their security needs. International cooperation in the exploration of space is also a valid war avoidance technique for large nations. War prevention is in itself an extremely valuable “product” or “service” of our international efforts to permanently put humans on the Moon and Mars.

We now have a world civilization in its infancy. It was partially created by our various and vigorous activities in space. The Space Race was a good investment. The Space Shuttle has done far more international advertising for America than most Americans understand. The International Space Station is extremely valuable in both a political and economic sense. Telescopes on the Moon will be worth their cost. Our odd world civilization needs to grow and become much stronger. Humans cooperating in exploring space will help this baby world civilization to mature and become something that is currently hard to imagine.

Cheers!
"The Moon is the most accessible destination for realizing commercial, exploration and scientific objectives beyond low Earth orbit." - LEAG

Offline JohnFornaro

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Re: A new vision for space exploration
« Reply #13 on: 01/22/2010 04:02 pm »
"We now have a world civilization in its infancy"  All this squabbling over HSF prioritization is small potatoes compared to the squabbling that seems to be accompanying the drift towards a "new world order" or what ever one wants to call it.  Perhaps the defense budgets we now have are absolutely necessary in this process.
Sometimes I just flat out don't get it.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: A new vision for space exploration
« Reply #14 on: 01/22/2010 07:17 pm »
"We now have a world civilization in its infancy"  All this squabbling over HSF prioritization is small potatoes compared to the squabbling that seems to be accompanying the drift towards a "new world order" or what ever one wants to call it.  Perhaps the defense budgets we now have are absolutely necessary in this process.

Don't count on a one-world government. Not even in a hundred years.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline cgrunska

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Re: A new vision for space exploration
« Reply #15 on: 01/22/2010 09:27 pm »
maybe if we find aliens or something

Offline sdsds

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Re: A new vision for space exploration
« Reply #16 on: 01/22/2010 10:08 pm »
the only way we are ever going to get off this rock in any meaningful way is to find a way to make rich people even richer

Yes, exactly.  But use care to avoid defining "rich" too restrictively.  If you allow it to mean both/either "rich in wealth" or "rich in prestige" you have a clear model not only for future HSF motives, but past and present ones as well.

Take a hypothetical example:  suppose all the inhabitants of the first permanently staffed lunar base were descendants of Abd al-Aziz ibn Saud.  Would not then the House of Saud, not to mention Saudi Arabia, enjoy greatly enhanced prestige in the world?  I do not know that culture well, so I can only speculate on what wealth they might be willing to part with to obtain that prestige....
« Last Edit: 01/23/2010 06:37 pm by sdsds »
— 𝐬𝐝𝐒𝐝𝐬 —

Offline HappyMartian

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Re: A new vision for space exploration
« Reply #17 on: 01/23/2010 01:23 pm »
JohnFornaro quoted Happy Martian's observation that, "We now have a world civilization in its infancy" 

JohnFornaro went on to note, "All this squabbling over HSF prioritization is small potatoes compared to the squabbling that seems to be accompanying the drift towards a "new world order" or what ever one wants to call it.  Perhaps the defense budgets we now have are absolutely necessary in this process.


Robotbeat noted, "Don't count on a one-world government. Not even in a hundred years."


There are many kinds of security. A "one-world government" would need everyone to be perfect. The only perfect person was nailed to some wood by some unhappy people. He hung there until he died. That was about 2,000 years ago. Since no perfect humans exist, it would be a very good idea to retain our nation states, imperfect as they may be, as long as we have humans on the planet. And if nations are to exist, then as JohnFornaro noted, "Perhaps the defense budgets we now have are absolutely necessary in this process."

Cooperative efforts in exploring space simply form a valuable supplement to other "War prevention" efforts.


As an additional note, it would seem that our world civilization’s efforts to explore space are going to produce a variety of national and private space vehicles capable of returning people to Earth. Such diversity or redundancy is good. It would seem that that we should also encourage the development of at least three different space vehicle systems that could safely take people to the Lunar surface and return them to at least a low orbit of the Moon. A single system, whether it is a world government or a Lunar Excursion Rocket can leave you in a very embarrassing situation if it fails to perform properly.

When designing "A new vision for space exploration" it is worth remembering two parts of an entry at:   

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murphy’s_law

“Murphy's law is an adage or epigram that is typically stated as: ‘Anything that can go wrong will go wrong.’” And: “A story by Lee Correy in the February 1955 issue of Astounding Science Fiction referred to ‘Reilly's Law,’ which ‘states that in any scientific or engineering endeavor, anything that can go wrong will go wrong.’”

Some of the proposed telescopes on the Moon should be a part of a larger system for finding out more about Near Earth Objects, or NEOs. Their orbits, compositions, and projected futures could be quite useful to know. Being an optimist about NEOs not hitting us seems quite logical, but since we are gambling with more than 6,500,000,000 human lives and all the other current species on the planet Earth, it might be wise to keep this thought in mind, "Anything that can go wrong, will go wrong and at the worst possible moment.."  which is noted at:

http://www.rationality.net/murphy.htm

Cheers!
"The Moon is the most accessible destination for realizing commercial, exploration and scientific objectives beyond low Earth orbit." - LEAG

Offline JohnFornaro

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Re: A new vision for space exploration
« Reply #18 on: 01/23/2010 03:33 pm »
I'm not counting on it.  It seems to be a "drift".
Sometimes I just flat out don't get it.

Offline William Barton

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Re: A new vision for space exploration
« Reply #19 on: 01/23/2010 04:00 pm »
"We now have a world civilization in its infancy"  All this squabbling over HSF prioritization is small potatoes compared to the squabbling that seems to be accompanying the drift towards a "new world order" or what ever one wants to call it.  Perhaps the defense budgets we now have are absolutely necessary in this process.

Don't count on a one-world government. Not even in a hundred years.

I hope you're right. I'm afraid when I wake up from the liquid nitrogen bath, I'll find out I'm a retread citizen of the Walmart Imperium or something. (In one of my early novels, the first World State was a federation of CPSU, the (sorry, need to stop here for a second and just say that I have to use stupid words to get my point across. I know that means I must have a weak argument, but that's why I use bad words)., and GE. Forty years on, the faces and names have changed, but not the spirit of the participants.)

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